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【世事关心】再造里根时代的辉煌?

纽约时间: 2018-07-31 10:41 AM 
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【新唐人北京时间2018年07月31日讯】【世事关心】(474)再造里根时代的辉煌?:西方媒体对前总统里根和现总统川普进行了很多比较,从他们出人意料的崛起,到问鼎白宫,再到二人在出理时政方面采取的异乎寻常的策略,表面上看,目前川普总统和当年里根总统打的不是同一场仗,对里根来说,那是冷战,对川普而言,是一场正在进行的贸易战,然而,这两场战争的核心却是自由世界共产主义政权之间悬而未决的意识形态之争。
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美国与欧盟正朝着零关税的目标推进。这对目前的美中贸易战意味着什么呢?
The U.S. and the EU are working toward zero tariffs. What does it mean for the U.S.-China trade war?

夏业良先生(前北京大学经济学教授): 〝我相信世界上绝大多数的经济贸易体,都会进入到一个非常低、甚至零关税的自由贸易区之内。这样的话对中国来说是一个非常大的遏制和打击。〞
〝 believe, will enter a stage of extremely low, even zero-tariff. That will be a disastrous suppression and blow to China. 〞

川普可能在贸易问题上向中国全力开火。最终的结局将会是什么?
Trump might go full force with China on trade. What is his endgame?

夏业良先生(前北京大学经济学教授):〝我认为他有更大的格局,他有些东西没有说出来,但是他做的含义不仅仅是在贸易和经济领域。〞
〝He has greater visions, part of which are never mentioned publicly. But his considerations have gone beyond trade and economy. 〞

说到底,俄罗斯与美国真的会成为朋友吗?
Can Russia and the U.S. be friends after all?

文昭(新唐人资深评论员): 〝他与俄国修复关系有利于专注应付主要的威胁。在川普的第一个任期内要重建和俄罗斯关系挑战还很大。〞
〝Restoring the relationship with Russia would help the U.S. to focus on its main threat. So during Trump’s first term, restoring the relationship with Russia remains a great challenge. 〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):欢迎来到《世事关心》,我是萧茗。西方媒体对前总统里根和现总统川普进行了很多比较——从他们出人意料的崛起,到问鼎白宫,再到二人在处理时政方面采取的异乎寻常的策略。表面上看,目前川普总统和当年里根总统打的不是同一场仗。对里根来说,那是冷战;对川普而言,是一场正在进行的贸易之战。然而,在这两场战争的核心,却是自由世界共产主义政权之间悬而未决的意识形态之争。本期节目我们将作一个深度比较,对赢得一场战争须具备的决定性因素进行重点关注。这些因素都有哪些?我们认为,这里涉及到美国的几个全球战略联盟,美国人民,以及总统是否能够抓住时机、果断出手的意愿。当年里根做到了,他创造了历史。那么,历史会重演吗?且让我们拭目以待。
Welcome to《 Zooming In》. I’m Simone Gao. The Western media has drawn numerous comparisons between Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump, from their unconventional rise to presidency to their unorthodox approaches in dealing with current affairs. On the surface, President Trump is not fighting the same war that Reagan did. For Ronald Reagan, it was the Cold War. For President Trump, it is the ongoing trade war. However, at the core of both wars is the unresolved ideological difference between the free world and the communist regime. In this episode, we’ll draw a deeper comparison by focusing on several deterministic factors for winning a war. What are these factors? In our view, they relate to U.S. strategic global alliances, the American people, and the president’s willingness to seize the day and make bold moves. Reagan did this and he made history. Will history repeat itself? Let’s take a look.

2013年,美国前第一夫人南希・里根在接受《今日美国》报采访时说:〝当时很多人害怕‘改变现状’,但是,英国首相柴契尔夫人要实现的愿景却非常清晰,坚定地捍卫自己的信念。〞 结果,她促成了苏联的解体,千千万万的人得到了解放。
In 2013, former first lady Nancy Reagan told USA Today: 〝As prime minister, Margaret had the clear vision and strong determination to stand up for her beliefs at a time when so many were afraid to 'rock the boat.' As a result, she helped to bring about the collapse of the Soviet Union and the liberation of millions of people.〞

川普与中国开打贸易战,但是却没有像铁娘子那样的人助他一臂之力。而且欧洲各国对川普加征钢铁和铝关税,以及威胁对汽车出口征税而感到不满。
Donald Trump does not have an Iron Lady to help him in his trade war against China. European nations are upset with him for imposing steel and aluminum tariffs and for threatening to impose tariffs on auto exports.

川普总统这是摆明了他要单枪匹马,使全球贸易环境趋于公平。 7月24日,他发推文说,〝我们就像是被打劫的‘存钱罐’。〞川普肩负着终结这一局面的重任。
President Trump demonstrated his willingness to single-handedly level the global trade playing field. On July 24 he tweeted, 〝we are the‘piggy bank’ that’s being robbed.〞He is on a mission to end that.

欧洲国家已经注意到了川普坚韧不拔的精神,就像他们曾经注意到里根总统坚定不移地实现自己的政策一样。 历史再一次重演,7月25日,欧盟委员会主席容克会见了川普总统。双方同意朝着〝零关税〞的目标推进,开启美欧关系的新时代。
Europe took notice of his tenacity, similar to how they noticed Ronald Reagan’s tenacity in pursuing his policy. History again repeated itself; On July 25, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker met with President Trump. They agreed to work toward〝zero tariffs〞 and start a new phase for the U.S.-EU relationship.

Trump: 〝We agreed today, first of all, to work together toward zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers and zero subsidies on non-auto industrial goods. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. We will also work to reduce barriers and increase trade in services, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, medical products, as well as soybeans. Soybeans is a big deal. And the European Union is going to start, almost immediately, to buy a lot of soybeans. They are a tremendous market. Buy a lot of soybeans from our farmers.〞
川普(美国总统):〝我们今天已经达成共识。首先,我们将共同努力实现零关税,零非关税壁垒以及对非汽车工业产品的零补贴。谢谢! 我们还将努力减少各种障碍,增加服务业、化学品、药品、医疗用品以及大豆的贸易。大豆是一个大问题,欧盟将会立即开始购买大量的大豆。他们有一个巨大的市场,会从我们的农民那里购买很多大豆。〞

Jean-Claude Juncker(欧盟委员会主席):〝当我被川普总统邀请到白宫时我有一个意愿,我希望今天能达成协议,我们做到了。〞
Jean-Claude Juncker(E.U. Commission President): 〝When I was invited by the president to the White House I had one intention, I had the intention to make a deal today, and we made a deal. 〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):美国与欧盟关系的最新进展表明,中国联欧抗美的策略遭到失败。就在此前不久,人民币对美元贬值。自7月25日起,人民币以6.78收盘,3个月内损失6.9%。对中国而言这意味着什么?就这些问题,我们采访了原北京大学经济学教授夏业良先生。
The latest change in the U.S.-EU relationship shows that China’s strategy of rallying Europe against the U.S. failed. Right before that, the Chinese yuan depreciated against the dollar. As of July 25, the yuan closed at 6.78 and lost 6.9% in three months. What does all this mean to China? I discussed these questions with former Peking University Professor of Economics David Xia.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝这轮新的人民币贬值您觉得是中共政权所为吗?它给中美贸易战带来了什么样的影响? 还有,川普和欧盟主席宣布谋求美欧之间零关税。中共政权要如何应对呢?〞
〝 Do you think this new round of Renminbi depreciation was a move of the Chinese communist regime? What impact has it had upon the ongoing U.S.-China trade war? And Trump and the European Commission president announced they would work towards zero tariffs. How will the Chinese regime deal with that?〞

夏业良先生(前北京大学经济学教授):〝 由于人民币最近这些年,它的币值跟中国的实体经济、外部经济环境、中国金融体系的风险、以及人民币的发行量,这几个因素是相关联的。所以我一直在分析和批评的就是说,中国政府这种做法呢,也就是滥发货币的做法,一定会使人民币显著贬值。这个贬值在中长期都是非常确定的趋势。那么在短期里面显得那么突出,有人怀疑是中国政府做的手脚。但是我觉得现在政府也没有必要有意的大幅度的贬值,他可能最多就是不加干预。比如说我们知道,当人民币贬值幅度过大,如果官方为了让人民币显得更加稳定、坚挺,他可以动用外汇储备,去大量的,比如说购买人民币、去抛出美元,这样的话使得人民币保持一定的升值幅度。但是显然现在在目前这个阶段,他没有必要这么做。因为中美贸易战打响之后,如果人民币贬值,对促进出口,从一般意义上来讲是有利的,但是现在的情况又不一定有那么大的利益。因为我们知道,美国等于宣布了对中国的全部出口到美国的5000亿美元,都采取高关税的商品征收,所以这样的一个做法使得仅仅让人民币贬值,并不能达到通常意义上的促进出口的作用。再加上最近两天,川普刚刚跟欧盟的主要负责人容克会谈,而且发表了一个声明,这个声明表明,美国和欧盟之间将消除贸易障碍、关税,也消除任何补贴,这样就造成了‘零关税’、‘零补贴’的这样的一个自由贸易区。而且这两个区域的人口加在一起是8.3亿,占世界总人口的接近12%,然后它的GDP总量占世界GDP总量的50%。这么大的一个自由经济体、自由经济贸易区,再加上日本,加上其它的一些贸易大国,我相信世界上绝大多数的经济贸易体,都会进入到一个非常低,甚至零关税的自由贸易区之内。这样的话对中国来说是一个非常大的遏制和打击,所以中国采取这种小的手段,让人民币贬值,也没有办法扭转这样的一个局势。〞
〝 Over the years, the value of Renminbi has been related to China’s real economy, its external economic environment, risks in its financial system, and money supply. So, as I criticized, this approach of the Chinese government -- over-issuing currency -- will certainly depreciate Renminbi significantly. This depreciation is a sure trend in both the middle and long term. Right now it’s so obvious in the short term that some doubt it is a move by the Chinese government. However, I don’t see much need for the regime to do so. What it might do at most is leave the currency uninterrupted. As we know, if Renminbi is depreciated too much, the authorities may use its foreign exchange reserve, say, in large amounts, buying Renminbi and selling U.S. dollars, to keep its currency stable and appreciated to a certain degree. But right now, there’s no such need. Yes, generally, depreciation will contribute to exports amid the U.S. trade war with China. However, we face a situation in which that method might not necessarily bring about huge interests as expected. It’s known that America’s stance means it will slap high tariffs on $500 billion dollars’ worth of Chinese imports. Therefore, China, by devaluing Renminbi, alone cannot successfully promote its exports in a usual sense. More importantly, President Trump and European Commission President Juncker issued a statement following their summit that both sides would remove trade barriers, tariffs, and any subsidies, thus creating a free trade zone with ‘zero tariffs’,and ‘zero subsidie’. Mind you, the total population of the two regions is 830 million, nearly 12 percent of the world’s population. And their GDP combined consists of 50 percent of the world’s. With such a titan free economy for free trade zone, if added up with Japan and some other trading powers, the majority of global economies, I believe, will enter a stage of extremely low, even zero-tariff. That will be a disastrous suppression and blow to China. Therefore, the Chinese regime will never change the dynamic, with such a minor scheme -- depreciation.〞

接下来,我们聊一聊中国目前真实的经济、政治是怎样一种现状?川普总统是否发现了32年前里根总统发现的一个机会?
Coming up, what is China’s true economic and political status? Does President Trump see an opportunity President Reagan saw 32 years ago?

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):中国真实的经济、政治现状,比西方媒体感觉到的还要动荡得多。32年前,当里根总统洞察到苏联经济多么脆弱的时候,他毫不犹豫,采取了非常大胆的一步,使整个世界格局发生了天翻地覆的变化。那么,历史会重演吗?让我们首先重温一下历史,看看20世纪80年代中期究竟发生了什么。
China’s true economic and political state is much more turbulent than what the Western world perceives. 32 years ago, when President Reagan gained insight of how vulnerable the Soviet Union’s economy was, he didn’t hesitate to make a decisive move to bring down the whole thing. Will history repeat itself? Let’s first revisit what happened in the mid 1980s.

1983年3月,里根总统宣布了战略防御计画(SDI), 该计划很快成为谈判的目标。 1986年10月,里根和戈尔巴乔夫在冰岛会谈。 戈尔巴乔夫在军备控制的几乎各个方面都提出让步,但条件是美国必须放弃战略防御计划。 里根拒绝了戈尔巴乔夫所提的条件,会谈不欢而散。但是,会谈使里根得出一条关键性结论:苏联惧怕美国的战略防御计画。随后,里根将这个计画的预算增加了两倍,很快导致了美苏军备竞赛的终结,以及苏联的解体。 今天,当川普总统对500亿美元、然后可能2000亿美元,甚至可能5000亿美元的中国商品征收关税时,他是否发现了一个类似于32年前里根总统发现的那个机会呢?
In March 1983, Reagan announced the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI). SDI soon became the target of negotiations. In October of 1986, Reagan and Gorbachev met in Iceland. Gorbachev proposed concessions in nearly every area of arms control but under the condition that the U.S. would give up its SDI program. Reagan refused the conditions and walked away with an important insight -- that the Soviet Union feared his program. Reagan then tripled America’s SDI budget, which soon brought the arms race to an end and led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Today, when President Trump put tariffs on 50 billion dollars of Chinese goods and then possibly 200 billion and then possibly the total of 500 billion, does he see an opportunity similar to the one Reagan saw 32 years ago?

在西方社会,我们每天都会听到有关中国的消息,但是我们仍然不清楚中国防火墙背后在上演着怎样的动荡。
In the West, we hear news about China on a daily basis, but we still don’t see the turbulence building behind China’s Great Firewall.

7月25日,在北京宣布将采取更加积极的财政政策后,人民币跌至年内最低点。 尽管受政策驱动,股市在2018年反弹回升,但是中国的经济晴雨表——〝上证综合指数〞在2018年6月间却一直呈下行趋势。
On July 25, the yuan fell to its lowest of the year after Beijing announced that it would pursue a more vigorous fiscal policy. Despite the policy-driven stock market bounce in 2018, China’s economic thermometer ——〝the Shanghai Composite index〞has been trending downward through June 2018.

7月25日当日,路透社的一篇文章显示,4000名高净值投资者纷纷涌向银行,并占领了银行。原来上海阜兴集团旗下四家私募股权公司的管理团队在上月突然跑路。 因此,投资者无法收回自己的投资。阜兴集团资产管理总额达300亿元人民币,是中国市场上最大的玩家之一。这只是公司老板和高管拿着投资者的资金跑路失踪的最新案例而已。人们普遍认为,中国的宏观经济状况无法支持这些私募股权公司作出的高收益承诺。未来将爆发经济泡沫。
On the same day, a Reuters article revealed that 4000 high net worth investors rushed to banks and occupied them. Management teams from four private equity firms under Shanghai Fu Xing disappeared over the last month. As a result, investors cannot redeem their investments. Fu Xing has $30 billion in assets under its management, one of the largest players in the Chinese market. This is only the latest example of ownership and management disappearing with investors’ money. A general observation is that China’s macroeconomic status does not support the high-yield promises made by these private equity firms. The bubble will burst in the future.

7月13日,有消息称,中国许多公共场所都将中共领导人习近平的画像从大厅的墙上撤下。接下来的一周,又有消息传出,中国精英阶层和一些中共党内高级干部已经达成一致,将让习近平从现位置上退下。 虽然习近平按计画访问非洲,表明他并未面临被立即废除的危险,但外界一致认为,他在党内遇到了强大阻力。
On July 13, news broke that many public places took down Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s posters from their lobbies. By the following week, news spread that the elites and some high CCP officials established an agreement to take down Xi Jinping from his position. Although Xi embarked for Africa as scheduled, indicating he is not in immediate danger of being deposed, the consensus is that he encountered strong resistance within the party.

同样是在7月份,中国检查机构宣布,中国最大的疫苗生产商〝长春长生生物技术有限公司〞违反了安全标准。粗略估计表明,25万支问题疫苗已给孩子们接种了。 这一消息在中国社交媒体上传播开来,迅速火爆。此类新闻继续侵蚀着公众对食品和服务安全的信心,以致绝望的中国家长们将自己的诉求反映到美国驻华大使馆的官网上,寻求帮助。
Also in July, Chinese inspectors announced Changchun Changsheng Biotechnology, China’s largest vaccine maker, had violated safety standards. A rough estimate indicated that a quarter of a million faulty vaccines had been administered to children. This news went viral on Chinese social media, as news like this continues to erode public confidence on food and service safety. Desperately, parents in China took their concerns to the U.S. embassy website to seek support.

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):民众的抗议,政治谣言的传播,无不让中共面临的压力与日俱增。事实上,强劲的经济增长已经成为支撑中共统治合法性的唯一来源。如果贸易战能够击破这一假像,中国可能会发生剧烈的政治变革。难道川普现在面临的是32年前里根遇到的相同的局面?让我们来听一听夏业良教授的看法。
Public outcry and political rumors all point to the mounting pressure the Chinese Communist Party faces. In fact, strong economic growth has been the only source of legitimacy for the Communist Party’s rule. If the trade war undermines that, China could go through drastic political changes. Is Trump facing the same situation that Reagan did 32 years ago? Let’s hear from David Xia again.

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):〝川普现在准备好了再给2000亿的中国商品加关税。您觉得他真的有可能最后给所有中国商品加关税吗?如果这样做,他最终想达到的目的是什么?〞
〝Now Trump is ready to place tariffs on an additional $200 billion of Chinese imports. Do you believe he is likely to impose tariffs on all Chinese products? If he does so, what would be his final goal?〞

夏业良先生(前北京大学经济学教授):〝其实川普他把所有的牌几乎都亮出来了。亮出来的目的其实就是要震慑,或者就是讲,给出一个严重的警告,希望中国政府不要采取对抗性的、报复性的措施。那么这样的话就自然会缓解。但如果中国政府也是以牙还牙的话,那么贸易战就会升级,双方都会遭受相当程度的损失。当然了,我以前多次强调过,美国不会伤筋动骨,而中国可能承受不了这个贸易战的后果。当然有人说川普是一个商人,所以他只在乎商业利益?这点我也不这么看,我认为他有更大的格局,他有些东西没有说出来,但是他做的含义不仅仅是在贸易和经济领域。我相信作为一个里根总统的崇拜者,他对国际战略、国际格局的思考,也不会逊于任何一个前任总统。所以我相信我们要再给一定的时间和机会,能够看到川普在很多方面有更大的作为。〞
〝 In fact, Trump has shown almost all his cards. The purpose of his doing so is to deter China or give it a harsh warning, hoping China will not take any confrontational, retaliatory responses. In that case, tensions will naturally ease up. But, if China vows tit-for-tat responses, a trade war will escalate so that both sides will endure significant losses. As I repeatedly stressed, America’s strength wouldn’t be critically undercut. But China wouldn’t be able to endure consequences of this war. Some have doubts: Given his background as a businessman, does Trump only care about commercial interests? I don’t think so. He has greater visions, part of which are never mentioned publicly. But his considerations have gone beyond trade and economy. As an admirer of President Reagan, I’m convinced Trump is no less capable when compared with any of his predecessors in terms of international patterns and strategies. So, give him time and opportunity. And we’ll see he’ll come to greater accomplishments in many fields. 〞

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):〝面对川普施压,中方一再使用激怒川普的方式做回应。您觉得习近平对中美贸易战到底持什么态度?他会在国内外的双重压力下进行根本性的改变吗?〞
〝 Because of pressure from Trump, Chinese authorities repeatedly responded in a provoking manner. What’s Xi Jinping’s attitude towards the U.S.-China trade war? Will Xi make a fundamental change under pressure, both domestic and abroad?〞

夏业良先生(前北京大学经济学教授):〝习近平, 大家都说呢,他是小学文化程度、假博士,而且他的性格比较二,这个二呢就是楞头青的意思,不大能听得进人家的规劝。所以呢,他可能会一条道走到黑。虽然现在他遇到党内的压力和阻力,对他个人的专制或者个人崇拜提出了挑战。但是现在显然他在党内又发起了新的一轮的整肃,使得他又全面掌控了这样一个权力。包括最近又恢复了对他的个人崇拜和个人专制的舆论上的支持。然后他又选择这个时机,其实按照原来的日程,访问中东和非洲这些国家,表明了他掌控权力的一种自信。他认为没有危险、没有危机,他才可以去放心的出访。但是呢很多人都寄予希望说,习近平会不会在压力下,在碰到南墙、在内外困境的压力下,最后他会选择走向蒋经国道路,就是走向一个宪政民主的道路?我认为绝对不可能。〞
〝 Well, Xi Jinping -- it’s said -- received only an elementary education. He’s a fake doctorate degree holder. Further, his character is somewhat reckless, unlikely to listen to others. So, he’ll be stubborn and stick to his ideas until his collapse. Despite pressure, resistance or challenges from within the party over his dictatorship or personality cult, he has renewed another purging campaign and restored his grip on power. Recently, support for his personality cult and dictatorship has resumed. He chose this moment to visit the Middle East and African countries as scheduled, marking his confidence over his control of power. He had to make sure there’s no danger or crisis in store for him before his visit. However, many hope that Xi will choose to follow President Chiang Ching-kuo as an example towards constitutional democracy. Under huge pressure, domestic and abroad, will he do it? My answer is very definite: Never.〞

接下来,我们谈一下美俄关系的改善,会怎样帮助到正在对中国进行贸易战的美国?
Coming up,How can improved U.S.-Russia relations help the U.S. in its trade war with China?

在中美之间不断升级的贸易战中,川普总统在赫尔辛基会见了俄罗斯总统普京。 两位领导人在之后的联合新闻发布会上称这是一次成功的会谈。 但是川普总统因其言论涉及俄罗斯干预2016年大选之事,立即招致民主党党员和共和党党员的批评。川普说,他〝不知道为什么会是俄罗斯干涉大选〞。 第二天,总统说他说错了,他本意是想说:〝我看不出什么理由为什么不会是俄罗斯。〞
Narration: Amidst the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, President Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki. Both leaders called it a success during their joint press conference afterwards. But President Trump immediately faced criticism from both Democrats and Republicans for his comments relating to Russia’s interference in the 2016 election, where he said he〝didn’t know why it would be Russia that interfered〞. The next day, the president said he misspoke and meant to say,〝I don’t see any reason why it wouldn’t be Russia.〞

他后来在推特上写道:〝我非常担心俄罗斯会强势介入下一次的总统大选。基于这样一个事实,即没有哪位总统比我对俄罗斯更强硬,他们将会对民主党施加非常大的压力。〞
He later tweeted,〝I’m very concerned that Russia will be fighting very hard to have an impact on the upcoming election. Based on the fact that no president has been tougher on Russia than me, they will be pushing very hard for the Democrats.〞

由于俄罗斯持续不断对美国的网络安全造成威胁,当川普总统邀请普京到白宫会晤时,许多人感到惊讶。
Because of ongoing Russian cybersecurity threats, many were surprised when President Trump invited Putin to the White House.

7月16日,在一档CNN电视节目《The Situation Room》中接受主持人沃夫・布利哲采访时,参议员兰德・保罗为总统进行了辩护。
In a July 16th interview on the Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer, Sen. Rand Paul defended the president.

参议员兰德・保罗:〝我认为美俄之间有所互动是一个好主意。我认为有些人是属于川普失序症候群。我认为,有些人非常讨厌总统——如果换成是奥巴马,在他第一届任期一开始,当他设置重启键,试图改善与俄罗斯的关系的时候,人们忘记了俄罗斯是一个核大国;他们在叙利亚有影响力;他们距离我们在叙利亚的军队很近;他们离朝鲜半岛也很近;他们在那里的一些影响力可以帮到我们。还有一件事没提到,人们完全忘记了,俄罗斯人曾经试图帮助我们阻止波士顿马拉松爆炸案的发生。而且,由于情报交流和沟通,我们实际上确实帮助他们阻止了在圣彼得堡的一起恐怖袭击事件。〞
Senator Rand Paul :〝I think that it is a good idea to have engagement. And I think that what is lost in this is I think that there’s a bit of Trump derangement syndrome. I think there are people who hate the president so much that -- this could have easily been President Obama early in his first administration setting the reset button and trying to have better relations with Russia. And I think it’s lost on people that they are a nuclear power, they have influence in Syria, they’re in close proximity to our troops in Syria, they are close to the peninsula of North Korea, and they have some influence that can help us there. Another thing that’s lost -- and people forget this completely -- the Russians tried to help us stop the Boston Marathon bombing. We actually did help them stop a terrorist attack in St. Petersburg because of communicating and exchanging information.〞

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):重塑美俄关系确实会在多个方面帮助到美国,包括叙利亚问题、伊朗问题、和朝鲜问题。不过,从另一个角度上看,同样也会在美中贸易战中助美国一臂之力。虽然俄罗斯对美国构成威胁,但中共当局对美国的威胁则大得多。所以,针对俄罗斯和中国,川普究竟会采取什么策略?他是否会达到自己的预期目的?以下是我对资深政论家文昭先生的采访。
Indeed, resetting U.S.-Russia relations could help the United States in a variety of areas, including Syria, Iran, and North Korea. But looking at it from a different angle, it could also help the U.S. in its trade war with China. Although Russia still poses a threat to the United States, the Chinese regime is a much bigger one. So what exactly is President Trump’s strategy towards Russia and China? And can he accomplish it? I spoke with senior political commentator Wen Zhao about it.

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):〝川普总统重建美俄关系的目的是什么? 会让美国在中美贸易战中占据有利地位吗?〞
〝 What is President Trump’s purpose in restoring relations with Russia? Would it give America any advantage in the trade war?〞

文昭(新唐人资深评论员):〝因为川普政府把中国大陆看成是最主要的挑战者,与俄国修复关系有利于专注应付主要的威胁。尽管俄罗斯吞并克里米亚是个难以被接受的行为,但从美国的全球战略来讲,俄罗斯并非一个真正意义上的对手,俄国的人口是1亿4600万,是韩国的两倍多;领土面积是韩国的170倍,但2017年它的经济总量还排在韩国之后,它这点经济实力在各方面很难有什么大作为。俄国要再度成为世界大国,第一步是把原苏联的其它加盟共和国重新纳入它的势力范围,而这一步在普京的有生之年都很难做到。所以说俄国尽管在网路黑客和核武器上有一定实力,但是要真的在各个领域和美国平起平坐还有很长的路, 俄目前是安理会的五个常任理事国之一,在这种情况下,把它推向北京并非是一个明智的策略。但是因为对于俄罗斯干预美国2016年大选的事,美国朝野都不能释怀,俄国自己也不承认、不认错,在川普的第一个任期内要重建和俄罗斯关系挑战还很大。〞
〝 The Trump administration views China as its primary opponent. Restoring the relationship with Russia would help the U.S. to focus on its main threat. Although it’s still difficult to accept Russia’s annexation of Crimea, from a global strategic perspective, Russia isn’t a real opponent for the U.S. Russia has a population of 146 million, more than twice that of South Korea. Its land area is 170 times that of South Korea’s. However, its economy ranked behind South Korea in 2017. It’s difficult for Russia to make waves. For Russia to become a world power again, it first needs to re-integrate all former Soviet Union countries. This will be difficult to accomplish during Putin’s lifetime. So Russia has a long way to go before it can be considered an equal to the U.S. But Russia is one of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. To push Russia to Beijing’s side is not a wise strategy. Russia interfered with the U.S. election in 2016. The U.S. won’t let go of that even though Russia would not admit or apologize for it. So during Trump’s first term, restoring the relationship with Russia remains a great challenge. 〞

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao): 〝中俄有可能成为盟友吗?〞
〝 Could China and Russia become allies? 〞

文昭(新唐人资深评论员):〝如果10年以上的眼光,中俄同盟缺少战略支撑,主要原因是,中国很难从经济上和俄罗斯建立起紧密的联系,中俄的所谓共同利益主要存在于个别的政治议题上。和俄国远东部分相邻的国家比较贫穷——蒙古、朝鲜, 稍稍富裕的地区是中国东北,但是近年也是处于衰退当中,民众富裕程度远逊色于沿海省分、也落后于很多内陆省分。俄罗斯远东的接壤地区普遍贫穷,意味着缺少有消费力的市场,也就没有拉动俄罗斯远东经济增长的动力。俄罗斯的经济复苏最终还是得依赖欧洲。中俄的贸易结构也很单一。中国从俄罗斯采购的大宗商品就是能源,但是现在由于美国的页岩油技术革命,它也成了石油和天然气的出口大国,与俄罗斯的能源买卖是否合算就成了争议。在克里米亚危机之后,中俄签了能源采购大单,但是中国国内一直有反对的声音,认为出于政治原因买了俄罗斯的高价天然是亏了。另一个关键因素是人口:俄罗斯长期的经济衰退,它远东地区的人口还在不断向它的欧洲部分流动。这让俄罗斯政府对广袤的远东地区如何实现有效控制产生了焦虑,也就使俄国对人口膨胀的中国大陆产生了难以消除的戒心。还有中俄争夺对从前苏联独立出来的中亚国家的影响力,这些因素让中俄同盟的持久稳定性有很大问题。〞
〝Taking a long-term view beyond 10 years, China and Russia lack strategic support to form an alliance. The main reason is that China will find it hard to form close economic ties with Russia. Mutual benefits for China and Russia are only restricted to a few political topics. Geographically, Russia’s neighbors are economically weak, such as Mongolia and North Korea. Northeast China is slightly richer, but in recent years, it is economically shrinking. The wealth level is far behind coastal provinces and many inland provinces. Russia borders with many poor regions, which means that they won’t stimulate economic growth in Russia. Recovery in Russia will continue to depend on Europe. The trade relationship between China and Russia is also very simple. China purchases energy resources from Russia. However, due to its shale oil technology, the U.S. now is a large exporter of oil and natural gas. It becomes questionable from a cost-benefit perspective for China to purchase energy from Russia. After the Crimean crisis, China and Russia signed large contracts to purchase energy. Within China, though, there isn’t agreement on this; some believe that purchasing more expansive energy from Russia, purely based on political motive, isn’t really beneficial to China. Another key factor is population. Because of the long-term recession, the far East population continues to flow to Europe. This causes anxiety for the government since it’s difficult to control. So Russia remains suspicious of China, given its growing population. Lastly, China continues to compete with Russia to gain influence over the countries that became independent from the former Soviet Union. All these factors make it challenging for Russia and China to form a long-term stable alliance. 〞

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):仅仅在30年前,统治着苏联这片土地和人民的独裁者们还坐在谈判桌前,与美国面对面谈判。那时候,他们看起来非常强大,不可一世。冷战结束两年后,苏联解体了,里根总统一改前任徐而图之的外交政策,为那个时代庞大的苏共政权的垮台铺平了道路。如今,川普会为美国再次带来同样的荣耀吗?这一次,俄罗斯将会作何选择?在谱写历史的时刻,人民又会作何抉择?感谢您收看本期的《世事关心》, 我是萧茗, 下周再见。
Only 30 years ago, dictators who ruled over the land and people of the Soviet Union sat at the opposite end of the negotiating table with the U.S. They appeared strong and terrifying. Two years after the Cold War ended, the Soviet Union dissolved. Reversing his predecessor’s détente foreign policy, Reagan paved the way for the collapse of the behemoth communist regime of his day. Will Donald Trump achieve the same glory for America again? This time, which side will Russia choose? How will the people choose sides in the making of history? Thanks for watching Zooming In. I’m Simone Gao. See you next week.



===================================================
Producer:Simone Gao
Writer:Simone Gao Michelle Wan Jess Beatty
Editors:Julian Kuo Bin Tang Melodie Von
Narrator: Rich Crankshaw
Cameraman:Wei Wu
Transcription: Jess Beatty
Translation:Frank Yue Michelle Wan Bin Tang Guiru Zhang
Special Effects:Harrison Sun
Assistant producer:Sherry Chang Bin Tang Merry Jiang


Feedback:ssgx@ntdtv.com
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New Tang Dynasty Television
July, 2018

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