【新唐人2013年09月26日訊】中共週一發佈了禁止向朝鮮出口的技術和商品清單，以防止這些技術和商品可能被用來製造核武器和生化武器。專家指出，朝鮮一直是中共的一個燙手山芋。中共需要在捍衛共產主義盟友和防範核威脅方面保持微妙的平衡。專家分析，習近平新領導層對朝鮮政策或有所改變。
中共商務部在其網站聲明中宣稱：「禁止向朝鮮出口本公告所公布的與大規模殺傷性武器及其運載工具相關的兩用物項和技術」，還附上了236頁的禁運清單。兩用物項指的是這些物品表面上可用於民用，但也用於軍事項目。涉及包括核領域、導彈領域、化學和生物領域。
復旦大學韓國朝鮮研究中心副教授蔡建：「以前聯合國通過四個決議，以前中國（共）對這個問題的認識不是這樣認識的，所以並沒有很堅決的執行這個決議。那麼現在中國，我們新的領導當局，覺得朝鮮這種做法對中國（共）的利益是有損害的，所以比較嚴格的執行這樣一個制裁決議。」
復旦大學韓國朝鮮研究中心副教授蔡建觀察，習近平新領導層對朝鮮政策作出一些調整，因為朝鮮的一些挑釁的行為使地區局勢的不穩定，造成中共與國際社會一些國家關係的緊張，這都是當局不希望看到的。
蔡建：「比如說中國（共）一直想在韓國跟朝鮮之間保持一種平衡的外交關係，但是它（朝鮮）總是製造一種緊張局勢，讓中國（共）的外交政策很難以保持這樣一種平衡。在某種程度上它就利用了中國跟周邊國家的矛盾來達到它的目的，包括中國和美國的關係。」
紐約城市大學政治學教授夏明分析說，中共出臺這個禁運清單有幾個因素。他認為，中共對朝鮮的態度一直存在矛盾，而自身政權的安全是它考慮的最大問題。
紐約城市大學政治學教授夏明：「一方面可以看到朝鮮是中共政權安全的一道屏障，因為一方面朝鮮可以作為一張紙牌，可以作為一個緩衝力量，跟美國和日本做一些交易，或者向美國和日本施加一些壓力。從這個角度來說，朝鮮顯得有助於中共政權的安全。」
夏明表示，目前，中共跟朝鮮陷入比較微妙的關係。無論從中共外交界還是民意來看，中國國內對朝鮮顯示出越來越多的不耐煩，它的流氓行徑引發老百姓的強烈不滿。此外，在國際上，中共要面對美國和西方國家包括日本的批評和壓力，同時朝鮮對中共提供的各種技術又非常不負責任，輕易地擴散到其他國家。
另一方面，夏明指出，朝鮮國內出現了很多問題，尤其是金家王朝進入第三代後，接班人金正恩做事魯莽和無賴。
金正恩接班後，擅自試驗核爆，試射導彈，或者向南朝鮮島嶼進攻。朝鮮經濟出現嚴重問題，難民不斷湧向中國邊境，給中國帶來很多麻煩和不穩定因素。
夏明：「從這個角度來看，朝鮮又成為中共一個政體安全的負資產。所以對中共來說，對朝鮮確確實實是既想用它，可是朝鮮又變得不可預測，會帶來甚麼樣的政治影響？尤其是對政體安全造成的影響，它又不可預測。所以對中共來說，朝鮮總是一個頭痛的事情。」
夏明認為，從內心來說，中共是絕對不希望朝鮮擁有原子彈的。但是，中共就是在西方國家和蘇聯聯手阻止的壓力下，發展出自己的原子彈和氫彈的。所以中共的外交方針認為，第三世界國家擁有發展核武器的權利。
夏明強調，中共的這個立場，就迫使它對朝鮮、伊朗這些國家發展核武器，無法選擇太多的譴責態度。
採訪編輯/秦雪 後製/李勇
China´s New Attitude Towards North Korea
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) announced a ban
on export of many items and technologies to North Korea
which could possibly be used to make nuclear and biological
weapons.
Experts point out that North Korea has become
a hot potato for the CCP.
China needs to maintain a delicate balance between
defending its allies and preventing nuclear threats.
Xi Jinping´s new leadership is changing its policy towards
North Korea (NK.)
The Ministry of Commerce published a statement
on its website which said, “Items and technologies that have
dual-purposes and are related to weapons of mass destruction
are prohibited from export to NK.
Dual-purpose refers to having both civilian and military use,
including nuclear, missiles, chemical and biological uses.
Associate Professor Cai Jian, Korean research center, Fudan
University: “The UN adopted four resolutions before.
Because the CCP has a different understanding of this issue,
these resolutions have not been firmly implemented.
China´s new leadership recognizes that such an approach
towards NK actually hurts the CCP´s interests, and therefore,
it wants to more strictly enforce the resolutions.”
According to Cai Jian´s observation, Xi Jinping made
some adjustments to his policy towards NK.
The CCP does not want to see that NK´s provocative behavior
causes regional instability and tension
between the CCP and other countries.
Cai Jian: “The CCP always wants to maintain a diplomatic
balance between South Korea and North Korea.
However, North Korea always creates tensions
and troubles for China´s foreign policy.
To some degree, North Korea takes advantage of China´s
conflicts with its neighboring countries to achieve its own goal,
including its relationship with China and the US.”
Professor Xia Ming, political science, City University
of New York, said there are several factors
to the introduction of an embargo.
He believes that the CCP has conflicts in its NK diplomacy,
but its biggest problem is the security of the regime itself.
Xia Ming: “On the one hand, NK is a barrier for the CCP´s
security.
On the other hand, NK is also a leverage, which can be used
as a buffer zone or for adding some pressure in dealing with the US and Japan.
From that standpoint, NK obviously helps to maintain
the Chinese regime´s security.”
Xia Ming believes that the relationship between the CCP
and NK is quite delicate.
Diplomatically, the CCP is getting more impatient with NK,
whose thugish behavior also draws complaints from Chinese people.
In addition, internationally, the CCP faces criticism
and pressure from many countries, including the US and Japan.
Meanwhile, NK acts irresponsibly, carelessly spreading
various technologies from China to other countries.
Xia Ming also points out that NK faces many issues,
particularly since the Kim Dynasty has entered
its third generation, and the successor, Kim Jong-un, acts recklessly.
After Kim Jong-un became the leader, he authorized nuclear
tests, test-fired missiles, and planned to attack South Korea.
NK´s severe economic crisis causes a large number
of refugees to flee to China´s border and creates problems
and instability for the CCP.
Xia Ming: “From this perspective, NK has become its liability
for the CCP´s security.
Therefore, NK is a pain in the neck for the CCP.
The CCP wants to use NK, but it is unpredictable.
One cannot tell what kind of political impact NK would bring,
particularly towards the security of the CCP.”
Xia Ming thinks that from deep down inside, the CCP
does not want NK to own atomic bombs.
However, the CCP developed its own nuclear bombs despite
joint preventive efforts from the Soviet Union and the US.
Therefore, the CCP´s stance on nuclear weapons is that
third world countries have the right to own them.
Xia Ming emphasizes that the CCP´s stance keeps it from
condemning NK and Iran over developing nuclear weapons.
