【新唐人2012年11月08日訊】11月8號，中共召開十八大會議，將正式啟動十年一次的權力交接，下一屆常委將在所謂的差額選舉中產生。英國媒體引述消息人士的話說，這次十名候選人中，將產生七名常委。外界普遍預期，習近平將出任國家主席，而國務院總理職務將由李克強接替。其他候選人誰上誰下，仍是未知數。評論分析，十八大名單出爐的最後一刻都會有一些玄機。
7號，《美國之音》報導說，中共中央政治局，現任九常委多數已接近或超過70歲。包括中共國家主席胡錦濤在內的七位常委，預計將交出黨內職務，習近平將坐上頭把交椅，李克強也將留任並高陞。香港《亞洲週刊》10月26號列舉最新軍委名單，胡錦濤十八大後將連任軍委主席。
而11月6號，《路透社》引述消息人士的話說，中共十八大政治局新常委選舉，將是「十選七」，十名候選人中，除習近平、李克強外，還包括副總理王岐山、中宣部部長劉雲山、中組部部長李源潮、重慶市委書記張德江、天津市委書記張高麗、廣東省委書記汪洋、上海市委書記俞正聲和國務委員劉延東。
近幾個月來，外媒對中共十八大入常名單猜測不斷，至今已傳出多種版本，《路透社》公布的這十名入常候選人名單，基本都是之前被熱炒的入常人選。
「中國民主黨全委會美國委員會」主席張健認為，十八大名單出爐的最後一刻都會有一些玄機，這次會議有可能是中共最後的晚餐，希望能看到中國民主改革的呼聲，從黨內漫延到整個的社會，最後推翻中共專制體制。
「中國民主黨全委會美國委員會」主席張健：「因為今年的十八大和往年所有召開的都不太相同，我們看到在中國風雨飄搖的政局面前，中共從來沒有感到過自己的危險，來自國際方面的民主潮流，在對它進行圍剿，來自於中國基層人民，對民主改革這個願望越來越強烈，同時各地方，大規模的維權抗爭事件不斷的湧現，風起雲湧，再加上它的高層人員的叛逃。」
中共十八大前，媒體傳出中共政治局常委將在差額選舉中產生，並且逐步制度化。常委的候選人名單將會保持20%以上的差額選舉比例。說是為了進一步推進黨內民主。實際上，這是在延續十七大時，政治局委員的產生方式。當時，中共在中央委員及政治局委員實行差額選舉，差額比例是15%。
張健：「差額選舉也就是說各派利益之間權衡這些東西，至於最終它的選票能否最後決定還不一定，在那種白熱化，在用自己生命，用自己整個一個家族，一個利益鏈來去考量的時候，即便是差額選舉達到我要求，我是滿意的，如果你不達到我的要求，那可能我就拿你老底去報料，用各種方式，去把這個人搞臭搞垮，來達到他差額選舉沒達到的目地。」
時事評論員藍述指出，中共的這種差額選舉不是真正的民主。民主是人民當家做主，可是中共的整個差額選舉過程中，人民既沒有權利提名，也沒有參與投票。
時事評論員藍述：「它採用這種差額投票的方式可能有兩個原因：一方面是中共現在所面臨的社會矛盾和社會危機已經到了不可調和的地步，它必須要做出一些姿態出來，去緩解這個社會矛盾，做出一些民主的姿態﹔第二個可能性是，它不得不利用這種所謂的差額選舉的方式走一個過場，這樣也有利於緩解黨內的各個集團之間的矛盾。」
藍述指出，十八大後不管誰上臺，只要在中國共產黨的框架之內，搞所謂的改革也好，體制之內的民主也好，都不可能解決中國社會問題。解決的唯一方式就是解體中共。
採訪編輯/李韻 後製/王明宇
Standing Committee Member list on 18th NPC
On 8th November, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
will hold its 18th National People』s Congress meeting (NPC),
and handover power, which happens every ten years.
Standing Committee members of the next session
will stand in so-called competitive elections.
British media quoted informants, saying that this will be
seven Standing Committee members from the ten candidates.
Outsiders widely expect, Xi Jinping to be appointed as
President, and the prime minister will be succeeded by Li Keqiang.
For the other candidates, who will be elected is still unknown.
Analysts say that the list will remain a secret until the last minute.
On 7th November, Voice of America reported that
the Political Bureau of the CCP Central Committee,
the nine Standing Committee members have
all been or are over the age of 70.
Seven of them, including President Hu Jintao
will hand over positions in the CCP.
Xi Jinping will become president, and Li Keqiang
will also be promoted.
Hong Kong’s Asia Week released a list citing the latest
Military Commission from 26th October,
with Hu Jintao being re-elected as military chairman.
On 6th November, Reuters quoted informants saying that
the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CCP at the 18th NPC,
will be selected from ten candidates, including Xi Jinping,
Li Keqiang, Deputy Prime Minister Wang Qishan,
the Central Propaganda Department director Liu Yunshan,
the Central Organization Department Minister Li Yuanchao,
Chongqing CCP Secretary Zhang Dejiang,
Tianjin CCP Secretary Zhang Gaoli,
Guangdong CCP Secretary Wang Yang,
Shanghai CCP Secretary Yu Zhengsheng and State Councilor Liu Yandong.
In recent months, the foreign media have made
many guesses on the standing committee member list for the coming 18th NPC.
Many versions of the list were released.
Reuters announced the ten candidates list, which were
basically the candidates being discussed very often before.
Zhang Jian, Chairman of the United States Commission
of the China Democratic National Committee, believes that
there will be unknown factors until the last moment,
and this meeting will be the Last Supper for the CCP.
He hopes to see voices of democratic reform,
Spreading from the CCP to the whole society, and finally end the CCP regime.
Zhang Jian: “This year』s 18th NPC is different from those
in previous years, and we see China’s precarious political situation,
but the CCP has never felt in endangering themselves
from the democratic trend of the international community.
Grassroots people are also longing for democratic reform.
Large-scale human rights protests frequently appear
all over China, and also some CCP senior officials have defected to other countries.”
Before the 18th NPC, media reported that the Politburo
Standing Committee will be selected in a competitive election,
and will be gradually institutionalized. The Standing Committee
member list will keep 80% or less of the candidates on the list.
It was said to further promote democracy within the party.
But this is actually a continuation of the 17th NPC.
At that time, the CCP held selections for Central Committee
and Politburo members, with a 15% difference.
Zhang Jian: “Member selection is the trade-off between the
factions in their interests, but it cannot be decided outright.
It is fierce competition. They consider it from their own
life, their family, and their interest chain.
Although the selection aimed to satisfy requirements,
if you do not meet the requirement, your reputation can still be ruined.”
Political commentator Lan Shu pointed out that the CCP』s
selection is not a true democracy.
Democracy has the people as masters, but people have
neither the right to nominate or vote during the CCP’s entire selection process.
Lan Shu: “This differential voting may have two reasons.
One is that the CCP are facing irreconcilable social
contradictions and a social crisis,
so it must make some gestures to alleviate the
social conflicts, some gestures of democracy.
Secondly, it has to walk a cut scene with the differential
selection, which would also help to ease contradictions among different fractions.”
Lan Shu describes that after the 18th NPC, no matter who
is in power, as long as its within the framework of the CCP,
so-called reform or democracy within the system,
cannot resolve the social problems in China. The only way out is to disintegrate the CCP.
