【禁闻】中共三军同期大军演 攘外?安内?

【新唐人2014年07月30日讯】中共海、陆、空三军正在各地举行罕见的同期大规模军演。海军将在三大海域演习,陆军则在六大军区进行持续三个月的跨军区实弹演习,空军也在华东和华中地区进行军演。中共为什么在当前举行大规模军演呢?请看分析报导。

中共海军最近在渤海、黄海、东海和北部湾海域同期举行军演:7月25号至8月1号,在渤海海峡、黄海北部军演;7月26号至8月1号,则是在北部湾海域进行实弹射击训练;7月29号至8月2号,还将在东海海面举行实弹射击演习。

与此同时,陆军演习时间更长。六大军区开展了持续三个月10场的跨军区实弹演习:从7月15号起,南京、沈阳、广州、北京、成都、济南军区的10支远端火箭弹、炮兵、防空旅进入6个训练基地,持续三个月时间。

同一时期,中共的空军也在华东和华中地区,进行为期26天的军事演练。

目前,华东和华中地区已实行大规模空中管制,至少12个主要机场发生了大规模的取消或延误航班现象。

美国中文杂志《中国事务》主编伍凡指出,中共政治腐败、混乱,造成中国经济下滑,社会也动荡不定。中共唯一能使用的力量就是军队,用军事演习来显示共产党还掌握著政权。

美国中文杂志《中国事务》主编伍凡:“第一个目标是要保护这个政权,保卫这个政权。因为中共自己的政令不畅通、政令不出中南海。在这种状况下,怎么显示出你的政权还在你共产党手上呢?那用军队来显示这个力量。”

伍凡认为,中共还想通过这次军演,掀起一个民族主义、爱国主义的浪潮,把民众的怨声、经济下滑、失业等等问题冲淡,把矛盾转移。同时,向日本、越南、菲律宾等国亮一下肌肉。

实际上,中共这次跨军区的军事演习,已经引发周边国家的疑虑。

美国海军学院教授余茂春认为,这些军演很可能加剧周边国家对中共的恐惧,促使他们联合起来,把中共当成一个共同的威胁点。这给中共在地缘政治的角力中带来适得其反的效果。

而日本各界,对中共在东海海域的军演更是关注。尤其,中共喉舌媒体7月25号,也就是中日“甲午战争”爆发120周年纪念日,还发表文章说:“甲午战争永远是中国人心中无法抹去的痛。面对日本右翼分子的挑衅,我们不打第一枪,但也绝不会让你打第二枪!”

台湾政治大学国际事务学院教授丁树范:“我不觉得跟日本的紧张有关,也(不)跟甲午战争有关。目前中国军队要做一些改革,那么通过这种演习来作为验证,我觉得第一个可能的理由;第二个理由就是说,因为从去年开始,中共军队在反贪腐。”

台湾“政治大学国际事务学院”教授丁树范指出,中共在“6.4镇压”后,为了稳定军心,曾进行大规模的军事演习。而当前的这场军演也是想把军心稳定下来,因为军队反贪造成了人心浮动。

目前军中落马的最高阶官员——前军委副主席徐才厚,今年6被开除党籍,移送司法处理。中共媒体透露,徐才厚主掌军中高层升迁十多年,并自恃有前党魁江泽民作后台,视前任军委主席胡锦涛为无物,大肆在军中安插自己人,卖官发财。

徐才厚落马后,他和被提拔官员间的腐败关系也被部分曝光。例如,徐才厚仅提拔谷俊山做总后副部长,就获得现金4000万人民币、和上海4套别墅豪宅等。

另外媒体还披露,当局曾从徐才厚家中搜出一个未开封的皮箱,箱内装满1000万元人民币,其中还有一份四川省军区前政委、少将叶万勇的个人简历。

丁树范认为,徐才厚提拔的人太多,反腐使那些受他提拔的人,特别是那些给他送钱的人心情浮动,现任军委主席习近平是想通过这次演习,让他们的心稳定下来。

采访/陈汉 编辑/宋风 后制/郭敬

Purpose of Chinese Drills: Threat Abroad or Reassure The Military?

China is holding large-scale exercises of Navy,
People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and Air Force.
Naval exercise will be held in three sea zones;
PLA will exercise across six military regions
for three consecutive months.

Air force will exercise in Eastern and Central China.
What’s the reason that China holds drills?
Let’s take a look.

The naval drills are held in Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea,
East China Sea and Beibu Gulf.
The drills will take place in Bohai Strait, Northern Yellow Sea
from July 25 to August 1.
Firing exercises held from July 26 to August 1
in Northern Gulf water; and
the Eastern Sea firing drills held from July 29 to August 2.

The PLA drills would be the longest.

Six military regions started across region live-fire
exercises 10 times for three-months.
From July 15, ten remote rockets, artillery, air defense brigade
from Nanjing, Shenyang, Guangzhou, Beijing, Chengdu and
Ji’nan have entered into six training bases.

Meanwhile, the Air Force located in East and Central region
of China for a 26-day exercise.

Now air control has launched in East and Central regions.
At least 12 airports had flights cancelled or delayed.

Chris Wu, US-based chief editor of China Affairs magazine
says that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is corrupt and
in chaos.

It has caused a declining economy and social unrest.

The only force the CCP can use is military,
using drills to show its power still in control.

Chris Wu: “The CCP’s first goal is to protect its power.

Because the decree couldn’t be passed smoothly,
there is a saying “decree couldn’t be sent out of Zhongnanhai.”
Under this circumstance, how does the CCP show its power
still in control?
It uses military drills to show strength.”

Chris Wu says that through the drills, the CCP intends
to stir up a wave of patriotism.
In order to divert civilians’ anger from domestic problems,
economic decline, unemployment and more.
At the same time, to show its muscle
to Japan, Vietnam, Philippines and other countries.

Actually, CCP’s military drills have provoked worries
in its neighboring countries.

Yu Maochun, Professor of US Naval Academy comments that
the drills would possibly increase the worries
to its surrounding countries.

It would push these countries to work together,
to consider the CCP as their common threat.
This would bring the opposite results to the CCP
in its political struggle with other countries.

Japan has more concerns about Chinese drills
held in the East Sea region.
The state-run media published an article on July 25,
the date of the 120th anniversary of the First Sino-Japanese War.
The article said that “the war becomes a painful scar
in Chinese people’s mind.
Facing Japanese rightists’ challenges, we won’t shoot the gun first,
but absolutely not allow you to fire the second shot.”

Ding Shufan, Professor of College of International Affairs,
Taiwan: “I neither think the drills link with tensions between
the two countries, nor with Sino-Japanese War.

Now Chinese military need reforms,
so through the exercises to verify it.
I think this is the first reason.

The second reason is that from last year,
the CCP military was fighting corruption.”

Ding Shufan says that after the CCP cracked down students’
protest on June 4, 1989,
it has held a large-scale exercise to reassure soldiers.

The current drills are also to stabilize the military.
Because fight corruption has stirred up people’s mind.

Xu Caihou, the top military official has been dismissed.

He was expelled from the CCP in June and has been
handed over to court.
The state-run media revealed that Xu has controlled
the military’s top level promotion for more than a decade.
He relied on Jiang Zemin’s support, ignoring Hu Jintao,
the former Chairman of military commission.
Xu also promoted his allies in the military,
selling military ranks to gain the wealth.

After Xu Caihou’s downfall, his corruption with military
officials whom he promoted, was partially exposed.
For example, Xu appointed Gu Junshan as a logistic chief,
thus Xu has accepted bribes of 40 million yuan cash and
four luxury apartments in Shanghai.

Media also revealed that the regime has found a leather case
without seals in Xu’s home.
There was 10 million yuan cash in the case.

A personal profile of Ye Wanyong, the former political
commissar of Sichuan military region, was also in the case.

Ding Shufan says that Xu promoted too many people.

The anti-corruption campaign has stirred up the minds
of officials who had been promoted by Xu.

Xi Jinping, the current military leader wants to
reassure the military via the drills.

Interview/ChenHan Edit/ShongFeng Post-Production/GuoJin

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