旅美政論家伍凡:「 第一，雙方都沒有準備好。日本老百姓也不想打仗。中國老百姓想打仗嗎？也不想打仗，中國老百姓想打仗的真正目地是把中共搞垮。 再一個，美國更不願意打仗。美國國庫欠了17億兆的錢，哪有力量打仗呢？但是美國又不得不出面，它支持日本的目地就是要制止戰爭，不讓那個戰爭打起來。所以中國（中共）有一批人想玩把戲。」
採訪/陳漢 編輯/王子琦 後製/李勇
Will Abrupt Tensions in the East China Sea Lead to War?
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) suddenly and unilaterally
declared a Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East
China Sea, which has added to recent tensions in the area.
The U.S., Japan and South Korea
disregard the CCP’s new zone.
Military aircraft from these three countries “safely” flew
the area from time to time, which forced the CCP to lodge
so called “solemn representations”.
Despite the prior strict warning, followed by a low tone
and pointless statement, the CCP has been widely mocked
by Chinese netizens.
Some critics agree that the CCP’s actions in this area
have irritated Japan, the U.S. and other countries.
Will the area see violent conflict in the end?
Let’s hear the experts’ analysis.
Last weekend, when the CCP declared an ADIZ
in the East China Sea, the military said in a high tone
that it would shoot down any foreign aircraft that fail to follow
the ADIZ regulation for the area.
However, South Korean, Japanese and U.S. military planes
consecutively entered into the CCP designated ADIZ
without any risk of interception.
Under the ridicule and watchful eyes and of the public ,
the CCP kept silent a long time, pretending nothing happened,
and then made a low-key response.
The military and the Foreign Affair Ministry clarified,
they ‘made a full journey monitoring and timely identification
on the U.S. bombardment aircraft, and knew the aircraft type,’
but without the ruthless words such as “shoot down”
or “emergency defense measures”.
On November 28, the CCP military said a series of their major
aircraft types have been dispatched to the ADIZ
for so-called “normalized air patrolling”.
Meanwhile, Reuters reported that during the escalating ADIZ
dispute, the first CCP’s aircraft carrier “Liaoning” voyaged
to the South China Sea via the Taiwan Strait without detouring
on the Bass Strait, which avoided the disputed East China Sea.
On November 29, Taiwan’s Central News Agency cited CNN
reports that American aircraft carrier George Washington
arrived in the Pacific region just to the south of Okinawa to
join in a large-scale joint war exercise with Japan.
Because this region is very close to the ADIZ,
the war exercise is particularly highlighted.
Many are wondering if war will erupt in the East China Sea.
Shi Shi, China expert: “This time the CCP outraged the public.
Under such a circumstance, I think war won’t break out.
Why? Just look at the CCP Defense Ministry’s response.
The Ministry gave a very weak reaction after U.S. military
aircraft entered the ADIZ, showing that they don’t want to
escalate the event, or there is no conclusion in its inside.
So under this circumstance, even if South Korean or Japanese
aircraft entered the ADIZ, there won’t be a problem.”
Chinese political commentator Wu Fang living in U.S.
says war would be difficult to break out for two key reasons.
Wu Fang: “First, both of the parties are not well prepared.
Japanese people don’t want to fight a war.
Do you think Chinese people want to fight one?
They don’t either.
Chinese peoples’ real goal of supporting war is the CCP’s collapse.
Secondly, Americans prefer even more not to fight a war.
The total debt of American Government has reached 17
trillion dollars, and they have no power to fight.
But America must stand up, and its purpose of supporting
Japan is to stop war.
The CCP has a number of people who want to play a game.”
The Chinese version of US-based Epoch Times News Website
reports that the ADIZ event exposes the turmoil status
among high ranks of the CCP following the third plenum.
Previously, Chinese rights defense lawyer Teng Biao said that
the CCP regime needs an enemy.
Thus even if there is no resistance,
the CCP will have to produce enemy.
Chinese expert Shi Shi says a key sign of a Sino-Japan war
is to see if the commercial Japanese flights are forced to land
when passing through the ADIZ without prior notice.
Shi Shi: “This is a very important signal. From it,
the determination of the CCP will be revealed.
If commercial flights can be made between China and Japan
without forced landing by military aircraft,
then this explains that the ADIZ is purely a trial.”
During the routine media news conference held on the 27th by
the CCP’s Foreign Affairs Ministry, one journalist asked if
China worries that the ADIZ is just a “paper tiger”
in light of the current actions of the U.S. and Japan.
Ministry spokesman Qin Gang replied that “paper tiger”
had a special meaning, and suggested looking up what
the “Paper Tiger” mentioned by Mao Zedong referred to.
Qin Gang said at another press conference on the 28th that
China lodged a “Solemn Representation” to Japan and the U.S.
But it incurred a lot of ridicule, leaving the impression that the
CCP is only good at “Maintaining Stability” in China
and being “all talk and no action” outside China.
Voice of America cited reports mocking the CCP as a living
image of the “Paper Tiger”.
And with that the term became popular worldwide overnight.