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【世事關心】中國和俄國 誰才是對美國的最大威脅?

紐約時間: 2018-04-10 10:41 PM 
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【新唐人北京時間2018年04月11日訊】【世事關心】(465)中國和俄國 誰才是對美國的最大威脅?
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驅逐了60名俄國外交官,但是卻祝賀普京再次當選。川普的俄國政策到底是什麼樣的?
Expelled 60 Russian diplomats, but congratulated Putin』s reelection, what is Trump』s Russia policy exactly?

Vladimir Kara-Murza(開放俄國基金的副主席):「川普政府開始也抱着對俄友善的想法,但我認為最終很可能會事與願違。中俄兩國一起對美國發難」
「I would not be surprised if the current US administration that also came in with this notion of let』s be friends with Vladimir Putin. At the end of the day ends up in a very different situation.」

但是中俄聯盟會持久嗎?
Both have increased tension with the U.S. but can a China-Russia alliance last?

陳破空先生(時政評論家):「中共方面的意圖主要是拉攏俄國,為自己對抗美國的策略服務,所以同樣道理,俄羅斯也經常會做這個姿態。」
「the CCP』s aim is to win over Russia and serve its own end against the US. Similarly, Russia will often do the same when it has a tense relationship with the United States. 」

Vladimir Kara-Murza(開放俄國基金的副主席):「俄羅斯在這類關係裡只能當個被使喚的次等角色。」
「Any kind of relationship such as this can only have Russia as a junior and subservient partner in this relationship. 」

普京和習近平的最終目地是什麼?
What is the end game for Putin and Xi Jinping?

陳破空先生(時政評論家):「建立一個以北京為中心的世界經濟網絡,取代以美國為中心的世界經濟網絡。」
「it attempts in reality to create a Beijing-centered world economic network rather than a US-centered one。」

Vladimir Kara-Murza(開放俄國基金的副主席):「只要普京依然掌權,俄國就不會改變現行政策,也就是對內搞獨裁,對外搞挑釁和對抗。」
「however long the Putin regime will remain in power, the current course, both for domestic authoritarianism and for the aggressive and confrontational stance towards the West, will continue. 」

誰才是對美國的更大威脅?
And who is a bigger threat to America?

陳破空先生(時政評論家):「說到美、中、俄關係,我剛才講了,美國跟中共、俄國,美國的戰略報告、國防報告、軍事報告分析都認為中共的威脅已經超過了俄羅斯,其中很重要的一個依據就是經濟實力。」
「 As to the US-China-Russia relations, as I said, it is acknowledged that the threat from communist China has surpassed that of Russia, as shown in the US strategic, military and national defence reports, basically due to its economic strength. 」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):歡迎來到《世事關心》,我是蕭茗。川普總統對俄國和中國都是採用雙重戰略。一方面,他試圖和兩國領導人維持良好的私人關系,但是另一方面,他對兩國在政治和經濟上採取強硬態度。對俄國一方,表現在3月份美國驅逐了60名俄國外交官。對中國方面,表現在增加關稅和通過台灣旅行法。隨着美國和中俄兩國的關系越發緊張,中俄兩國走的越來越近。那麼川普的策略究竟是什麼?兩個和美國關系不好的國家能成為真正的盟友嗎?如果不能,兩國中的哪一個對美國威脅更大?這一集的《世事關心》,我們來探討這些問題。
Welcome to《 Zooming In》, I am Simone Gao. President Trump has had a dual strategy with both Russia and China. On one hand, he』s tried to have warm personal relations with both leaders. But on the other hand, he has been very tough on them economically and politically. For Russia, this can be seen in the US expulsion of 60 Russian diplomats in March. For China, it can be seen in the increased tariffs and the Taiwan Travel Act. As US relations with Russia and China become increasingly tense, Russia and China become increasingly close. So what exactly is President Trump』s strategy? And can two countries that are on bad terms with the U.S. become real allies? And if they can』t, who is a bigger threat to the US? We』ll explore these questions and more in this episode of《 Zooming In》.

4月3日,在和波羅的海三國首腦聯合舉行的記者會上,川普總統重申了他對俄國的強硬立場。
On April 3, during the joint press conference with the presidents of the 3 Baltic states, President Trump reiterated his tough stance on Russia.

川普(美國總統): 「我在俄國問題上的立場比任何人都強硬。」
「No one is tougher on Russia than me.」

川普對波羅的海國家的領導人好言安撫。後者一直在給美國和北約施壓,要求他們採取更多的地區安全措施,來防範來自俄國的威脅。白宮承諾將花近1億美元購買大口徑彈藥;白宮還承諾了大約7千萬美元的軍援項目,來改進這些國家軍隊的訓練和裝備。波羅的海國家則同意對自己能源的來源多樣化,減少進口俄國的天然氣,更多進口美國的液化氣。
These are soothing words to the Baltic leaders. They』ve been pressing the United States and NATO to take additional security measures in the region to deter any potential aggression from Russia. The White House promised nearly $100 million for procurement of large-caliber ammunition. They also promised over $70 million in training and equipping programs to boost their military. The Baltic countries agreed to diversify their energy sources by importing less Russian natural gas and more US liquefied gas.

3位領導人的訪問選在了一個特殊時刻。3月26日,美國驅逐了60名俄國外交官,作為前俄國間諜在英國被毒殺的回應。英國也驅逐了23名,法國4名,德國4名。在西方國家中,美國驅逐的俄國外交官最多。作為回應,俄國驅逐了150名西方外交官,相當於西方國家驅逐的俄國人數量的總和。
The visit took place at an interesting time. On March 26, the U.S. expelled 60 Russian diplomats for the poisoning of a former Russian spy in England. The U.K. expelled 23, France 4, Germany 4. The U.S. expelled the most among all Western countries. Russia responded with the expulsion of 150 Western diplomats. The same total number of Russians that the West expelled.

美國外交官從俄國被驅逐後不到24小時,俄國聲稱他們測試了最先進的洲際導彈,綽號「Satan 2」。根據4月4日CNN的報導,幾週前普京還炫耀了新武器裝備,包括Satan 2 導彈。
Less than 24 hours after the U.S. diplomats were expelled from Russia, Russia claimed they tested their state of the art intercontinental missile, nicknamed 「SATAN 2.」 According to CNN』s report on April 4, Putin offered a flashy display of new weaponry a few weeks ago, including the SATAN 2.

這個系統可以打到任何地方,可能會到達川普總統的海湖莊園。
This system has no limitation on distance….... could reach President Trump』s Mar-a-Lago home.

今年早些時候,為反制俄國侵佔克里米亞和軍事幹涉烏克蘭,川普政府宣布了更多對俄國的制裁。
Earlier this year, the Trump administration announced more sanctions against Russia in response to Russia』s occupation of Crimea and ongoing violence in Ukraine.

雙方的舉措,尤其是如此大規模的驅逐外交官,在冷戰高峰都是沒有的。但是,川普總統的一些做法確實有些令人困惑。
The actions from both sides, especially such a large number of diplomatic expulsions, was not even seen at the height of the Cold War. However, President Trump』s message is a bit confusing.

3月20日, 他打電話祝賀普京連任總統。在西方盟國中這麼做的只有法國、德國、意大利和日本。
On March 20, he called Putin to congratulate him on his re-election. France, Germany, Italy and Japan were the only Western allies that did the same thing.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):川普對俄政策到底是什麼?早些時候我採訪了開放俄國基金會的副主席Vladimir Kara-Murza,關於川普的對俄政策以及普京下一步的計劃。
So what exactly is President Trump』s Russia policy? I spoke to Vice Chairman of the Open Russia Foundation, Vladimir Kara-Murza, about President Trump』s Russian policy and what Vladimir Putin will likely do next.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「一方面,川普祝賀普京連任總統,另一方面,他驅逐了60名俄羅斯外交官,數量位居西方國家之首。昨天,在與波羅的海三國總統舉行的記者會上,川普卻說能與普京保持良好的個人關係。他的對俄政策到底是什麼?是否有效?」
「 On one hand, President Trump congratulated Putin』s re-election, on the other hand, he expelled 60 Russian diplomats, the most among western countries. Yesterday, during his press conference with the Baltic states presidents, he said he can have a very good relationship with Putin. What is Pres. Trump』s strategy in dealing with Russia? and Is it working?」

Vladimir Kara-Murza(開放俄國基金的副主席):「前幾屆美國總統,布殊、奧巴馬和現任總統川普,他們之間在政策上幾乎沒有連續性。但在處理與普京的關係問題上,他們卻表現了異乎尋常的跨黨派的連續性。過去歷任美國總統都試圖向普京示好,試圖與他達成協議、取得諒解。我們還記得,布殊說從普京眼中感受到了他的內心世界;奧巴馬宣布與普京重修盟好,並讚揚他為俄羅斯人民所做出的貢獻。我們也看到美國現任政府做了同樣表示。當然,祝賀所謂的大選勝利,已經成了一種不幸的、跨黨派傳統,布殊、奧巴馬和川普都這樣做。這種做法沒有任何意義,而且,令我感到非常疑惑的是,他們如何去面對現實,即每次俄羅斯舉行所謂的選舉時,來自西方國家的觀察員,包括美國在內的西方民主國家,都來監督俄羅斯的選舉,最後得出結論,這不是一次自由與公正的選舉、只是做做樣子,也並不民主。然而緊接着,這些民主國家的領導人,總統和總理們拿起電話,祝賀普京『勝選』。這就是我們上個月,2018年3月又一次看到的情況。我不明白,這兩件事放在一起合乎情理嗎?從一方面來說,祝賀普京當選是美國總統搞出的不好的慣例。但另一方面,譴責俄方選舉的不民主也代表了美國國會跨黨派的高尚傳統。在美國國會中的兩黨領導層支持民主、支持法治和人權的原則和價值觀。正因如此,幾年前才通過了《馬格尼茨基法案》。不論如何,美國國會至今仍保持着這種傳統。人們仍在堅守這種原則與價值觀,反對利己主義的功利政治。」
「Well, there are very few areas of policy continuity between the last few US presidents – George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and the current president, Donald Trump. But there is one area of remarkable bipartisan continuity: It』s their relationship with Vladimir Putin. All past US presidents have tried to make friendly gestures towards Vladimir Putin, have tried to make deals with him, have tried to find some sort of accommodation with him. We remember George W. Bush who looked into Mr. Putin』s eyes and got a sense of his soul. We remember Barack Obama who declared a reset in relations with Mr. Putin and praised him for the great work he』s done on behalf of the Russian people. We』re hearing all these signals from the current US administration. And, of course, the congratulating on the so-called election victory has also been an unfortunate, and long bipartisan tradition by US presidents – President Bush, President Obama, and now President Trump are doing this. And this, of course, makes absolutely no sense. And it』s really puzzling to me how you can reconcile the fact that every time we have a so-called election in Russia, observers from Western countries, Western democracies, including the US, who come to monitor these elections, make the conclusion that this was not a free and fair vote, this was basically a setup, this was not a real Democratic contest. But then you have the leaders, the presidents and the prime ministers of those same Western democratic countries who pick up the phones and congratulate Mr. Putin on his quote unquote 「election victory.」 And this is what we saw again in the last month, in March of 2018. I』m very puzzled as to how those two things make sense. So on the one hand, this has been an unfortunate tradition of US presidents. But on the other hand, I think it has been a much more noble, also bipartisan tradition on Capitol Hill in the American Congress. And there was principled bipartisan leadership in the US Congress in support of principles and values of Democracy, of rule of law, and human rights. It was this leadership, for example, that led to the passage of the Magnitsky Act in the United States a few years ago. And we continue, despite everything, we continue to see this today on Capitol Hill in the US Congress. We continue to see people who are prepared to take a stand in support of principles and values and against the cynical realpolitik. 」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「這就是說,您認為川普總統從當選到現在,在對俄政策上有轉變?或至少是態度上的轉變?我們知道川普剛剛當選時,他視俄羅斯為潛在的盟友。」
「Right, that said, do you think there is a policy or at least an attitude change towards Russia from President Trump between when he was first elected and now? Remember when he was first elected he somehow saw Russia as a potential ally. 」

Vladimir Kara-Murza(開放俄國基金的副主席):「如果我們回顧一下普京執政的近二十年裡,可以看出每位美國總統都想與普京做朋友,願意向普京搖出橄欖枝。布殊這樣做了,奧巴馬、川普也是如此。並且我們知道,前幾任美國總統最終都完全改變了對俄羅斯的立場。他們逐漸發現了事實,最終他們意識到,與普京不會有利益共同點。甚至連真正的夥伴合作都無法達成,一方是民主制度下的美國政府,另一方是腐敗、掠奪民財的極權政體──普京與克林姆林宮政權。我們清楚,布殊和奧巴馬在最後是怎麼對待普京的。如果現任美國政府一開始提出『讓我們與普京做朋友』這一概念,而最終立場卻大相徑庭的話,我不會感到任何驚訝。」
「Well, again, I think if we look back at the last almost two decades since Vladimir Putin has been in power, we have seen that every US president has come into office wanting to be friends with Vladimir Putin, wanting to extend a hand to Vladimir Putin. Bush did that, Obama did that, and Trump did that. And, of course, we know that those previous US presidents have ended up in very different positions. They came in contact with reality, as it were, and they finally realized that there cannot be, at the end of the day, a convergence of interest. There cannot be even a genuine cooperation of partnership between, on the one hand, a democratic system of government that is the US and, on the other hand, a corrupt, kleptocratic authoritarian regime, that is the regime of Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin. So we know how President Bush and President Obama ended their terms with regard to Vladimir Putin. So I would not be surprised if the current US administration that also came in with this notion of 「let』s be friends with Vladimir Putin,」 at the end of the day ends up in a very different situation. 」

蕭茗(Host/ Simone Gao):「普京下一步在美俄關係方面會做出什麼舉動呢?」
「 What will Putin do next in terms of US-Russia relations?」

Vladimir Kara-Murza(開放俄國基金的副主席):「正如我們從現代俄羅斯歷史中所了解的那樣,打壓本國公民的政權,也必定會在國際舞臺上變得更具侵略性。我們都見識了蘇聯政府的行徑。我們也看到了普京政府的所作所為。普京政權需要利用這種「被圍困的堡壘」心態。他們需要這種俄羅斯被敵人所包圍的形象。當然,普京的造謠機器所樹立的敵人主要是美國。因此我認為沒有理由期待普京在國內或國際上做出任何改變。我們可以這麼說,只要普京政府繼續掌權,或長或短,因為我們看到俄羅斯歷史上出現過政治上的轉折,但只要普京政權執政,從目前的形勢來看,無論是在俄羅斯國內實行的獨裁主義,還是對西方的挑釁和對抗,都將持續下去。」
「 As we know from modern Russian history, regimes that are repressive domestically towards their own citizens also, necessarily, in time, become more aggressive on the international stage. This is what we saw with the Soviet government. This is what we』re clearly seeing with Mr. Putin』s government today. The Putin regime needs this besieged fortress mentality. They need to have this image of Russia apparently surrounded by enemies. And, of course, the main of those enemies according to the Putin propaganda machine is the United State of America. So I think there』s no reason to expect Mr. Putin to change this course, either domestically or internationally. So I think it』s fair to say that as long as the Putin regime remains in power, for however long that will be, because we also know that Russian history has a way of throwing political surprises sometimes, but however long the Putin regime will remain in power, the current course, both for domestic authoritarianism and for the aggressive and confrontational stance towards the West, will continue.」

俄國和中國在對美關係上都處於低潮,但是這兩個國家能交好嗎?下一節為您關注。
Coming up, Russia and China are both on bad terms with the U.S., but can the two become real friends? Stay tuned.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):當西方國家,尤其是美國,為了前俄國間諜在英國被毒殺一事,正在與俄攤牌的時候,在美俄衝突之外,另一個重要國家也在臺前幕後,利用着這種複雜的三角關係在施展手腕,這個國家就是中國。
When the West, especially the U.S., had a showdown with Russia over the poisoning of the Russian spy in the U.K., the fight was never just between the U.S. and Russia. There is another important player in the background, or in a sense, in the foreground that levers this tricky triangular relationship. That player is China.

4月3日-8日,中共外交部長王毅和國防部長魏鳳和訪問了俄國。在4月5日舉行的記者會上,俄國外交部長和王毅共同譴責了他們定義的美國單邊主義。
On April 3-8, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and defense minister Wei Fenghe visited Russia. At a press conference on April 5th, the Foreign minister of Russia and Wang Yi
jointly denounced what they described as the unilateralism of the United States.

王毅(中國外交部長):「美國此時此刻以美國優先為由,對外頻頻的發起和挑起貿易戰,這是典型的單邊主義,也是赤裸裸的經濟霸權,不僅嚴重違背世界貿易組織的規則,動搖貿易體制的根基……」
「The US uses the trade war. It is typical unilateralism and an undisguised attempt at hegemony. It is a serious violation of WTO (World Trade Organisation) rules.」

當被問及對美中貿易戰俄國怎麼看,俄國外交部長重申了王毅的觀點,認為川普政府在國際事務中採取單邊主義。
Narration: When asked about Russia』s view of the U.S.-China trade war, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov echoed Wang Yi』s view of the Trump administration's unilateralist approach to international concerns.

Sergey Lavrov(俄國外交部長):「我們正在和一個挑戰國際既有秩序的政府打交道。他們試圖修改近期的所有關鍵國際協議。這些協議是國際社會共同制定的,其中絕大多數也由聯合國安理會批準了。」
「 Russian Foreign Minister: "We are dealing with an administration that is taking revisionist action on the global arena, seeking to revise nearly all key recent international agreements which were reached by the international community, and most of them approved by the UN Security Council.」

稍早之前,中國新任中共國防部長魏鳳和,和習近平的心腹,在同一次訪問中,就美、俄、中關係給出惡劣明確的立場。
Earlier, Wei Fenghe, the new defense Minister of China and a Xi Jinping loyalist, offered a clear position on U.S.-Russia-China relations during the same trip.

據俄羅斯國家通訊社「塔斯社」報導,魏鳳和說:「中國方面已經(到莫斯科)向美國人展示了中國和俄國軍隊之間的密切關係,我們來支持你們。」
According to Russian state news agency TASS, Wei said: "The Chinese side has come (to Moscow) to show Americans the close ties between the armed forces of China and Russia ... we've come to support you."

中俄之間的重振友誼,反映了他們分別與美國之間的緊張關係。對中國而言,這是貿易戰、朝鮮問題、和臺灣旅行法。對俄國而言,它希望加深俄美關係。與川普總統的關係,在川普競選與俄羅斯之間的勾結、以及其它各種紛爭的調查中,已經枯萎。最近的紛爭是英國前俄羅斯間諜的毒殺事件。
The reinvigorated friendship between China and Russia reflects the increased tension they have with the U.S. respectively. For China, it is the trade war, North Korea, and the Taiwan Travel Act. For Russia, its hopes for warmed Russia-U.S. ties under Trump have withered amid the investigations of alleged collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia and myriad other disputes, most recently the poisoning of the ex-Russian spy in Britain.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):但是,中國和俄國的聯盟能長久嗎?儘管俄國和中國在政治歷史上相似,兩國關係一直緊張。20世紀50年代的中蘇關係因為政治路線之爭而破裂。這為1972年尼克松訪華建立中美關係打開大門。今天,地緣政治結構已經變化。46年之後重燃的友誼要建立在什麼基礎上?我們來聽聽稍早我對開放俄國基金會副主席Vladimir Kara-Murza和本臺資深評論員陳破空的採訪。
However, can the alliance between China and Russia last? Despite historical similarities politically, China and Russia have had tense relations. The Sino-Soviet split in the mid 『50s broke off relations due to political divergences. The falling out opened China up for Sino-American relations when President Nixon visited China in 1972. Today, the geopolitical structure has changed. What will a renewed friendship be based on after 46 years? Let』s hear my earlier discussions with Open Russia Foundation Vice Chairman Vladimir Kara-Murza and Chen Pokong, senior political commentator and NTD TV contributor.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「普京是否視中國為盟友?俄羅斯和中國之間的利益互動是什麼?」
「Does Putin view China as an ally? What is the dynamic between Russia and China?」

Vladimir Kara-Murza(開放俄國基金的副主席):「普京過去幾年一直試圖把西方國家描述為俄羅斯的敵人、俄羅斯的威脅,這一點無論從哪個角度來分析都講不通。首先,俄羅斯本身就是西方文明的一部分。我們是一個歐洲國家、我們是基督徒佔多數的國家、我們是廣義上的西方世界的一部分,因此,把我們的天然盟友描繪成敵人是很荒謬的。而且,今天俄羅斯最安全的邊界是我們的西部邊界,是我們與北約和歐盟國家的邊界,而我們其他地方的邊界是否安全都不好說。如果普京的俄羅斯外交政策的基點,不再是俄羅斯與其天然盟友──歐洲、以及其它西方國家之間的關係,而是試圖與共產獨裁的北京政權建立某種夥伴關係,那他的這種做法,就直接與俄羅斯長期的國家安全和戰略利益相抵觸。因為俄羅斯在這種關係中只能是被使喚的小兄弟。例如在這次的煉油廠的管道項目中,是很明顯的。『西伯利亞力量』是向中國輸送俄羅斯自然資源的管道,那個項目幾年前就宣布了。即使從純粹的經濟角度來看,這個項目也不利於俄羅斯長遠的經濟和國家利益。所以我認為這是普京政權的短視行為,是為了服務於國內政治的需要,也有對內政治宣傳的目的,他在作戰略轉移,想讓俄羅斯遠離我們在西方的天然盟國,並嘗試與北京的共產獨裁者建立某種關係。」
「Well, Putin in the last few years has been trying to present Western countries as enemies of Russia, as a threat to Russia, which, first of all, makes absolutely no sense from any point of view because, of course, first of all, why do you speak – Russia is itself a part of the Western civilization. We』re a European country. We』re a Christian majority country. We are a part of the wider West. And so it』s absurd to try to present our natural allies as our enemies. Also, our most secure and our safest borders in Russia today are our borders on the West, our borders with the NATO and European Union countries, which cannot be said about our borders elsewhere. And when Putin is trying to reposition Russian foreign policy away from our natural allies in the rest of Europe and in the wider West, towards trying to build some sort of a partnership with a Communist dictatorship in Beijing, I think he』s – what he』s doing is directly contradicting the long-term national and strategic interests of Russia. Because any kind of relationship such as this can only have Russia as a junior and subservient partner in this relationship. And this is clear, for example, in this pipeline project. The 「Strength of Siberia,」 the pipeline delivering Russian natural resources to China. That project was announced a few years ago. Even from the purely economic point of view, this project is detrimental to long-term Russian economic and national interests. And so I think it』s a very short-sighted attempt by the Putin regime that wants to serve its own domestic, including its own propaganda purposes, that it is pivoting – trying to pivot Russia away from our natural partners and allies in the West towards trying to build some sort of relationship with a Communist dictatorship in Beijing. 」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):我還採訪了陳破空先生,關於中國的立場。來聽一下。
I also asked Chen Pokong what he thinks from China』s perspective. Let』s take a listen.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「中共政權怎麼看普京政權呢?視它為盟友嗎?「
「How does China view Russia? A potential ally? 」

陳破空先生(時政評論家):「我想中共政權、習近平政府並沒有把俄羅斯或者普京真正視為盟友,而是作為一個利用的對象。最近4月3日,中共的新任國防部長魏鳳和訪問俄羅斯,他說了這麼一番話,他說我把俄羅斯作為出國訪問的首站,是要向世界表明,兩國軍事合作的高水平,顯示兩軍的緊密的戰略合作關係。有報導說,他這番表態是異常大膽。他跟俄羅斯國防部長會見的時候說的這番話,但是俄羅斯方面卻沒有說出他這個調子的話,俄羅斯的國防部長也好,其他官員並沒有說出同等調子的。實際上中共的國防部長之所以說這個話他是說給美國聽,因為現在中共跟美國正處於全面對抗,雙方的貿易戰、或者貿易反擊戰,雙方在南海拉鋸,雙方在朝鮮半島問題上的尖銳的對立等等,所以在這個時候呢,中共方面的意圖主要是拉攏俄國,為自己對抗美國的策略服務,所以同樣道理,俄羅斯也經常會做這個姿態,當美國跟俄羅斯的關係緊張的時候,俄羅斯也會做出同樣的一個標誌。實際上中俄之間是互相利用,是做為對付西方的一個手段,如果說當其中任何一方和西方關係改善的時候,立即中俄之間的所謂戰略合作夥伴關係就破局了。」
「 I don』t think the CCP or the Xi administration treats Russia or Putin as a true ally. They just use them. On a visit to Russia on April 3, China』s new Defense Minister, Wei Fenghe, spoke with the Russian Defense Minister: 「I take Russia as my first stop abroad to show our high-level military, and close strategic ties to the world.」 It is reported that such remarks were unexceptionally bold. However, the Russian side, say, its defense minister or other officials, never aired similar views. In fact the CCP』s defense minister was purposefully irritating the US, because China and the US are on all-around tensions right now. Trade war or retaliation, the South China Sea issue, the tough Korean peninsula issue, and the like. So at this moment, the CCP』s aim is to win over Russia and serve its own end against the US. Similarly, Russia will often do the same when it has a tense relationship with the United States. In fact, China and Russia are using each other to vie with the West. Once either side improves its ties with the West, the so-called Sino-Russian strategic partnership will end. 」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「川普總統對普京和習近平好像都是採取了雙管齊下的方式。一方面,和他們盡量保持良好的私人關係,另一方面在政策上又給他們施加了很大的壓力。他這樣做的目的是什麼?有效果嗎?」
「President Trump seems to take a dual approach with both countries. He seeks to build warm personal relations with Xi and Putin. But he also takes a tough stance against them politically. What does he want to do and is it working? 」

陳破空先生(時政評論家):「至於美國總統川普和川普政府對中國和俄羅斯採取什麼態度,表面上來看好像是川普政府把中國、中共和俄羅斯都列為美國的戰略威脅,在他們的國防戰略報告,或軍事戰略報告或者國家戰略報告中都有書寫,但這裏面有個差別,把中共列在前面,俄國列在第二位,這是美國基於對冷戰之後最近幾十年的發展態勢作出的一個判斷。但是川普政府其實對中俄還有不同的態度,我們知道川普在競選期間就誓言要改善跟俄羅斯的關係,而他跟普京之間有互相欣賞、惺惺相惜的很多的言論。上臺前後他曾經有個戰略企圖,就是「連俄抗中」或者「連俄制共」,要顛覆以前的傳統,以前尼克松之後的幾任總統是「連中抗蘇」或者「連中抗俄」,對紅色陣營進行分化,是聯合中國。那麼現在川普政府上臺,明顯感覺時代的變化,因此他「連俄抗中」。但不巧的是,或不幸的是,他受制於通俄門事件的困擾,沒法改善美俄關係。因此從表面上看來,好像美俄關係在惡化,但是沒有實質性的惡化,我相信川普跟普京仍然在私底下期待雙方能夠改善關係。前不久普京連任總統,川普立即打電話祝賀,而且商討要進行美俄高峰會。但是習近平連任國家主席,川普至今沒有表態,沒有表達任何祝賀之意,既沒有賀電,也沒有電話,一反常態,他顯然表示對中共內部修憲、取消任期制的不滿,也是中美關係全面對立的一個氣氛,體現了這個氣氛。所以在這個情況下來看,川普不見得對中俄是雙管齊下,兩面同等待遇的一個態度,他顯然是明裡反中又反俄,但是暗地裡是反中共、親俄羅斯,或者拉攏俄羅斯,同時我們看到,俄羅斯最近有新的動作,就是跟越南加強了關係,向越南出售武器裝備和軍艦,而且越南邀請俄羅斯軍艦訪問越南的金蘭灣,而俄羅斯表示感謝。也就是說南海又多出來一個角色,金蘭灣只先後駐過美國和俄羅斯的軍艦,越南從來沒邀請過中國的軍艦去進駐,所以可以看出越南處理問題親疏有別,而俄羅斯在亞洲地區有跟越南、印度有個傳統的鐵三角,俄、越、印鐵三角關係,所以俄羅斯艦駐越南顯然不利於中共方面,顯然是要站在越南一邊,所以這是一個潛在的信號」
「Let』s see how President Trump and his administration treat China and Russia. Apparently, the Trump administration regards them both as strategic threats, as listed in its military or national defense strategy reports. But here is the difference: China always ranks as the No. 1 threat, while Russia ranks No. 2. The US has drawn this judgment from decades of post-Cold War developments. Specifically, the Trump administration makes a distinction between China and Russia. It』s known that during his election campaign, Trump vowed to improve his relations with Russia, and their remarks show that he and Putin bore mutual appreciation. Around his taking office, Trump had a strategic attempt to 「Unite with Russia and vie with China,」 quite unlike his predecessors, whose strategy was to unite with China to fight against Russia, undermining the Red Block. Now in the Trump era changes have come -- 「Unite with Russia to vie with China.」 Unfortunately, he was troubled by Russiagate, unable to better the US-Russian relations. So, on the surface, US-Russian relations are deteriorating, but not substantially. I believe Trump and Putin both expect to improve their bilateral ties under the table. Not long ago, after Putin won re-election, Trump immediately congratulated him and discussed US-Russia summits. However, Xi』s re-election won no congratulations at all from Trump. No call, even. Absolutely, Trump was expressing his disapproval of Xi』s constitutional amendment and repealing of term limits. This indicates a sign of all-around Sino-US confrontation. Judging from this situation, Trump does not necessarily treat the two countries equally. On the surface, he is both anti-China and anti-Russia, but secretly he is anti-China, but pro-Russia. We』ve also noted Russia』s recent moves to cement its ties with Vietnam: selling arms and warships to it. And Vietnam invited Russian warships to visit Cam Ranh Bay, and Russia expressed thanks. You see a new intruder in the the South China Sea issue. So far only American and Russian warships have been stationed there. Vietnam has never invited any Chinese warships. Clearly, it has been alert to China. Notice the old iron triangle: Russia-Vietnam-India. So the presence of Russian warships in Vietnam is obviously to the CCP』s disadvantage.」

普京和習近平的最終目地是什麼?中國和俄國誰才是對美國的更大威脅?下節繼續探討。
Coming up, what is Putin and Xi Jinping』s end game? Who』s the bigger threat to the US? Stay tuned.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):儘管傳統上俄國被視為歐洲國家,普京仍然將西方國家視為敵人。中國的習近平也對西方國家有野心。他們的最終目地是什麼?誰才是對美國的更大威脅呢?
Even though Russia is traditionally viewed as a European nation, Putin still sees Western countries as the enemy. In China, Xi Jinping also has ambitious goals in the West. What』s their end game? And who is a bigger threat to the U.S.?

俄國對美國和其它國家一直在主動出擊。不論是幹預美國大選,對美國的基礎設施進行網絡入侵,還是在英國毒殺間諜,有一件事是明顯的:俄國要證明自己依然是西方國家的均等對手。Julie Ioffe,《大西洋雜誌》的作家,在4月4日的Brookings論壇上這麼說……
Russia has been very aggressive both in the US and the rest of the world. Whether it』s meddling in US elections, cyber attacks on US infrastructure, or the UK spy poisoning, one thing is evident: Russia wants to show that it』s still an equal adversary to Western nations. Julie Ioffe, staff writer for The Atlantic, spoke about this at a Brookings forum on April 4th.

Julie Ioffe(《大西洋雜誌》作家):「西方國家在這件事情上應該明白,普京做這些事為了重新商議冷戰的投降條款,俄國大規模驅逐西方外交官,聲稱西方國家在毒殺間諜和干預大選方面沒有任何證據,我認為普京想證明西方國家,尤其是美國沒有辦法懲罰俄國,因為如果你能懲罰對方,你就是強勢的一方,或者是父母的角色,普京的這種咄咄逼人的表現是為了證實自己和俄國不是弱者,可以與西方平起平坐,不是可以隨便懲罰的小孩。」
「and, you know, the myriad expulsions on the Russian side; the statements about how the West hasn't proven anything -- both in terms of the poisoning and the election meddling -- is, I think, Putin trying to show that the West, and especially America, is not in a position to punish Russia because if you're the side punishing, you're the superior side, you're the kind of parent, or you're the senior partner or the parent in this relationship; and I think Putin is trying to very aggressively show that he's an equal; that Russia's a peer, and that it's not, you know, a recalcitrant child that you punish.」

另一方面,中國做的又不同。習近平的一帶一路戰略展示了一個遠超過亞洲範圍的野心。一帶一路從陸地上向西延伸到東歐;海上絲綢之路越過紅海、進入地中海,把沿線國家都包括進去。直接挺進歐洲經營了三百年的勢力範圍。
China, on the other hand, is different. Xi Jinping』s One Belt One Way strategy depicts an ambition that goes well beyond Asia. From land, One Belt One Way extends westward to east Europe; From water, the silk road crosses the red sea and enters the Mediterranean sea, casting its eye on all countries along the route. This is a region that has been under European spheres of influence for over 300 years.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):普京和習近平的最終目地是什麼?誰是對美國的更大威脅?中國還是俄國?來聽一下陳破空的看法。
What is Putin and Xi Jinping』s end game? Who is the bigger threat to America? China or Russia? Let』s hear from Chen Pokong again.

蕭茗(Host/ Simone Gao):「您覺得,通過一帶一路體現出來的習近平的全球戰略是什麼?」
What is Xi Jinping』s global strategy reflected by one belt one way?

陳破空先生(時政評論家):「說到『一帶一路』,這是習近平的一個經濟戰略,國際經濟戰略,因為習近平認為中共國力增強、崛起,成為第二大的經濟體,新興的超級大國,那麼得有所做為。在軍事上一時不見得走得出去,是在東海擴張、南海擴張,中印邊界有領土之爭,擺出一個強勢,但是要衝破第一島鏈、第二島鏈,那還是相當的困難。因此在經濟上要率先走出去,就制定了一個『一帶一路』的國際戰略,表面上是古代絲綢之路的一個翻版,但實際上這個『一帶一路』就是企圖通過中國的資金、投資,沿線國家,為中國沿途買單,贏得沿線國家的支持,進而建立一個以北京為中心的世界經濟網絡,取代以美國為中心的世界經濟網絡。同時呢,在這個過程之中,通過大量的基建投資控制沿線國家,使『紅色中國』、『紅色帝國』的這麼一個國際影響力隨之延伸。但是『一帶一路』實施以來顯得很不順利,首先是西方國家並不捧場,因為覺得『一帶一路』缺少兩個基本的東西,一個是沒有公開招標的機制,再一個沒有公平對待的機制,所以受到西方國家的抵制,即便在親中共的國家中,『一帶一路』項目也是連遭失敗。」
「Oh, that』s Xi Jinping』s economic strategy internationally. Because Xi Jinping believes that, as the second largest economy and the emerging superpower in the world, China must do something. Militarily, however, there isn』t much for it to do for the time being. Territorially, China has been expanding its influence in the East and South China Seas, and over the Sino-Indian border dispute. However, it was very difficult for it to break through the first and second island chains. So it needs its economy to go abroad first. That』s why 「One Belt One Way」 came out. The project seems to be a replica of the ancient Silk Road. However, it attempts in reality to create a Beijing-centered world economic network rather than a US-centered one, by investing with China』s capital in the nearby countries, which will pay for the bills, and winning their support. Meanwhile, it will control those countries through massive local infrastructure investment, and extend the international influence of 「a Red China」 or 「a Red Empire.」 But the project has been unsuccessful. Western countries have responded coldly. They believe there are two basic things absent: an open bidding process and a fair treatment mechanism. Even in pro-China countries the plan has met with failures one after another. 」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「對美國來說,誰是更大的威脅?中國還是俄國?」
「 Who』s the bigger threat to the US? China or Russia?」

陳破空先生(時政評論家):「說到美、中、俄關係,我剛才講了,美國跟中共、俄國,美國的戰略報告、國防報告、軍事報告分析都認為中共的威脅已經超過了俄羅斯,其中很重要的一個依據就是經濟實力。俄羅斯的經濟實力、經濟產值也就相當於中國的一個省,儘管有飛機、大炮和先進的武器及龐大的核武庫,但是缺錢缺人,所以在這方面來說,俄羅斯就大不如前,那麼在這樣的情況下,俄羅斯也在擴張,中共也在擴張,但中共由於它的經濟實力非常的龐大,而且它進行壟斷統治,俄羅斯現在是半民主國家,中共的壟斷統治不僅壟斷政治權利,而且在經濟領域、國家資源進行全面的壟斷,全部的資源歸於一黨,然後又進行一人統治,權力高度集中。在這樣的情況下,他可以進行國家總動員,綁架十三億人民一致對外,所以這個就給國際社會造成巨大的震撼。所以我想這些顯而易見,在美國看來,中共的威脅遠遠大於俄羅斯。」
「 As to the US-China-Russia relations, as I said, it is acknowledged that the threat from communist China has surpassed that of Russia, as shown in the US strategic, military and national defence reports, basically due to its economic strength. Russia』s economic strength or output is no more than that of one single Chinese province. Despite its aircraft, artillery, advanced weapons, and a huge nuclear arsenal, Russia is short of money and labor. So, its situation is much worse than before. Under such circumstances, both Russia and China are on their way to expand their influence. Comparatively, Russia is a semi-democratic state. Well, in communist China, the CCP monopolizes not only political rights, but also national economic resources in a much wider range. So, all of China』s resources go to one party, then go to one man. You see highly centralized power there. In this case, the top leader can mobilize the whole country, kidnap or coerce its 1.3 billion people to oppose foreign countries. It has a tremendous impact on the international community. So evidently, in the eyes of the American people, the threat from China is far more alarming than that of Russia.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):4月5日,川普總統說他在考慮對另外1000億美元的中國進口貨物加關稅,這讓美中貿易關係變得更加緊張。一天之後,美國財政部宣布制裁17名俄國政府高官,外加7名俄國大亨和12家俄國公司,作為對俄國幹預2016年美國大選的回應。這三國之間的緊張關係還沒有緩和的跡象。下一步會發生什麼?《世事關心》將為您持續追蹤。感謝您的收看,我是蕭茗,下週再見。
On April 5, President Trump said he was considering imposing tariffs on an additional $100 billion dollars in imports from China, a major escalation in trade tensions with Beijing. One day later, the US Treasury Department announced fresh sanctions against 17 senior Russian government officials, seven Russian tycoons, and 12 Russian companies in response to Russian meddling in the 2016 US presidential elections. There is no sign that the tensions among these three nations is subsiding. What will happen next? Stay tuned.《 Zooming In 》will always bring you fresh and complementary perspectives on the important issues in this world. This concludes today』s program. I am Simone Gao. We will see you next week.



============================
策劃:蕭茗
撰稿:蕭茗 Jessica Beatty
剪輯:郭靖 柏妮 凌帆 唐彬
翻譯:張曉峰 Frank Yue 唐彬
校對:李容真
聽打:Jessica Beatty 唐彬
旁白:Rich Crankshaw
採訪配音:Kacey Cox
攝影:Wei Wu
特效:Harrison Jiang
文稿整理:Merry Jiang
合成:唐彬

反饋請寄:ssgx@ntdtv.com
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新唐人電視台 《世事關心》4月
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