大陸《21世紀經濟報導》7月21號報導，央行對「國家開發銀行」採用一種全新的有別於「再貸款」的貨幣投放方式——PSL（Pledged Supplementary Lending），也就是抵押補充貸款。注資萬億，用於支持所謂棚戶區改造項目。
Expert: China Economic Growth to Cost $3.2 Trillion to Keep
A recent Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) report
shows that China needs a $3.2 trillion stimulus package
to maintain a 7.4 percent economic growth rate this year.
Additionally, new loans may exceed the $1.6 trillion mark.
Debt still lingers from the 2008 financial crisis, when
$586 billion in stimulus was injected to boost the economy.
To reach the 7.5 percent GDP growth target set by Chinese
Premier Li Keqiang, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
has to increase the previous investment to boost the economy.
Let’s see what the economic experts are saying.
On July 25, CASS released its report on China’s economic
growth for 2013 to 2014.
The report says that this year’s economic growth rate
will be 7.4 percent, which is the slowest increase in 24 years.
Deputy director Zhang Ping of the CASS institute of
economics, says that the 7.4 percent economic growth rate
can’t be kept up this year without $3.2 trillion in capital.
According to China central bank, in the first half of this year,
the Aggregate Financing to the Real Economy (AFRE)
is $1.7 trillion, which is $67.1 billion more than last year’s.
Among them, loans in the first half year increased by
$928.9 billion which is $106.6 billion more than last year.
Zhang Ping expects the AFRE will reach $3.2 trillion this year,
while the new loans may exceed $1.6 trillion.
Loans will reach record highs and exceed those of 2009
a year which had the largest economic stimulus.
Chinese financial intelligence researcher Gong Shengli:
“$3.2 trillion is also very scary; because they once invested
$586 billion after the first global financial crisis in 2008.
From $586 billion to $3.2 trillion,
it has turned over several times. “
Niu Dao, China finance critic: “The loans exceed $1.6 trillion.
The key question is: Where does all that money come from?
Right now it’s all from printed money.
This is very dangerous because it’s a kind of liability.
This kind of debt has to be paid back one day."
Chinese financial think tank researcher Gong Shengli
says that the reason for such high money investment is
the overall high operational cost of China’s economy
including those of state-owned enterprises, a high money cost,
as well as the high operational costs of the Party.
Niu Dao says that most of the time the CCP uses unfair means
to gain political power, and has never played by the rules.
During the 2008 financial crisis, China’s exports fell
to a negative growth; the industrial production fell sharply,
and a large number of small and medium export enterprises
closed down, leaving behind a big wave of unemployment.
The authorities worried that the economic downturn could
destabilize the Party’s rule and so a $586 billion stimulus plan
This April, Chen Zhiwu, Permal Group chief adviser
and finance professor at Yale, said at the Asian Boao Forum
that it was not only $586 billion because the stimulus plan
in Hubei province alone exceeded $586 billion.
He said the money has caused long-term structural damage.
Gong Shengli: “The $586 billion investment
was not given by the bank, but by the Chinese government.
It shows the Chinese economy
depends on the government’s stimulus.
It’s a kind of economic drain
as long as it follows the unconventional money investment."
Gong Shengli says the three key aspects to stimulating China’s
GDP growth include investment, consumption and exports.
This year, the export ratio has been falling
while the Chinese people’s consumption is very low.
Gong Shengli: “The only way is to drive by investment which
is to put a lot of money to boost China economy.
this year’s GDP goal of 7.5 can’t be achieved.
Money investment is the most practical way for China so far."
Data shows that this June,
the Chinese broad money supply (M2) jumped to 14.7 percent.
New credit continues to have high growth based on May data,
and has reached its highest in five years.
The social financing scale ring has also increased significantly.
China-based 21st Century Business Herald reported on July 21
that China’s central bank is using a new tool — Pledged
Supplementary Lending backed by collateral.
PBOC stumilated trillions to support reconstruction project.
The central bank injected tens of billions of dollars,
reportedly to support the renovation of shantytowns.
Niu Dao: “They have no way to print $3.2 trillion;
but they will think of a way.
They’ve already got some ideas now."
Niu Dao says that the overcapacity from CCP’s $586 billion
investment still has not been solved.
They’re using refinancing, targeted Reserve Requirement Ratio
cuts, adjustment of loans to deposit ratio calculation method,
buy-back commercial housing, and so on to save the market
and increase investment-led GDP.
It’s all done to protect the regime from collapse.
Gong Shengli also says that without now injections
to China economy, China’s GDP will immediately drop.
It would cause more negative influences, including China’s
economic stability and industrial chain disruptions.
Interview & Edit/YiRu Post-Production/XiaoYan