【新唐人2013年04月22日讯】四川雅安市庐山县发生的7级地震，据估计，造成龙门乡等多个地区房屋99%损毁﹔而宝兴县与外界彻底失去联系，救援工作难以展开。不少专家指出，这次雅安地震应该是2008年汶川8级地震的余震，美国甚至早在5年前就已经预测“雅安地震”的发生，但大陆官方否认了这一观点。一时间，有关“余震”和“预测”的话题，成为了网路讨论的焦点。
雅安地震后，一场关于这次地震是否是汶川地震余震的争论，在网上激烈展开。中国地震局、四川省地震局、雅安市地震局在接受媒体采访时都表示，雅安地震为独立地震，不是余震。
雅安市地震局：“就专家来说，这个已经不属于5.12汶川地震的余震了。”
但日本、美国以及中国的多位地质学家、和地震专家则一致认为，雅安地震应该属于5.12汶川地震的余震，主要原因是两次地震都处在同一地震带。
四川地矿局区域地质调查队总工程师范晓：“这次地震我个人认为﹕它跟四川地震还是有一定关系的，它应该是属于汶川地震以后，整个龙门山断裂带应力的一个调整，或者你说它是汶川地震的一个余震也可以。”
据了解，这类的争论，5年前汶川地震后也曾发生。
当时争论的话题是﹕“四川地区将来能否发生余震﹖”，当时美国专家曾发表论文说﹕“雅安将会是高危区”。
当时很多专家反驳说﹕“汶川地震已经把几千年积累的应力都释放完了，百年内不会发生强大地震。”
雅安政府声称﹕“从掌握的资料及宏观异常看，雅安市没有发生大地震的可能性。”
但仍有人站出来支持美国专家的预测。
中科院院士，地球物理学家陈运泰表示，五年前就提过，汶川地震不会像当时很多人说的那样朝东北扩散，而是将来在西南处会发生七级左右地震。
对此，四川地矿局区域地质调查队总工程师范晓，当时也发表了同样观点。
四川地矿局区域地质调查队总工程师范晓：“这次地震的话，芦山地震它也是处于龙门山断裂带上，只不过处在南段，那么汶川地震它主要是中段和北段当时发生破裂，在汶川地震以后，实际上龙门山南段的这个区域应该是相对比较危险的，因为它应力的积累没有得到充分的释放。”
陈运泰还透露，他在汶川地震后提交给当局的内部参考中，特别提到汶川西南100公里左右的宝兴一带，可能发生七级左右的强余震。但显然没有得到当局的回应和重视。
为什么中共要坚决否认“雅安地震是汶川地震的余震”呢﹖
有网友认为，如果承认了，就等于承认了这次地震是可以预测出来的，既然可以成功预测，为何中共当局知情不报？更何况，这次雅安地震已经引发了群众对当局地震预警迟钝的不满。
四川雅安市民杨先生：“这个还是做得比较差嘛，感觉。地震前几乎没有预警，地震后防空警报也没有拉响。 在地震前几天，今天听他们说，可能还是有感觉。 ”
到底这次雅安地震有没有提前预测出来﹖百姓很难得出正确结论。但是，地震前发生的几件“古怪事”，却让大家见识到了当局的“未卜先知”﹗
先是在地震发生的前两天，“四川消防总队”举行了7级以上地震的跨区救援演练，更巧的是，消防员身上穿着印有“雅安消防”的四个大字﹔而20号地震当天，成都正好组织了全国骨科专家“抗震救灾学术交流会”﹔更巧的是，业余无线电爱好团体，在地震当天搞起了应急演练，刚集合完毕就地震了……。
这一切真的都是巧合吗？
采访/林莉 编辑/张天宇 后制/周天
The Foreseeing of the Ya’an Earthquake by the Authorities
A 7-magnitude earthquake struck in Lushan county
of Ya’an, Sichuan province.
It is estimated 99% houses were destroyed in several areas.
Baoxing county has been completely cut off from the
outside world, the rescue party has failed to reach there.
Experts said that the Ya’an earthquake was an aftershock of
the 8-magnitude quake that occurred in Wenchuan in 2008.
Five years ago, U.S. experts
warned of the Ya’an earthquake.
Yet, the Chinese Communist Party(CCP) authorities
neglected the advice.
In China, an online heated debate on “aftershock” and
“earthquake prediction” has been sparked,
An online debate on whether Ya’an earthquake was
an aftershock of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake has become heated in China.
Media have reported that the earthquake administration of
Sichuan and Ya’an have all ignored the aftershock advice.
They have said that the Ya’an earthquake
was unrelated to any previous seismic catastrophe.
Ya’an Earthquake Bureau: “Experts don’t think
it was an aftershock of the Wenchuan earthquake.”
However, a number of geologists and seismic experts
in Japan, the U.S. and China hold opposing views.
They view the Ya’an earthquake as a direct aftershock,
following two earthquakes that had previously taken place in the same seismic zone.
Fan Xiao(Chief Engineer): “Personally I think it bore
some relation to the Wenchuan quake.
It’s actually a stress adjustment along
the Mountain Longmen fault zone.
Or you may equally call it an aftershock of
the Wenchuan quake.”
Reportedly, there were similar debates five years ago
after the Wenchuan earthquake.
At the time, the debate focused on the question:
“Will aftershocks happen in Sichuan in the future?”
In the same period, U.S. experts published a paper,
asserting that “Ya’an will be a high-risk area”.
Whilst China’s many experts alleged that
the Wenchuan quake had released the stresses
that had accumulated over thousands of years.
They said that no large earthquakes would occur
in the next 100 years.
CCP Ya’an authorities openly claimed that
“Based on the available information, there is no
likelihood that Ya’an will see big quakes in the future.”
Yet, more people have stood up
to support U.S. experts’ forecast.
According to geophysicist Chen Yuntai, a view was held
five years ago that a 7-magnitude quake would hit the southwest area of Wenchuan.
Fan Xiao Chief Engineer, Sichuan Bureau of
Geology & Minerals, shares this view.
Fan Xiao: “The earthquake that hit Lushan County fell
within the Mountain Longmen fault zone, on its southern section.
Whilst the Wenchuan quake was located on
the middle and northern sections.
After the Wenchuan quake, the fault zone’s
southern section was actually of relatively high risk.
This is because its accumulated stresses
had not been fully released."
Chen Yuntai revealed that after the Wenchuan quake,
he forecasted there would be possible aftershocks nearby.
In a written advice to the CCP authorities,
Chen predicted that around Baoxing County,
100 km away to the southwest of Wenchuan,
there might occur aftershocks of magnitude 7.
It seems that his information has been ignored.
Why have the CCP authorities denied that
the Ya’an earthquake is an aftershock of the Wenchuan quake?
Some netizens commented that if the regime would admit it,
it would prove that the Ya’na earthquake had been predicted.
Then the authorities wouldn’t be able to explain
why they hadn’t informed the pubic beforehand.
in fact, the latest quake has aroused the masses’ discontent
over the hopeless official pre-warning system.
(Ya’an citizen) Mr. Yang: “On this,
their work was terrible.
There was almost no pre-warning,
nor did air-raid sirens sound after the quake.
However, I’ve heard that the authority received
alerts of the earthquake before it happens.”
For the general public, it is hard to know whether
the Ya’an earthquake had been predicted or not.
Yet, several queer things before the quake showed that
the CCP authorities’ “had foreseen what was coming“.
Two days before the quake, Sichuan Fire Brigade held
a rescue drill against earthquakes of magnitude 7 and above.
Coincidently, words on the firefighters’
uniforms were, “Ya’an Fire Rescue”.
On April 20, the day when the quake hit Ya’an,
an academic exchange conference of national
bone specialists was held in Chengdu, Sichuan.
And besides, amateur radio hobby groups staged
a drill on earthquake emergencies.
As soon as the team finished gathering,
the earthquake arrived.
Were all these really just coincidences?
