北京大學經濟學教授夏業良: 「有幾個方面的原因，一個是通貨膨脹，通貨膨脹是怎麼產生的呢﹖是因為外匯儲備，它倒逼人民幣賬款，多印鈔票，多印了多少呢﹖ 6倍以上﹗就稀釋人民幣的購買力，在國內人民幣是貶值的，在國外它是升值的，加上地方政府大量發行地方債，這個總量也差不多有20萬億，另外幾大商業銀行，特別是國有商業銀行發行各種債券、還有表外的業務，還有大量的非銀行經營資產，還有其他的一些業務，造成了實際上流動性的氾濫。」
Experts: Financial Crisis Has Broken Out in China
On June 24, the Shanghai Stock market fell to 2,000 points.
On June 25, A shares continue to fall.
The market staged a so-called “Bungee Jump."
The Shanghai index touched 1,849.65 points,
closing at 1,959.51 points.
Economists generally say the bank’s “money shortage"
has spread to the stock market.
Investors are in panic and are withdrawing money.
China’s systemic financial crisis has erupted,
and a comprehensive economic crisis may be imminent.
Recently, transactions, online banking and tellers for
Bank of China and ICBC in China’s large cities were temperately shut down,
followed by stock market dramatically slumped.
On June 24th, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 5.3%,
the highest single-day decline in nearly four years,
to below 2,000.
Bank stocks had the largest decline.
Han Fuling, professor at China’s Central University
of Finance and Economics openly told the media that
China’s systemic financial crisis has erupted.
Malaysian financial expert Cai Weiqiang: “In particular
there are many speculators in China’s stock market.
With money shortage, financial crisis could potentially erupt.
Many will withdraw capital and cause severe decline."
Beijing University professor of Economics Xia Yeliang
predicted as early as 2010 that
China might have economic crisis between 2012-2015.
Xia Yeliang said the financial crisis is now imminent,
and the economic crisis is also about to explode.
Professor Xia Yeliang: “There are several reasons for this.
One is inflation. How does inflation happen?
Foreign exchange reserves pressure of overprinting RMB bills.
How much more was printed? Over six times more!
This leads to dilution of the purchasing power of RMB.
As RMB currency devalues in China, overseas it appreciates.
Also, local governments issuing large amounts of bonds,
totaling up to nearly 20 trillion yuan,
large commercial banks, especially state-owned issuing bonds,
a variety of off-balance sheet business, non-banking assets,
as well as some other business, all result in excess liquidity."
Xia Yeliang pointed out that this kind of excess liquidity
makes China’s economy looks very prosperous for some time.
In fact, it sowed the seeds of economic crisis.
In 1988 and 1994, Bank of China had two
“money shortages," and caused double-digit inflation.
The bank should have gone bankrupt.
Xia Yeliang says the planned economy at that time
helped banks to muddle through.
Before it went to the stock market, 40% of the bad debt
was taken over by state-owned asset management,
written off and paid for by the millions of Chinese people.
The banks were listed with all good assets
and get lots of money from the stock market.
But the bank, introduced foreign banks at a low price,
allowing foreign banks to make money.
Xia Ye Liang: “Many foreign banks hold
a large amount of banks stocks in China.
They purchased it at the original price, even lower
than the IPO price, and they earned lots of money.
A while ago, they kept cashing in the money.
This is very harsh for the China’s people.
Bank saving and service conditions are harsh to Chinese people.
Their hard earned money was given to foreign capital."
Professor of Economics Zhang Qingxi at National Taiwan
University believes the “money shortage"
and the stock market crash in China show that
China’s economic crisis may have begun.
Zhang Qingxi: “Economic crisis could erupt at any time.
Too much money was supplied.
Right now there is the fear that
continuing to issue money might be unmanageable.”
Commentators believe the current credit crunch is because
Premier Li Keqiang giving China’s banking system surgery.
Chinese central government is still controlling the situation,
forcing major banks to take the initiative to get away from the bubble.
Xia Ye Liang: “China’s economy has many crises.
The financial crisis is one aspect.
Additionally, its manufacturing sector and
economic structure have lots of problems.
Regarding the current slow down, on one hand,
the central government hopes to slow it down;
on the other hand, it’s due to objective conditions.
Without innovation or low-priced products,
the original low-cost strategy is hard to
maintain export competitiveness.”
University of South Carolina Aiken Business School
professor Xie Tian reminded people since last year that
China’s economy has ‘landed hard,’
and people need to watch their wallets.