【新唐人2013年10月26日訊】中國房價上漲到令人絕望，似乎沒有甚麼能阻擋中國房價上漲的步伐，甚至連諾貝爾經濟學獎獲獎者席勒，也不敢輕言中國房地產的前景。那麼，是甚麼原因使中國的房地產走向如此不確定﹖使這個泡沫越吹越大，而又不可戳破。我們看看專家分析。
根據國家統計局的數據，中國70個大、中城市9月房價同比上漲9.1%，漲幅高於8月的8.3%。在北京，新建商品住宅價格同比上漲20.6%。上海漲幅為20.4%，深圳漲幅20.1%。
一線城市10年來房價上漲了5倍﹔而另一方面，在一些地區，大量空房無人居住，出現諸多「鬼城」﹔在經濟不景氣的情況下，房價卻一直飆升，使得眾多經濟學者警告，中國房地產崩盤預測失靈。
今年的諾貝爾經濟學獎獲獎者羅伯特•席勒(Robert Shiller)，成功預測了2000年美國互聯網的泡沫破裂、和2005-2007年的美國樓市危機、以及2008年全球金融海嘯等。大家都希望席勒能夠為中國樓市「診脈」。但實際上，他對中國樓市的評論一直很謹慎。
幾年前席勒曾表示，不論從房價收入比、房價租金比，還是從國際的橫向比較、和歷史縱向比較來看，中國樓市價格都處於相當高的水平。今年6月，他公開指出：中國等國家樓市急劇上漲，看起來存在泡沫。
事實上這個泡沫，今天看來卻如此的堅硬，似乎沒有誰再敢預測它何時破裂。
浙江大學商學研究院院長李志文：「共產黨是個泡沫，房地產在共產黨沒有垮之前就是這個樣子，政局一旦不穩，它就出現一個大泡沫，因為全是共產黨現象造成的，土地是政府控制住的，有的就變成了人為的吸血性，如果土地完全市場化，它不至於漲成這麼厲害。」
前幾年，中共當局沒有停止任何調控措施，但中共新政上任以來，沒有針對房地產市場推出任何重大政策，評論認為，這令房地產市場蠢蠢慾動，擔心政府政策可能導致房價下跌的潛在購房者又殺回市場。
中國房地產投資顧問鄭志遙：「因為房價後面牽扯的行業很多，如果房地產將來要去泡沫化的話，那一個動盪下來，引起的結果不亞於金融海嘯。」
房價上漲明顯的中國大城市，生活成本也大幅竄升。據北京市統計局發佈的數據，今年9月，北京市居民消費價格指數（CPI）同比上漲3.3%，食品、娛樂教育文化用品，以及服務價格漲勢「兇猛」，分別達到5.3%和5.7% ，居住類價格同比上漲4.7%。
按照統計局的數據，住房租金相比上月100的基數，上升到104.5%，水電燃料上升到102%。住房租金北京連續上漲52個月，廣州連漲48個月，深圳連漲51個月，如果以10年前的租金為基數，房租上漲了5倍以上。
大陸財經評論家葉檀撰文指出，房地產不是資金的沉澱池，相反，在房地產熱潮期，房地產是資金泡沫的攪拌器，從房地產中生成源源不斷的新貨幣，回流到套現者手中。
鄭志遙：「真正那些賺錢的好的行業，都被那些玻璃門、防彈門擋著進不去，各種資本唯一允許你進去的就是房地產，國家的政策，各地對GDP的依賴，導致各路資金蜂擁進來。」
專家指出，在經濟不景氣的情況下，土地似乎成了目前中共唯一來錢的活水源。葉檀總結，城鎮化建立基礎設施，需要土地變現﹔農民要進城，需要土地變現﹔拆遷救助城市貧民，同樣需要土地變現﹔地方政府的債務負擔增加，可以償債的手段沒有任何變化，稅收不行只有土地政策彌補。
葉檀質疑，以控制預售證的手段抑制房價，不過是一場自欺欺人的秀而已。
採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/孫寧
House Prices Become China’s Life Water During Economic Downturn
China house prices are booming,
and it seems nothing can stop it.
Even Nobel Prize winner Robert Schiller has showed caution
towards predicting what will happen to China’s real estate.
Why is there uncertainty towards China’s real estate,
and that the bubble gets bigger without any puncture?
Let’s see the expert’s analysis.
According to the National Statistical Data Bureau in China,
house prices in large cities rose 9.1% in September 2013.
This is higher, in comparison to the 8.3% in August.
In Beijing, new commercial house prices rose 20.6%.
Shanghai rose 20.4%, with a 20.1% rise in Shenzhen.
House prices in first-tier cities
increased five times in 10 years.
On the other hand, there are now a large number of available
unoccupied houses, in what has been dubbed ghost towns.
Soaring house prices in economic depression made many
economists predict a failure warning for China’s real estate.
This year’s Nobel Prize winner Robert Schiller successfully
predicted the U.S. internet bubble bursting in 2000.
He also predicted the U.S. housing market crisis in
2005-2007, and the global financial tsunami in 2008.
Everyone is looking to Schiller, whether he can
diagnose the troubles of China’s housing market.
However, he has been very cautious
on commenting about this issue.
A few years ago, Schiller said that China’s
housing prices are at a very high level.
This is the case whether making comparisons internationally,
historically, or in terms of income ratio or rental ratio.
This June, he said publicly that there might be
bubbles in China and other countries’ housing market.
This is because of soaring house prices.
In fact, today’s bubble seems so hard that no
one would dare to predict when it could break.
Li Zhiwen, Dean of Zhejiang University Business
School: “The Chinese Communist Party is a bubble.
The real estate might become a bigger
bubble with an unstable political situation.
This is because it is caused by the
effect of the Communist Party.
Since land is under government’s control,
it intentionally becomes a hungry vampire.
If the land is fully market-oriented, it will not rise to this."
A few years ago, the Chinese authorities did
not use any control measures on real estate.
China’s New Deal is without major policies on real estate.
Potential buyers with concerns over house
prices falling are coming back into the market.
Mr. Zheng, China Real Estate Investment advisor:
“There are so many industries involved in house prices.
Breaking the real estate bubble will have
the same result as the financial tsunami."
Living costs have increased considerably
with the significant house price rises.
According to Beijing Statistics Bureau, in September
2013, Beijing’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.3%.
Food, entertainment and educational products
and services prices saw a strong rise.
These rises were 5.3% and 5.7%,
with housing prices rose 4.7%.
According Beijing Statistics Bureau, housing rental
prices rose to 104.5 %, compared to last month.
Water and gas fuel rose to 102%.
Housing rental rose for 52 consecutive months in Beijing,
48 months in Guangzhou and 51 months in Shenzhen.
Housing rental rose 5 times based
on rental prices from 10 years ago.
Ye Tan, a Mainland financial commentator points out
that real estate is not a money sedimentation tank.
On the contrary, it is the ‘real estate bubble blender’.
The new currency generated from real
estate to will give cash back to people.
Mr. Cheng: “The real lucrative industries
are blocked by those bulletproof glass doors.
This only allows real estate to become the focus
of capital, national policy, and local dependence
on GDP, which will lead to various problems."
Experts point out that land seems to be unique life water
for the CCP to make money during economic downturn.
Ye Tan concludes that land is needed to convert
into cash, in the construction of infrastructure, with
farmers moving and demolition of urban poor areas.
With the increase of local debt, there is no
way to pay debt, including tax only land.
Ye Tan questions whether it might be self-deception
to curb housing prices by controlling the sales permits.
