【新唐人2012年7月7日讯】随着北京市新一届市委领导班子出炉，中共省级大员换届基本结束，十八大的序幕也正式拉起。在目前的省级大员名单中，谁将最有可能在十八大上跻身政治局常委呢？我们请来了评论员为大家解读。同时，专家特别指出，即使十八大照常召开，也救不了末日中共。
7月3号，郭金龙取代刘淇担任北京市市委书记，大陆31个省、自治区、直辖市到此全部完成党委换届。
海外中文媒体报导指出，如无意外，十八大将在今年十月举行，北戴河会议也将在七八月召开。在目前的省级大员中，上海市委书记俞正声、广东省委书记汪洋、天津市委书记张高丽以及重庆市委书记张德江，将最有可能进入政治局常委。其中，团派出身的汪洋是目前入常“呼声”最高的一位。
对此，时事评论员史达认为，汪洋入常应该没有问题。
史达：“一方面他得到胡锦涛的极力支持。汪洋作为个人，可能也是不错的一个人，他会支持改革、体恤民意。然后中共也需要唱红脸的一个人，代表一个亲民的形象。但是，他的实权可能不会那么大。”
不过，独立评论员吴建国提出，中共历来官场选人都是先考虑他的派系，像媒体报导中提到的那些江派人物，要想进入政治局常委，难度比较大。
吴建国：“胡温在过去十年就饱受江派人马的制衡，政治局常委大多数都是江派人马， 如今胡温好不容易才掌控大权，怎么能轻易让江派的人马又来制衡（自己）呢？”
“中国社会民主党”中央委员会主持人刘因全分析，俞正声的上海帮和江派色彩浓重，对他入常有不利影响。而俞正声跟着江泽民犯下的不少罪行，也是难以洗刷。
此外，最近有消息传出，某中共国安部副部长秘书出卖大量机密给美国中情局，再次勾起外界对俞正声的哥哥——俞强生叛逃美国事件的回忆。这些不利因素都让他的入常变数加大。
“中国社会民主党”中央委员会主持人刘因全：“这四个人我看入常可能性最大的是汪洋，第二大的是张高丽，俞正声和张德江入常的变数很大，俞正声还有一个问题就是他的年龄偏大，因为他现在已经67周岁了。当然如果在10月份开，那俞正声这一条就切不了他。”
至于另一江派人物张德江，由于他在处理“温州动车事件”和重庆万盛和双桥群体抗暴事件中，手法不当，激起民愤，所以刘因全认为，他的入常变数也大增。
刘因全：“张高丽，他在江泽民当权的时候一贯是紧跟江泽民，江泽民犯的那些罪他也有份的，比如说打击法轮功，镇压异议人士。但是我们看到张高丽最近开始和江派切割。”
张高丽曾在今年的中共两会期间高调声称，自己本身就是个苦孩子。外界认为这是张向胡温示好。不过，由于张高丽最近涉嫌隐瞒“天津莱德商厦火灾”真相，入常变数也大增。
史达分析认为，新一代的中共掌权者，不应该选择有江派背景和迫害法轮功的“血债派”人马，因为他们一定会绑架其他执政者。而十八大即使如期召开，也救不了中共。史达说，中共靠“骗”和“杀”的统治手法，在最近的“四川什坊事件”中已逐渐失效。
史达：“这次有的武警说‘我不镇压了’，老百姓说‘我不怕死了’。中共统治的两条腿真的是全部要断了。所以反过来讲，可能十八大，中共不知道能不能走到那一天，就是走到的话，也不会走太久。”
吴建国指出，如今的中国就像1911年的中国一样，民怨沸腾，一个小小的事件，就可能引爆大规模推翻专制集权的运动。
采访/常春 编辑/王子琦 后制/萧宇
New CCP Provincial Leaders On Board, Experts Analyze the Four Politburo Standing Committee Candidates
With the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Beijing leadership
change, the new CCP provincial leaders are finalized.
The CCP is ready for the 18th National Congress.
Of the current provincial leaders’ included on the list,
who will be the members of the Politburo Standing Committee?
Let’s see commentator opinions.
Experts emphasize that even if the 18th National Congress
progresses well, it cannot save the CCP, which is in its final phase.
On July 3, Guo Jinlong replaced Liu Qi as the CCP secretary
of Beijing city.
Thus far, all 31 CCP provincial leadership positions changed.
Overseas Chinese media reported that the 18th National
Congress will be held in October this year, and the Beidaihe Meeting will be held in July or August.
Within the current CCP provincial secretaries, Yu Zhengsheng
from Shanghai, Wang Yang from Guangdong, Zhang Gaoli from Tianjin and Zhang Dejiang from Chongqing,
who has the most opportunity to be members of
Politburo Standing Committee?
Among them, Wang Yang has the most support.
Shi Da, a current affairs commentator, thinks there’s
no problem with Wang Yang becoming a member.
Shi Da: ”On one side, he has strong support from Hu Jintao.
Wang Yang is not a bad person.
He supports reform and takes care of people.
Also, CCP needs a person to play the “red face,”
to present the CCP in a kind light to people.
But he won’t hold much power.”
Wu Jianguo, an independent commentator, pointed out that
leaders always promote their faction members within the CCP,
and as media mentioned, it’ll be difficult for Jiang Zemin’s
faction to become members of Politburo Standing Committee.
Wu Jianguo: “Hu-Wen was restrained by Jiang’s faction
in the last ten years, and most of the members of the Politburo Standing Committee were Jiang’s faction.
Now, Hu and Wen control the power finally.
How can they easily relinquish power to Jiang’s faction?”
Liu Yinquan, the chairman of China Social Democratic Party
Central Committee, analyzed that Yu Zhengsheng, member
of Shanghai faction and Jiang Zemin’s faction,
will be blocked from entering the Politburo.
Yu Zhengsheng also followed Jiang Zemin
to commit many evils. His crimes can’t be cleared.
In addition, it was exposed recently that the secretary
of Vice Minister of CCP National Security Ministry sold
a large amount of secret documents to the CIA in the US,
which recalled the memory of Yu Qiangsheng, Yu Zhengsheng’s brother, fleeing to the U.S.
All these negative factors may block Yu Zhengsheng from
becoming the member of Politburo Standing Committee.
Liu Yinquan: “Out of those four, I think Wang Yang
has the most possibility. The second is Zhang Gaoli.
Yu Zhengsheng and Zhang Dejiang have difficulty becoming
members. Yu is not young, as he is 67 years old.
Of course, if the congress can be held in October,
age will not limit him.”
The other Jiang faction member, Zhang Dejiang,
didn’t make the right decision with the Wenzhou Train Crash,
Chonqing Wansheng incident, and Shuangqiao Mass incident,
which angered the people.
So, Liu Yinquan thinks that it’s difficult for him to enter
the Politburo Standing Committee.
Liu Yinquan: ”Further more, Zhang Gaoli followed
Jiang Zemin when Jiang was in power.
He had involved himself in Jiang’s crimes like suppressing
Falun Gong and dissidents.
But we see Zhang Gaoli is trying to separate himself
from Jiang.”
During the CCP’s two sessions, Zhang Gaoli had said,
in a high-profile manner, that he had a bitter childhood.
Outsiders speculate that this was a display of support
for Hu-Wen.
But Zhang Gaoli is suspected of concealing the truth
of the Tianjin Ryder Commercial Center’s fire, which makes it’s more difficult for him to enter Politburo.
Shi Da thinks the new CCP leadership should not include
anyone with a Jiang Zemin faction background,
or any Blood Debt Faction members involved in the
persecution of Falun Gong, because those people may abduct other rulers.
Furthermore, even if the 18th National Congress
can be held on time, it can’t save CCP.
Shi Da said the CCP uses cheating and killing to control,
but it couldn’t affect the “Sichuan Shifang Incident.”
Shi Da: ”During the Shifang incident, some armed police said,
‘I don’t suppress’, some civilians said ‘I’m not afraid of death.’
The two legs that CCP used to control are going to be broken.
Conversely, we are not sure whether the CCP can survive
until the 18th National Congress.
Even if the answer is yes, it cannot go further much longer.”
Wu Jianguo pointed out that the current China is like
it was in 1911.
People are suffering tremendously, and a small incident
may trigger a large scale movement that overthrows the dictatorial centralization.
