【新唐人2013年12月18日訊】朝鮮二號人物張成澤被處決後，中共方面的反應，與中、朝兩國關係，成為外界關注的焦點。最近，朝鮮當局「開始召回在中國的朝鮮商務人員」。分析人士認為，這是以張成澤為首的朝鮮親中派勢力，將被徹底清剿的信號。而朝鮮這種對中共近乎「打臉」的行為，卻再一次被當局容忍。
據《韓國聯合通訊社》引述消息來源說，朝鮮處決張成澤後，已經開始召回在中國瀋陽、丹東等地從事貿易和投資的朝鮮人。又計劃分期、分批將朝鮮駐中國的所有官員都召回國。
《韓聯社》援引分析人士的話說，這可能是要鎮壓那些被視為張成澤派的人物。
美國中文雜誌《北京之春》主編胡平：「這是進一步整肅的信號，他不相信這些人，他擔心這些人會和中共有一種特殊的聯繫，所以他現在就把朝鮮駐中國的人全部召回，至少要有一個『大換班』，換上他信任的人。另外他恐怕也想試圖通過把這些人召回，進一步去查清楚張成澤的勢力和中共到底有些甚麼樣的聯繫。」
美國中文雜誌《北京之春》主編胡平指出，張成澤與中共的關係極為密切，這恰恰是金家王朝最為忌諱的。
胡平：「朝鮮政權來說，它一方面是名義上把中共當成他最大盟友，同時他也認定你是他最危險的敵人。因為只有你，只有中共才有力量在他們(朝鮮)內部搞政變。所以它就一方面又跟你特別好，一方面又特別警惕你，特別防範你。從金日成起，一直到金正恩都對清除內部的親中勢力是不遺餘力，非常殘酷。」
令人不理解的是，金正恩明知處死張成澤會惹惱中共，卻仍然不顧一切的這樣做了，甚至擺開架勢要徹底整肅「張成澤一黨」，打擊朝鮮的親中勢力。胡平認為，就是因為金正恩敢賭，他相信中共無論多惱火，也不敢對他採取甚麼措施。
胡平：「現在北京對平壤非常頭大，它不知道怎麼辦好，它怎麼辦都不好。金家就吃準了這個，把你吃定了。它知道你不敢拋棄它，而且你唯一能做到的，就是在朝鮮搞一個宮廷政變，如果這一招你做不到，那你就拿我無可奈何了。」
事實證明，金正恩果然賭對了。對於他打擊朝鮮親中勢力這種對中共近乎「打臉」的行為，中共不但沒有制裁或報復，反而用妥協、無力的態度對此作了回應。
12月9號，張成澤被「雙開」的消息一發佈，中共當局就表態：「這是朝鮮內部事務。」隨後，一向以對外強硬著稱的中共喉舌《環球時報》發表社論，明確的說：「張成澤落馬證明了金正恩大權在握，牢牢控制著全國形勢」，並且說：「金正恩還年輕，未來將會是決定朝鮮命運的決定性人物」。
不僅如此，中共還提出「中、朝都應為促成金正恩早日訪華積極創造條件」。而在此之前，金正恩幾次提出要訪問中國，中共當局都沒有回應。
胡平：「金氏政權它畢竟在性質上、在名義上和中共政權是一類的。都是以共產革命起家的專制政權。因此，朝鮮政權的崩潰、垮臺，就不可避免的會對中國的政治產生衝擊。那麼它一旦垮臺，它的所有罪惡都暴露於天下，那麼就會讓中共內部引起很大的震盪。所以它雖然現在很不喜歡朝鮮政權，但是它更擔心現在的朝鮮政權崩潰掉。」
不過，美國智庫「蘭德戰略研究所（Rand）」近期公布，金正恩曾在去年遭到暗殺，而且傳出暗殺金正恩事件的時間，正好朝鮮軍方出現權力鬥爭，如果暗殺行動成功，朝鮮在沒有有明確的繼承人情況下，勞動黨及軍隊可能出現分裂，甚至引發內戰。
這篇《應對朝鮮體制崩潰》的報告，依據朝鮮政權的非法性、經濟現狀、鎮壓國民等計算的「崩潰國家指數」頗高，因此報告認為﹕朝鮮政權的崩潰只是時間問題。
採訪編輯/張天宇 後製/陳建銘
Chinese Communist Party Keeps Silent
on Kim Jong-un’s Challenge
After the execution of Kim Jong-un’s uncle, Jang Song-thaek,
focus remains on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) reaction
and the relationship between the two Communist regimes.
North Korea’s recent recall of its expatriates in China is said
to be a purge of those who are in Jang’s pro-China faction.
The CCP, however, has been silent on what is seemingly
a slap on the face by North Korea.
South Korean Yonhap News reports quoted sources saying
after the execution of Jang Song-thaek, North Korea began
summoning its businessmen in Shenyang and Dandong.
The plan seems to be bringging all officials and staff
home from China in stages.
Analysts told Yonhap the move was to suppress Jang’s allies.
Hu Ping, editor of Beijing Spring magazine: “This is a signal
for a further purge.
He does not trust these people, for their connection to the CCP.
There will be a major shift in personnel, with people he can trust.
He could also intend to identify the exact connection of
Jang’s faction in China to the CCP. “
Beijing Spring editor Hu Ping says the very close relationship
between Jang Song-thaek and the CCP was taboo to Kim.
Hu Ping: “To North Korea, the CCP is its biggest ally but also
its most dangerous enemy.
Only the CCP has the capacity to engage in the internal coup
in North Korea.
Since Kim Il-sung, North Korea has been maintaining
a very good but vigilant relationship with the CCP.
The cruel purge of pro-China forces in the regime
has never stopped, even up to Kim Jong-un."
Knowing the execution of Jang Song-thaek may annoy the
CCP, Kim Jong-un still conducted the entire purge plan to
attack the pro-China forces within North Korea.
Hu Ping says that Kim Jong-un is betting on the fact
that the CCP won’t dare to react to his movement.
Hu Ping: “Pyongyang has become a tough call for Beijing.
The Kim dynasty has figured that out.
They know the CCP would not dare to desert North Korea,
but at most might engage in a palace coup.
The CCP could do nothing against it."
As it turns out, Kim Jong-un was right. The CCP has given a
rather weak and compromising response to North Korea’s
movement to purge the pro-China forces.
When Jang was expelled from the party and official post on
Dec. 9, the CCP stated that it was “an internal affair”.
Later, the CCP English mouthpiece Global Times commented
in an editorial that Jang’s fall shows “its leader has the ability
to control the situation”.
It also emphasized: “Kim Jong-un is young, which can
possibly become the country’s decisive factor in promoting
the nation to move forward”.
Further more, it stated that “China should help bring about
Kim Jong-un’s visit to China as soon as possible”, which
was neglected by the CCP in the past when Kim proposed to
visit China on several occasions.
Hu Ping: “After all, the Kim regime is nominally the same as
the CCP as well as in the nature of it’s tyranny.
So North Korea’s collapse will inevitably
shock the CCP regime in China.
The collapse will expose all the evilness of Communism.
Even though the Kim regime is not a favorable to the CCP,
they’re more concerned about the collapse of North Korea."
American think tank Rand Corporation recently published a
report mentioning that Kim Jong-un reportedly survived an
assassination attempt in 2012, “during a power struggle in a
military bureau”.
It also says North Korea could suddenly collapse if Kim were
assassinated, “leaving no clear successor and the potential
division of the senior North Korean leadership into factions
that would likely wage civil war against each other.”
In this research report entitled, “Preparing for the Possibility
of a North Korean Collapse,” it stated that the North Korean
regime exhibits many aspects of a failed state.
According to the measurements of the regime’s illegality,
economic situation, and suppression of the people, North
Korea has a high rank on the Failed States Index.
The report says: “North Korean Government Collapse
Appears to Be More a Matter of Time.”
Interview & Edit/Zhang Tianyu Post-Production/Chen Jianming
