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【世事關心】 川普重塑 世界貿易格局

紐約時間: 2018-08-07 10:41 PM 
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【新唐人北京時間2018年08月08日訊】【世事關心】(476)川普重塑 世界貿易格局:美國和歐洲在上個月通過談判達成了零關稅協議,這是全球範圍最新的一個促進自由貿易的談判,此前一周日本和歐盟簽署了一項貿易協議,將取消幾乎所有關稅,美國、加拿大和墨西哥可能很快會更新北美貿易協定,美國和日本也可能簽署自由貿易協定,如果將歐盟視為一個整體,它將超越美國成為世界上最大的經濟體
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美國正與世界上幾個最大的經濟體簽訂多個雙邊貿易協定,整個國際貿易體系會隨之改變嗎?
The U.S. is entering multiple bilateral trade agreements with the world’s largest economies, will the entire international trade system change with it?

夏業良(前北京大學經濟學教授):「他現在做的就是重塑世界貿易格局、重塑美國的對外貿易、經濟、甚至戰略。」
「What Mr. Trump is doing now is to rebuild the world trade platform, reshape U.S. foreign trade relationships and the U.S. economy strategically.」

美國經濟是否強大到足以抵禦貿易戰的壓力?
Is the U.S. economy strong enough to hold up against the stress from the trade war?

Tom Del Beccaro(《分裂的時代》作者):「由於稅改法案從根本上改革了公司稅,我預測經濟會持續增長。」
「 because there’s an actual fundamental change in the corporate tax code, I expect to see sustained growth.」

川普總統對中國的高壓戰略是否有效?
Is President Trump’s maximum pressure strategy against China working?

夏業良(前北京大學經濟學教授):「那麼所有這些都說明中國如果要是跟美國進行那種所謂以牙還牙的貿易對抗戰,那麼中國將會輸的很慘。」
「Based on my analyses, if China plans to engage in the so-called 『a tooth for a tooth』 retaliatory trade war against the U.S., it will definitely lose ungracefully.」

世界貿易組織被邊緣化的後果是什麼?
What happens if the World Trade Organization gets marginalized?

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao): 歡迎收看《世事關心》,我是蕭茗。美國的GDP在今年第二季度實現了4.1%的高增長。第三季度GDP增幅預計將達到更高的4.4%。在貿易戰的背景下能有這樣的成績實在令人驚訝。而就是貿易戰本身,也出現了積極的變化。上週美國和歐盟同意就實現零關稅展開協商。雖然這只是一個初步構想,但是大多數人事先都沒想到,貿易戰也會帶來新的機遇。那就是,它可能會催生一套新的貿易規則,一個更加自由的市場,一個更高的保護知識產權的標準,從而建立一個新的國際貿易秩序。 這個新秩序可能會摒棄現有的多邊貿易體制,代之以主要經濟體之間的雙邊貿易體制。在這個新秩序下,美國將以經濟實力為後盾重建對外貿易關係。在過去很長的一段時間裡,美國的精英階層以為美國國力會持續衰退,中國會崛起成為下一個超級強國。但是在不久的將來,人們可能就會改變這種觀念,「讓美國從新變得偉大」這句話,不見得只是一句口號。在這一期裡,我們將探討這一系列變革。
Welcome to《 Zooming In》, I am Simone Gao. The U.S. Gross Domestic Product, GDP grew at a solid 4.1% for the 2nd quarter. The forecast for the 3rd quarter growth is 4.4%. These are spectacular figures especially against the backdrop of the trade war which also took a drastic turn last week when the U.S. and EU agreed to work towards zero tariffs. Although more things still need to be worked out between the U.S. and EU, a new opportunity most people did not see coming from a nasty trade conflict might have emerged. That is, the birth of a new set of trade rules, a freer market, a higher standard for intellectual property rights protection, and frankly, a new world trade order. Under this order, bilateral trade relations between major world economies might replace multilateral trade organizations. Also under this new order, America will assume a new role, a role that will allow this country to negotiate from a point of strength. For a long time, the American elites have accepted the perception that America is in a long term decline. China will be the next superpower. That perception might be proven wrong in the near future. Make America Great again, after all, may not be just a slogan. In this episode, We’ll explore how all of these changes came about.

美國和歐盟在上個月通過談判達成了零關稅協議。這是在全球範圍最新的一個促進自由貿易的談判。此前一周,日本和歐盟簽署了一項貿易協議,將取消幾乎所有關稅。美國、加拿大、和墨西哥可能很快會更新北美自由貿易協定,美國和日本也可能簽署自由貿易協定。
The zero-tariff agreement between the U.S. and the EU last month is the latest in a series of global trade negotiations favoring freer trade. A week earlier, Japan and the EU signed a trade deal that will eliminate nearly all tariffs. The United States, Canada, and Mexico are likely to update the North American Free Trade Agreement soon, and the U.S. and Japan are also likely to sign a free trade agreement.

如果將歐盟視為一個整體,它將超越美國成為世界上最大的經濟體。美國和歐洲的總和占世界經濟總和的一半以上,日本是第三大經濟體,加拿大排名第10位。據資深中國政治評論員文昭說,當美國與世界上最大的經濟體簽署雙邊貿易協定時,國際貿易體係將發生重大變化。中國一直依賴的世貿組織體制可能會被邊緣化,這將影響中國出口和吸引外資的能力。更重要的是,新體系的成員是自由市場經濟體,它們基本遵循一套推崇資本主義,開放和公平的原則。
If you consider the European Union as one unit, it surpasses America to be the largest economy in the world. The United States and Europe combined account for more than half of the world’s economy. Japan is the third largest economy, and Canada is No. 10. According to Chinese senior political commentator Wen Zhao, when the U.S. signs bilateral trade agreements with the world’s biggest economies, the international trade system will change significantly. The old WTO-centered system, which China has been relying on for accessing foreign markets and attracting foreign investment, will likely be marginalized. More importantly, the members of the new system are free-market economies that fundamentally agree on a set of rules that value capitalism, openness, and fairness.

但事情並沒有就此結束。上週,美國國務卿Mike Pompeo宣布美國將在印度洋、太平洋地區投資1.13億美元。
But the story doesn’t end there. Last week, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced the U.S. will invest $113 million in the Indo-Pacific region.

美國國務卿邁克•蓬佩奧:「 美國將繼續為一個自由、開放的印度太平洋地區的共同繁榮創造條件,每一個國家、每一個企業都應當對此充滿信心。加強與這一地區的聯繫,顯然符合美國的戰略利益。因為世界三分之一的人口在這裏,世界六大經濟體中有四個也在這裏:中國、日本、印度、當然還有美國。」
Mike Pompeo(US Secretary of State): 「I speak for President Trump when I say every nation and business can have confidence that the United States will continue to create the conditions for mutual prosperity in a free and open Indo-Pacific. It is clearly in America's strategic interest to deepen engagement in the region - more than one third of the global population is there, four of the world's six largest economies are there as well - in China, Japan, and India. And of course the United States. 」

印度洋、 太平洋的定義不包括美國的大陸,但夏威夷被包括在內。它包括印度洋的熱帶水域、西太平洋和中太平洋、以及連接印度尼西亞附近的海域,將美國納入印度洋、 太平洋區域具有戰略(印太戰略)意義。Mike Pompeo和商務部長Wilbur Ross將印度洋、太平洋投資與中國的「一帶一路」(BRI)進行了對比, BRI的「道路」是指從中國東南沿海城市泉州,經過西南太平洋和印度洋的海上絲綢之路,它從東南亞、印度一直延伸到歐洲,它主要與美國新的印度洋、 太平洋投資計劃重疊。「一帶一路」倡議因含有控制和攫取參與國資源的內容,一直為人所詬病。
The definition of Indo-Pacific does not include the United States’ mainland; only Hawaii is included. It comprises the tropical waters of the Indian Ocean, the western and central Pacific Ocean, and the seas that connect them near Indonesia. The inclusion of the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific region is strategic. Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross both contrasted the Indo-Pacific investment to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI. The BRI’s 「Road」 refers to the ocean-going Maritime Silk Road that starts from China’s southeast coastal city Quanzhou, via the southwest Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean, and it goes all the way to southeast Asia, India, and Europe. It largely overlaps with America’s new Indo-Pacific investment program. The Belt and Road Initiative has been criticized for dominating and seizing resources from the countries it invests in.

與「一帶一路」倡議相反,國務卿Mike Pompeo強調,美國將讓印度洋、 太平洋地區變得更安全和自由。
In contrast to the Belt and Road Initiative, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stressed that the U.S. will help enhance security and freedom in the Indo-Pacific region.

美國國務卿邁克•蓬佩奧:「我們會隨時確保合作夥伴的安全,並協助他們在確保人民尊嚴的前提下,發展經濟和社會。我們會幫助他們,我們將幫助這些國家的人民免於壓迫或強權統治。」
Mike Pompeo: 「We stand ready to enhance the security of our partners and to assist them in developing their economies and societies in ways that ensure human dignity. We will help them. We will help them keep their people free from coercion or great power domination.」

Wilbur Ross(商務部長): 「有不止一條經濟帶,而且路也不止一條。印度洋、太平洋地區有許多經濟帶和許多途徑。」
Wilbur Ross: 「There are more than one belt, and there’s more than one road. There are many belts and many roads to Indo-Pacific. 」

當川普總統退出跨太平洋夥伴關係(TPP)時,有人批評他說,此舉留下了一個經濟和權力的真空,中國會乘虛而入。但最新的印太投資可能是對此的回應:美國沒有退出世界舞臺,它正在創建自己的平臺來對抗中國的「一帶一路」倡議。
When President Trump exited the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), he was criticized for leaving an economic and power vacuum for China to take advantage of. But the newest Indo-Pacific investment might be an answer to that: The U.S. is not exiting the world stage, it’s creating its own platform to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

印太倡議公佈後的第二天,中國官方媒體的一篇社論警告美國,不要搞「帝國主義」和「權力遊戲」。
A day after the Indo-Pacific initiative was announced, an editorial in Chinese state-run media warned the U.S. against 「imperialism」 and「power games」.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):貿易戰始於川普總統的鋼鐵和鋁關稅,現在看來世界貿易秩序正在重組。這真的是川普總統的最終目標嗎?我與前北京大學經濟學教授夏業良先生進行了討論,讓我們來聽聽他的看法。
It started with President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, and now it seems like the world trade order is being reconstructed. Is this really President Trump’s end goal? I had a discussion with former Peking University professor of economics, David Xia.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「最近,美國和歐盟、日本、加拿大、墨西哥都簽署了或打算簽署雙邊或三邊的貿易協定。您覺得美國在有意打破原來的以WTO為樣板的多邊貿易體系格局,建立新的貿易體系格局嗎?它為什麽要這麽做?會有什麽影響?」
「 Recently, the US signed or plan to sign bilateral or trilateral trade deals with EU, Japan, Canada and Mexico. Do you agree that the US plans to obsolete the multilateral trade platform established by the WTO and build a new model of international trade? Why does he do so? What are the potential outcomes? 」

夏業良(前北京大學經濟學教授):「川普在競選期間就明確地表示,全球化並沒有給美國帶來真正的利益。貿易自由化幫助了一些發展中國家,尤其是對中國極其的有利,但是對美國來說卻遭受了重大的損失。他估計一年美國在貿易方面的損失,加上知識產權保護方面受到的損失,大概是8000億美元,所以,他在競選期間就說,他一旦當選總統,就要對這個問題進行矯正。以往的那些貿易框架,無論是單邊協議還是多邊協議,還有世界貿易組織這個構架,對於美國來說,其實有很多的這種從政治上來講是正確,但是從實際效果上來講非常糟糕。所以他現在做的就是重塑世界貿易格局、重塑美國的對外貿易、經濟、甚至戰略。他現在這一步一步走的是非常的明顯,而且非常的確定。那我們看到過去NAFTA,也就是美國跟加拿大、墨西哥之間的北美貿易區,他首先要廢除。在這種廢除的威脅之下呢,加拿大和墨西哥不得不做出讓步,願意就有些重新談判條件進行協商。這個呢,有可能形成一個新的,雖然框架還是原來的框架,但是它的內容和它具體的情況是跟以前大不相同。另外,跟歐盟和日本,也都是在不斷的談判和協商之中,形成新的貿易協定。那麼跟日本之間的貿易,我們知道在80年代、90年代都有日美貿易摩擦,也有貿易戰。那麼今天日本願意在很多方面跟美國進行重新談判,所以呢這一方面也將有相當大的進展,已經體現出來很多方面。如果要是講一旦美國跟最主要的幾個經濟貿易體能夠達成一些比較好的協議,尤其是歐盟和日本,那麼也就是說可以重塑世界貿易格局,那麼WTO的框架作用基本上就可以廢置。」
David Xia: 「On his campaign trail, Trump made it clear that the U.S. did not benefit from globalization. Free trade has helped several developing countries, especially China. However, the U.S. suffered significant loss because of it. According to his estimate, the U.S. trade deficit, plus the loss of intellectual property, is about $800 billion annually. That’s why he promised to fix the problem once elected. The trade platforms Mr. Trump inherited, whether unilateral or multilateral, and the WTO, appear to be politically correct, but are actually detrimental to the U.S. economy. What Mr. Trump is doing now is to rebuild the world trade platform, reshape U.S. foreign trade relationships and the U.S. economy strategically. His actions are very clear, and the steps he’s taken are reassuring. Let’s take NAFTA as an example. As the first step, he wanted out. Under the threat of U.S. withdrawal, Canada and Mexico made concessions and are willing to come to the table, which paved the way for a new trade agreement. Although the framework still involves the original three North American countries, the specific clauses would be quite different from the previous version. In the meantime, the U.S. is engaging with Japan and the EU to negotiate new trade agreements. There had been trade frictions between Japan and the U.S. in the 1980s and 1990s. It’s a significant step for Japan to renegotiate willingly with the Trump administration. Once the U.S., EU, and Japan -- the biggest economic entities -- can reach better agreements, the world trade platform will be remodeled. It’s just a matter of time when the old WTO framework will become practically meaningless.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「如果世界貿易組織被邊緣化?對中國會產生什麽樣的影響? 」
「 Is it possible that the WTO would eventually be marginalized? How would it affect China?」

夏業良(前北京大學經濟學教授):「WTO,中國是費了13年時間加入WTO。在2001年加入的時候,當時中國做出了很多的承諾。當時的寬限期是5年,在5年之內呢,要完成所有沒有滿足的條件。但是呢現在17年過去了,中國承諾的東西到今天都還沒有完全兌現,甚至大部分沒有兌現。所以現在呢從今年開始,中國陸續開始出臺政策。那麼最近我們剛剛看到中國擴大了外國投資在中國的這樣一個範圍、條件。但是呢我認為來的太晚,已經錯失了最好的時機。如果是在17年前一步一步地向前推進,那麼中國的貿易自由化和市場化就會取得很大的進展。雖然在中共的領導下制度沒有根本的變革,不可能達到完全的市場化,也不可能達到完全的貿易自由化,但是至少可以向前推進很多。」
David Xia: 「It took China 13 years to join the WTO. China made a lot of promises when it was accepted by the WTO in 2001. China was given a 5-year grace period to fulfill all unmet conditions. Seventeen years have passed since then; most of what China had promised has not materialized yet. Starting this year, Beijing has made some new policies. One of them is the expansion and relaxation on conditions for foreign investment in mainland China. However, I think the efforts are too little and too late. The best time was missed a long time ago. If China had moved forward gradually and steadily starting 17 years ago to keep its promises, China would be enjoying more freedom in trade and the market economy. Although the CCP’s rule would not allow a fundamental change, it’s impossible to achieve complete marketization and free trade, but at least it wouldn’t be so backward as it is today.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):一個強大的美國經濟是(川普)重組世界貿易秩序,同時打贏貿易戰的決定因素。那麼美國經濟在未來幾年前景如何呢?我採訪了稅務專家Tom Del Beccaro,他是《分裂時代》的作者,下面是他從稅收改革的角度所說的。
Engaging in a trade war while reconstructing world trade order is only made possible because of one important factor- a strong U.S. economy. So how will the U.S. economy do in the next few years? I spoke with Tom Del Beccaro, a tax expert who is the author of the Divided Era. This is what he has to say from the tax reform point of view.

Tom Del Beccaro(《分裂的時代》作者):「 我在去年協助現政府通過稅改法案的時候,就預計到一旦它獲得通過,就會促成今年第二,第三季度的GDP增長率超過4%。我們確實看到今年第二季度的GDP增長了4.1%。亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行估計,今年第三季度的GDP增長率將接近5%。這是從根本上進行結構調整的結果。稅改分兩種。一種是從前福特和卡特政府搞得短期減免,結果是收效甚微。另一種是小布什政府搞得小規模減稅,或者是柯立芝總統在1920年代,肯尼迪總統在1960年代,里根總統在1980年代搞得大規模稅改。我們的稅改在規模上接近於肯尼迪、柯立芝、和里根搞的稅改。我認為它會促成長期經濟增長,其增速將超過過去20年裏的平均水平。這裡邊的部分原因,是因為稅改將吸引海外資金回流。川普總統以前講過,美國公司為了避免被雙重徵稅,把5萬億美元資金留在了海外。取消雙重徵稅以後,在2018年第一季度,就有3千億美元海外資金回流。這和2017年第一季度的3百億形成了鮮明對比。這是真正的刺激經濟的舉措,就這一條就足以加快經濟增長。不僅如此,由於稅改法案從根本上改革了公司稅,我預測經濟會持續增長,只要不出現國際金融危機,或災難性事件,經濟會長期增長。」
「Yes, when I was assisting the administration last year with the passage of the tax reform bill, I predicted if it passed, that we would see growth above 4 percent in the second and third quarters of this year. Certainly the 4.1 percent we saw for the second quarter has come true, and the Atlanta fed says we’re on track to closer to 5 percent for the third quarter. And the reason why this is occurring is there’s been a fundamental restructuring. There’s two types of tax reforms: one time giveaways, which the United States did under the Ford administration and the Carter administration, which has very little effect. Smaller tax reductions, like which occurred under Bush 43, or the really large reforms that occurred under Coolidge in the ‘20s, under Kennedy in the ‘60s, and reagan in the ‘80s. And we’re closer – this reform package is much more like the major reform of Kennedy, Coolidge, and Reagan. And I expect long-term growth to occur, increases, much better than what we’ve seen in the last 20 years. And we know this is possible, in part because of the money that’s coming home. President Trump talked about the fact that there’s 5 trillion U.S. dollars overseas that wouldn’t come home because of double taxation. That’s been removed. In the first quarter of 2018, over 300 billion came home. That’s a marked contrast from the first quarter of the year before when it was only 30. That kind of stimulus alone, that’s true stimulus, would increase growth in the economy. But because there’s an actual fundamental change in the corporate tax code, I expect to see sustained growth, barring some sort of international security incident or calamity, I expect long-term growth. 」


接下來,世貿組織是否將走入歷史?中國會受到何等影響?
Coming Up,Is the World Trade Organization dead, and how would it impact China?

在美國和歐盟宣布將向零關稅努力的六天後,川普總統表示他計劃將2000億美元中國商品的關稅從10%提高到25%。新增關稅可能會影響魚類、石油、化學品、手提包等商品,但9月前不會作出最終決定。兩天後,北京方面威脅要對600億美元的美國產品徵收關稅,如果華盛頓提高關稅的話。
Six days after the U.S. and the EU announced they will work towards zero tariffs, President Trump indicated he’s planning to increase tariffs on the 200 billion dollars of Chinese goods from 10 percent to 25 percent. The new tariff increase could affect fish, petroleum, chemicals, handbags, etc., but a final decision won’t be made before September. Beijing responded two days later by threatening to slap levies on 60 billion dollars of U.S. products if Washington moves ahead with its tariff increase.

為什麼川普總統的行動如此迅疾?
Why did President Trump move so quickly?

除了中國拒絕承認盜竊知識產權、強迫轉讓技術之外,還有許多其它可能的原因,包括試圖聯合歐洲對抗美國,人民幣大幅貶值,暗中操縱大豆價格以及設立監管障礙限制美國公司開展在華業務。不管是什麼原因,這一輪新增關稅揭示了川普對美中貿易戰的總體戰略 –­––最大限度施壓。
Narration: On top of China’s refusal to acknowledge intellectual property theft, forceful transfer of technologies, etc., there are many other possible reasons, including trying to ally with Europe against the U.S, Renminbi’s sharp depreciation, China’s possible manipulation of soybean prices, and China’s regulatory hurdles that undermine business practices of U.S. firms. Whatever the reason, this new tariff increase reveals Trump’s overall strategy toward the U.S.-China trade war –– maximum pressure.

川普總統宣布可能提高關稅的當天,美國參議院以86比10通過了一項國防政策法案,加強了美國對中國企業經營活動的國家安全審查,並修補了對美國技術的出口的管制。該法案還限制北京在文化活動和軍事演習等領域的活動。同一個法案一周前在眾議院通過,預計將由總統簽署成為法律。
On the same day President Trump announced possible tariff increases, the U.S. Senate approved a defense-policy bill by 86 to 10 that tightens U.S. national-security reviews of Chinese corporate deals and revamps export controls over which U.S. technologies can be sent abroad. The bill also restricts Beijing in areas ranging from cultural activities to military exercises. The same bill passed in the House a week earlier and is expected to be signed into law by the president.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):川普總統是否正在最大限度的對中共施壓?這樣做會奏效嗎?還是請夏業良教授為我們解答。
Is president Trump exerting maximum pressure on China and will it work? Here is David Xia again.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「川普總統在這周宣布他打算把對中國加增的2000億商品的關稅從10%上調到25%,美國參議院又同時通過了7000億的國防授權法案,對中共也是很大的威懾。您覺得川普的對中國最大壓力的策略會成功嗎?中國接下來會如何走?」
「 President Trump announced last week that he planned to raise tariffs from 10% to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods. Last year, the senate passed a 700 billion military budget bill, which was also a major deterrence to China’s ambitions. Do you think Mr. Trump’s strategy of maximal pressure would succeed? How would China respond? 」

夏業良(前北京大學經濟學教授):「我覺得現在川普招招緊逼,而且不給中國喘息的機會。雖然前面中國有一些招數說是要讓人民幣貶值10%,來應對這樣的一個後果。但實際上美國又出了這樣一個新招,就是關稅提高到25%,那麼中國很難再大幅度地貶低人民幣。有人算了一下,如果要是將人民幣貶值50%,或者40%以上,才有可能抵消這些方面的影響。那樣的話,人民幣貶值嚴重的話會帶來嚴重的通貨膨脹,給中國國內各個方面經濟造成壓力和負面的後果。所以這些呢都是應當加以正視的,所以我覺得中國在這些方面沒有太多的好的招數可以使用了。中美貿易戰,一般人都會認為,這只是貿易本身的這種爭鬥,主要目的是為了利益。但實際上我們要看到這個利益不僅僅是經濟和貿易的利益。在川普眼中,美國利益優先、美國利益第一,他實際上包含著美國要成為偉大的國度,繼續引領世界。在他年輕時候的夢想,他的偶像就是里根總統,里根總統在冷戰時期可以遏制蘇聯,那麼現在在我看來是一次新冷戰,舊的冷戰可能已經是基本上終結,但現在新的冷戰開始。那麼新的冷戰中呢,美國要跟現在新的對手–––中國進行根本上的較量。所以這一點我覺得他不僅僅看的是貿易利益本身,他看到的是更加長遠的美國國家利益和安全。」
David Xia: 「Trump is now pressing really hard and not allowing China a break. Although China deployed a trick to let the Renminbi depreciate by 10% to cancel the effects of tariff increases, the U.S. made a new move to increase the tariffs to 25%, making it extremely difficult for China to further depreciate its currency correspondingly. Some calculated that if the Renminbi were to be devalued by 40%, 50% or even more, it’d then be possible for China to offset the impact of the 25% U.S. tariffs. In this scenario, a drastic depreciation of the Renminbi would bring serious inflation and bring stress and negative consequences to all aspects of the Chinese economy. So I believe China doesn't have any strong hands left in playing with the value of the Renminbi. Most people would think that the Sino-U.S. trade war is limited to trade itself, and Trump’s main goal is to gain more financial interests for the U.S. In my humble opinion, however, it goes far beyond the economy and trade. Trump made it clear that he’d like to “Make America Great Again,” and his policies center around “America First.” It’d be natural for Mr. Trump to want to restore the United States as the beacon of the free world. His childhood idol was President Reagan because Mr. Reagan kept the Soviet Union in check during the Cold War. It appears to me that the trade war is a contemporary Cold War. The 44-year Cold War ended in 1991; the new Cold War just started. In the new Cold War, the U.S. will have a fundamental war of ideologies with its new rival, China. So I believe that Mr. Trump is not only looking after trade itself, he has long-term national interests and security in his mind.」

Coming Up,Manufacturers move production out of China amidst trade war tensions.
接下來,隨著貿易戰的發展,製造商開始遷離中國大陸。

在美中貿易戰中,海外製造商開始將生產線從中國撤出,其中包括在全球供應鏈中扮演重要角色的臺灣企業。
Amid the U.S.-China trade war, overseas manufacturers are starting to move their production lines out of China. Among them are Taiwanese firms that are crucial players in the global supply chain.

據彭博社報導,向蘋果公司供應電源組件的Delta電子公司正以21.4億美元的價格收購其泰國子公司, 這是在泰國擴大生產的前奏。為Bose等公司生產耳機的Merry Electronics Co. 也可能將其部分產能從中國轉移到泰國,未來的具體發展還要看目前貿易戰的走向。
According to Bloomberg, Delta Electronics Inc., which supplies power components to Apple Inc., is making a $2.14 billion offer to buy out a Thai affiliate -- a precursor to expanding production there. Merry Electronics Co., which makes headphones for companies like Bose, may also move some of its production to Thailand from China, depending on how the trade conflict pans out.

搬遷的原因主要是工資增漲。這種趨勢在幾年前開始,並在美中貿易戰中加速。
iPhone組裝商富士康暫時留在中國,但這個臺灣製造商剛剛在6月開設了第一家美國工廠。根據CBS廣播公司的消息,這將是富士康在亞洲以外的第一家工廠。
The reason for the relocation is mainly wage increase. The trend started a few years ago and has been accelerated by the U.S.-China trade war. iPhone-assembler Foxconn remains in China for now, but the Taiwan manufacturer just opened its first U.S. factory in June. According to CBS news in Washington, this would be its first plant outside of Asia.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):富士康的老闆郭台銘在美國設廠,是為了分散投資以降低風險。中國經濟到底有多少緩衝餘地,來抵禦貿易戰帶來的負面影響?我們來聽夏教授怎麼說。
By opening a factory in the U.S., Foxconn’s owner Ted Kuo is definitely putting his apples in two baskets to minimize risks. Just how much cushion does the Chinese economy have to resist the negative impact from the trade war? This is what Professor Xia has to say.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「您認為中國現在的宏觀經濟形式怎麽樣? 它有多厚的底子能和美國繼續拼下去?」
「 What’s your opinion on the health of China’s macroeconomy? Is it healthy enough to continue fighting the trade war against the US?」

夏業良(前北京大學經濟學教授):「中國要想跟美國進行抗衡,在經濟貿易方面,無論是從貿易產品的結構和升級的檔次,還有從技術領先的條件來講,都是差距甚大,不是三年、五年能趕上的。比如說我們前一段時間看到的,制裁中興公司,由於不提供芯片,所以中國的很多的重要產業都受到嚴重的影響和制約,所以中國在這個方面就立馬現了原形,沒有辦法敢跟美國進行叫板。那麼還有一些高技術領域,包括軍事領域,軍事領域當然是不允許轉讓,但是呢這些年來,中國也持續在偷竊這些技術,包括最先進的戰鬥機。所以現在美國不但是在貿易上制裁中國,而且在技術上,尤其是在高技術和軍事技術方面,要對中國進行嚴加的防範。然後講到經濟上的能力,我們知道美國對貿易的依存度並不是像中國那麼高。美國的貿易依存度只有12%左右,而中國的貿易依存度高達33.6%。也就是說如果沒有跟中國之間的貿易,美國不會傷筋動骨;而沒有跟美國的貿易,中國在經濟發展上,在很多方面會遇到比較大的困難。包括外匯儲備,因為我們知道外匯儲備的主要來源是出口貿易,當中國的幾乎所有的商品都受到這種高關稅的壁壘,那麼在這種情況下呢,中國的外匯來源受到了很大的影響。外匯儲備現在目前已經從原來的4萬多億美元下滑到2萬多億。但實際上根據內部人士的消息,實際上能夠應對的只有少數的1萬多億。那麼所有這些都說明中國如果要是跟美國進行那種所謂以牙還牙的貿易對抗戰,那麼中國將會輸的很慘。」
David Xia: 「In the arena of economics and trade, the difference in power between China and the U.S. is quite dramatic, be it the trade structures or the level of technologies in the products or the technological gap, the difference is huge. It’s not a gap that can be bridged in three to five years. For example, China’s ZTE was temporarily banned from purchasing U.S. chips because of its sanctions violations. As a result, many important industries in China were badly hurt. China’s technological deficiencies were immediately exposed. In many high-tech categories, especially the military-related technologies, the transfer of technology is forbidden. Over the years, however, China has been stealing American technologies, including secrets for the most advanced fighter jets. To retaliate, the U.S. not only imposed restrictions on trade with China, but also put bans on technology transfer for the high-tech and military technologies to prevent further loss by Chinese espionage. When it comes to economic power, the U.S.'s dependence on trade (12%) is not as high as China's (33.6%). That is to say, if trade ceases to exist between China and the U.S., the U.S. wouldn’t be badly hurt. China, on the other hand, would run into major difficulties in many aspects of its economic development, especially its foreign-exchange reserves. The main source of China’s foreign-exchange reserves comes from exports. With almost all Chinese goods subjected to high tariffs, China’s foreign-exchange reserves have fallen from over $4 trillion to a little more than $2 trillion USD. According to reliable insiders, there’s only about 1 trillion that can actually be counted on. Based on my analyses, if China plans to engage in the so-called “a tooth for a tooth” retaliatory trade war against the U.S., it will definitely lose ungracefully.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):8月3日,在新加坡舉行的東盟外長會議上,中國外交部長王毅和蓬佩奧舉行了會晤。王毅說中美已經達成協議解決貿易戰。他說蓬佩奧和他一樣,也不希望美中貿易戰持續下去。這意味著什麼?這是中共在退讓之前為保留顏面的舉動嗎?我們目前還不能做出這樣的結論。但是,一個簡單的事實是: 中國的出口商平均利潤率低於2%。那麼25%的關稅對他們來說意味著什麼?請繼續觀看我們的節目。蕭茗和《世事關心》將以獨特的視角,帶您關注貿易戰的發展。感謝收看,我們下週再見。
On August 3, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and Mike Pompeo met at the ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting in Singapore. Wang said the two countries reached an agreement on the issue of how to resolve the current trade dispute. He said Pompeo agreed with him that America does not want to see the trade war continue. What does that mean? Is it a face-saving way to say China plans to concede? We won’t draw that conclusion yet. But a simple fact comes to mind: China’s export business has an average profit rate less than 2%. What does a 25% tariff mean to them? Stay tuned, Zooming In with Simone Gao will bring you the unique perspective on the ongoing trade war. Thanks for watching and see you next week.


======================
Producer:Simone Gao
Writer:Simone Gao, Jess Beatty
Editors:Julian Kuo, Frank Lin , Bin Tang
Narrator: Rich Crankshaw
Interview Overdub: Kacey Cox

Cameraman:Yolanda Yao
Transcription: Jess Beatty
Translation:Greg Yang , Frank Yue, Michelle Wan, Guiru Zhang
Transcription:Jess Beatty
Special Effects:Harrison Sun
Assistant producer:Sherry Chang, Bin Tang, Merry Jiang

Feedback:ssgx@ntdtv.com
Host accessories are sponsored by Yun Boutique

New Tang Dynasty Television
August, 2018
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