【新唐人北京時間2018年08月02日訊】【世事關心】(475)川普能否與墨西哥左翼總統開啟合作之路?

墨西哥選出了一位新總統。這是否會影響到重開北美自由貿易協定談判?
Mexico elected a new president; what is the prospect of a NAFTA renegotiation?

Stephen Moore(美國傳統基金會「經濟增長計劃」訪問學者):「在我們華盛頓中期選舉之前3、4個月或5個月裏,他們能否通過新的北美自由貿易協定,我有點懷疑。而且那個時候如果民主黨人控制了國會,那麼通過的機會就更小了。」
Steven Moore Soundbites: 「I’m a little skeptical about whether they’re going to be able to get this done in the next three or four or five months before our midterm elections here in Washington, and then if the Democrats take over Congress, they will be more skeptical of giving Trump a victory on anything.」

關於美國與墨西哥邊境地區發生的家庭分離事件,有哪些不為人知的事實呢?
What are the facts about family separations at the border that people don’t hear about?

Shawn Steel(共和黨全國委員會委員/Shawn Steel法律事務所創始人兼CEO):「大家知道,這個問題後來證明被誇大了,幾乎就是假新聞。例如,最近有大約12,000名未成年人偷渡進入美國,在這12,000人中,10,000個孩子沒有父母。」
Shawn Steel Soundbites: 「You know, this is a – it turns out to be such an exaggerated issue, it’s almost fake news. For example, there’s some 12,000 minors that are involved right now, recently, in smuggling into the United States. Of the 12,000, 10,000 have no parents at all. 」

在邊境安全問題上,墨西哥、美國會聯手合作嗎?
Will Mexico and America be able to work on border security issues together?

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):歡迎收看《世事關心》,我是蕭茗。上周,墨西哥選出了一位左翼新總統­­——洛佩茲·奧夫拉多爾。他在競選中呼籲終結腐敗與貧富不均,他的獲勝結束了體制革命黨長達一個世紀的統治。與2016年美國總統大選結果非常相似的是,奧夫拉多爾的勝出,同樣給墨西哥政壇帶來了一場大地震。他不僅向控制墨西哥數十年之久的「權力黑手黨」宣戰,而且還在墨美關係問題上堅決捍衛墨西哥的利益。那麼,未來美國與墨西哥之間的關係,在川普奧夫拉多爾這兩位彼此對立的平民主義者主導下,又會如何發展呢?本期節目我們就來分析一下兩國之間最大的三個問題:移民、邊境安全、和貿易。
Welcome to《 Zooming In》, I’m Simone Gao. Last week, Mexico elected a new president. Leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador who campaigned on ending corruption and economic inequality ended the century long dominance by the Institutional Revolutionary Party. Much like the 2016 presidential election in the U.S., Mr. Obrador’s win brought a political earthquake to his country. He not only pledged a war against the “mafia of powers” that has controlled Mexico for decades, but also stood up for Mexico in relations with its northern neighbor. So how will the future of U.S.-Mexico relations work with two populist presidents who are on opposite sides of the aisle? In this episode, we’ll analyze the three biggest issues in U.S.-Mexico relations: immigration, border security, and trade.

安德烈斯·曼紐爾·洛佩斯·奧夫拉多爾,在支持者中被稱為AMLO。上周在墨西哥總統大選中贏得了全國53%的選票。與他最接近的對手只贏得了20%的選票。這次壓倒性的勝利表明,墨西哥選民迫切希望根治多年來困擾國家的腐敗和暴力。奧夫拉多爾的競選承諾是:推翻被他稱為墨西哥「權力黑手黨」 、執政的制度革命黨(PRI)。該黨統治著墨西哥政壇,整個二十世紀基本上都是如此。近代史上,只是到了奧夫拉多爾才出現了第二位左傾候選人當選。
Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known as AMLO among supporters, won over 53 percent of nationwide votes in Mexico’s presidential election last week. His closest competitor won just 20 percent. The landslide win shows how frustrated Mexican voters are with the corruption and violence that has plagued the country for years. Obrador campaigned on the promise to oust what he called Mexico’s 「mafia of power」, referring to the governing Institutional Revolution Party, or PRI. The PRI dominated Mexican politics for most of the 20th century. Obrador is just the second left-leaning candidate elected in recent history.

候任總統奧夫拉多爾來自墨西哥南部。與全國其它地區相比,墨西哥南部比較貧困。他的支持者們認為,奧夫拉多爾代表了窮人和那些自感被前任領導人忽略了的民眾的利益。
President-elect Obrador is from Southern Mexico, which is poor compared to the rest of the country. Supporters feel he represents the interests of the poor and others who felt ignored by previous leaders.

但是,奧夫拉多爾當選,未來將如何影響美國、墨西哥之間的關係?兩位總統都是平民主義者、國家主義者,他們會彼此妥協嗎?川普總統已打電話,向奧夫拉多爾表示祝賀,並預言他們之間將會建立起良好的關係。
But how will his election affect the future of U.S.-Mexico relations? Can two populist, nationalist presidents compromise? President Trump called to congratulate Obrador and predicts they’ll have a good relationship.

川普總統:「我和墨西哥候任總統通了話。我們談了一個半小時,談得很好。我們的談話涉及邊境安全、貿易、北美自由貿易協定、和一項美墨雙邊協定。在很多議題上我們都談得很好,我們兩人關係處的不錯。當然,許多事情還要看未來發展。」
President Trump: 「I spoke with the president-elect of Mexico. We had a great conversation, about a half and hour long. We talked about border security; we talked about trade; we talked about NAFTA; we talked about a seperate deal, just Mexico and the United States. We had a lot of good conversation. I think the relationship will be a very good one. We’ll see what happens.」

奧夫拉多爾呼籲改善與美國之間的關係。
Obrador called for better relations with the U.S..

墨西哥候任總統奧夫拉多爾:「我們願意在友誼和發展的基礎上建立與美國的關係。我們堅持美墨雙方要互相尊重,同時一定要維護在美墨僑的利益。 」
Andrés Manuel López Obrador( Mexican President-Elect): 「We will search for a relationship with the U.S. government based on friendship and development, always inculcated with mutual respect and in defense of our compatriots, immigrants who live and work in that country.」

墨西哥和美國都必須解決的一個主要的問題就是邊境安全。今年5月,川普政府宣佈對非法移民採取「零容忍」政策,授權對每一個非法入境者進行刑事起訴。這項政策產生的一個意想不到的後果是,在等待起訴期間孩子需要與父母分開。美國主流媒體一直在集中報導這一問題。6月20日,經過民眾數周抗議後,川普總統簽署了一項不讓家人分開的行政命令。
One major issue both Mexico and the U.S. will have to work together on is border security. The Trump administration announced its 「zero tolerance」 approach to illegal immigration in May, which mandated criminal prosecution for each immigrant who enters illegally. An unintended consequence of the policy is that children were separated from their parents while they awaited prosecution. The U.S. mainstream media has been making a focused effort on reporting this issue. On June 20th, after weeks of protests, President Trump signed an executive order to keep families together.

大多數非法進入美國的移民來自中美洲。墨西哥駐美國大使費爾南德斯 7月3日在哈德遜研究所的一次活動中說,這其中的責任在中美洲各國和墨西哥,而不在美國。
Most migrants entering the U.S. illegally are from Central America. In a July 3rd event at the Hudson Institute, Mexican Ambassador Gerónimo Gutiérrez Fernández said the responsibility is on Central American countries and Mexico, not the U.S.

費爾南德斯(墨西哥駐美國大使):「我們必須從根本上解決移民問題,但是很難。 墨西哥和中美洲國家必須竭盡所能,讓自己的國民能夠在家鄉安居樂業。美國對此沒有責任,這是我們的責任和義務。我們歡迎美國政府在移民問題上的協助,我們歡迎長期以來為實現地區繁榮和穩定而採取的各項措施。我認為墨西哥和中美洲國家在解決移民問題上做得不夠,這一點必須改變,我認為應該承認這一點。」
Gerónimo Gutiérrez Fernández, Mexican Ambassador :「You need to address the root causes of migration, and that’s not easy. We must do everything we can — Mexico, Central America — to make sure that immigration is not a forced decision as it has happened in the past, majority of the cases. That’s not the responsibility of the United States. That’s on us, I think. We certainly welcome the support of the United States in that regard, and the measures that have been taken over the years to address prosperity and security in the region are welcome. I think we should do enough. We have not done enough. I think it is appropriate to recognize that. 」

費爾南德斯大使稱,要遏制非法移民,有三件重要的事情他們需要做。
Ambassador Gutiérrez Fernández says there are three important things they need to do to curb illegal immigration.

費爾南德斯(墨西哥駐美國大使):「各國應該彼此合作,各盡所能,避免各自的國民因為生計無著落或其它原因背井離鄉。另一個我們必須認真對待的問題是,在21世紀,始終都會有人口向北流動的現象。我認為所有各方都希望這種流動能夠在有序、安全、與合法的條件下進行。我們有辦法做到這一點嗎?各國之間和各國內部為此都盡力了嗎?最後,我們還必須解決販賣人口問題,這是嚴重的犯罪,並且一直存在著。」
Gerónimo Gutiérrez Fernández, Mexican Ambassador: (clip 00008.MTS 09:38) Work together to do everything we can so people are not forced out of their countries because of lack of opportunity or any other reason. The second thing is that we should think carefully about — there will continue to be movement of people because that’s just a fact of the century that we’re living in. I think everybody wants for that movement to occur in a way that’s legal, safe, and orderly. Do we have sufficient avenues for that? Are we working enough among the countries and within the countries to make sure that that is happening? And then, finally, we need to address very head-on human smuggling and trafficking, which is terrible. And it’s happening.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):為了瞭解美國的立場,我採訪了共和黨全國委員會委員、SHAWN STEEL 律師事務所創始人兼首席執行官肖恩·斯蒂爾。他不在加利福尼亞州。
For a U.S. perspective, I talked to Shawn Steel, Republican National Committeeman, the founder and CEO of Shawn Steel Law Firm. He is based out of California.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「您對川普總統的『零容忍』移民政策,和終止家庭分離的行政命令有何評價? 川普總統是否持了中庸之道?」
「How would you comment on President Trump’s “zero tolerance” immigration policy combined with the executive order of ending family separations? Is it the right balance?」

Shawn Steel(共和黨全國委員會委員/Shawn Steel法律事務所創始人兼CEO):「『零容忍』政策是為了嘗試修復支離破碎的美國移民系統。美國擁有全世界最寬大的移民政策。我們歡迎每年超過一百萬的合法移民、五十萬名國際留學生,以及數十萬長期簽證持有者來到美國。在這一方面沒有一個國家—— 世界上其它國家的數字加起來,也遠不及美國。然而,有太多人在南部邊境鑽空子,未經許可進入美國,沒有合法身份證明,這擾亂了我們的移民系統。川普總統正試圖改變這一局勢。奧巴馬時期,情形每況愈下。前任多數總統都忽視了移民政策的重要性,國會對此也沒有採取什麼措施,而川普總統正試圖採取果斷並且大膽的舉措,以阻止人們未經許可、未經合法途徑來到這裡。比如,有數百萬亞洲人已合法地申請移民美國、和正在等待申請被審批。以我們家為例,我們也得等,我的幾位親人也是等了10年才來到美國的,這是合法的途徑。而那些非法越境的人、作弊的人、不排隊的人,豈止是不公平,而且是不道德的、違法的。」
Shawn Steel: 「 It’s an attempt to fix a very broken system. American immigration is the most generous in the world. We happily accept over one million legal immigrants a year; we happily accept 500 thousand students a year, and then many hundreds of thousands of long-term visa holders. No country – all the countries in the world combined do not equal how generous the United States is. However, we have too many people at the Southern border taking advantage, coming to the country without permission, without paperwork, that are upsetting our immigration system. So Trump is trying to fix it. Obama made it much, much worse. Most presidents have ignored it, Congress doesn’t do much about it, so Trump is trying to take something decisive and bold to discourage people from coming here without permission, without trying to go through the paperwork. For example, Simone, I’ll mention that there’s several million Asians that have applied legally, that are waiting their turn. In my family’s case, we had to wait, for some family members, 10 years to get to America. That’s the right way to do it. People that are kind of getting to the border, cheating, jumping in line, not only is it unfair, it’s immoral and illegal.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「家庭分離是眼下的熱門話題。很顯然,我們不願意看到兒童與父母分離。然而,舉一個相似的例子,如果美籍家長犯罪入獄,不得不與子女分離,不也是時常發生嗎?」
「Family separation is a big topic now. Obviously, we don’t want children to be separated from their families. However, how does this situation compare to, say, when an American single parent commits a crime and needs to be sent to jail and be separated from his or her child?」

Shawn Steel(共和黨全國委員會委員/Shawn Steel法律事務所創始人兼CEO):「大家知道,這一情況被誇大其詞,幾乎就是假新聞。例如,最近有大約12,000名未成年人偷渡進入美國。其中的10,000個孩子沒有父母。他們中的一些人年僅六歲,就被一些蛇頭帶到了美國邊境。我們發現的是,在某些情況下這些問題要歸咎於孩子的父母。孩子的父母或親戚帶著他們,穿過危險的地區偷渡進美國。這對孩子們來說很危險。例如,從危地馬拉偷渡到墨西哥的年輕女性、小女孩,其中80%的人在這1,500英裏的旅程中被性騷擾。所以那些鼓勵孩子來美國的人、他們的父母,正在對自己的孩子做出可怕的、違法的行為。但是,請記住,85%的孩子既沒有父親也沒有母親,所以不是什麼分離的問題。然而,因為我們是一個慷慨的國家,不像亞洲的一些國家,例如, 日本人永遠不會容忍類似情況發生;韓國人也不會容忍,每當有非法移民偷渡進入時,他們會被迅速帶走,逮捕和遣返。在美國,我們養活他們,給他們地方住,讓他們有學上,然後在經歷了漫長的法律程序後,他們才被驅逐出境。這太不應該了,大多數美國人對此都很不滿。」
Shawn Steel: 「You know, this is a – it turns out to be such an exaggerated issue, it’s almost fake news. For example, there’s some 12,000 minors that are involved right now, recently, in smuggling into the United States. Of the 12,000, 10,000 have no parents at all. Some of them are as young as six years old, and they’re pushed to cross the border by some coyote, by some smuggler, human smuggler. What we’re discovering is an atrocious human rights problem created, in some cases, by the parents. Parents or relatives of the children are bringing their kids, they’re smuggling their kids through dangerous territory. It’s dangerous for the kids. For example, young women, young girls that are smuggled from Guatemala to Mexico, 80 percent of them get molested by somebody in the 1,500 mile journey. So the people that are encouraging children to come, the parents that bring them, are doing a terrible, wrongful act against their own children. But, remember, 85 percent of the children don’t have parents from either side, so there’s no separation, and, yet, because we’re a generous country, unlike every country in Asia, for example – the Japanese would never tolerate this; the Koreans would never tolerate it. Whenever you have illegal people coming there, they’re promptly taken, arrested, and removed. In America, we feed them, we house them, we give them schools, we go through a long legal process, then they’re deported. It’s gone too far, and most Americans are upset.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「好的,那麼對於那15%與父母分離的移民兒童,他們的情形與那些因為父母犯罪入獄,而不得不單獨生活的美國兒童,是否有相似之處?」
「Yeah, but even for those 15% who are separated from their families, how does their situation compared to, for instance, an American citizen who got separated from his children because he committed crime?」

Shawn Steel(共和黨全國委員會委員/Shawn Steel法律事務所創始人兼CEO):「我們有成千上萬的被監禁人口,他們的孩子沒有與父母一起關在監獄裡,也不應該這樣。 一個人被關進監獄,他也不可能再照顧孩子了。 如果一個被判刑的人正好懷孕了,分娩後,孩子就會被從監獄裡帶走,送到寄養家庭。 通常寄養家庭並不是每個都會對孩子視如己出,但也總比讓犯了罪的父母撫養要好得多。 對那些非法越境的孩子的父母來說,也是這樣。 他們犯了罪, 他們讓他們的孩子處於極大的危險之中,他們知道這相當危險, 應該盡快將孩子送回自己的國家,立刻。 麻煩的是我們有太多律師告訴法院要延遲審理,一推再推, 這對孩子們來說實際上也不好。」
Shawn Steel: 「 We have hundreds of thousands of people that are in jail, with their children not going to jail with their parents, nor should they. You have somebody that’s in jail, they’re usually unfit to take care of children anyhow. Sometimes you’ll have a woman who’s convicted of a crime who’s pregnant, and as soon as she has the delivery, the baby is removed from her, in jail, and sent to a foster home. Usually the foster home is not ideal, but it’s a lot better than a criminal parent. Same thing applies when you have parents that are going across the border. They’re committing a criminal act. They’re putting their children in great danger. They know it’s great danger. They should be promptly returned to their country with their children. Promptly. The trouble is we have too many lawyers that go to court that delay, delay, delay. And that actually isn’t good for the children either. 」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「有人認為媒體報導的時間點和規模是出於政治的考量,是為了中期選舉的需要,您意下如何?」
「Some people are saying the timing and the mass media’s reporting of this issue reveals political motives, for example, it is related to the midterm elections; do you agree?」

Shawn Steel(共和黨全國委員會委員/Shawn Steel法律事務所創始人兼CEO):「是這樣。 《洛杉磯時報》、哥倫比亞大學新聞學院,以及許多組織對當今美國的記者行業做了詳盡的調查, 90%以上是民主黨人,民主黨左翼, 這是一群充滿敵意的人群。 中共進駐美國的大多數主流媒體都是左翼,並沒有報導真相, 只是報導了記者的想法, 所以基本上它是一種宣傳形式。你知道嗎, 其實大多數美國人都清楚這一點, 如今大多數美國人不信任美國記者。 這就是為什麼你看到一些報紙相繼破產、大多數主流媒體都沒有獲得好評。 在某些情況下,一個二手車銷售員都比《洛杉磯時報》記者更有信譽。」
Shawn Steel: Of course. Let’s understand that the LA Times, the Columbia University School of Journalism, many organizations have done a detailed survey of what is a journalist, what is a reporter. Well over 90 percent are Democrats, are to the left of Democrats. It’s a hostile organization. Most of mainstream media in the world, coming out of China, coming in the United States, is left wing and doesn’t report truth. It reports the journalists’ ideas. So it’s basically a form of propaganda. And guess what? Most Americans know that. The majority of Americans nowadays do not trust American journalists. That’s why you’re seeing newspapers collapse, that’s why you’re seeing most of the mainstream media not getting good ratings. In some cases, a used car salesman will have more credibility than an LA Times reporter.

接下來,美國與墨西哥如何解決邊境安全問題?
Coming up,How can the U.S. and Mexico improve border security?

美國和墨西哥之間,另一個關鍵的問題是邊境安全,怎樣阻止毒品、武器、違禁品和人員的非法流動。其中一項策略是修建邊境牆。這一策略可以追溯到1996年,當時美國國會首次授權修建邊境牆,把它作為《非法移民改革與移民責任法》的一部分。2006年,美國國會通過了《安全圍牆法》。法案要求沿700英裏長的西南邊境建牆。但是,這堵牆卻一直沒有完成。修建該牆是川普2016年競選綱領的重要部分。2017年1月,川普簽署行政命令,開始興建美加邊境牆。
against the illegal movement of drugs, weapons, contraband, and people. One strategy is the border wall, which goes back to 1996 when Congress first mandated its construction as part of the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act. In 2006, Congress passed the Secure Fence Act, which required fencing along 700 miles of the southwest border. That was never completed. The wall was a major part of President Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. In January 2017, the president signed an executive order to begin construction.

儘管有人批評邊境牆沒什麼效果,但是,魁北克大學的Elisabeth Vallet發現,已有65個國家已建成邊境牆或正在興建之中。
Despite criticism that border walls aren’t effective, Elisabeth Vallet from Quebec University found 65 countries that have already completed or are building border walls.

無論邊境牆是否有效,要解決這些問題就必須治本。販毒集團引起的暴力事件,源自美、墨兩國內部根深蒂固的社會問題:美國對毒品的需求,墨西哥及中美、南美的貧困。那些找不到工作、沒有受過教育的年輕人通常別無選擇,只能投奔販毒集團。
Whether or not border walls are effective, the root causes of these problems still need to be addressed. Much of the violence caused by drug cartels is rooted in both sides of the border: demand for drugs in the U.S. and poverty in Mexico as well as Central and South America. Young people who can’t get jobs and aren’t educated often have no choice but to join drug cartels.

7月4日,墨西哥當選總統奧夫拉多爾承諾,將撥款75億美元用於青年就業培訓以及援助老年人。這也可能會有助於美國打擊邊境暴力。
On July 4th, Mexican President-elect Obrador promised $7.5 billion U.S. dollars for youth job training and aid for the elderly. It could also help the U.S. curb border violence.

墨西哥駐美大使費爾南德斯說,美國和墨西哥要制止毒品和暴力,不能僅靠打擊販毒集團頭目。
Mexican Ambassador Gerónimo Gutiérrez Fernández says the U.S. and Mexico can’t stop the drugs and violence by just going after cartel leaders.

費爾南德斯(墨西哥駐美國大使):「我們需要做的,不是簡單的追求抓了多少毒梟頭目,而是怎麼打掉裏面的商業模式。如果你看一下墨西哥前任總統涅托上任伊始的數據,大約抓了100多個(具體多少,請不要引用我說的數字),但是已確定的有122個。我想,這些人當中有108個要麼在蹲大牢,要麼已經死了。如果要按前面那個說法,這已經相當成功了。然而,事實似乎並非如此。我們需要做的,就是打掉它的商業模式,因為如果商業模式不打掉,像我們一樣,你就還有一個市場存在。毒品也罷、武器也罷、金錢也罷、其它什麼也罷,如果我們不考慮這個供應和需求,我們就不可能成功。」
Gerónimo Gutiérrez Fernández( Mexican Ambassador): 「We need to focus more on interrupting the business model than simply going after the heads of the cartels. If you look at the number when President Pena Nieto started, there were around a hundred, and please don’t quote me on the exact numbers, but there were 122 identified targets. I think 108 of them are either behind bars or are now dead. According to that metric, there’s a rather firm success on that. And, yet, that does not seem to be the case. What we need to do is disrupt the business model because, if you don’t disrupt the business model and you have a market like we do, and we don’t consider the supply and demand of whether it’s drugs, weapons, money, etc., we’re not going to be successful.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao): 正如大使所說,雖然墨西哥現任總統在清除街頭毒梟方面取得了很多進展,但是這並沒有帶來太大改變。墨西哥城諮詢公司「Etellekt」稱,上周的選舉是歷史上流血最多的一次,他們估計有100多人在選舉中喪生。而且不可避免的是,墨西哥的暴力事態會蔓延到美國。那麼,我們該如何處理邊境安全問題呢?我們現在的所做所為,是不是盡力了呢?還請斯蒂爾先生回答一下。
As the ambassador stated, Mexico’s current president has made a lot of progress in taking cartel leaders off the streets, yet it hasn’t made much of a difference. Last week’s elections were the bloodiest in history, according to a Mexico City-based consulting firm called Etellekt. They estimated over 100 people were killed in connection with the elections. Inevitably, violence in Mexico will spill over into the United States too. So how do we deal with border security? And are we doing enough? Here’s Shawn Steel again.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「美國和墨西哥邊境面臨的一個主要問題是,暴力、毒品和武器走私、人口拐賣。您認為川普政府目前採取的措施,除了能把毒梟繩之以法之外,是否還能夠打掉這個商業模式、包括供應和需求兩方面?」
「 One major issue for the U.S.-Mexico border is violence and the trafficking of drugs, weapons, and people. Do you think the Trump administration is putting enough effort in disrupting the business model, the supply and demand, instead of just targeting the heads of the criminal groups?」

Shawn Steel(共和黨全國委員會委員/Shawn Steel法律事務所創始人兼CEO):「我認為我們的外交政策、對邊境安全的管控正在徹底改變。 這種改變不會一下子就發生,還需要一個過程。 需要明智的領導人、管理層以及民眾的支持來實現這一轉變。邊防巡邏隊被民主黨左翼嘲笑了多年。 當然現在來說,民主黨左派正在攻擊ICE,即移民及海關執法局, 他們提出了一個非常激進的議案,即要求取消ICE, 大多數美國人對此感到不滿。 當然,作為一名共和黨人,我很高興,因為民主黨人可能會因此在中期選舉中慘敗。 但總的來說,美國的邊境和外交政策有了新的改變。 與過去相比,人們對美國的尊重程度要高很多。而且對違法者而言,他們將被更有效的制裁 ,特別是那些通過邊境走私槍支、毒品,以及幫助非法移民偷渡的人。」
Shawn Steel: 「Well, I think that the entire approach of our foreign policy, of border security, is radically changing. It doesn’t change overnight, but it takes a process. You have to get good leaders, good managers, good people. The Border Patrol has been laughed at for years by the Democrat left. Now, of course, the Democrat left is attacking ICE, our internal security for immigration. And they’ve taken a very radical proposition that they’re calling for ICE to be abolished. Most Americans are offended with that. But there’s a absolute new attitude among the American border and foreign policy in general. And you’re seeing a lot more respect for America than there has been in the past. And you’re seeing more active prosecutions against lawbreakers, particularly those that are running guns, drugs, and people through the border. 」

接下來,美國和墨西哥之間的貿易戰,以及在奧夫拉多爾和川普掌權之下,重啟北美自由貿易協定談判的前景如何呢?
Coming up,How will the U.S.-Mexico trade war and NAFTA renegotiations look like under AMLO and Trump?

美國和墨西哥之間的第三個主要的問題是貿易。今年5月,川普總統終止了對墨西哥和美國其他盟友的鋼鐵和鋁的關稅豁免。作為回應,墨西哥對價值近30億美元的美國商品加徵了關稅,包括豬肉、鋼鐵、乳酪、威士忌酒、蘋果和其它商品。上周四,墨西哥開始實施第二輪報復性關稅,主要針對美國的農產品。
The third major issue between the U.S. and Mexico is trade. In May, President Trump ended exemptions to the steel and aluminum tariffs for Mexico and other U.S. allies. In response, Mexico retaliated with its own tariffs on nearly $3 billion dollars’ worth of U.S. goods including pork, steel, cheese, bourbon, apples, and other goods. Last Thursday, Mexico imposed its second set of tariffs, which are mostly on U.S. agricultural goods.

只要美國繼續對墨西哥的鋼鐵和鋁加征關稅,墨西哥也將繼續對美加征關稅。
Mexican tariffs will remain in place as long as the U.S. maintains tariffs on Mexican steel and aluminum.

還有北美自由貿易協定。自2017年8月以來,墨西哥、加拿大、和美國一直試圖重啟三方會談。川普總統曾威脅,如果無法達成一份更好的協議,美國將乾脆退出北美自由貿易協定。
There’s also the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA. Mexico, Canada, and the U.S. have been trying since August 2017 to renegotiate the trilateral agreement. President Trump has threatened in the past to pull the U.S. out of it altogether if a better deal can’t be negotiated.

費爾南德斯大使稱,美國和墨西哥之間要達成北美自由貿易協定,最大的會談障礙是:貿易逆差、汽車工業以及勞工和環保標準。
Ambassador Gerónimo Gutiérrez Fernández says the biggest NAFTA negotiation gaps between the U.S. and Mexico are the trade deficit, auto sector, and labor and environmental standards.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):我採訪了美國傳統基金會經濟增長專案傑出訪問學者Stephen Moore先生。讓我們來聽一聽他對北美自由貿易協定和美國、墨西哥貿易談判的看法。
I asked Stephen Moore, the Distinguished Visiting Fellow for the Project for Economic Growth at The Heritage Foundation, what he thinks about NAFTA and U.S.-Mexico trade negotiations.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「川普總統最近表示,他對北美自由貿易協定談判不滿意,不會在中期選舉前簽署新的協議。您認為這麼做好嗎?」
「 President Trump recently said he was not happy with the NAFTA negotiations and would not sign a new deal before the midterm elections. Do you think that is a good move? 」

Stephen Moore(美國傳統基金會「經濟增長計劃」訪問學者):「我是NAFTA的堅定支持者。 我認為NAFTA對整個北美大陸都有好處,我希望看到NAFTA與時俱進,因為NAFTA已經實施了20多年了。 川普總統與加拿大和墨西哥的談判,若能達成一項新協議,將對局勢非常有利,因為這兩個國家是我們最重要的兩個盟友,我認為這對三國的經濟都有益處,因為我們也將在未來幾年和幾十年內,同時與亞洲和歐洲競爭。」
Steven Moore: 「I’m a strong supporter of NAFTA. I think NAFTA has been good for the whole continent, and I would like to see this – it needs to be modernized because it’s some 20-or-so years old. But it would be smart for Donald Trump to negotiate a new agreement with Canada and Mexico because those are two of our most important allies, and I think it would be good for the economies of the entire continent as we compete against Asia and Europe in the years and decades ahead.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「有批評人士一直說,川普總統應該把美國的盟友,像加拿大、墨西哥和歐盟,統統拉到他這一邊來,在貿易方面抗衡中國。但川普的做法恰恰相反,而是與美國的盟友為敵,您同意一些評論人士的看法嗎? 」
「 Critics have been saying President Trump should bring America’s allies, such as Canada, Mexico and the E.U., along in his trade confrontation against China. But he is doing the opposite by making enemies with America’s allies. Do you agree?」

Stephen Moore(美國傳統基金會「經濟增長計劃」訪問學者):「我認同的是,如果川普能夠將精力集中在中國大陸,將對局勢產生有利影響,因為中國大陸在經濟往來中是最重要的國家,同時也是最大的欺詐者。 他們一直在竊取我們的知識產權,而且我認為,如果我們打算與中共開戰,而且現在貿易戰也終於打響了,你確實希望你的盟友站在你一邊。 因此,我認為現在對歐洲一些國家和加拿大、這些我們的盟友國徵收汽車關稅和鋼鐵關稅並不適時,由於現在與中國大陸貿易關係緊張,我認為川普會希望我們的盟友站在美國一邊。」
Steven Moore: 「Well, I do agree that it would be a positive thing if Trump could focus his energies on China because China is really the country that matters the most economically and that I think has been the biggest cheater. And they’ve been stealing our intellectual property, and I think, if we’re going to pick a fight with China, which I think it’s about time we did, you do want your allies on your side. So I think that some of the auto tariffs and the steel tariffs that have antagonized some of our European and Canadian allies probably were not well timed, and now we’ve got this developing trade tiff going on with China, and I think Trump’s going to want our allies on his side. 」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「是的,但他們並不站在川普一邊。那些報復川普對鋁和鋼鐵加徵關稅的人,他們瞄準的是對共和黨而言在政治、經濟上都很重要的產品和地區。儘管美國經濟現在表現不錯,但川普總統能承受多少來自國內的壓力呢?」
「 Yeah, but they are not on his side, and those retaliating against Trump’s tariffs on aluminum and steel are targeting products and regions important politically and economically to Republicans. Although the U.S. economy is doing well, but still, how much domestic pressure can President Trump take?」

Stephen Moore(美國傳統基金會「經濟增長計劃」訪問學者):「毫無疑問,特別是在中共和美國之間,貿易問題上劍拔弩張。新的關稅已經生效,中國大陸現在也正威脅要對美國徵收新的關稅。川普甚至說我們可能會對來自中國大陸的所有東西征收關稅,每年5000億美元,這肯定會傷害消費者的利益。但我想說的是,大多數美國人都認為,不能再繼續忍受中共佔我們的便宜,因為中美之間沒有公平的競爭環境,我們購買了5000億美元中國大陸商品,但他們只從我們這裡購買了1500億美元,還竊取了我們的知識產權。所以必須迫使中共做出重大讓步,讓我們拭目以待。如果我們擁有像德國、法國,以及英國、加拿大這樣的盟友,那將會有所幫助,因為這樣會對中共施加更大的壓力。但我確實認為,川普最終希望降低關稅,而不是徵收更高的關稅。他希望所有國家降低關稅,希望降到零,這樣我們才能有一個真正的自由貿易世界,但是我們離實現那一步還很遠。」
Steven Moore:「 Well, look, there’s no question that there’s a tense time right now for trade, especially between China and the United States. The new tariffs have gone into effect, and China is now threatening new tariffs on us, and Trump even said that we could possibly impose tariffs on everything that comes in from China, all 500 billion dollars a year, and that would be a – that would hurt consumers for sure. But I would say this: there’s a feeling among, I think, a majority of Americans that we cannot continue to live with the status quo where China takes advantage of us, where we don’t have a level playing field, where we buy 500 billion dollars of their products, but they only buy 150 billion from us, and also the theft of our intellectual property. So there’s got to be some major concessions from China, and we’ll see if that happens. It would be helpful if we had our allies like Germany and France and the United Kingdom and Canada on our side because that way it puts more pressure on China. But I do think, in the end, Donald Trump wants lower tariffs, not higher tariffs. He wants all the countries to lower their tariffs, hopefully to zero, so we have a true free trade paradise. But we’re long way off from that right now. 」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「所以,以您之見,在糾正不公平的貿易行為這一點上,美國是否到了一個『如果現在不幹,什麼時候幹?』的時候了?」
「 So in your opinion, for America, in terms of correcting unfair trade practices, It’s a “if not now, when?” kind of moment?」

Stephen Moore(美國傳統基金會「經濟增長計劃」訪問學者):「這是關鍵問題。我認為很多美國人相信——看,美國經濟現在多麼強大。本週我們又收到了一份重磅報導,美國經濟可能會在2018年第二季度增長4.5%,而這正是很多歐洲國家經濟放緩,中國經濟放緩的時候。我認為川普確信『新的美國時刻』已經到來。正是我們顯示力量、擺脫被佔便宜的不利地位之時。我們知道,中國領導人說,美國正在對中國發動貿易戰,這是歷史上最大的貿易戰之一。而且我認為川普會說的是,中美之間的貿易戰已經開展了10年或15年,而我們正在輸給中國大陸。我們必須通過報復達成一個公平的貿易環境。這一點終究會實現,但我不知道這需要兩個月、六個月還是一年或兩年才能實現。」
Steven Moore:「 Well, I think that’s the point. I think that a lot of Americans believe that – look, the United States’ economy is very strong right now. We got another blockbuster jobs report this week. I think we’re going to get, potentially, another 4 ½ percent growth for the second quarter for 2018, and this is coming at a time when a lot of the European countries’ economies have been slowing down, and China’s economy has been slowing down. I think Trump really believes that this is the American moment. This is the time for us to flex our muscle and to really stop being taken advantage of. You know, China, the Beijing leaders said that the United States is waging a trade war, one of the biggest trade wars in history. And I think what Donald Trump would say is we’ve been in a trade war for 10 or 15 years, and we’re losing against China. And we’ve got to start retaliating in ways that level this playing field. I think in the end that’s going to happen, but I don’t know if it’s going to take two months or six months or a year or two years. 」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):墨西哥當選總統奧夫拉多爾將於12月1日正式上任。儘管川普總統和奧夫拉多爾總統都已積極表態,但二人在國內問題兌現承諾的同時,能否在移民、邊境安全和貿易方面展開合作,尚有待觀察。但是,有一點是肯定的,人們都正在尋求改變政治現狀,也許兩位總統都能在多年來困擾美國和墨西哥的重大問題上取得進展。請繼續關注,我們會給您帶來其它地方看不到的獨特視角。要找到我們,請搜索「Zooming In with Simone Gao」, 感謝您的收看,我們下週再見。
Mexican President-elect López Obrador takes office on December 1st. Although both President Trump and the Mexican president-elect have started on a positive note, it remains to be seen whether or not they can work together on immigration, border security, and trade while also keeping their promises on domestic issues. One thing’s for certain, people are looking for a change to the political status quo. Maybe these two can make progress on the major issues that have been plaguing the U.S. and Mexico for years. Stay tuned. We’ll bring you perspectives that you won’t see elsewhere. To find us, search for「Zooming In with Simone Gao.」, Thanks for watching, and see you next week.

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Producer:Simone Gao Yolanda Yao
Writer:Simone Gao Jess Beatty Michelle Wan
Editors:Julian Kuo Melodie Von Bin Tang
Narrator: Rich Crankshaw
Cameraman:Wei Wu Eric Zhang
Transcription: Jess Beatty
Translation:Greg Yang Frank Yue Michelle Wan Xiaofeng Zhang
Special Effects:Harrison Sun
Assistant producer:Bin Tang Sherry Chang Merry Jiang

Feedback:ssgx@ntdtv.com
Host accessories are sponsored by Yun Boutique

New Tang Dynasty Television
August, 2018

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