【新唐人2011年12月12日讯】一年一度的中共中央“经济工作会议”，一向被认为是为来年宏观经济政策定调的关键会议，以往每年都在11月底开，今年却定在12月12号，罕见的往后推迟了十几天。按照惯例，在“经济工作会议”前召开的“定调会”，也延迟到12月9号。海外媒体指出，会议延迟，反映出中共高层内部对经济调控意见不一，以及明年十八大中共高层各权力方的政治角斗。
中国大陆“国家统计局”8号公布：中国11月份的通胀率和工业产能双双下降。 9号，“中共政治局”召开“定调会”声称，明年将加强经济调控，在保持经济增长的同时继续控制通胀。
“美国宾州费城爵硕大学”商学院教授谢田分析，中共政权实际上正处于经济崩溃，房市和股市也处于崩溃边缘，整个资金炼和金融业将会出现危机，这次“经济工作会议”就是在这样大的一个背景之下，抛出来的一个自保之路。
对于这次经济会议中提出的持续“房地产调控政策”，谢田认为这根本解决不了实际问题。
2007年底以来，中国宏观经济政策已有六次方向性调整，却依旧难以阻止中国经济走向崩溃的势头。中共商务部长11月28号承认：“现在可以确定的是，中国明年经济将面临下滑风险。”
今年中共中央经济工作“定调会”与正式会议一度推迟，也反映出中共高层内部对中国经济束手无策，对来年的经济调控政策难有定调。
有评论文章认为，中共高层在明年的经济调控政策上的分歧，与十八大中共高层换届有关，各自有各自的利益盘算。
温家宝明年就要交权，当然不希望在自己的任上再捅什么篓子。所以在经济政策上是求稳的，既不会像08年那样，大张旗鼓的撒钱，也不会完全收紧钱袋，不管中小企业死活。
而明年十八大常委热门人选之一的王岐山，主张推出10万亿刺激经济。很明显，王岐山希望用一个上升态势中的经济形式，来迎接明年的十八大，撒钱则是最迅速有效提振经济的办法。
另外，李克强接任温家宝担任总理一职已经没有太大争议，因此不希望接到自己手上的是个烂摊子。李克强希望现阶段仍然不要放松经济政策，通过调控使得经济结构有所调整。预计，对房地产的控制，在李克强手中，将成为一个长远的政策。
不过，海外评论认为，中共政府2012年的经济政策，对解决中国当前的经济危机作用不大，“美国环球通视公司”(Global Insight)中国经济学家桑顿(Alistair Thornton)说，中国若要彻底战胜通胀，还为时过早。
新唐人记者林莉、许旻、萧宇采访报导。
China’s Economic Policy a Challenge
The Economic Working Conference of the Central Committee
of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is regarded as the key macroeconomic policy meeting to set the tone for the new year.
It is usually held annually at the end of November.
However, this year it is set for December 12,
delayed for over ten days, which is rare.
The special meeting for setting the tone for the Economic
Work Conference was also postponed to December 9.
Foreign media pointed out, the delay reflects CCP’s internal
economic and political disagreements prior to its 18th Congress.
China’ National Bureau of Statistics announced on December 8,
that the inflation rate and industrial production in November have both declined.
On December 9, the CCP Politburo held a setting the tone
meeting for the Economic Working Conference.
They claim next year they will strengthen economic regulation,
continue to control inflation and maintain economic growth.
Prof. Xie from University of South Carolina-Aiken’ Business
School thinks the communist regime is in economic collapse.
The housing and stock market are on the verge of collapse.
The entire funds chain and finance are heading toward crisis.
The Economic Working Conference had thrown a way out
to protect CCP’s regime from what is on this background.
Prof. Xie: “Why should we control inflation?
It’s because China’s inflation has been out of control.
More than 15% inflation makes people full of complaints,
which has directly led to social instability.
They control inflation in order to pacify the people,
safeguard social stability and the regime’s stability."
Prof. Xie doesn’t believe the ‘real estate control policy,’
proposed at the conference, can solve practical problems.
Prof. Xie: “It was not fully effective because they (CCP) are
suppressing housing prices, which touched local elite’s interests.
When the capital investment funds collapsed and market
prices went down, this did not promote house selling.
When the house prices go down, people will be more worried
because they do not know how much the prices will drop.
If house prices continue to fall, people will see
their down payments being engulfed.
The Chinese people have gradually seen that the black hand
behind the real estate bubble is the elite class."
Since the end of 2007, China has adjusted the direction
of macroeconomic policy six times.
However, it is still difficult to stop
the momentum of China’s economic collapse.
Chinese Minister of Commerce admitted on November 28:
“It is certain that the Chinese economy will face risks of going down next year."
This setting the tone meeting of CCP’s economic work
was postponed this year.
It shows the CCP leadership can’t do much
for the Chinese economy,
and it is clear that the CCP faces difficulties to set the tone
for the coming year’s economic control policies.
A review article revealed that the high-level CCP
has disagreements over the next year’s economic policy.
This is related to the 18th CCP Congress Meeting.
Each faction defends its own interests’ plan.
Wen Jiabao will hand over power next year,
and certainly does not want to do anything wrong before that.
Thus he wants stability in the economic policy,
not like in 2008, spreading the money in a high profile;
Wen will not completely tighten the purse strings,
ignoring small and medium enterprises.
Wang Qishan, a likely candidate for 18th Standing Committee
next year, advocates 1 trillion RMB economy stimulus.
Obviously, Wang hopes to use a rising trend in the economy
to meet the next year’s 18th Congress Meeting.
Spreading money is the most rapid and effective way
to boost the economy.
Li Keqiang has little doubt he will take over the
Prime Minister from Wen, and does not want to inherit a mess.
Li hopes that the current economic policy will not be loosen,
but the economic structure to be adjusted by regulations.
It is expected the real estate control in the hands of Li
will become a long-term policy.
Overseas experts said, Chinese government’ economic policy
in 2012, has little effect on China’s current economic crisis.
China economist Alistair Thornton from Global Insight said,
China has a long way to go to get its inflation under control.
NTD reporters Lin Li, Xu Wen and Xiao Yu
