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【世事關心】北韓威脅退出朝美峰會 實為中朝幕後攻略

紐約時間: 2018-05-25 04:21 PM 
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【新唐人北京時間2018年05月26日訊】【世事關心】(469)金正恩取消了與韓國的會談,其背後的真實意圖是什麼?「中共國家主席習近平有可能影響金正恩」,川普說的對嗎?
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Kim Jong Un cancels talks with South Korea. What is the real reason behind it?
金正恩取消了與韓國的會談,其背後的真實原因是什麽?

川普(美國總統):「中共國家主席習近平有可能影響金正恩。」
「The president of China, President Xi, could be influencing Kim Jong Un.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):川普說的有道理嗎?
Does president Trump have a point?

文昭(資深評論員):「我認為中共在其中發揮了作用。中共當前的處境有明顯的動機與金正恩協調行動步驟。」
「I believe Beijing played a role in it. By its current situation Beijing has clear motives to match up North Korea. 」

Scott Snyder(外交委員會對朝政策研究室主任): 「我個人認為金正恩之所以如此反應,更多是考慮到即將到來的文在寅與川普的會晤。」
「I personally think that the greater influence might be the fact that Moon is about to travel to Washington to meet Trump.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「您認為川-金會能達成協議嗎?如果能,那麼中共將面臨怎樣的情勢?」
「 Do you think Trump and Kim can actually strike a deal? If so, where would China be in the new dynamic after such an agreement?」

Scott Snyder(外交委員會對朝政策研究室主任):「 從中共的角度來看,美朝之間達成一個壞的協議反而是好事。即使無法讓朝鮮無核化,維持現狀對中共來說也是好的 。」
「A bad deal from China’s perspective will probably be seen as good because it will perpetuate the status quo even if it might not resolve in complete North Korean denuclearization. 」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):大家好!歡迎收看《世事關心》,我是蕭茗。是真的,金正恩又變卦了,他取消了與南韓的高級會談。這出乎人們的意料,因為前一天還一切正常,他關閉了一處核基地;釋放了三名美國人質;和南韓總統文在寅在板門店聚首。但是我們需謹記:金正恩的本質是不會變的。雖說他也許比他的祖父、父親更擅長在國際舞臺上縱橫捭闔。但是他的對手也換人了,川普總統和他的前任們也不一樣了。金正恩想重施故伎保住金家王朝,但是川普決心開創新紀元。事情究竟會如何發展?讓我們在這一期的《世事關心》裡探討。
Welcome to 《Zooming In》, I am Simone Gao. Yes, Kim Jong-un flipped again by cancelling the meeting with the South. This is surprising considering up until the day before the cancellation, Kim had been smiling. He closed a nuclear test site, released 3 US hostages, and walked back and forth with South Korean president Moon Jae-in over the Korean border. But Kim is Kim. We should never forget that. This Kim might be different in a way that he is more skilled than his father and grandfather at his maneuvers on the international stage. However, his counterpart is also different. President Trump is neither president Clinton nor president Bush or Obama. Kim wants to repeat history, but Trump wants to make history. How will this match proceed? Let’s explore in this episode of 《Zooming In》.

上周,朝鮮在約定的談判時間之前的幾小時,突然取消與韓國的高層會談。朝鮮國家電視臺宣布:「南韓當局已完全失去理智,他們應該對雙方的高層會談受到破壞負全責,對雙邊關系中出現的困難和障礙負全責。鑒於美國與南韓當局聯合舉行了針對北韓的富有挑釁性的軍事訛詐行動,美國應重新考慮已列入重要議事日程的北韓與美國的高峰會談。」
Last week, North Korea abruptly canceled its high-level talks with South Korea just hours before they were scheduled to begin. North Korea’s state television made an announcement:「The South Korean authorities, lost all senses, should be held wholly accountable for the scuttled North-South high-level talks and the difficulties and obstacles in the way of the North-South relations. The US will have to think twice about the fate of the North Korea-US summit being now high on the agenda in respect of a provocative military racket against North Korea in league with the South Korean authorities.」

Footage of NKorea’s announcement

朝鮮中央通訊社(KCNA)發表了一項聲明,聲明援引朝鮮外交部第一副外相金桂冠的話說:「如果川普政府『真正致力於』改善與朝鮮的關系,他們將獲得相應的回應。但是,如果他們企圖把我們逼到一個角落,只是迫使我們單方面棄核,我們將不再對此類會談感興趣,將不得不重新考慮即將召開的峰會。」他還稱,朝鮮無意以棄核換取美國的經濟補償。
A statement published by the Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) quoted Kim Kye Gwan,North Korea's First Vice Minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, saying 「If the Trump administration was『genuinely committed』to improving ties with Pyongyang,they will receive a deserving response. But if they try to push us into a corner and force only unilateral nuclear abandonment, we will no longer be interested in that kind of talks and will have to reconsider the upcoming summit.」 He also said North Korea is not interested in U.S. economic compensation in exchange for North Korea’s abandonment of nuclear weapons.

聲明還引用川普的國家安全顧問約翰·博爾頓前些時候的言論,稱朝鮮棄核可以參考利比亞模式。
The statement also referenced earlier comments made by John Bolton, Trump's national security adviser, about Libya being a potential model for North Korean denuclearization.

2003年12月,利比亞前領導人卡紮菲在與美國進行了數月談判之後,撤銷了他的核武器、化學武器和生物武器項目。但是後來,卡紮菲後悔了。他認為棄核得到的回報太少。他還不滿美國在與利比亞關系正常化、迫使以色列撤除核武器方面進展緩慢。2011年,阿拉伯之春爆發,在北約部隊的幫助下,利比亞政府被推翻,卡紮菲本人被起義軍擊斃。
The Libyan former leader Moammar Gadhafi dismantled his nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs in December 2003 after months of negotiations with the U.S. Afterwards, Gadhafi considered it too small of a reward for Libya for giving up its nuclear weapons program. He was also dissatisfied at the United States' slowness in normalizing relations with Libya and in pressuring Israel to denuclearize. The Libyan government was overthrown in the Arab Spring in 2011 with the help of NATO forces, and Gadhafi was shot dead by rebels.

金桂冠認為,博爾頓的言論是「用心非常險惡,企圖把利比亞或伊拉克曾經的命運,強加到我們這個有尊嚴的國家身上。這兩個國家因為整個屈服於大國而崩潰。」
Kim Kye Gwan refers to Bolton’s comments as 「an awfully sinister move to impose on our dignified state the destiny of Libya or Iraq which had been collapsed due to yielding the whole of their countries to big powers.」

然而,周五川普總統表示「利比亞模式」不適用於朝鮮。
On Friday, however, President Trump dismissed talk of applying the「Libyan model」to North Korea.

川普(美國總統):「我們在考慮朝鮮問題的時候,根本就沒想到過利比亞模式。我們把利比亞這個國家毀掉了,那個國家被毀了,我們沒有協議保護卡達菲,利比亞模式是一個很不同的模式。對於金正恩,我們是想讓他待在朝鮮,待在自己的國家,讓他繼續執政。」
「Well, the Libyan model isn't a model that we have at all when we're thinking of North Korea. In Libya we decimated that country. That country was decimated. There was no deal to keep Gadhafi. The Libyan model that was mentioned was a much different deal. This would be with Kim Jong Un, something where he'd be there, he'd be in his country, he'd be running his country.」

不管金氏當局出於何種原因突然改變了主意,但考慮到僅僅在一周前朝鮮釋放了三名美國人質,這一舉動還是令人驚訝的。就在一天前,朝鮮似乎已經關閉了一處核試驗基地。幾周前,金正恩第一次越過邊境進入韓國,與韓國總統文在寅會晤。早在今年3月份,韓國國家安全顧問告訴記者,金正恩邀請川普會面。他還說,金正恩「對韓美之間例行聯合軍事演習必須繼續進行表示理解。」
Despite the reasons the Kim regime gave for this sudden change of mind, the move is still surprising considering just a week earlier North Korea released three American hostages. Just a day before, it appeared to have shut down a nuclear test site. Weeks before, Kim Jong-un walked across the border into South Korea for the first time and met South Korean President Moon Jae-in. And back in March, South Korea's national security adviser told reporters Kim had invited Trump to meet. He also said that Kim 「understands that the routine joint military exercises between Korea and the United States must continue.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):為什麼會出現這個突如其來的變故?我們必須考慮另外一個動向。事發前一個星期,金正恩會見了中共國家主席習近平,那是他們在一個月內的第二次會晤。這個變故還恰好發生在劉鶴訪美,展開貿易談判之前。中共是否插手此事?我徵詢了外交委員會朝鮮問題高級學者,對朝政策研究室主任斯科特·施奈德。他認為,事件的主因確實是美韓軍事演習和利比亞的先例。對此我做了近一步的詢問。
Then how did the sudden change come about? There is another important event we need to take into account. A week before Kim’s dramatic turn, he met with Chinese president Xi Jinping for the second time in a month. The cancellation announcement also came right before Liu He’s upcoming U.S. trip for trade negotiations. Does China play a role in this? I spoke with Scott Snyder, senior fellow for Korea studies and director of the program on U.S.-Korea policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. Mr. Snyder believes the reasons for Kim’s withdrawal are indeed US-Korea military drill and Libya. I followed up with this question.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「今年三月,南韓國家安全顧問告訴媒體,金正恩向川普發出會晤邀請,他還對美韓舉行例行的軍演表示了理解,當時說的好好的,為什麼現在反倒成了一個問題?」
「What’s puzzling about the military drill is that back in March, the South Korea national security adviser told the media that Kim Jong-un invited Trump to meet and that he understood the routine joint military exercises between Korea and the U.S. must continue. Then why is it a problem now?」

Scott Snyder(外交委員會對朝政策研究室主任):「那時候討論的軍演是指每年三月美國與韓國聯合進行的軍事演習。今年,這個軍演被推遲到了4月。4月27日,朝鮮與韓國的領導人會面了,並簽署了板門協議。協議中雙方認可任何一方都不會進行給對方帶來威脅的軍事演習。協議中的語言含糊,沒有明確定義指的是什麽樣的軍事演習。我認為朝鮮只是想看看他能爭取到什麽。朝鮮認為這次軍演的意義,武器和設備違反了韓國與他的協議。我認為朝鮮能理解韓國與美國的軍事演習是常規演習,他只是不希望看到能給他自己帶來威脅的事件。」
「 The exercises that they were talking about at that time were the annual military drills that the U.S. and South Korea conduct together, usually in March, but this year they were pushed back to April. And then, the two Koreas, the leaders of the two Koreas met on April 27th, and they made this new declaration in which both Koreas pledged to not to take -- undertake military activities that could be perceived as hostile to the other. But it was a very vague statement, not well defined. And I think the North Koreans are just trying to see what they can get and indicate that they see the nature and equipment used in this particular exercise as violating the spirit of that agreement. And so I think that it is still the case that North Korea recognizes that the U.S. and South Korea have a legitimate reason to conduct exercises, but they don't want to see elements that they consider to be hostile or offensive.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「另一件事,在金正恩取消與南韓的高級會談之前一個星期,他與習近平進行了同一個月裡的第二次會晤。您是否認為金正恩的舉動是出於習的授意?」
「 Another thing is, a week before Kim Jong-un’s cancellation announcement, he went to China to meet with Xi Jinping for the second time in a month. Do you think that meeting has anything to do with this?」

Scott Snyder(外交委員會對朝政策研究室主任):「我個人認為金正恩如此反應,更多是因為文在寅即將來華盛頓見川普。對比金正恩去大連見習近平,的確,朝鮮和中國對美國在朝鮮半島的作用上有一致的看法。但我不認為習近平會那麽直接的影響到金正恩對此次聯合軍演的反應。那樣的話,動作就太明顯了。中共處事的方法有時出手很重,但多數的時候他們采用比較隱蔽的做法。所以他不太可能直接告訴朝鮮去反對美韓的軍事演習,更可能的解釋是朝鮮幫助習近平針對韓國訪美做出的反應。」
「 I personally think that the greater influence might be the fact that Moon is about to travel to Washington to meet Trump rather than the fact that Kim Jong-un went to Dalian to meet Xi Jinping. It is true that North Korea and China have similar perspectives with regards to the role of the United States on the Korean Peninsula. But I just don't quite think that Xi Jinping has been so specific as to suggest to Kim Jong-un that he should object to this military exercise. I think that's not a very subtle approach. I think that the Chinese modus operandi, it may be heavy-handed at times, but it often is relatively subtle and that particular approach of putting Kim Jong-un up to trying to push back against the U.S. are okay exercises. I think it was more likely that the North Koreans came up with that idea than that they're doing it at the behest of Xi Jinping.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「您如何看待川普總統提出的關於利比亞模式不適用於朝鮮的評論,還說如果棄核,北韓會由窮變富,金正恩也會繼續執政,如果北韓願意棄核的話?」
「What do you make of President Trump’s comment that the U.S. will not apply the Libya model to North Korea and that North Korea will get really rich and Kim Jong-un can stay in power if he gave up nuclear weapons? 」

Scott Snyder(外交委員會對朝政策研究室主任):「川普總統在朝鮮問題上很為難。朝鮮的反應意味著他們不接受利比亞模式。同時也意味著他們不會接受美國提供的經濟援助,如果他們棄核的話。朝鮮想要的是通過外交手段分階段棄核,同時實現關係正常化和獲得安全保障。當然,如果美國提供經濟援助,他們也想要。我想從朝鮮角度來看,他們很希望能得到平等對待。他們把美國對他們的承認看作是最大的安全保障。」
「 Well, President Trump's statement contains complexity. I think for the North Koreans because the North Korean statement of objected to the Libyan model, but it also objected to the idea that the United States was going to offer a lot of economic incentives to North Korea in order to achieve denuclearization. What the North Koreans really want is diplomatic normalization and security guarantees. And then of course, they will also take any economic assistance that the United States provides. But I think from the North Korean perspective, it's very important to be seen as on an equal footing. And really they're looking for acceptance by the United States as a kind of a hedge that would remove one of the largest challenges that North Korea perceives to its security.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):說到利比亞模式,請聽我與中國大陸問題資深評論員-文昭先生的討論。
As to the Libya model, let’s also hear my discussion with Chinese senior political commentator Wen Zhao.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「川普說,美國沒有想讓朝鮮仿造利比亞模式,還說美國沒有給卡紮菲保護。他說金正恩如果配合,他將讓朝鮮變得富有,金正恩也能一直執政。您認為,他心目中的協議到底是什麽樣的?金正恩,他更願意抱美國的粗腿還是抱中共的粗腿?」
「 To quote Trump, the U.S. doesn’t make North Korea follow the Libya model; it didn’t protect Gadhafi. He promised if Kim would coordinate, he would make North Korea rich, and Kim would stay in power. What’s Trump’s deal like? Whose arms would Kim prefer, the U.S. or Communist China?」

文昭(資深評論員):「其實我認為對川普這個話普遍有誤讀。他說沒有想把利比亞模式應用於朝鮮身上,更有可能他的意思簡單地就是:金正恩不用擔心,卡紮菲放棄核項目之後,在內戰中被西方打擊的情況不會在朝鮮身上發生。美國不會趁朝鮮無核以後攻打朝鮮,他的安全是有保障的。而不是說美國放棄了利亞那種先棄核、再補償的模式;也不是說美國準備接受朝鮮的分階段、同步去核的方案了。川普不是職業外交官,他頭腦中很多概念是混淆的,他的表達也是不準確的。利比亞無核化過程經歷了哪些細節我甚至懷疑川普是否都清楚。所以他的話主要是想緩解金正恩的安全焦慮。朝鮮所謂的“分階段、同步實施”的去核方案是要求的一個比伊核協議更寬大的待遇,如果川普接受了這個方案,那他退出伊朗核協議就成了一個笑話。永久地、可核查的和不可逆的三項標準就是川普最終想要的去核的目標。在美、中、朝這三者的關系中,朝鮮最終要導向誰?因為中共對朝鮮的袒護程度,也要看在與美國的貿易談判中朝鮮的利用價值,兩家關系缺少牢固的基礎,我認為這也讓金正恩難以建立對北京牢固的信任。」
「 Honestly, Trump’s remarks are widely mistaken. When he said he didn’t want to apply the Libya model to North Korea, he was simply telling -- very probably -- that Kim doesn’t have to worry: the fate of Gadhafi -- abandoning nuclear programs and being hit in the civil war by the West -- won’t happen to North Korea. The U.S. won’t attack North Korea after it gives up nuclear weapons -- Kim’s safety is guaranteed. He wasn’t saying the U.S. gave up the model of denuclearization coming before compensation for Libya. Nor was he saying that he’s prepared to accept North Korea’s phased, synchronous denuclearization program. Trump is no professional diplomat. So many confused concepts in his mind. I even suspect if he’s clear about details of the denuclearization process in Libya. Those of his words were mainly to ease Kim’s security anxiety. North Korea’s so-called “phased, synchronous implementation” denuclearization program is even looser than the Iran nuclear agreement. If Trump accepts, his withdrawal from the Iranian agreement will be a joke. A “permanently, verifiably, and irreversibly” denuclearized deal is Trump’s goal. For the U.S., China and North Korea, the extent of the Chinese regime protecting North Korea depends on the value of North Korea in trade talks. There’s no solid foundation for Sino-Korean ties. That, I judge, also makes it hard for Kim to anchor his trust in Beijing.」

接下來:請文昭揭示金家突然翻臉背後的中共因素。
Coming up, Wen Zhao explains China’s role in Kim’s sudden change of attitude.

金正恩單方面取消與韓國的高層會談後,中國外交部長王毅敦促美國保持冷靜。第二天,川普總統表示,中國國家主席習近平「可能正在影響」金正恩。
After Kim Jong-un unilaterally canceled the high level talks with South Korea, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged the U.S. to remain calm. The next day, President Trump indicated that Chinese President Xi Jinping could be influencing Kim Jong-un.

川普(美國總統):「他們在中國見面之後,事情就有些改變了。你知道,金正恩第二次去中國見習近平,這個會面是有些出人意料的。中國國家主席習近平可能影響了金正恩。但是,我們再看看。如果還你記得,幾週前,金正恩毫無預兆的又跑到中國大陸向習主席問好。我認為他們在慶賀航母完工,花的都是從美國賺到的錢。」
「I think things changed a little bit when they met with China. They met a second time, as you know, Kim Jong-un had a second meeting with China, which was a little bit of a surprise meeting. The president of China, President Xi, could be influencing Kim Jong-un, but we'll see,That's just look . if you remember, a few weeks ago, all of a sudden out of nowhere, Kim Jong-un went to China to say hello again a second time to President Xi. I think they were dedicating an aircraft carrier, paid for largely by the United States. 」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao): 川普總統的看法是否有道理?讓我們來聽聽中國大陸問題資深評論員文昭先生的意見。

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「川普也感覺習近平可能在金正恩突然取消朝韓會談這件事上起了作用。你覺得川普這麽想有道理嗎?」
「Trump feels that Xi could play a role in Kim’s sudden cancellation of the North-South talks. Is Trump right in thinking so?」

文昭(資深評論員):「我認為中共在這個過程中發揮了作用。除了5月7-8日金正恩去大連之外,在5月14日朝鮮還有一個代表團去北京,而第二天就是中國副總理劉鶴帶團訪美的日子,而再過了一天金正恩就威脅取消美朝峰會,這些事情在時間上如此地接近,以常理來推斷它們之間不會沒有聯系。以中共當前的處境有明顯的動機與金正恩協調行動的步驟,金正恩5月16日發出威脅,17日中美第二輪貿易談判就開始,中方可以說他有影響力讓金正恩安靜地留在談判桌上,相應美國應在貿易上做出讓步。美韓軍演並不是個意外的事,朝韓互訪、彭佩奧去朝鮮的那兩次都會向金正恩很清晰地傳達,金正恩一直沒有提反對意見。博爾頓關於“利比亞模式”的講話發生在4月底,金正恩在長達2個多星期的時間內也沒有做任何反應,在5月9日還釋放了三名美國人質,他的突然變臉應該是和近幾天來自於北京的影響有關。」
「 I believe Beijing played a role in it. Besides Kim’s trip to Dalian on May 7-8, another North Korea delegation visited Beijing on May 14. The next day Chinese Vice Premier Liu flew to the U.S. Just one day later Kim threatened to cancel the scheduled U.S.-North Korea summit. These events were so close in time that it’s hard to deny the connection among them. By its current situation Beijing has clear motives to match up North Korea. Kim gave his threat on May 16, and round 2 of Sino-US trade talks staged on May 17. China can say that it has influence to keep Kim quiet at the negotiation table, and the U.S. should compromise in return. The U.S.-South Korea military exercise is not a surprise. It was made clear during the North-South Korea visits and Pompeo’s two trips to North Korea. And Kim raised no objection. Bolton’s remarks on the “Libya model” occurred at the end of April. And Kim kept silent for a lengthy period of more than two weeks. He even released three American hostages on May 9. So his sudden change of stance might be due to the recent influence from Beijing.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「那麽,金正恩現在這樣做,想達到什麽目標?習近平又想達到什麽目的呢?」
「 Then, why does Kim do so, and what’s his goals? And what’s Xi Jinping’s goals?」

文昭(資深評論員):「習近平和金正恩在這個時候共同行動,是彼此借力向川普施壓。如果川普向中朝提出的分階段、同步實施的無核化原則靠攏,金正恩當然贏得了時間,最終有可能保留部分核武器,也緩解了經濟制裁;而在這個過程中中共也可以持續在半島發揮影響力。如果按照利比亞的去核模式,整個過程由美國強勢主導,北京會被邊緣化。而在朝鮮被邊緣化,在中美貿易糾紛中中共也失去了一張牌。金正恩配合中美貿易談判的時機發脾氣,對他自己也有一定的風險,按照中朝一貫的交道模式,我想他從習近平那裏收獲了某些利益。同時突然變臉也有刺激韓國的作用:板門店會晤讓韓國政府對未來抱有希望,期待達成南北和平協議、甚至啟動民族統一,因為害怕金正恩撤出談判,文在寅有可能做出更多讓步,並且有可能說服美國對金正恩妥協。」
「Both Xi and Kim chose to act together, and use each other to put pressure on Trump. If Trump closes up to the phased, synchronous denuclearization, proposed by China and North Korea, Kim will certainly win the time; in the end, he might even retain part of his nuclear weapons, and economic sanctions will be eased. Over the process, the Chinese regime will maintain its influence in the peninsula. If the Libya model is taken, the U.S. will dominate the entire process. Beijing will be marginalized. So will North Korea. Then China will lose a card over Sino-U.S. trade disputes. It is risky for Kim to lose his temper at the right time of Sino-U.S. trade talks. As in usual Sino-Korea practices, I believe, Kim has gained certain benefits from Xi. Also, a sudden change may upset South Korea: the Panmunjom meeting gave the South Korean government hope for a North-South peace agreement and even future national unity. For fear of Kim withdrawing from the talks, Moon Jae-in may make more concessions and persuade the U.S. into compromising.」

Coming Up: Kim Jong-un repeats history, but will President Trump?
接下來:金正恩重施故計,是否對川普有效?

盡管此舉令人驚訝,但金正恩並不是金氏家族中退出重要協議的第一人。此前金氏家族不止一次這樣反悔。
Despite the surprise, Kim Jong-un is not the first one in the Kim family who withdraws from important agreements. The Kim family has done this more than once.

1994年,美國克林頓政府和朝鮮簽署了一項框架協議。美國同意向朝鮮提供兩個輕水反應堆,以換取朝鮮裁軍。然而,美國懷疑朝鮮並沒有停止其核項目。1998年,美國要求察看寧邊的地下核設施。金正日表示同意,但要求追加3億美元作為補償,遭到美國拒絕。於是第一次協議以失敗告終。在布什政府期間,美國獲得的證據表明,朝鮮仍在秘密研制核武器。於是,美國要求將核查人員重新派往朝鮮。但遭朝鮮拒絕,朝鮮以發展核電為由,重新正式開啟其核項目計劃。
In 1994, the Clinton Administration and North Korea signed an Agreed Framework. The U.S. agreed to facilitate the supply of two light-water reactors to North Korea in exchange for North Korea’s disarmament. However, the U.S. suspected that North Korea did not stop its nuclear program. In 1998, the U.S. requested to inspect its Yongbyon underground nuclear facilities. Kim Jong-il agreed but asked for $300,000,000 in compensation. The U.S. refused and that led to the first collapse of the agreement. During the Bush administration, the U.S. obtained evidence that North Korea was still secretly developing nuclear weapons and requested to send inspectors to North Korea again. North Korea rejected it and officially reopened its nuclear program under the excuse of developing nuclear power.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):克林頓,小布什,和奧巴馬政府都沒能制止北韓的核武計劃。唐納德·川普改變了策略。他會成功嗎?讓我們聽聽文昭和斯科特·施奈德的意見。
The Clinton, Bush and Obama administration had not been successful in terminating North Korea’s nuclear program. Donald Trump used a different strategy. Is it better? Let’s hear what Wen Zhao and Scott Snyder have to say.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「川普的最大壓力原則有評論說是借鑒里根對付蘇聯的思路,您認為這是個好的策略嗎?適用於金正恩嗎?」
「 Some say Trump’s max pressure strategy comes from Reagan’s thinking to deal with the Soviet Union. Is it a desirable solution? Does it work for Kim?」

文昭(資深評論員):「我認為這對美國而言是個正確的策略。理由很簡單,不管是在朝核問題上,還是在對美中貿易上,迄今一切有利於美國的變化都是增加壓力的結果。對共產黨政權而言他們只看重兩個東西:第一是你的實力;第二如果你的實力占優勢,就是你運用這個力量的決心。西方國家從來不缺物質上的優勢、而是欠缺的使用優勢的決心。當你掌握著優勢而不想運用的時候,就和你沒有優勢是一樣的。在朝鮮問題上壓力政策要奏效不僅在於要貫徹於金正恩身上,還要施加於中共身上,甚至還要應用在韓國身上。但這是三種不同的壓力,對金正恩而言是經濟制裁外加軍事壓力;對中共而言是貿易制裁;對韓國而言,則是要督促文在寅堅守不妥協的立場。在伊朗核協議的問題上,川普表現出必要時可以脫離盟國單獨行動,對韓國也應當傳遞同樣的壓力。」
「 I think it is a correct option for the United States. The reason is simple. Any change made in favor of the U.S. results from added pressure, either in the North Korean nuclear issue or in Sino-U.S. trade disputes. For any communist regime, they are afraid of nothing but two things: first, your national power; second, your determination to use your national power. Western nations never lack advantages of resources, but lacked the determination to use them. If you have advantages in your hands but never think of using them, it’s just like you’ve never had them at all. In the issue of North Korea, if the pressure policy is to work, it should be applied not only to North Korea, but also to China and South Korea. Of course it should vary with each of them. For Kim, it is economic sanctions plus military pressure; for the Chinese regime, it is trade sanctions; for South Korea, it is urging Moon Jae-in not to compromise. On Iran’s nuclear agreement, Trump demonstrated that he can, if necessary, act alone without its allies. He should also pass the same pressure on to South Korea.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):斯科特 施奈德發表了他的看法。
This is what Scott Snyder has to say about this topic.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「川普在處理金正恩這個問題上,與他的前任不同。有人說他的『最大限度施壓』策略源於里根。里根當年的理論基礎是什麼?這一策略因何而成功?」
「 Trump is different from previous presidents in his dealing with the Kim regime. Some say his maximum pressure tactic is from Ronald Reagan. What is the philosophy behind Ronald Reagan’s strategy back then? And why did it work?」

Scott Snyder(外交委員會對朝政策研究室主任):「里根總統的哲學是以實力求和平。我認為川普的這種給朝鮮施加最大壓力的方案包含了里根的思想。與川普總統對比來看,讓我想起來了雷克雅未克的首腦會議。里根和戈爾巴喬夫就全球武器控制問題坦誠的交換了他們自己的想法,而不是官僚主導的內容,我想可能川普總統對金正恩也是這樣做的,除了雷克雅未克首腦會議,我想不出歷史上還有哪個先例可以幫助我們看清川普會以怎樣的策略對待金正恩。」
「 Well, President Reagan's dictum I think was peace through strength. And so I do think that the maximum pressure campaign contains elements that could be derived from that philosophy. But when I think of Ronald Reagan, and relevance to President Trump's current approach, what I think about is the Reykjavík Summit where Reagan and Gorbachev talked with each other about global arms control in an open and unscripted fashion based on their own ideas and not based on some kind of understanding crafted by the bureaucrats. And I think that is what president Trump may be doing with Kim Jong-un, and it's very rare, in fact. I don't think that we can identify a prior precedent, other than the Reagan Gorbachev meeting, that can help us to understand the way that President Trump is approaching his meeting with Kim Jong-un.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「您認為川、金會能達成協議嗎?如果能,那麼中共將面臨怎樣的情勢?」
「Do you think Trump and Kim can actually strike a deal? If so, where would China be in the new dynamic after such an agreement?」

Scott Snyder(外交委員會對朝政策研究室主任):「如果我們預測一下金川會將發生什麽,我認為有三種可能:好的協議、壞的協議、和達不成協議。從中共的角度來看,美國和北韓之間達成好的協議可能會改變朝鮮的戰略,這大概是中共所不希望看到的。從中共角度來看,達成一個壞的協議反而是好事,那意味著要維持現狀, 即便不會實現朝鮮無核化。從中共角度來看,達不成協議對中國來說也很糟糕,因為那意味著武力解決問題的可能性增加了。」
「So if we look at what might happen in a Trump-Kim summit, there are really three, I think, distinct possibilities: one would be a good deal, the second would be a bad deal, and the third would be no deal. From the perspective of China, a good deal, a U.S.-DPRK good deal, might also involve a change in North Korea strategic orientation. And I think China would see that as bad. A bad deal from China's perspective would probably be seen as good because it would perpetuate the status quo even if it might not result in complete North Korean denuclearization. And no deal from China's perspective would also be bad because it would raise the likelihood of return to military confrontation between the United States and North Korea.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):根據最新消息,金正恩在取消了和韓國的會談之後,他現在要韓國交回早先叛逃的12名北韓服務員,但這一要求被南韓拒絕。與此同時,美中雙方宣布,為改善貿易不平衡現象,中國大陸同意大幅增加從美國的進口。 看來美方初戰告捷,我們還要關注後續發展。我們這期節目就到此為止。感謝收看《世事關心》。我是蕭茗,我們下週再會。
The latest news is that after Kim Jong-un cancelled the meeting with the South, he demanded that Seoul return 12 North Korean defectors. But Seoul said those people want to stay in the South. Meanwhile, the U.S. and China both announced China has agreed to significantly increase purchases of U.S. goods and services in order to reduce the trade imbalance between the two countries. Not a bad start for America. Let’s see what happens next. This concludes today’s program. Thanks for watching《 Zooming In》, I am Simone Gao, and see you next week.



==============================================

Producer: Simone Gao
Writer : Simone Gao Jess Beatty
Editors: Julian Kuo Melodie Von Frank Lin
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網友 2018-05-26
这位美国朋友把中共和金正恩想的太好了!要知道中共邪灵是个魔鬼,而信仰共产主义的共产邪灵的信徒们,都曾向这个魔鬼发下过毒誓,因此这些邪灵的信徒是可以随时被中共邪魔操控的!<br>大家看到中共官员和金正恩的那些令正常人难以理解的行为,其实都是邪灵魔鬼的操控下而作出的。<br>邪灵的信徒们只不过就是前台的木偶,而这些信徒的灵魂是被中共邪灵绑架、囚禁起来了!
網友 2018-05-26
美国把中共与金正恩这样的流氓还是想的太好了!其实它们是人类根本无法想象的毫无底线的邪恶无赖!
網友 2018-05-26
文昭先生的分析很有道理!
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