【新唐人2012年10月13日訊】近來，中共媒體連續撰文，罕見的高調談論「政改」。外界認為，從中共高層的各派到基層及百姓都認識到了，中國已經走入死胡同，變革勢在必行。但目前官方媒體的這些動作，或許是高層在釋放「風向標」——就是，十八大後政改會有突破。另一方面，甚至有評論指稱，這一系列動作，是習近平為自己接班後施展拳腳夯實基礎。不過，中共政權到底能改變到甚麼程度？
中共中央機關報《人民日報》發表評論部文章，聲稱：堅持改革已是舉國共識，但需不計譭譽和堅不可摧的創新意志，才能推動。同時，日報旗下的雜誌《人民論壇》，也刊登了「新政治觀」專題，探討政治體制改革。
據傳，一直高呼「政改」的中共總理溫家寶，最近顯得十分灑脫，「神清氣爽」，除正常政務活動外，還非正式的到大學演講，甚至親往體總球館參加籃球比賽。知情者說，溫家寶是因為最近一吐心中「塊壘」，而倍感如釋重負。
有消息人士向《新紀元》雜誌透露，近年來溫家寶多次提出要政治改革，給六四、法輪功平反。消息人士說，溫家寶尤其對「活摘法輪功學員器官」一事最為憤怒，而江澤民延續下來的血債纍纍，也正是促使溫家寶實現司法獨立、和政改的決心。
另外，在美國的「中國社會民主黨——中央委員會」主持人劉因全認為，目前中國的矛盾已經激化到極點，中共猶如坐在火山口上，黨內溫家寶、汪洋等開明派是想走普世價值的道路。他說，通過前一段的博弈，「開明派」已經站了上風。
美「中國社會民主黨——中央委員會」主持人 劉因全：「作為我們民主人士和異議人士，應該和黨內的開明派結盟，推動開明派走政治體制改革的道路，最後就是把共產黨徹底的改變掉，變成其他的黨，然後走多黨制，然後使中國走普世價值的道路。」
據劉因全分析，中國的民主路還很長，由於國內民間的民主力量遭到政法委的殘酷打壓，已經邊緣化，而海外的民主力量被中共分化瓦解，如一盤散沙。
劉因全：「推動改革的力量沒有成軍，沒有形成一個有組織有規模的力量，他們被分割、被刪貼、被邊緣化、被打擊的底層，他們沒有話語權，在這種情況下推動改革是有難度。」
不過「中國公民監政會」發起人郭永豐認為，這些文章只是為了「在思想上維穩」，給老百姓一些期待。因此，不會進行真正意義上的「政改」。
「中國公民監政會」發起人 郭永豐：「當前民間政改的呼聲非常的高，社會的矛盾越來越激烈，中共掌權的越來越孤立，越來越不得人心，還有各方面的政策和措施在民間行不通，在他們內部也推不動，各種各樣問題都出現，迫使他們不得不政改，怎麼改？那就是要向自己的頭上開刀，他們是非常痛心的，沒辦法，那就只好招搖，玩花招。」
有評論認為，目前的動向表明，胡錦濤和溫家寶已經磨好了刀，就等著「習近平亮劍」了。
郭永豐：「我認為民間的力量、政改的力量、包括體制內政改的力量，達到了一定極限之後，要讓它徹底的改，那就是脫胎換骨。首先解除共產黨的一黨專制，取消黨的領導，這個要解決的話，那麼開放黨政、報禁，那就純屬必然，這個不解決，那其他的改革毫無意義。」
郭永豐還表示，習近平仍然在黨的框架內思考「政改」。郭永豐認為，坐等民主自由從天而降，無異是癡人說夢，終結獨裁製度往往只有在足夠強大的壓力之下才會產生，他希望真正的政改能像汪洋宣稱的那樣：「在共產黨自己的頭上開刀」。
採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/孫寧
CCP ‘Political Reform’: How Much Can the Regime Change?
Repeated high-profile statements of “political reform"
have recently been released through Chinese Communist Party(CCP) state-controlled media.
Observers state that from top to bottom, all levels in China
have known that carrying out political reform is imperative.
The public speculated that through the media,
the top-levels of the CCP are releasing information.
That is, it is suggested a breakthrough will be made
in political reform after the 18th Party Congress.
Others hold views that these official assertions
aim to give Xi Jinping an opportunity to show strength after taking office.
The question is how much can the CCP regime change?
People’s Daily, the CCP’s official state
media, has released a commentary.
It states there is a nationwide consensus to follow reform.
Yet, only indestructible, innovative
willpower can push forward this process.
The People’s Tribune, a magazine under the People’s Daily,
published a series of “New Political Views" special reports.
These discuss reform of the political system.
CCP Premier Wen Jiabao is known
for advocating political reform.
He was recently reported to be looking “refreshed”.
Aside from his normal duties, Wen has
given unofficial speeches at universities.
He has also participated in Basketball games.
Informed sources state that this is because Wen has
been unburdened from “heavy depression” in his soul.
Sources told the Epoch Weekly magazine that in recent
years, Wen Jiabao repeatedly pushed for political reform.
Wen also proposed the vindication of the 1989
pro-democracy movement, and Falun Gong.
Sources said that Wen was most infuriated by the crime
of live organ harvesting of Falun Gong practitioners.
These blood-debts, originating from Jiang Zemin, impelled
Wen to seek judicial independence, and political reform.
Liu Yinquan, Chair of Social Democratic Party of China,
says that social conflicts in China have peaked.
It is like the CCP regime is sitting on a volcano.
Liberal CCP factions represented by Wen Jiabao and
Wang Yang intends to take the road of universal values.
Liu Yinquan thinks that after undergoing earlier
struggles, the liberal faction has gotten the upper hand.
Liu Yinquan: “We democrats and dissidents should ally
with the liberal CCP factions to promote political reform.
The purpose is to finally and completely
change the CCP, turning it into another party.
With that, we shall embrace a multi-party system in politics.
That will finally help China get on the path of universal values."
Liu Yinquan thinks that China still has
a long way to go before realizing democracy.
Democratic forces in China have been under a crackdown
by the CCP Central Political and Legal Committee.
Overseas democrats are being disintegrated
by the CCP, and lack cohesion, says Liu Yinquan.
Liu Yinquan: “People who promote reform
haven’t yet formed an organized force.
Instead, they have been divided up, have internet
posts removed, and are marginalized and isolated.
They have lost right to speak,
so it’s hard to push forward reform.”
Guo Yongfeng, founder of ‘Chinese Citizen Watchdog’,
discusses the CCP’s official commentaries.
These articles just serve to “maintain stability on thought”,
and promise some dreams for Chinese civilians, he says.
Therefore, there will no “political reform”
in a real sense, Guo Yongfeng believes.
Guo Yongfeng: “Now there’s a high appeal
for political reform from Chinese civilians.
Social conflicts have intensified, which
has made the CCP’s rule more unpopular.
What’s more, various official policies
and measures are not working in practice.
A variety of issues have emerged, forcing
the regime to consider political reform.
But how can they do it?
They have to axe their own being.
They are certainly very reluctant to do that,
but they have to. So, they are doing it by playing tricks."
Political observers suggest Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao
have set the scene, waiting for Xi Jinping to “draw his sword”.
Guo Yongfeng: “I think that when civilian forces
and pro-reform forces push the CCP to its limit, it will have to face a complete change.
Firstly, it will have to cancel the CCP one-party rule.
Next, it must lift bans on political parties and on the press.
Without these changes, other reforms will be pointless.”
Guo Yongfeng states that Xi Jinping is still thinking
about “political reform" under the CCP regime.
Guo believes that only sufficient
pressure can help end the tyranny.
Guo hopes that real political reform will occur,
in a way that is similar to Wang Yang’s assertion.
Wang previously claimed the need
“to put an axe in the head of the CCP.”
