【新唐人2013年09月28日訊】即將開幕的上海自貿區引發沸沸揚揚的討論和期待。不同消息來源透露，自貿區將試行貨幣自由兌換和利率自由化，相當於在貨幣之牆上砸開一個口子。由於金融是沒有邊界的，專家相信，貨幣自由兌換無法完全局限於上海自貿區，而是將滲透到整個中國。貨幣之牆的口子會越撕越大。不過，中共的經濟政策以快速增長為主導，忽視穩步發展，上海自貿區的前景將會如何呢？請看分析。
上海自貿區在中共總理李克強的強力推動下，將於9月29號正式掛牌並公布32項相關細則。由於今夏透露出的不同消息暗示一些官員想要做大，外界對它的期望很高。一些報導暗示說，對於這個區域的銀行賬戶利率將完全自由化。其他人暗示，對於這個區域的企業，北京將完全開放關閉的資本賬戶。也許外國電信公司將被允許在這個區域投資，最終跟國內手機服務巨頭，比如中國移動展開競爭。
原國家體改委官員，現任北京思源社會科學研究中心總裁的曹思源認為，跟過去30年裡中國大大小小的經濟特區相比，上海自貿區的不同之處在於，推出較大的外貿進出口權和外匯兌換權。不過，曹思源的理解是，只有成功申請加入上海自貿區的企業，才享有外匯兌換自由的權利。
北京思源社會科學研究中心總裁曹思源：「並不是任何人都可以跑到上海自由兌換。你申請加入上海自貿區，當然需要有一定的條件，要辦一定的手續，這些條件和手續齊備的情況下，你這個企業就有這種權利了。」
英國《路透社》9月16號引述渣打銀行分析說，上海貿易區存在一個難以平衡的矛盾。如果當局限制公司只能在上海自貿區進行它們所有的業務，影響力將是非常小的。而如果在這個區域放開的金融服務可以提供給中國的任何公司，那麼它將基本上開放了它的資本賬戶，導致資本噴湧而出。
中國人民大學公共政策研究院執行副院長毛壽龍教授表示，經濟自由貿易區是比較重要的一個概念，它對於經濟的全球化、包括發展市場經濟是非常有利的一種做法。
美國商業雜誌《福布斯》9月15號發表華裔作家章家敦的文章說，幾乎每一個中國經濟專家都在關注上海自貿區的消息，因為當局將在中國貨幣之牆上砸開一個驚人的洞。
毛壽龍教授也認為，金融是不可能有壁壘的，因此貨幣自由兌換無法完全局限在上海自貿區。
中國人民大學公共政策研究院執行副院長毛壽龍：「錢實際上是沒有身份證的，而且也沒有國界。所以你看在進行金融市場化改革的時候，一方面肯定是局限於這個區域的範圍，另外一方面，肯定跟它甚麼級別的關係可以進入，它還是有一定的開放空間。但並不是說所有的企業、所有的金融都可以在那兒自由兌換，否則的話，等於是全部放開了。」
毛壽龍教授質疑，如果當局把貨幣自由兌換僅僅局限在上海自貿區，那這個自由化改革有甚麼意義呢？
美國《華爾街日報》9月26號報導指出，過去30年，中共在中國各地建立了無數大大小小的經濟特區，但是仍然拒絕擁抱從這些特區學到的經驗，全面鋪開經濟自由化，因為他們知道，自由化將削弱他們的權力。目前的證據更多的表明，中國的特別經濟區僅僅是為了取得快速增長而不是穩步推進自由化。
採訪編輯/秦雪 後製/李智遠
The Shanghai Free Trade Area, FTA is opening soon which has
raised many discussions and expectations.
Different sources say, currency exchanging freely and interest
rate liberalization will equate to breaking a hole in the wall.
Experts believe that currency exchanging freely cannot be
completely confined to the Shanghai FTA, but will permeate
through the whole of China with unbounded finance.
The hole in the wall of money will grow bigger and bigger.
What are the prospects of a Shanghai FTA with
Chinese Communist Party CCP economic policy leading
to rapid growth but ignoring steady development.
Let’s take a look at the analysis.
On 29th September, the Shanghai Free Trade Area, FTA strongly,
promoted by the Chinese Premier Li Keqiang will be officially
established and will publish 32 related detailed rules.
Outside expectation is fairly high since some officials want
it to become more of an influence as revealed this summer.
Bank account interest rates will be fully liberalized in this
region and Beijing will completely open the
closed capital account as hinted.
Maybe foreign telecommunications companies will be allowed
to invest in this area, and compete with the domestic mobile
services giants such as China Mobile eventually.
Former State Commission official and current Beijing Siyuan
Social Sciences Research Centre CEO Cao Siyuan thinks
compared to China’s special economic zones over the past
30 years, large and small, the Shanghai Free Trade Area has
more import and export rights and Foreign Exchange Authority.
However, Cao Siyuan’s understanding is that only successful
enterprises that join the Shanghai FTA can enjoy
the right of foreign exchange freely.
Beijing Siyuan Social Sciences Research Center CEO Cao Siyuan:
To join the Shanghai FTA and enjoy exchange freely, you have
to meet certain conditions and complete certain formalities.
On 16th September, British “Reuters” quoted
Standard Chartered Bank analysts said
there is an unbalanced contradiction
in the Shanghai trading zone.
The influence will be very small if the authority limited
companies to do all their business in
the Shanghai trading zone.
However, if the financial services can be offered to any
company in China, it will basically open up its capital
account and result in capital spewing out.
The Public Policy Institute of Renmin University executive
VP, Professor Mao Shoulong said, the economic free trading
zone is a more important concept.
It is very favorable for the global economy and the
development of market economy.
On 15th September, U.S. business magazine “Forbes"
published Chinese writer Zhang Jiadun’s article stated
almost every Chinese economic expert is concerned about
the Shanghai FTA, because the authorities will break down
an amazing hole in the Chinese currency wall.
Professor Mao Shoulong also believes that freely currency
exchange cannot be completely confined to the Shanghai Free
Trade because it is impossible to have financial barriers.
The Public Policy Institute of Renmin University executive
VP, Professor Mao Shoulong: money has no identity and borders.
You can see the Financial Marketization reform has limited
scope on the one hand;
it still has room to open up on the other.
It doesn’t mean all businesses and financial institutes can
exchange freely there, otherwise it is equal
to full liberalization.
Professor Mao Shoulong questioned what is the meaning of
the liberalization reforms, if the authorities confined
exchanging currency freely to the Shanghai trading zone.
On 26th September, the US “Wall Street Journal" reported that
in the past 30 years, the CCP had established numerous SEZ
(special economic zones) in China, large and small, but still
refused to embrace the lessons learned from these SEZ.
As they know economy liberalization in full swing would result
in the weakening of their authority.
At present, more evidence shows that China’s special economic
zones exist to just achieve rapid growth rather
than be steadily liberalized.
