四川雅安市民楊先生：「這個還是做得比較差嘛，感覺。地震前幾乎沒有預警，地震後防空警報也沒有拉響。 在地震前幾天，今天聽他們說，可能還是有感覺。 」
採訪/林莉 編輯/張天宇 後製/周天
The Foreseeing of the Ya’an Earthquake by the Authorities
A 7-magnitude earthquake struck in Lushan county
of Ya’an, Sichuan province.
It is estimated 99% houses were destroyed in several areas.
Baoxing county has been completely cut off from the
outside world, the rescue party has failed to reach there.
Experts said that the Ya’an earthquake was an aftershock of
the 8-magnitude quake that occurred in Wenchuan in 2008.
Five years ago, U.S. experts
warned of the Ya’an earthquake.
Yet, the Chinese Communist Party(CCP) authorities
neglected the advice.
In China, an online heated debate on “aftershock” and
“earthquake prediction” has been sparked,
An online debate on whether Ya’an earthquake was
an aftershock of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake has become heated in China.
Media have reported that the earthquake administration of
Sichuan and Ya’an have all ignored the aftershock advice.
They have said that the Ya’an earthquake
was unrelated to any previous seismic catastrophe.
Ya’an Earthquake Bureau: “Experts don’t think
it was an aftershock of the Wenchuan earthquake.”
However, a number of geologists and seismic experts
in Japan, the U.S. and China hold opposing views.
They view the Ya’an earthquake as a direct aftershock,
following two earthquakes that had previously taken place in the same seismic zone.
Fan Xiao(Chief Engineer): “Personally I think it bore
some relation to the Wenchuan quake.
It’s actually a stress adjustment along
the Mountain Longmen fault zone.
Or you may equally call it an aftershock of
the Wenchuan quake.”
Reportedly, there were similar debates five years ago
after the Wenchuan earthquake.
At the time, the debate focused on the question:
“Will aftershocks happen in Sichuan in the future?”
In the same period, U.S. experts published a paper,
asserting that “Ya’an will be a high-risk area”.
Whilst China’s many experts alleged that
the Wenchuan quake had released the stresses
that had accumulated over thousands of years.
They said that no large earthquakes would occur
in the next 100 years.
CCP Ya’an authorities openly claimed that
“Based on the available information, there is no
likelihood that Ya’an will see big quakes in the future.”
Yet, more people have stood up
to support U.S. experts’ forecast.
According to geophysicist Chen Yuntai, a view was held
five years ago that a 7-magnitude quake would hit the southwest area of Wenchuan.
Fan Xiao Chief Engineer, Sichuan Bureau of
Geology & Minerals, shares this view.
Fan Xiao: “The earthquake that hit Lushan County fell
within the Mountain Longmen fault zone, on its southern section.
Whilst the Wenchuan quake was located on
the middle and northern sections.
After the Wenchuan quake, the fault zone’s
southern section was actually of relatively high risk.
This is because its accumulated stresses
had not been fully released."
Chen Yuntai revealed that after the Wenchuan quake,
he forecasted there would be possible aftershocks nearby.
In a written advice to the CCP authorities,
Chen predicted that around Baoxing County,
100 km away to the southwest of Wenchuan,
there might occur aftershocks of magnitude 7.
It seems that his information has been ignored.
Why have the CCP authorities denied that
the Ya’an earthquake is an aftershock of the Wenchuan quake?
Some netizens commented that if the regime would admit it,
it would prove that the Ya’na earthquake had been predicted.
Then the authorities wouldn’t be able to explain
why they hadn’t informed the pubic beforehand.
in fact, the latest quake has aroused the masses’ discontent
over the hopeless official pre-warning system.
(Ya’an citizen) Mr. Yang: “On this,
their work was terrible.
There was almost no pre-warning,
nor did air-raid sirens sound after the quake.
However, I’ve heard that the authority received
alerts of the earthquake before it happens.”
For the general public, it is hard to know whether
the Ya’an earthquake had been predicted or not.
Yet, several queer things before the quake showed that
the CCP authorities’ “had foreseen what was coming“.
Two days before the quake, Sichuan Fire Brigade held
a rescue drill against earthquakes of magnitude 7 and above.
Coincidently, words on the firefighters’
uniforms were, “Ya’an Fire Rescue”.
On April 20, the day when the quake hit Ya’an,
an academic exchange conference of national
bone specialists was held in Chengdu, Sichuan.
And besides, amateur radio hobby groups staged
a drill on earthquake emergencies.
As soon as the team finished gathering,
the earthquake arrived.
Were all these really just coincidences?