【新唐人2013年10月03日訊】人們一直關注的上海自貿區（自由貿易試驗區），9月29號正式掛牌啟動，中共當局公布了首批25家進駐企業與11家金融機構名單。不過，掛牌儀式非常低調，強力推動上海自貿區的中共總理李克強並沒有參加啟動儀式。分析指出，上海自貿區觸動了中共權貴的既得利益，李克強遭到黨內保守派的強烈反擊。上海自貿區是否能有所成果，成為了李克強的政治賭博。
出席9月29號上海自貿區掛牌儀式的官員，包括上海市委書記韓正和市長楊雄等，而商務部長高虎城是最高級別的中央官員。作為自貿區主打項目的銀行業、證券業和保險業，三大行業的管理機構，只有副手參加。在第二天的「十一」招待會上，李克強例行致辭也一句未提上海自貿區。
旅美中國民運人士、政論家陳破空：「就連李克強本人都心灰意冷，所以在當前中共這種保守的陳舊的思維體系下，它的土壤只適合保守派生存，所以任何改革舉動都難出籠，即便是連上海自貿區，都難以出場，所以足見當今中南海的政治氣候，是何等的嚴酷和肅殺。」
香港《東方日報》發表評論文章說，上海自由貿易區雖然正式掛牌，但困難重重，最終能否成功，目前還難下結論。
陳破空：「李克強是不僅是觸犯了『天條』而且觸動了地頭蛇，觸動了這些保守派的既得利益，李克強受到了強大的阻擊和報復，經濟改革的第一個戰役，應該說被江系保守派，和行行色色的保守派，聯手打敗，應該說上海自貿區雖然是掛牌了，其實已經相當於開始壽終。」
政論家陳破空分析，江派掌控的中國三大電信巨頭：中國電信、中國聯通、中國移動，將在上海自貿區內面對外國對手的直接競爭，這就直接觸動了以江澤民為代表的極端保守勢力。
陳破空：「大家都知道，中國的電信行業，至少半壁河山以上是被江澤民家族所霸佔，他的長子江綿恆，原來搞的中國網通，後來以少吃多，吞掉了中國聯通，而且在背後控制中國電信和中國移動，上海自貿區又是江系的老巢，其中的現在的所謂市長楊雄，也是來自於江綿恆的手下。」
早前，香港《南華早報》曾報導，為實現國際接軌，上海自貿區將取消網路封鎖；這一報導很快遭到中共當局否認，喉舌《人民日報》，甚至發表專文，對這一報導冷嘲熱諷。
陳破空認為，這是李克強代表的改革派，通過《南華早報》放風試水；保守派則通過他們一手操控的《人民日報》，攻擊自貿區的網絡解禁是搞「政治租界」。
陳破空：「實際上中共，最近三十多年來成為暴發戶，就是靠的國際資本自由化，國際資本才能進入中國。但是中共擺出的姿態就是說，想利用國際資本這塊肥肉鞏固自己的政權，在保守派看李克強是犯了天條，不僅鼓動資本自由化，還要鼓動信息自由化，因此對李克強進行圍剿。」
陳破空觀察，上海自由貿易區遭到保守派的強烈的阻擊，目前只能低調舉行掛牌儀式。他認為，上海自貿區已經成為李克強的一場賭博，如果成功，李克強的權力則將會穩固。
時事評論員夏小強分析，經濟改革的本質是政治層面的互動，目前，中共向外界展示出的卻是政治層面的不可碰觸。那麼，李克強的經濟改革能走多遠，都是未知數。外界至少看到，中共高層正在圍繞上海自貿區展開激烈的政治博弈。
採訪編輯/常春 後製/李勇
Shanghai Free Trade Zone – Li Keqiang’s Political Gamble
The Shanghai FTZ (pilot free trade zone) opened on Sept. 29.
Some 25 companies and 11 financial institutions were given
permissions to operate.
However, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang who pioneered the FTZ
was absent from the ceremony.
The FTZ was analyzed to challenge the vested
interests of the communist elite.
Li Keqiang’s political gamble lies with the FTZ and the
resistance from party conservatives.
Shanghai Party Secretary Han Zheng, Mayor Yang Xiong,
and Minister of Commerce Gao Hucheng attended
the FTZ opening on Sept. 29.
The FTZ flagship sectors in banking, securities and insurance
participated in the opening with deputies only.
On the 1st October at the national reception,
Li Keqiang said nothing about the FTZ.
Chen Pokung, commentator:"Under communism, only the conservative old force survives.
Any reform, even the Shanghai Free Trading Zone,
will meet resistance.
The politics in Zhongnanhai are harsh and chilling."
Hong Kong based Oriental Daily also questioned the
outlook of the Shanghai FTZ.
Chen Pokung:"Li Keqiang has crossed the line, from the hidden rules of the
party to the political faction and those
who share vested interests.
He has met with strong resistance and retaliation.
In the first battle of economic reform, Jiang Zemin’s and
the conservative factions have won.
The opening of the Shanghai FTZ also signals
the end of the economic reform."
Commentator Chen Pokung analyzes the FTZ exposes
China’s three telecom giants, China Telecom, China Unicom,
and China Mobile, to foreign competitors.
This will hit the extreme conservative force, Jiang Zemin’s
faction, the direct controller of the three telecom giants.
Chen Pokung:"Everyone knows Jiang’s family controls half of
China’s telecom industry.
His son, Jiang Mianheng, invests in China Netcom and controls
China Telecom and China mobile;
Shanghai is Jiang’s lair; even the Mayor Yang Xiong used to
work for Jiang Mianheng."
Hong Kong based South China Morning Post reported earlier
that the FTZ will free the Internet blockade
to meet international standards.
However, it soon earned criticism from state media
such as the People’s Daily.
Chen Pokung indicates that the South China Morning Post report
is just a litmus test from Li Keqiang’s faction.
The conservative faction hit back with their mouthpiece,
People’s Daily, and claimed the lifting of the internet
blockade is a"political settlement"in the FTZ.
Chen Pokung:"The Communist regime has relied on international free trade
to allow international capital inflow and become the nouveau
riche in the past 30 years.
However, to secure personal political power through
international free trade is crossing the line.
Li Keqiang is therefore under siege for his intention in
capital freedom and freedom of information."
Chen Pokung believes resistance from the conservatives caused
the FTZ ceremony to play low.
He indicates that the FTZ is a gamble from Li Keqiang.
His political stance will be secured if the FTZ succeeds.
Commentator Xia Xiaoqiang indicates, the essence of economic
reform originates from politics.
The communist regime has demonstrated
its untouchable politics.
It is unknown how far Li Keqiang’s economic reform will go.
However, it is clear that an intense political struggle is
taking place along with the Shanghai Free Trading Zone.
Interview and Edit / Chang Chun Post-production /
