【新唐人2014年01月25日訊】大陸央行21號破天荒的注入資金3700多億元人民幣，引起了國際輿論對中國「錢荒」的高度關注。北京《國情內參》期刊首席研究員鞏勝利，和美國「紐約城市大學」經濟學教授陳志飛博士，為觀眾解讀中國發生「錢荒」的原因。下面請看本臺記者唐音的採訪報導。
21號，央行開展了「2550億逆回購」，其中750億7天逆回購，1800億21天逆回購。創下了約11個月來的新高。而20號，央行已經通過常備借貸便利(SLF)，向大型商業銀行提供短期流動性資金，總計1200億元人民幣。
「逆回購」是指央行向一級交易商購買有價證券，向市場注資增加貨幣的供應量。
央行的這些前所未有的大動作，引起了世界媒體如美國《華爾街日報》、和「美國有線電視《CNN》」對中國「錢荒」的關注。
北京《國情內參》期刊首席研究員鞏勝利分析，央行巨額資金注入以防「錢荒」，和國際上美國加速收回美元有關。
鞏勝利：「美國的寬鬆貨幣政策已經大規模的收縮了，那美元一收回，貨幣市場就沒錢用了，市場上那要其他貨幣來填進去，影響最大的可能就是中國。昨天是很嚇人的， 在中國的歷史上從來沒有的，被《路透社》稱作是『血雨腥風』的一天。」
美國紐約城市大學經濟學教授陳志飛博士分析，美國的經濟基本已經走出低谷，所以美國聯邦儲備銀行決定取消寬鬆政策。而美國一收回美元，很可能造成人民幣匯率走低。
20號，上海銀行間同業拆放利率（Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate，Shibor）近乎普遍上漲，業界一片驚呼：大陸「錢荒」有捲土重來之勢。
而股市由於貨幣市場利率的上升遭到重創。上證指數跌破2000點大關，創下近6個月來的最低水平。
央行的「逆回購」消息一出，令銀行間市場相當興奮，銀行間7天回購利率21號下跌到5.5%，比20號的7.5%有顯著下降。大陸的貨幣市場利率也迅速恢復平穩。
美國紐約城市大學經濟學教授陳志飛：「央行現在主要是解燃眉之急，它並沒有一個具體的策略，要長期的對市場、對經濟進行寬鬆。這說明中國的經濟是非常脆弱的，央行也知道它沒法長期承擔那麽大的風險，只能是短線的、杯水車薪的方式。」
對於這次大規模注入資金，官方聲稱是為加強銀行體系的流動性。「北京大學光華管理學院金融與證券研究中心」主任曹鳳岐向媒體指出，從現實需求來看，貨幣不發會出現「錢荒」。而大規模的發貨幣，只能說明資金的利用效率越來越差。
業內人士估計，21天逆回購跨越中國新年，可以充足保證過年前的資金供應，對於「錢荒」的憂慮可以暫歇。但「逆回購」在中國新年後一到期，仍面臨資金回籠的可能性，並不代表貨幣政策轉向寬鬆。
陳志飛認為，不僅在中國新年後不容樂觀，而且更大的憂慮來自中國經濟的結構性問題。
陳志飛：「在經濟危機之後，中央政府向民間撒放了大量的錢，那這個錢都被投放到了效益非常低的、回報是負值的房地產、基建項目上。因為這些債務現在到期了，這些基建項目效益不好，像高鐵，這些都是賠錢的，那麽這些債務問題就造成了錢荒。而且借貸方主要是中央和地方各級政府。」
《CNN》電視臺21號的報導說，分析家擔憂，新的信貸不再產生強大的經濟回報，不斷膨脹的借貸，可能還會削弱經濟增長。報導還說，央行週期性的允許利率大幅上升，之後再注入現金緩解信貸緊縮，是在危險的踩鋼絲。
採訪編輯/唐音 後製/葛雷
“Money Shortage” in China Leads to Worldwide Attention
Anchor: On Jan. 21, the mainland’s central bank injected an
unprecedented amount of funding
with more than 370 billion RMB.
This action attracted international media attention towards
China’s “money shortage”.
Hong Shengli, the lead researcher of Guo Qing Nei Can journal
in Beijing, and Dr. Chen Zhifei, a professor of economics at
the City University of New York, will explain the reasons
for the shortage of money.
Please watch the report from NTD TV reporter Tang Yin.
Reporter: On Jan. 21, the Central Bank launched the “255
billion yuan ($42 billion) reverse repurchase agreements”,
including 75 billion 7 day reverse repurchase agreements and
180 billion 21 day reverse repurchase agreements, which hit
a new high position within around 11 months.
Until Jan. 20, the Central Bank had already provided
120 billion yuan in short-term liquidity to large commercial
banks by using the standing lending facility (SLF).
“Reverse Repurchase” agreements means the central bank
increased the supply of money to the market by buying
securities from primary dealers.
These unprecedented large actions from the central bank caused
media attention on China’s money shortage issue,
which included the Wall Street Journal and CNN.
Gong Shengli, the lead researcher of the Guo Qing Nei Can
journal in Beijing analyzed that the huge amounts of money
injected by the Central bank in China is related to the
accelerating recovery of the U.S. dollar in the United States.
The Central bank in China plans to prevent the money shortage.
Gong Shengli: There is a massive contraction on the loose
monetary policy in USA.
If the dollar were to recover, there wouldn』t be enough money
in the money market.
China will be greatly affected as other currencies on the
market may fill in.
Dr. Chen Zhifei, the professor of economics at the
City University of New York analyzed that the U.S. economy
has bottomed out.
Therefore, the United States Federal Reserve Bank decided to
cancel the loose monetary policy.
If the U.S. dollar has recovered, the RMB exchange rate
could be lowering.
On Jan. 20, the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate
(Shibor) rose universally.
The industry exclaimed, “money shortage has come back”.
The stock market was hit due to the rise in market rates.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell below the 2,000 points mark,
which is its lowest level in nearly six months.
After the reverse repos news came out, the inter-bank
market got quite excited.
The interbank seven-day repo rate fell to 5.5% on Jan. 21,
which is a significant decline by comparing it with the 7.5%
drop on Jan. 20.
The money market rates have stabilized quickly.
Chen Zhifei: The central bank has focused on
the main urgent needs.
There is no specific strategy for long-term markets,
including easing the economy.
It shows that China’s economy is very fragile.
The central bank also knows that it can not bear such
a long-term risk.
The only way is to provide short-term support.
For this massive injection of funds, the official claims is, that
the target is to strengthen the liquidity of
the banking system.
Cao Fengqi, the director of the Finance and Securities
Research Center of Guanghua School of Management at
Peking University, pointed out that according to a practical
demands, the money shortage could happen without
the massive currency.
The massive currency issued shows the efficiency of capital
utilization is getting worse.
The industry insiders estimate that 21 day reverse repos
stretch across the Chinese New Year, which could be sufficient
to ensure the supply of funds over the year and pause
the money shortage worries.
However, the reverse repos will expire after
the Chinese New Year.
There is still a possibility of capital return.
It does not mean that loose monetary policy
will be shifted.
Chen Zhifei believed that it is not optimistic with the
situation after the Chinese New Year.
Besides, there could be bigger worries according to
China’s economic structural problems.
Chen Zhifei: After the economic crisis, the central
government provided a lot of money, which has been invested
in real estate and infrastructure projects with very low
or negative returns.
These debts are going to expire and these infrastructure
projects, such as high-speed railway, are losing money.
Then these debt problems caused a shortage of money.
The lenders are mainly the central and local governments.
According to the report from CNN TV on Jan. 21, analysts are
worried that the new credit may no longer generate
strong economic returns.
The ballooning of borrowing may also
undermine economic growth.
The reports also mentioned that the central bank allows a
significant increase in interest rates periodically.
Then the next step will be the re-injection of cash to ease
the credit crunch.
It is a dangerous step along the wire.
Interview & Edit/TangYin Post-Production/Gelei
