【禁闻】外汇损失惊人 中共做傻事?

【新唐人2011年5月7日讯】中国的外汇储备规模巨大,近年来更是急剧增加。大陆国家发改委专家最近撰文指出,大陆央行所持外汇资产的损失极为惊人,外汇分流非常紧迫。分析人士认为,人民币需要尽快国际化和自由兑换,中共坚持购买巨额外债,以及现行的外汇管理体制让民众苦不堪言。

大陆国家发改委经济研究所财政金融室主任张岸元,日前撰文指出,央行所持外汇资产的损失极为惊人,如果将每年的外汇储备增量,以当年人民币兑美元的平均汇率计算换汇成本,再以升值后不同的汇率水平计算汇率成本,截至去年(2010年)年底,7年来央行新增外汇储备的汇率损失高达2,711亿美元。

文章谈到,如果未来人民币兑美元的汇率升到6,这一损失将攀升到5,786亿美元。

张岸元强调,这一损失肯定无法通过外汇投资收益来进行弥补,除了作为“政府钱袋子”的中央银行,不会有任何一家商业性机构做这种赔本买卖。他认为,对外汇储备进行分流是很急迫的事情。

央行公布的数据显示,截至3月末,中国外汇储备已达30,447亿美元,占全球外汇储备的三分之一。

香港《东方日报》发表文章“外储损失二万亿谁来承担此罪责”指出,按照张岸元的计算,中国过去7年间的外汇储备损失近两万亿人民币,平均每个中国人为此损失1400多元。当局号称没有资金来实施全民公费医疗,而全国一年的公费医疗仅需四千亿元人民币,这7年间的外储损失已远远超过这一数字。

英国“伦敦大学亚非学院”金融管理系教授孙来祥,他对英国广播公司《BBC》表示,中国没有必要持有如此巨大的外汇储备,当局需要改变外汇管理高度集中的模式,让人民币市场化,让企业拥有更大的外汇管理权力。

超高的外汇储备,使大陆的资金流入和流出显得非常矛盾:一方面,经济发展需要大量资金从国外“输入”﹔另一方面,当局通过不断增加外汇储备向国外“输出”巨额廉价资金。

按照中国的外汇政策,中国每出口1美元商品,国内就要增发相应多的人民币来平衡,去年(2010年)底中国外汇储备大约2.8万亿美元,国内由此增发的人民币超过18万亿元,相当于2008年3.4万亿市场货币流通量(M0)的近6倍。

经济学家郎咸平指出,这些由出口结汇投放的巨额货币,全部以通货膨胀的方式转嫁到了老百姓头上,造成老百姓手中货币的大幅度贬值,物价自然会相应大幅度上涨。由此造成的荒谬现象是:中国出口商品越多,赚取的外汇越多,老百姓就越倒霉。

那么,中共为什么要做如此的“傻事”?当局为什么不“将出口创汇所得还利于民,对内提高人民生活水平”或者“减少商品出口,将更多商品投放国内市场”呢?这不是两全其美吗?

时事评论作者高紫檀在《新纪元》周刊撰文指出,早在中共建政之初,就曾搞出一个工农产品价格“剪刀差”,压低农产品价格以剥削农民来养工人。现在中共搞的是国内外商品价格“剪刀差”,也就是通过剥削廉价劳力、出口廉价商品来出口创汇,然后再加上它的外汇政策,多次掠夺老百姓的财富。

高紫檀认为,这3万亿的外汇储备实质上已经成为中共的党产,民众根本不知道它的具体用途,更谈不上对这些巨额的外汇储备有任何的决定权。

新唐人记者李谦、李若琳综合报导。

China Incur Huge Exchange Losses

China’s huge foreign exchange reserves continue to
grow rapidly in recent years.
Experts said the Central Bank’s foreign exchange assets
have incurred huge losses. It is imperative to divert them.
Analysts believe RMB needs to be internationalized and
freely exchanged. China’s foreign currency policy and
system have rendered Chinese people rather miserable.

Zhang Anyuan, director of financial research in China’s
development and reform institute (NDRC) said,
the loss of foreign exchange assets with the central bank
is appallingly huge. Due to the exchange rate hike,
as of the end of 2010, the Central Bank has lost
US$271.1 billion over the past seven years.

If future exchange rate of RMB to USD rose to six,
the loss will climb up to 578.6 billion USD.

Zhang Anyuan stressed the loss can’t be covered by
investment income. Except for the central bank as
the “government purse", no institution will accept such
commercial trading loss. He believes it’s urgent
to diversify foreign exchange reserves.

Central bank data showed by the end of March, China’s
foreign exchange reserves reached 3,044.7 billion USD
about 1/3 of global foreign exchange reserves.

HK Oriental Daily published an article “Foreign Reserves
Lost Two Trillion, Who Is Guilty?". As Zhang Anyuan
calculated, China’s foreign exchange reserves in past 7
years lost nearly two trillion yuan, about 1,400 yuan
per capita. Chinese Authorities claimed no money
to implement free medical care nationwide, which needs
only 400 billion yuan, much less than the above loss.

Sun Laixiang, professor in Department of Finance in
Oriental and African Studies of Univ. of London,
told BBC that China has no need to hold such huge
foreign exchange reserves, authorities should change
the highly centralized model, marketize RMB, and allow
enterprises to have more management authority on it.

High foreign exchange reserves make capital inflows
and outflows contradictory. On one hand, economic
development requires a lot of money from abroad;
on the other hand, authorities increase foreign exchange
reserves to “output" huge low-cost funds.

According to China’s foreign exchange policy, to export
1 dollar commodity, same value of RMB will be printed
to balance it. In 2010, China’s foreign exchange reserves
was about 2.8 trillion USD, more than 18 trillion yuan
were printed, equivalent to nearly 6-fold of 3.4 trillion
market currency in circulation (M0) in 2008 .

Economist Lang Xianping pointed out the huge amount
of RMB balancing foreign exchange, were passed on
to people as inflation, causing a sharp depreciation of
currency, and sharp rise in prices. The resulting
phenomenon is absurd that the more export and
foreign exchange, the more miserable people are.

Why is the CCP so ‘stupid’? Why don’t the authorities
“Return export income to the public to improve people’s
standard of living “, or “reduce exports, and leave more
on domestic market"? Isn’t it that the best solution?

Critic Gao Zitan said on New Era magazine, as early as
the CCP established its regime, it had a working-peasant
“scissors difference" in price, to suppress agricultural
products prices, exploiting farmers to support workers.
Now it’s “scissors difference” between domestic and
international commodity prices. Exploit cheap labor,
export cheap goods, along with its foreign policy,
repeatedly plunder people’s wealth.

Gao Zitan said essentially 3 trillion foreign exchange
reserves have become CCP’s assets, people do not
know its specific uses, let alone any decision on it.

NTD reporters Li Qian and Li Ruolin

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