【新唐人2014年04月21日訊】中國經濟持續下滑令世界擔憂。日前，「國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）」警告，中國經濟將面臨「硬著陸」風險。而中共官員表示，為阻止經濟下滑及更大風險，已做好忍痛「割肉」的準備。那麼，「割肉」能避免中國政治、經濟風險嗎？來聽聽專家的分析。
美國《華爾街日報》16號報導，中國第一季度「國內生產總值(GDP)」同比增幅，從去年第四季度的7.7%回落到7.4%，這是2012年9月以來的最低水平。
報導引述澳大利亞「澳新銀行」大中華區首席經濟師劉利剛的話表示，為調控市場預期，中共國家統計局可能稍微誇大了GDP數據，但實際上，中國經濟已經大幅放緩。
12號，在美國華盛頓召開的「國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）」和「世界銀行（World Bank）」春季會議上，中共財政部副部長朱光耀接受採訪時承認，中國面臨經濟放緩的挑戰，而為了克服中國經濟眼前面臨的難關，當局已經做好短期劇痛準備。這一說法，被專家解讀為「割肉」的準備。
美國南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院教授謝田：「這個是很有趣的一個說法，但是我們並不知道它（中共）這個肉具體指的哪一部分。實質上我們看，中國經濟在過去六十年，尤其最近二十年，實際上就是一個割肉的過程，是中共特權和權貴階層在割中國老百姓的肉。」
美國「南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院」教授謝田表示，中國現狀是「國進民退」、「國富民窮」，老百姓的收入，沒有跟上中國經濟所謂發展的速度，反而，中共既得利益集團、「太子黨集團」和中共高層官員，卻拿到不屬於他們的那些肥肉和財富。
朱光耀還表示，中國經濟面臨多方面風險，包括「工業生產者價格指數（PPI）」已經連續第25個月下跌﹔銀行系統外發行的、未受監管的信貸規模大增﹔以及截至去年6月規模達人民幣17萬9000億元的地方政府債務，其中超過三分之一的債務須在今年償還。
不少經濟學家認為，中共當局需要迅速採取行動，來讓經濟擺脫信貸過度膨脹、過度投資和產能過剩局面。
經濟專家們還擔心，中國經濟的增速放緩以及物價下跌，可能引發新一輪企業破產潮，甚至導致金融危機的出現。信貸迅猛增長，已經使得中國債務規模，接近國內生產總值(GDP)的兩倍。
「國際貨幣基金組織IMF」亞太區副主管兼中國工作組負責人羅德勞爾（MarkusRodlauer）認為，中國經濟面臨的風險並不在於經濟增長放緩，而是在於經濟增長不被允許放緩。
IMF總裁拉加德也曾公開表示，中國可能因資產素質欠佳，而面臨經濟「硬著陸」風險。
謝田：「從這個中國國內的這些企業的倒閉潮、老闆捲款外逃和產能過剩、通貨膨脹，和所有這些房地產泡沫開始破滅，所以這一些經濟及金融的跡象來看，中國經濟的硬著陸，我覺得可能已在進行式之中了。」
謝田表示，目前外界對中國經濟的諸多揣測和說法，是因為中國經濟的真相還沒有被世人和國際社會所熟知。
日前，中共為了繼續讓中國經濟長期增長，進行了一系列的所謂「改革」，包括：放開利率、放開資本賬戶、增收房產稅。但《華爾街日報》認為，這樣做可能適得其反，會成為點燃大火的火柴。
謝田表示，開放利率，首先得開放銀行業，以及開放對金融業的控制﹔開放資本賬戶，必須開放匯率，准許資本自由流動，這兩者，中共不敢，也不可能做到。
謝田：「增收房地產稅，實際上本來就荒唐，中國老百姓連房地產的擁有、都不是擁有者，中國人買的房子只是出的租金，租戶是不需要交房產稅的。」
謝田說，中國的房地產價格已經被政府炒房、炒地給哄抬的過高了，如果到時再增加房地產稅，可能引起既得利益者的反彈，那老百姓更要起義造反了。
謝田表示，中國的老百姓已經被房價、醫療及教育盤剝的只剩骨頭了，再也沒有甚麼可以割的了。而眼下的「割肉」，只能表示中共的內鬥已從政治上擴展到經濟上，並且在全面的升級、惡化，最終將加速中共整體的瓦解。
採訪編輯/易如 後製/後製/周天
Chinese Communist Party Ready to Endure Short Term Economic Pains
Further declines in China’s economy has
continued to concern the international community.
Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned
that China’s economy is likely to face a hard landing.
Chinese officials said they are ready to endure short-term
pain in order to prevent economic downturn and bigger risks.
So, will giving way avoid political and economic
risks in China? Let’s listen to expert analysis.
On April 16, the Wall Street Journal reported
that the increase of China gross domestic
product (GDP) in the first quarter is down to
7.4% from 7.7% in the fourth quarter of last year.
This is the lowest level since September 2012.
Liu Ligang, Chief Economist at Australia & New Zealand
Banking Group Ltd, said that the CCP National Statistic
Bureau might have slightly exaggerated it’s GDP.
It did so in order to regulate market expectation.
However, China’s economy has significantly slowed.
On April 12, in the IMF and World Bank Spring
meeting in Washington, Vice Finance Minister
Zhu Guangyao admitted in an interview that China
is facing the challenge of an economic slowdown.
The authorities are prepared to endure short-term
economic pains to overcome the difficulties.
This statement was interpreted
as ready “to lose some benefits”.
Professor Frank Xie, School of Business, University
of South Carolina Aiken: “It is very interesting although
we don’t know what benefits the CCP specifically refers to.
In the past sixty years, especially the last two decades, the
Chinese economy has been in a process of losing benefits.
This is the privilege class taking advantage of the entire
Chinese populace. It is the people losing the benefits.”
Professor Xie says that China is in a situation
where the state is placed ahead of the people.
In other words, a wealthy state, but poor people.
People’s income doesn’t match with
apparent economic developments.
However, vested interest groups, princelings and senior
CCP officials receive wealth that does not belong to them.
Zhu Guangyao also said that China’s producer-price index
has had it’s twenty fifth consecutive month of decline.
Beijing is working to clean up an explosion of
unregulated credit issued outside the banking system.
This includes 17.9 trillion yuan in debts
owed by local governments as of last June.
More than a third of these debts must
be repaid this year, reported WSJ.
Many economists believe that the Chinese regime
needs to move quickly, in order to wean its economy from
runaway credit, over-investment and excess capacity.
The WSJ added that analysts worry that slowing
growth and falling prices could touch off a wave
of bankruptcies and even a financial crisis.
Booming credit growth has swollen
debt in China to roughly double the GDP.
“The risk is not slower growth,” said Markus Rodlauer,
the Deputy Director of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific
Department, and Head of IMF’s China mission.
“The risk is that growth is not allowed to slow.”
IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde warned of
the risk of what she termed a “hard landing" in China.
Professor Xie: “I believe China’s economic
hard landing is already in progress.
This is based on economic and financial indicators,
including; the closure of domestic enterprises; owners
fleeing overseas with money; excess capacity; inflation;
and the beginning of the real estate bubble burst.”
Professor Xie also indicates that many speculations
and arguments on China’s economy have raised on being
misled by not knowing the true economic situation in China.
Recently, the CCP implemented a series of what
it called reforms, for long-term economic growth.
This would include free interest rates, the liberalization
of capital accounts, and property tax increases.
But Wall Street Journal believes doing so
may become matches to ignite a big fire.
Frank Xie indicates that free interest rate need to cut lose the
control on bank and financial industry; the liberalization of
capital account should open exchange rate to allow free capital
flows. However, the CCP dare not and will not do either one.
Professor Xie: “Property tax increases are in fact ridiculous.
None of the Chinese people are owners of property;
their house purchase are actually the retinal fee of the
land and landlords don’t need to pay property tax.”
Professor Xie says that China’s real estate prices
have been driven up too high by the regime.
The increases of property tax may trigger the vested
interests group’s to rebound, and the people will rebel.
Professor Xie explains that the Chinese people have been
exploited by the cost of housing, health care and education.
There is nothing left.
Now, the CCP’s short-term economic loss is an indication
that infighting has extended from politics to economics.
It is in an accelerated and worsening situation
nationwide. It signals the potential collapse of the CCP.
Interview & Edit/Yiru Post-Production/Zhoutian
