《争鸣》杂志还揭露，国安小组第十次会议分析了“阿拉伯之春”发生的概率之后，结果很不乐观：社会保障后续乏力与可能的亏空，将会引发大规模社会抗议。为解燃眉之急，中共试探 “推迟退休年龄五年” 计划，结果网上骂声一片，民众“上街”的情绪高涨。
采访/陈汉 编辑/宋风 后制/肖颜
CCP Leaders Hold Ten Secret Meetings:
How Can They Prevent an “Arab Spring” in China.
December 2010 saw the beginning of a series
of democratic movements against dictatorial regimes.
This was called the “Arab Spring.”
Since this began, four dictatorships have been overturned,
including in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen.
The movement also forced many other Arabian
countries to adjust their political policies.
In China, which is still governed by a dictatorship,
the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the situation is also not as tranquil as it appears.
It is revealed that CCP leaders have held ten secret
Meetings, discussing how to prevent an “Arab Spring” from taking place in China.
Five months ago in Munich, a CCP Foreign Ministry official
tried to deny US Senator John McCain’s words.
McCain suggested the Arab Spring would appear in China.
He also claimed that “any statement saying that the Arab
Spring has spread to China is unrealistic”.
However, an article written by Bao Wenlai
in Hong Kong’s Cheng Ming magazine revealed
that the “CCP National Security Leading Group”
chaired by Hu Jintao has secretly met ten times.
This was to discuss how and when
the “Arab Spring” might break out in China.
The article wrote that one of the CCP leaders biggest
worries is the sharp increase in unemployment.
Unemployment is mainly found in high school
students, who give up attending the national college
examination, and college students who cannot
find a job after graduation.
In the second half of 2011, robberies committed
by unemployed, young people have increased by 170%.
Consequently, the CCP had to stop its plan
for further enrollment expansion in colleges.
The article also remarked that Chinese
society had become very unjust.
Even without a national protest like the “Arab Spring”,
there are frequent massive protests breaking out locally.
Some internet surveys among small groups indicate
most Chinese civilians agree that
“some kind of turmoil will eventually take place in China”.
The “immigration wave” of rich people has provided
further support to these opinions.
Political commentator Wu Fan believes that mainland
Chinese are becoming more and more resentful against the CCP authorities.
This is similar to the situations of the
countries involved in the “Arab Spring”.
In addition, the CCP is also losing its control
on society, with its old acts of suppression losing their effects on Chinese people.
(Wu Fan): “Let’s have a look at recent activities.
In the last few month, tens of thousands of people
in Zhongshan, Guangdong stood up against the police.
The CCP had to send thousands
of armed police as a crack down.
Since July 1st, many more thousands of people joined
the environmental protection protests in Shifang, Sichuan.”
The Cheng Ming article also revealed that the 10th meeting
of the CCP National Security Leading Group had analyzed the possibility of an “Arab Spring” in China.
The result was not good for the CCP.
Due to a huge deficit in social security funds, even
larger-scale protests will probably be induced.
Trying to find a quick solution, the CCP announced
a plan of “extending retirement age by five years”.
Nevertheless, they received overwhelming criticism
on the internet, causing more protests on the street.
Globally, the effects of the Arab Spring are still spreading.
Since Putin was found to be involved in fraud scandals
during 2012 presidential elections, the scale of protests began increasing in Russia.
Inside China, Arab-spring-like movements can
occasionally be observed in Xinjiang or Tibet.
The Cheng Ming article revealed that CCP leaders had
frequently adjusted their strategies to release this pressure.
For example, on June 21st during the 10th secret meeting,
they decided to loosen control on micro-blog sites.
Recently, People’s Daily, the CCP’s mouthpiece media,
also published articles requiring local governments
to “consider global effects” when dealing with local affairs.
The article cited the case of forced abortion of a seven
month pregnant woman in Ankang, Shanxi,
to show how “bad behaviors” of local authorities
had negatively affected the “figure of China”.
Wu Fan pointed out that since the CCP has been
suppressing Chinese people for so many years.
It’s not possible to eliminate these grudge by any discussion
in meetings, or only loosening control on micro-blog sites.
(Wu Fan): “As long as the CCP continues to deceive
and suppress Chinese people instead of benefiting them.
Nothing will change even if the CCP holds
hundreds of such meetings.
How can Chinese people tolerate this any more?
You know they have tolerated it for sixty years.
Now the post-90’s middle-school students in Sichuan
stood out as pioneers in street protests. This is unimaginable for the CCP.
In Hong Kong, 400,000 people joined the July 1st
parade against the dictatorship regime.
How can the CCP imagine that?”
Wu Fan further remarked that loosening control over
micro-blog sites indicates a division inside the CCP.
It is not only Chinese people that have no trust in the CCP,
but now even party members do not trust the party.
He concluded that the only way to avoid the “Arab Spring”
in China is to end governance by the CCP.