【新唐人2014年08月08日訊】有關中共高層將如何處置周永康，成為觀察中國時局走向的焦點。周永康案件，是否將比照中共前重慶市委書記薄熙來的處理模式「去政治化」﹖或是提高級別，甚至有可能放周一馬﹖一起來看看專家的分析。
前《中國改革》雜誌社社長李偉東，8月2號在紐約的一個時政討論會上，就周永康案件後續的各種問題，發表了他的分析和評論。
《美國之音》6號引述李偉東的分析，報導表示，中共高層將如何處置周永康？仍存在很大變數，但有兩種可能，就是黨紀、黨籍處分，和走司法途徑。而走司法途徑的可能性比較高。他說，如果走司法程序，一定會「去政治化」處理。會參照薄熙來案，最後可能僅限於他個人的貪腐和其他刑事犯罪。「最多提升一個級別，判處死緩」。
也就是說，有關周永康與薄熙來密謀取代習近平，自己做「太上皇」的政變傳聞，和他十年「維穩」政策中犯下的各種公共暴行，不會被擺上檯面加以清算。
時事評論員藍述指出 ，反腐當然是習近平必需做的一件事情，因為官員全面、深刻的腐化，已經威脅到了中共的生存，但還有其他的原因。
時事評論員藍述﹕「一個原因就是，中國社會它處在中共建政以來，過去60幾年裡面黨民矛盾最尖銳時期，對於北京高層來講，他要坐很長的位子，他就要平民憤。周永康為甚麼被抓，就是政法系統在整個過去的十幾年裡面，暴力維穩，他是走在最前面的，是全社會憤怒的對像，這是他要打擊政法系—周永康，一個很主要的原因。」
藍述說，抓「周老虎」還有一個來自於國際的原因。
藍述﹕「在過去這兩年裡面，國際社會對中共活體摘取器官這件事情，譴責聲浪現在達到前所未有的高度。中共現在要跟國際社會做生意，全球經濟一體化，經濟搞不好，權力就坐不穩。這種情況之下怎麼面對來自於國際上的聲討。不是整治黨內的腐敗他就能夠解決的問題。」
李偉東說，對周永康的刑事指控，可能有三大犯行﹕「一是給黑社會提供保護傘，如：四川劉漢 ，二是受賄或直接獲取非法經濟利益，三是涉嫌僱兇殺妻。」而最嚴重的指控罪名，可能是「建國以來最大的涉黑貪腐集團首犯」。
另外，李偉東提出，中共現任領導人習近平「反腐的總目標」，是去掉前黨魁江澤民這個所謂的「太上皇」。而「如果周永康背後最有力的支持者——江澤民和曾慶紅，仍有與習近平博弈能力的話﹔或習近平考慮到黨的面子，或權力穩固度及其他不為我們所知的種種因素，最後可能會放周一馬。」
旅美政論家伍凡﹕「過去像李鵬、賈慶林這些更大的老虎，你怎麼打﹖江也好、曾也好，他們會心甘情願把所有的權力交出來嗎﹖交出來後他們能得到安全保障嗎﹖這都未定數﹗我認為共產黨的這種派系鬥爭跟路線鬥爭沒那麼簡單，因為你不知道你放了他以後，他再回頭來把你咬死，你怎麼辦﹖所以還會鬥爭。這個派系鬥爭的一派全部消滅了才能安心。」
旅美政論家伍凡分析，中共專制體制不變，將有打不完的「大老虎」。
旅美政論家伍凡﹕「反腐敗根本就是反不了貪污份子的，不斷的產生，因為體制架構在那裏。因為你是權貴資本主義，你要靠這個權來運作資本主義，有權就有錢，裡面貪污就出來了，所以他只能打最大的，打了最大以後，又達不到想救共產黨、救政權的目地。」
藍述分析，繼周永康被立案調查以後，中共高層還會繼續抓捕下一只「大老虎」，至於會不會抓到江澤民，大眾可以拭目以待。
採訪/朱智善 編輯/周平 後製/周天
Will Zhou Yongkang’s Case Get Depoliticized?
Since the CCP publicized the investigation of former Politburo
Standing Committee, Zhou Yongkang, how his case will be
handled has become the focus of current China affairs.
Will his case be dealt with like how Bo Xilai was treated, i.e.
depoliticized?
Will his alleged crimes be treated at a higher level or even
be dismissed?
Please see the experts’ analyses.
Former CCP’s China Reform magazine director Li Weidong
delivered his analysis and comments on Zhou’s case in a forum
in New York on August 2.
Voice of America reported Li Weidong’s analysis.
He believes that changes could occur as to how the Central will
handle Zhou Yongkang.
However, there are two possibilities.
One is to punish him with party rules and expel him from the
CCP, and the other is to prosecute him through the legal system.
It is said the legal proceeding is highly likely.
Zhou Yongkang’s case will be handled depoliticized,
like how Bo Xilai’s case was handled.
The crime is limited to his personal corruption and other criminal
acts. “At most it is elevated to a higher level such as reprieve."
In other words, the conspiracy of Zhou Yongkang and Bo Xilai
to oust Xi Jinping,
and his public atrocities during the ten years maintenance of
stability, will not be put on the table for liquidation.
Commentator Lan Su indicates that Xi Jinping will surely carry
out the anti-corruption,
which is deep enough to threaten the CCP’s ruling. But, there are
also other reasons.
Lan Su: “One of the reasons is: The society is at the most
critical time of conflict between the party and the people
since the founding of the CCP.
To the Beijing authorities, the sustenance of their ruling depends
on easing the resentment.
Zhou Yongkang was arrested because he was at the front of the
politics and law commission over the past decade.
His brutal stability maintenance has become the target of
public anger.
This is one of the main reasons why Xi will hit the politics and
law commission and Zhou Yongkang."
Lan Su explains the other reason comes from the
international pressure.
Lan Su: “In the past two years, the condemnation of the live
organ harvesting has reached the highest point in the
international community.
The CCP’s power relies on international trade and economy.
Under such a condition, it needs to deal with the international
condemnation.
The anti-graft campaign in the domestic will not solve
this problem."
Li Weidong explained the three possible criminal charges
against Zhou Yongkang:
“One – for providing an umbrella for the triad (such as Liu Han
of Sichuan Province); Two is for accepting illegal bribery or illegal
enrichment; Three is suspected of incitement to murder his wife."
The most severe accusation might be:
“The biggest corruption culprit since the founding of the regime."
Li Weidong also explained that Xi Jinping’s “overall goal
of fighting corruption” is to remove the former leader
Jiang Zemin, the so-called “overlord."
And “If Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong, the most powerful
supporters behind Zhou Yongkang, can still afford the game
with Xi Jinping;
or if Xi Jinping takes into account the party’s face, or the concrete
ruling power or any other unknown factors, Zhou Yongkang could
finally get loose."
US-based political commentator Wu Fan: “The even bigger
tigers such as Li Peng and Jia Qinglin, how can they be hit?
Will Jiang Zemin or Zeng Qinghong be willing to give up on
all their power?
How can they get security after giving up on power?
Everything is uncertain!
I don’t think this factional struggle within the CCP is so simple.
If someone is let off, you have no idea when he will turn back
and bite you.
The struggle will continue until the opponent is completely
wiped out."
Wu Fan analyzes there will be endless tigers within the CCP.
Wu Fan: “The anti-corruption will not handle the corrupt
elements, which will only continue to exist in the CCP system.
The crony capitalism relies on the power to operate the
capitalists, who are entitled to the money, which give rise
to corruption.
So, only the biggest one will get hit, but,
it won’t save the CCP or the ruling regime."
Lan Su believes after the downfall of Zhou Yongkang,
the CCP Central will continue the campaign with the next tiger.
As for Jiang Zemin, it is yet to see about his fate.
Interview/Zhu Zhishan Edit/ZhouPing Post-Production/ZhouTian
