【新唐人2012年9月19日讯】9月17号，香港《南华早报》报导指称，中共中央组织部部长李源潮是入常的热门人选。报导援引分析人士的话说，因为李源潮特殊的“八九背景”， 如果居于权力高层，将有助于中共正视“八九民运”的历史或“平反六四”。下面和本台记者一起去了解。
一直以来，具有“太子党”、“团派”以及“上海帮”等多重色彩的中组部部长李源潮，被认为是中共十八大入常的热门人选。
香港《南华早报》以“李源潮，政治新星八面玲珑”为题，报导分析李源潮可能会顺利进入中共中央政治局常委，并可能在未来当选为中国（共）国家副主席。
文章指出，李源潮目前执掌中共的“人事控制中心”，也就是“中组部”，使得他和各个政治派系之间的关系得以巩固。
另据报导，李源潮曾高调肯定薄熙来在重庆的政绩，但在重庆事件后，李源潮暗批薄熙来，并帮助团派清理江系余党。
据了解，4年前，薄熙来被贬到重庆，走马上任时，李源潮亲口宣布对薄的任命。而戏剧性的是，4年后，薄熙来的政治生涯走到了尽头，宣布薄被免职的，也是李源潮。
另外，在“八九民运”时，李源潮在团中央就职，他所管辖的报纸《中国青年报》，曾刊登同情学生的文章，并有报社记者联名向中共请愿，李源潮被指认，态度不够强硬，他的仕途在“八九民运”后，曾一度受到阻碍。
《南华早报》引述原《中国青年报》资深记者、《冰点》周刊主编李大同的分析，说，正是因为李源潮，及其他一些团派执政者的这个特定历史背景，如果他们居于权力高层，将有助于中共正视“八九民运”的历史或“平反六四”。
对此，独立评论员韩武认为，李源潮入常可能性很大，但是，是否会平反“六四”，他表示：不乐观。
独立评论员韩武：“因为他平反‘六四’不仅仅涉及到中共的一个态度问题，实际上是涉及到它的一个政治改革的一个信号的问题，像这么重大的政治问题，一上台就要搞什么‘六四’的平反呀，这些什么政改的口号，都是不现实的，首先会用1到两年稳定他的班子。”
李大同也认为，无论是习近平还是李源潮，或是中共执政者中的任何个体，凭一人之力，无法直接推动政改，中共如果实施政改也将阻力重重，所以在十八大权力交接后的第一个任期内，习近平应该是以稳定大局为主，不会有大的动作。
“北京语言文化大学”86级学生张前进，曾因“六四事件”被中共判以“反革命宣传煽动罪”，处两年徒刑，他对《新唐人》表示，对平反“六四”这个议题的本身，他非常不赞成。
“北京语言文化大学”86级学生张前进：“中共执政党，它本来用非法的手段来上台的，它有什么资格来给我们平反这个说法。原来寄托在温家宝的身上，说他比较开明，现在又要寄托在什么李源潮的身上？我觉得我们的思维，还是要脱离这个老的这种条条框框。”
张前进进一步分析说，现在的中国老百姓，也盼望自己的国家能够强大起来，但是，目前最大的拦阻不是经济、GDP增长的问题，而是中共这个独裁体制的问题。
张前进：“像中东茉莉花革命这样 ，当整个人民都起来以后，那他必须要正视人民的声音和力量，那就不是来祈求他来给我们一个什么评价，一个什么平反，这是我的一个认识。”
不过，中共是否会利用“平反六四”这件事情，来换取民心？张前进认为，目前中共的危机，已接近恶变的临界点，为了稳固政权，中共可能会做出一些顺应历史潮流的事情。
采访编辑/常春 后制/王明宇
Li Yuanchao To Rehabilitate June 4 Pro-democracy Event?
On September 17, Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post
reported, Li Yuanchao, Minister of the Organization Dep. of
the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee is
a popular candidate for the Politburo Standing Committee.
The report quoted analysts as saying, due to Li’s significant
involvement in the 1989 pro-democracy movement,
if he takes the position, it may be helpful for the CCP to face up
to the history of the 1989 event or even rehabilitate June 4.
Please see the following reports.
For a long time, Li Yuanchao, Minister of the Organization
Department of the CCP’s Central Committee has been
a popular candidate for the Politburo Standing Committee.
Li Yuanchao has been defined in many shades: “Princeling”,
“Communist Youth League faction” and “Shanghai Gang”.
Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post published an article
with the title: “Li Yuanchao, A Flexible Political Star”.
Reports say Li may enter the Politburo Standing Committee
smoothly and take the position of CCP vice president.
Reports say Li Yuanchao currently controls the CCP
personnel center—the Central Committee Organization Dep.
The position requires him to consolidate the relationships
between the various political factions and himself.
Reports say Li Yuanchao gave a high-profile remark praising
Bo Xilai’s achievements, but after the Chongqing event,
Li turned to criticize Bo and helped the Communist
Youth League (CYL) faction to clean Jiang Zemin’s rear end.
It is understood that, 4 years ago, Bo Xilai was demoted to
Chongqing and Li Yuanchao had announced the appointment.
Li Yuanchao had also announced the removal of Bo Xilai
recently, when Bo’s political career came to a dramatic end.
Moreover, Li had been in the 1989 CYL Central committee
and at that time, was managing China Youth Daily,
which published articles to sympathize with the students
in their 1989 pro-democracy movement.
There were also China Youth Daily reporters who had sent
joint petitions to the CCP in support of the movement.
Afterwards, the CCP leaders criticized Li’s attitude as being
“not tough enough” and Li’s political career was hampered.
South China Morning Post quoted an analysis by Li Datong,
China Youth Daily’s former senior reporter
and editor of Freezing point Weekly.
Li Datong analysed, it is precisely because of the history of
Li Yuanchao and other CYL faction rulers that,
if they would take senior power, they may help the CCP to face up to the
1989 pro-democracy movement or even rehabilitate June 4.
Independent commentator Han Wu thinks, in this regard,
there is a big opportunity for Li Yuanchao to enter into the
Politburo Standing Committee, but as for rehabilitating June 4 Han is not optimistic.
[Han Wu, Commentator]: “As for rehabilitating June 4,
it is something not only related to the CCP’s attitude, but also with political reform.
As for these kinds of important political issues,
it is unrealistic for Li Yuanchao to rehabilitate June 4
and start political reform as soon as he takes his position;
I think he will spend 1 or 2 years stabilizing his team.”
Li Datong also thinks, whether it is Xi Jinping, Li Yuanchao,
or other CCP rulers, a single person could not start a political
reform; there’s sure to be heavy resistance against a reform.
Therefore, in the first term after the power transfer of the 18th
CCP National Congress, Xi Jinping may focus on stability —he’s unlikely to take any drastic moves.
Zhang Qianjin was a student of Beijing Language and Culture
University in 1986, who was then sentenced by the CCP as a
“counter-revolutionary” and for “propaganda and incitement”
receiving a 2-year prison sentence after the June 4 movement.
Zhang Qianjin said to NTDTV that he strongly opposed
the CCP’s wording vindicating the June 4 event.
[Zhang Qianjin, Jailed 1986 Student, Beijing]: “The CCP
just used illegal means to gain power, so it does not qualify to rehabilitate us.
In the past, we put our hope into Wen Jiabao as he seemed to
be progressive; now we should start relying on Li Yuanchao?
—I think we should get rid of this idea.”
Zhang Qianjin analyses further that, nowadays,
Chinese people also hope their country would be better.
However, the biggest barrier is not China’s economy
or the GDP growth, but the CCP’s dictatorship.
[Zhang Qianjin]: “Just like the Jasmine Revolution in China,
once all people would join a movement,
the CCP would have to face the people’s voice and strength.
By that time, we would not need to ask the CCP to give us
a review or vindicate us—this is my opinion.”
However, will the CCP rehabilitate June 4 in exchange for
getting the people’s support?
Zhang Qianjin thinks, the CCP’s crisis is close to reaching
the critical point;
the CCP may take action following its historical trends,
in order to solidify its regime.
