【禁闻】中共专政还能在中国维持多久?

【新唐人2013年09月24日讯】今年以来,中共内部权力斗争不断,为了消除大陆民众对当局的不满声音,中共近期还展开了一场被民间称为“网路文字狱”的净网运动,而中共的执政合法性,也因此受到了全民各阶层以及国际社会的质疑,甚至号称“中共高干摇篮”的中共“中央党校”内部,也开始公开讨论中共政权灭亡的问题。

英国《金融时报》驻京记者吉密欧,最近采访了位于北京西部的中共“中央党校”,他发现,这里的共产党员们开始讨论一个过去没有人敢公开提出的话题——中共政权的崩溃时间。

各大媒体转载了《金融时报》9月20号发表的这篇长篇评论文章。文章说,对于“中共专政还能在中国维持多久?”一位不愿透露姓名的“中央党校”教授表示:“这是每个中国人的疑问。”事实上,这个问题自从1989年“天安门广场大屠杀”和“苏联解体”之后,成为一个常年的问题。

对此,有评论分析,中共真的已经到了民心尽失的地步,以至于整个社会从上到下、各个阶层,都在盼望着中共政权崩溃的这一天到来,甚至连号称“红色摇篮”和“党性锻练熔炉”的“中央党校”,也已经不再否认中共灭亡的必然性,转而计划当中共灭亡那一天到来时,共产党员该怎么办。

旅德极权主义研究学者仲维光:“共产党把握著权利,倒行逆施,使得民众在受剥削、压迫,受到欺侮的时候无处维权,这样一个现象已经在中国社会的每一个角落都渗透了。在这样一种情况下,在这样一种民众没有人再相信共产党、再被共产党迷惑的情况下,这样一个党,它怎么可能不倒台呢?所以它的末日屈指可数。”

《金融时报》文章总结了大量中国知识份子和西方杰出汉学家的观点说,中共具备了所有灭亡的因素,并引述了美国“乔治华盛顿大学”中国政策研究系主任沈大伟的看法,认为,今天的中国与中国历史上任何末代王朝无异。

仲维光:“我在德国经历过1989年,现在中共面临的情况很像东欧当时1989的情况,有大量东德的人,经过其他的国家,跑向西德。就是因为在1989年的时候,东欧国家的民众彻底抛弃了共产党,在对共产党离心离德的这种程度上,已经到达了相当的地步,因此就造成了11月9号柏林墙倒塌,整个共产党的灭亡。”

中国互联网上,一篇名为“历代王朝灭亡前十大征兆”的博文在网路热传,文章暗讽中共亡党的十大征兆:

一、官民对立,社会动荡。二、思想混乱,人心浮动。三、加强社会各方控制。四、乱加税收,横征暴敛。五、乱发纸币,货币贬值。六、上层醉生梦死,下层苦不堪言。七、体质僵化,不思进变。八、中下层失去上升空间。九、军队腐败,士气低迷。十、粉饰太平,歌功颂德。

仲维光指出,随着资讯的发达和人们密切的沟通联系,越来越多的大陆民众,在了解中共的真实面目和本质后,对中共的统治彻底丧失了信心,这将成为中共政权崩溃的一个重要因素,也是最令中共惊恐担忧的。

仲维光:“最近10年以来,共产党早就风声鹤唳、草木皆兵,尤其是从2004年以后,在海内外进行的‘退党’,这个活动实际上从最根本的地方瓦解共产党,这就是10年以后,大家看到的,今天的人心都散了这个现象的一个很重要的原因。”

中共政权最终崩溃的导火索,会是哪个﹖目前舆论的说法不一,有人认为可能是经济危机的爆发,也有人认为可能是社会矛盾引发的“阿拉伯之春”式的革命浪潮,也有人认为会和平演变。但有一点不能否认,那就是,连中共高层也已经做好了中共灭亡后逃亡的准备,他们已经知道,这一天终将到来。

采访编辑/ 张天宇 后制/钟元

How Much Longer Can the CCP Regime Last in China?

Powers struggles within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
have continued to worsen since the beginning of this year.
In order to stifle people voicing their dissatisfaction, the CCP
authorities recently intensified suppression of internet speech.
Thus, more people from all levels of society are being led
to question the CCP’s ruling legitimacy.
Even at the CCP Party School, the “breeding ground for senior
CCP cadres," people are discussing the CCP’s collapse.

Jamil Anderlini, Beijing reporter for UK based Financial Times,
recently did interviews at the CCP Central Party School.
He found out CCP members there have begun to discuss a topic
that no one dared openly raise in the past–
the time of the CCP’s collapse.

Major media republished the long editorial report
that was published on September 20 by Financial Times.
On the issue of “how long will the CCP regime last?",
the article quotes a CCP Party School professor,
who withheld his name, as saying that
“this is the question of every Chinese person."
In fact, this has been a question since 1989, following the
June 4th Tiananmen Massacre and
the dissolution of the former Soviet Union.

Commentators say that the CCP has lost the people’s trust.
The entire society, at all social levels from the top down,
all are looking forward the day of its collapse.

Even its “Red Cradle", the CCP Party School, doesn’t deny it,
they are planning on what to do when the CCP actually falls.

Zhong Weiguang, Germany based researcher of totalitarianism:
“The CCP grasps power, exploits and oppresses people.
People have no place to defend their rights.

This is the case in every part of China’s society.

No one believes in the CCP,
nor will they be cheated by it any more.
How could such a regime not fall? It’s days are numbered."

The Financial Times article summarizes the viewpoints of
a large number of Chinese intellectuals and
prominent Western sinologists,
that all factors are in place for the CCP to perish.
It cited David Shambaugh, China Policy Research Department
director at U.S. George Washington University,
who says that today’s China is no different
from the ending era of any dynasty in China’s history.

Zhong Weiguang:"In 1989 I was in Germany.
Today’s China is very similar to Eastern Europe in 1989.
Many people from East Germany fled to West Germany.

In 1989, the Eastern European people completely abandoned
the communist party, causing the collapse of the Berlin Wall
and the perish of the communist party."

An article titled:"Ten Key Signs of the End of All Dynasties,"
has been spreading widely online in China.
It characterizes the end of the CCP in ten points:

1. Social unrest and hostility between officials and the people
2. Ideological confusion and insecurity
3. Tightening social control
4. Chaotic taxes and exactions
5. Recklessly printing banknotes and devaluation
6. Decadent upper class and a miserable lower class
7. Rigid system without progress
8. No room to upgrade for the middle and low classes
9. Military corruption and low morale
10. Praising propaganda

Zhong Weiguang says that with technological advances
and people’s close communication and contact,
more and more people in China have completely lost faith
in the CCP after knowing of its true nature.
This will be an important factor in the CCP’s collapse,
as well as what the CCP fears most.

Zhong Weiguang: “The CCP has been very nervous
in the last 10 years, especially since 2004.
The international movement to quit the CCP is disintegrating
the CCP most fundamentally.
It is the essential reason why now, 10 years later,
today’s people no longer believe in the CCP."

What will finally trigger the CCP’s collapse?
There are different speculations.
Some say it will be economic crisis, some say it might be
social conflicts leading to movements similar to the “Arab Spring."
Some believe there will be a peaceful transformation.

One thing cannot be denied is that
CCP senior officials have prepared for escaping after its end.
They know that the day is coming.

NTD Reporter Zhang Tianyu

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