今年4月份，浙江省奉化市房地产开发商“浙江兴润置业”(Zhejiang Xinrun Real Estate Co.)，欠下35亿元巨额债务，因资不抵债而破产。而浙江杭州市的“中都集团”(Zhongdou Group)，也在6月份因欠资20亿，不得不倒闭。
采访/易如 编辑/宋风 后制/李智远
Real Estate Panic Arrived, First-Tier Cities Slump 40%
This May, housing prices in China dropped for the first time
in two years, which makes more and more people
in real estate worry: Will China’s property market collapse?
In fact, this fear is becoming a reality.
The latest statistics show that for first half of this year,
the trade volume of residential growth in first-tier cities
dropped 30 percent to 40 percent, forcing more and more
local governments to secretly lighten the buying restriction
policy to rescue the market.
The largest property agency in the Asia-Pacific region,
Centaline Property Agency, has released data saying Beijing’s
total new residential contracts reached nearly 23,000 units
by June 26 this year, which is nearly 49 percent less than 2013.
The number of contracts and contracted area
reached their lowest value in the past 9 years;
the total turnover rate fell 38 percent compared to last year.
Meanwhile, Beijing forward delivery housing and existing
housing “Inventory" reached almost 81,000 units,
a new peak in the past 18 months.
Accumulated turnover of Shenzhen commercial residential
areas and the number of units dropped by 40 percent and
42 percent respectively compared to the first half of last year;
Shanghai new commercial housing sales fell 31 percent.
In addition, eleven districts of Guangzhou’s first hand
residential sales area decreased 30 percent over last year’s.
Frank Tian Xie, professor at University of South Carolina,
Aiken School of Business: “Buyers should now wait and see.
I think now is definitely not the time to buy.
No one wants to buy property that will soon lose it’s value."
Xie says all China’s real estate manifestations are
the precursor of a bubble burst.
The combination of the Chinese Communist Party
and real estate business has blown China’s real estate bubble
too big, and it’s just a matter of time before it bursts.
In fact, many real estate enterprises
have encountered difficulties.
This April, real estate enterprise Zhejiang Xinrun Real Estate
went bankrupt when it couldn’t pay a debt of $564 million.
Zhongdou Group also had to close down this June
due to being unable to pay a debt of $300 million.
In fact, China’s housing prices are declining faster and faster.
The China Index Research Institute recently released
its “monthly 100 city price index,"
which says June housing prices fell 0.5 percent since May,
while prices in May fell 0.2 percent since April.
Hangzhou housing prices decreased a full 2 percent
within the month of June.
The China Real Estate Information Corporation (CRIC) noted
that China’s property market will see further price cuts.
Wall Street Journal says that the persistent decline
of China’s real estate market will result in five kinds of losers:
House owners, real estate developers, banks,
shadow banks and local governments.
Wall Street Journal says that, along with falling housing prices,
the loans of many home owners are higher than the
price of a new house.
Local governments, which rely heavily on land premiums,
will suffer a heavy blow.
According to an audit of local government debt announced
by China’s National Audit Office, this year is not only seeing
the peak of local governments’ paying back of loans,
but many local governments also still rely
mainly on land premiums to pay back debts.
For example, Shanghai Brilliance Credit Rating & Investors
Service revealed that over half of Guangdong province’s
revenue comes from land transfer payments.
Shanghai’s annual land transfer payments
are around $16 billion.
Due to the current real estate situation, many local
governments have challenged the central government’s
policy of “purchase restriction".
Wuhan Housing Authority will lighten the purchase policy
on local residents buying a third suite, and foreigners buying
a second suite; Hohhot issued a formal announcement to
cancel the purchase restriction; Beijing’s price restriction
policy is also quietly loosening.
According to incomplete statistics, since this year, Hangzhou,
Tianjin, Nanjing, and other provinces, secretly loosened up
on the purchase restriction policy.
Meanwhile, more than 20 cities have been trying to save
themselves by lightening settlement conditions.
Frank Tian Xie: “Local governments continue to promote
and enlarge China’s real estate bubble,
using this opportunity to achieve their own interests
and the interests of the elite class as soon as possible."
Xie says China has no actual real estate market,
because the Chinese Communist Party
has never given up control over the land.
The ordinary people cannot get land or home ownership.
Thus, China’s real estate market is only a false arbitrage,
full of traps, and is just a place to cheat people’s money.
Interview/YiRu Edit/SongFeng Post-Production/Lizhiyuan