【新唐人2013年08月06日讯】中共当局发布的7月份制造业资料出现小幅上扬。然而，由汇丰银行（HSBC）同一时间发布的独立调查则显示，采购经理人指数（PMI）呈现下跌，中国制造商面临的商业环境显着恶化。分析指出，制造业的萎缩无疑会对以出口导向型的中国经济打击很大。请看报导。
英国《金融时报》报导，汇丰银行8月1号发布的中国7月份采购经理人指数（PMI）从前一个月的48.2跌至7月份的47.7，为11个月来的最低水准。
《法国国际广播电台》引述英国《路透社》的报导说，中国7月份的产出指数连续第二个月处在50下方，并创下10个月最低水准﹔新订单的指数创下11个月最低位。
调查还显示，大陆国内外市场状况均转弱，导致需求放缓。出口商反映来自欧洲、东南亚和美国的新订单量全部环比下降。
然而，在同一时间，中共却公布PMI指数从6月份的50.1增长到50.3。
制造业采购经理人指数是衡量经济发展的一个指标，超过50表示经济膨胀，低于50表示经济收缩。
澳新银行首席中国经济学家刘利刚表示，中共发布的PMI似乎有些失真，这可能会延误政策调整时机，导致决策失误。
中国金融智库研究员巩胜利：“全球联合国成员国198个，像中国这样的国家不超过4个，就是党也纳入国家的成本预算，也背在老百姓的头上，这和所有法制国家来比的话，它就无缘无故的多出一块。”
巩胜利指出，中国不仅党政双重运行，而且7级构架制，远多于美英法等国家的3到4级架构，导致行政成本大大提高﹔再加上国有企业的垄断，无形中都抬高了商品的价格。
巩胜利还表示，以美国主导的亚太自由贸易区和欧美自由贸易区，从今年10月实施后，还会对中国的出口造成更加致命的冲击。
早在2009年，北京大学光华管理学院院长、经济学家张维迎指出，2008年中国出口占GDP的比重显然过高，达到了37％。
《法新社》引述汇丰银行专家表示，中国制造业7月份面临的经济形势明显恶化：需求持续不振，新订单减少速度加快，就业岗位的减少的速度也是2009年3月份以来所未见的。
美国南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院教授谢田指出，全世界都知道中国产品是廉价、劣质的产品的代名词，如果中共不保护智慧财产权、不限制仿冒产品，就不可能有自己的核心技术和高精尖的产品，就不能从制造业大国转向技术型大国，就无法走出当前的困境。
巩胜利： “中国的货币现在投放量之大，它的出口依然在萎缩，还有中国的三驾马车——投资、消费和出口，除了投资以外，其他的都拉不动，这种结果可以想像而知。”
巩胜利认为，中共破坏了中国传统的人文规范，目前经济运行的品质、商品品质以及人文道德标准都位列世界最低行列。他指出，今年6月20号出现的钱荒绝不是偶然的，中国经济还要出大事，已经到了严峻期。
日前，一位叙利亚女孩手拿标语：“中国（共），你们的道德比你们的产品还垃圾”，以示对中共政权的抗议。
美国南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院教授谢田：“中共越来越不得民心，在丧失民意的基础上，实际上全社会的愤怒不满、憎恨的情绪越来越严重，官民之间的对立越来越重。而经济在其中可能起一个导火索的作用，会引发中国社会的不稳定。”
巩胜利也指出，如果“习李党政”不改革，改变“党在政府之上”的现状，苏联的结局就是中共的结局！
采访/陈汉 编辑/宋风 后制/周天
Decline Of China’s Manufacturing Activity Affirms A Deteriorating Economy
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) reported a small
improvement in China’s manufacturing activity in July.
At the same time HSBC’s independent survey reported
a drop in China’s Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI).
This indicated that “Chinese manufacturers have to
face a notably worse business environment”.
Analysts comment that the decline of manufacturing activity
is definitely a great shock to China’s export-oriented economy.
Let’s see the following report.
According to the Financial Times’ report,
HSBC announced on Aug 1st that
China’s PMI of July dropped from June’s 48.2 to
47.7, reaching its lowest level in the recent 11 months.
Radio France Internationale (RFI) also quoted
a Reuters report that,
China’s output index declined to 10-month low and
remained in contraction for a second month;
the new orders sub-index also fell to its lowest level
in 11 months.
The survey also suggested that the market demand for China’s
product had become weaker both inside and outside China.
Exporters reported that the order numbers from Europe,
Southeast Asia and the United States had all dropped compared
to the same period of last year.
With all this being reported overseas, in the meantime the
CCP reported a PMI increase from June’s 50.1 to July’s 50.3.
PMI is an indicator of economic development.
If the number is over 50, there is an improvement in economic
activities, and a number below 50 suggests a decline.
ANZ Banking Group’s Chief Economist of Greater China Liu
Ligang said the CCP’s official PMI was likely to be distorted;
This might lead to mistakes in decisions such as missing
the right time to make policy adjustment.
Gong Shengli, researcher at a Chinese financial think-tank:
”Among 198 United Nations member states in the world,
no more than four states are the same as China in
incorporating the party’s cost into the national budget.
This burden is applied over the Chinese people.
Compared to other states’ legal systems,
this is an additional cost for no reason at all.”
Gong Shengli commented that,
besides the dual party-and-administration system,
China also has seven tiers in its administrative structure,
much more than that of Britain or France which only have between three and four tiers.
This results in a much higher administrative cost.
Along with the monopoly of state-owned companies,
all these invisibly raise prices of Chinese products.
Gong further said, after the US-oriented plan of free trade
area of the Asia-Pacific and Europe-America starts in October,
China’s export would face a more deadly shock.
Back in 2009, Zhang Weiying, Chinese economist and head of
the Guanghua School of Management at Beijing University,
pointed out that export was a significantly high proportion
of 37% in China’s GDP of 2008.
An AFP report quoted an HSBC bank expert that
China’s manufacturing industry was obviously seeing
a worse economic environment in July: market demand continues to be weak.
Dropping of order numbers becomes steeper; the number of
job opportunities also drops at a highest rate since March 2009.
Xie Tian, Professor of Aiken Business School,
University of South Carolina, stated that
Chinese products were known by the whole world
as being cheap and of low-quality.
If the CCP continues to ignore protecting intellectual
property rights and striking at counterfeit products,
it will never develop its own core technology and
high-tech products.
China will never be able to convert into a technology-
oriented state from a manufacturing-oriented state.
China will remain trapped in the current dilemma.
Gong Shengli: ”Despite the huge amount of money printed
by the CCP, China’s export is still declining.
Among the three driving forces of China’s economy of
fixed asset investments, retail sales and exports,
only the first one is stimulated and there is no improvement
for the other two. You can imagine what the results will be.”
Gong Shengli believes that, the CCP has destroyed
China’s traditional cultural norms.
Currently, the qualities of its economic operation, products
and moral standards are all among the worst in the world.
Gong said, China’s “money shortage” occurring
on June 20th was in no way an accident.
Some big things will happen to China’s economy and
now it has reached the critical moment.
Weeks ago, a photo showed a Syrian girl with a slogan saying
“China (the CCP), your morality is worse than your products”.
This was a protest against the CCP’s government.
Professor Xie Tian: ”The CCP is becoming increasingly
unpopular among Chinese people.
So grudges and resentment continue to accumulate
in the entire society.
This is leading to worse conflicts between
the government and the people.
Economic factors can be the blasting fuse to cause
further instability of Chinese society.”
Gong Shengli made a concluding remark that,
if Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang don’t reform to change
the current situation of “party over government”,
the CCP will end the same way as the Soviet Union.
