【新唐人2013年01月14日讯】习近平日前在主持十八大政治局第一次集体学习时，强调“马列主义毛思想不能丢”，并且“坚持中国特色社会主义”，以及“共产党的领导地位”。海外媒体认为，这“三大不能改”正是中共政权危机的根源，如果习、李逃避政治改革，今后面临的风险可能更大。请看报导。
海外媒体对习、李改革表示高度关注。《纽约时报》发表评论说，习、李面临的最紧急的挑战来自政治方面，而不是经济领域。如果不作出政治努力，限制国家权力，抑制腐败，允许人民在公共政策方面发表意见，中共新领导班子的所谓市场化经济改革都不大可能会成功。
《纽约时报》还分析说，经济改革离不开政治改革的原因非常简单：恢复和保持经济增长所需的政策将会损害既得利益集团——国企、地方政府以及官僚机构和统治精英家族的利益，他们通过腐败聚敛了大量财富。
这些利益集团是共产党的核心拥护者。换句话说，共产党本身将会成为改革的目标。这三大“不能改”，显然既可安抚党内保守派，也代表了新领导集团的共识。
而“英国广播公司（BBC）”则认为，中共努力通过镇压维持统治，将导致不稳定。推进改革虽然具有风险，但是逃避改革风险更大。
时事评论员林子旭：“习近平刚刚上台，他必然要发表中共利益集团喜欢听的言论，但是习近平他本人非常清楚自己目前的境遇，他要么就像江泽民周永康这些人完全站在中共这一边，要么就改弦更张，站在老百姓这一边。如果习近平既想要保住中共，又想讨好民众，在今天这条路根本走不通。”
时事评论员文昭分析，习近平所谓讲毛泽东思想，是承接十八大的一个说法和口径，未必代表他的真实观点。习近平本人曾明确表示要走邓小平的路。这意味着毛泽东思想只会作为共产党的一个标志保留，他的影响将越来越淡化。
时事评论员文昭：“所谓马列主义，毛泽东思想不能丢的说法，主张的目地还是弥合中国大陆所谓顽固派和改革派之间的一个裂痕。他（习近平）想阻止和弥补由于薄熙来事件造成党内的一个分裂。他目前想要做的是，想要维护这个体制不至于立刻崩塌、维护共产党，不至于自己内部意识形态的裂痕，所导致的内部的涣散。”
对于中共利益集团死守的所谓“三大不能改”的保命原则，时事评论员林子旭说，能不能改不是共产党说了算，共产党说一不二的时代早就过去了，而且这种趋势越来越明显。
时事评论员林子旭：“这种变化的原因主要有两点，第一就是，网络技术的快速发展，让中国人越来越清醒；第二，中共的衰弱，让中国人内心的恐惧越来越少，可以肯定的是，中国人在未来必然更加清醒勇敢。只要网络构成的舆论环境在，中共就必然会一点点的被遏制，甚至被扼杀。”
从“南周事件”上看，中宣部再次放言：党管媒体的原则不能动摇。文昭认为，这是习近平作出的一个尝试，想看中共的“党性”到底多大程度上，能和现行的“宪法”框架相容。
文昭：“习近平未来的政治目标，政治手段的可塑性还比较大，现在不能说他绝对不会做什么，他体现出来的倾向性还是比较明显的，他目前还是要维持中共的极权体制，不希望立刻去做一个结构性的深层制度上的变化。”
文昭还表示，中共不仅是政治上的极权，它还要垄断人民的思想，是哲学意义上的绝对极权，跟“宪政”绝对不能相容。文昭说，任何想把中共集权制度改成“宪政”的努力，最后都会失败。
采访/常春 编辑/许旻 后制/周天
Xi Jinping Proposes “Three Adherence” Policies
Xi Jinping recently proposed “three adherence” policies in
his speech to Politburo members of the 18th Party Congress.
“Adherence-to Marxism-Leninism & Mao Zedong Thought”.
“Adherence to socialism with Chinese characteristics”.
“Adherence to the leadership of the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP)”.
International media commented that these three
policies are the root cause of CCP regime’s crisis.
Moreover, avoiding political reform will
be riskier for the new CCP administration.
The touting of reform by the CCP has
raised concerns in international media.
The New York Times commented that “Xi Jinping’s
most urgent challenge is political, not economic.”
The regime’s market-oriented economic reforms
are “unlikely to succeed without political efforts
to curb the power of the state, control corruption
and give the people a voice in public policy.”
The NY Times’ article analyzed reasons why economic
reform cannot take place without political reform.
“Economic initiatives needed to revive and sustain growth
are those that will hurt the entrenched interest groups.”
They are “state-owned enterprises, local governments,
as well as the bureaucracy and families of the ruling elite”.
These groups “have amassed
huge wealth through corruption”.
They “form the core constituencies of the Communist Party”.
“In other words, the party itself will
become the target of these reforms.”
Radio Free Asia reviewed that the “three adherence”
policies pacify CCP conservatives, and also reflect
the Party’s new leadership team’s common position.
The BBC quoted a commentary in The Economist,
saying, “the party’s efforts to maintain control through
repression are leading to instability, not stability.”
“Reform is risky, but avoiding it is riskier still.”
Lin Zixu, Critic: “Xi Jinping has just taken office, and
would certainly speak in favor of CCP interest groups.
But Xi himself is clearly aware of his own situation.
He has two choices, either to stand on the side
of the CCP, as did Jiang Zemin and Zhou Yongkang.
Alternatively, he can speak for the civilians.
But it’s a dead end for him if he wants to keep
the CCP, and also to curry favor with the public.”
Critic Wen Zhao comments on Xi Jinping’s
claim of adhering to “Mao Zedong Thought”.
Xi spoke along the same line set at the 18th Party
Congress, and this may not be Xi’s own view.
Xi Jinping has explicitly said before
to follow Deng Xiaoping’s path.
Wen Zhao thinks that this implies that “Mao
Zedong Thought” will only be kept as a mask
for the CCP, with its influence further diluted.
Wen Zhao: “Xi’s claim of adhering to Marxism-Leninism
and Mao Zedong Thought aims to heal the division
between the hard-liners and the reformists.
His goal is to try to overcome the internal
fracture caused by the Bo Xilai scandal.
Now he wants to maintain the CCP
system to prevent its immediate collapse.”
Lin Zixu says that the CCP actually doesn’t
have the final say on its alleged “adherence”.
The reality has shown an increasing shift on this.
Lin Zixu: “There are two causes behind the change.
Firstly, the rapid development of internet
technology has helped the Chinese to awaken.
Secondly, the CCP’s decay has helped reduce
the Chinese people’s fear towards the party.
To be certain, the public in China will be
more conscious and braver in the near future.
As long as the internet-backed public voice exists,
the CCP is bound to be contained, and will finally perish.”
In the recent Southern Weekly incident, the CCP
Central Propaganda Department instructed that
“the Party’s control over media must not waver.”
Wen Zhao remarks that this is Xi Jinping’s attempt
to find out how much the compatibility of the CCP
“Party spirit" goes within the existing Constitution.
Wen Zhao: “Xi Jinping’s political goals
and political practices are quite adaptable.
We don’t know what he will do or not do, but now
his action has shown a quite obvious inclination.
That is, he still tries to maintain the CCP totalitarian regime,
and not to make a fundamental change in the system.”
Wen Zhao adds that the CCP is a
totalitarian system in terms of politics.
Furthermore, it controls people’s mind, an
absolute totalitarianism in terms of philosophy.
Both are not compatible with Constitutionalism.
Wen Zhao asserts that any attempt to transform the CCP
totalitarian system into a Constitution will end in failure.
