【新唐人2013年11月01日訊】房地產泡沫已經成為中國經濟增長的最不可預測的因素，令各界擔憂。日前，中共國務院發展研究中心主任李偉，證實大陸三、四線城市出現房地產泡沫破裂的現象。
10月29號，中共國務院發展研究中心主任李偉，在「世界工商協會論壇」上透露，根據國研中心的調研報告，大陸房地產市場的風險在進一步積纍，不但區域性分化的趨勢越來越明顯，三、四線城市的樓市供大於求，溫州、鄂爾多斯等地的房價已經開始下跌，出現了泡沫破裂的現象。
李偉認為，有多少三、四線城市的樓市出現泡沫破裂，以及嚴重程度，還需要數據支撐，他表示，「很多時候想拿到真實的數據並不容易」。
美國南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院教授謝田：「實際上在大概一、兩個月之前，中國房地產市場泡沫破滅的跡象就已經出現了，很多南方房地產投資商，開始大舉的拋售房地產，價格在很多地方已經開始大幅度下降，並且中國房地產市場，有價無市的現象，也被很多報導給指出來。」
10月28號，美國《福布斯》網站刊登《在中國，沒有一座城市沒有可怕的大片空房》，文章說，中國城市裡有很多空房子，住房供應嚴重過剩，中國房地產「泡沫總會破滅」。
美國一家名為商業內幕的網站，公布了鄭州市鄭東新區的衛星圖片，並從圖片上判斷，這只是「一片空屋的堆積」，可能是中國最大的「鬼城」。作為房地產泡沫的最終表現，「鬼城」危機正在中國三、四線城市蔓延。
前不久，國務院發展研究中心發佈的「383改革方案」中，涉及了房地產和土地制度改革，其中提出﹕房產稅將從試點到全面實施。
大陸經濟學家鄭先生：「地球人都知道了，現在官方也早就知道，為甚麼要調控，之前的調控就說明房地產的那種不正常的上漲，它會帶來對其他行業的衝擊，破壞經濟的良性循環運轉。」
李偉指出，中國一線城市的房地產泡沫，正在進一步膨脹。
謝田：「中國房地產泡沫已漲到遠遠超出了中國民眾的承受和購買能力，這些房地產，更多的是在中共的權貴有錢人和國企他們之間手中流來流去，沒有更多的老百姓把他們的財富積纍，或者是儲蓄金拿出來投資房地產的時候，房地產泡沫就沒有辦法繼續。」
中國房地產泡沫已經被世界各國的金融界所預見，並紛紛發出警告。投資大師、索羅斯基金管理公司創始人喬治•索羅斯（GeorgeSoros）表示，現在投資中國房地產市場將承擔重大風險。經濟學者分析，中國房地產泡沫將來破滅，比日本90年代房地產崩盤的情況要嚴重。
美國「南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院」教授謝田分析，一旦出現大規模的房地產泡沫，將會引發連鎖效應，不但會嚴重打擊房地產投資者的信心，也會打擊老百姓購買房地產的信心，人們一旦看到價格大幅下跌，就會收緊錢包，繼續觀望，很多剛買的人也會後悔，甚至會違約撕毀合同，都這樣做，將導致泡沫繼續破滅。
國研中心表示，期待這次三中全會能夠出臺一些調控的長效體制機制。
謝田：「中國房地產整個市場的崩盤，從三線、四線擴展到一線、二線，很可能就會在下面的一、兩個月之內發生，所以這是一個非常嚴重的災難性的後果，至於解決的方法呢﹖在中共這個統治下，基本上沒有解決的方式的。」
謝田指出，中共目前還沒有願望去懲治所有貪官，因為直接涉及中共權貴貪污或掠奪來的資產如何重置的問題。謝田認為，現在更大的問題，則是房地產市場泡沫破滅，將拖纍中國的銀行業，人們將看到中國銀行業更大的危機即將到來。
採訪編輯/常春 後製/舒燦
China’s State Council’s Think Tank: The Property Bubble Is Bursting
China’s property bubble has become an unpredictable factor
for it’s economic growth, and is the concern of many.
Recently, Li Wei, director of the Development Research
Center of the State Council (DRCSC), confirmed that
the real estate bubbles in third and fourth-tier cities
were initially bursting now.
At the World Industrial & Commercial Organization Forum
on Oct. 29, DRCSC director Li Wei said that according to
the DRCSC survey report, risks in Mainland China’s
real estate market continue to accumulate.
Not only are differences between real estate markets
in different regions becoming more obvious, property bubbles
in oversupplied third and fourth-tier cities are bursting.
For example, the property prices in Wenzhou
and Ordos City have begun to fall now.
Mr. Li says more data is needed to determine the total number
of cities affected and the extent of the severity.
Li says, “most of the time it’s not easy to access the real data.”
Professor Xie Tian of Aiken Business School of University of
South Carolina: “In fact, signs of China’s bursting property
bubble emerged around one or two months ago.
At that time, many property investors in the south of China
started to sell properties.
Property prices in many areas are dramatically dropping.
Moreover, the phenomenon of few buyers on
the property market has also been reported on many times.”
An online Forbes article published on Oct. 28 titled,
“In China There』s Not One City Sans Terrifying Stretches
of Empty Houses”, says many Chinese cities have many
empty apartments and a serious oversupply of housing.
It says China’s property bubble “will burst”
U.S.-based news website Business Insider posted a satellite
photo of Zhengdong District of Zhengzhou City.
The picture shows “massive new construction projects
that sit forlorn and empty after completion”,
which might be the largest Chinese “Ghost City”.
As the final sign of the property bubble,
the “Ghost City” crisis is spreading among
Chinese third and fourth-tier cities.
Not long ago, the DRCSC issued the “383 Reform Plan”,
which involves housing and land system reforms.
The plan suggests that the property tax
should be fully implemented after the pilot trials.
Chinese economist Mr. Zheng: “Everyone in the world knows,
and the officials have long known,
why the property price needed to be regulated,
the previous price regulation policy shows
the abnormal fast-inflating price will impact other industries
and ruin a positive economic cycle.”
Li Wei says the property bubble in the first-tier
Chinese cities is inflating further.
Xie Tian: “China’s property bubble has soared to
a level far beyond the affordability and
the purchasing power of Chinese people.
These properties are more likely traded among
the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) elite circles,
the wealthy, and the state-owned enterprises.
Once there are no more ordinary people investing
the property by their accumulated wealth or bank deposits,
then the bubble will be no way maintained.”
The bubbles of Chinese real estate have been predicted and
warned by the financial field across the world.
George Soros, investment guru and creator of
Soros Fund Management Company, says investing in China’s
property market now will be a major risk.
Economists say that China’s property bubbles would burst,
and the consequences were more severe than
the Japanese property collapse in the 1990s.
Professor Xie Tian says that once large scale
property bubbles emerge, a series of chain effects
will be triggered, which will deal a heavy blow
to the confidence of property investors and ordinary people.
As a result, once they see the dramatically dropping prices,
they will not buy and will keep watching.
Many who will have just made purchases will also regret it,
or even default and scrap their contracts.
These will intensify the bubble’s bursting.
The DRCSC says that it could be expected to
see a long-term price regulation mechanism in the upcoming
Third Plenary Session of the 18th CCP Central Committee.
Xie Tian: “The collapse of Chinese property market will
spread from third and fourth-tier cities into
first and second-tier cities, which might happen
in the following one or two months.
So this is a very seriously catastrophic result.
What is the solution for this?
Under the current CCP regime, basically, there is no solution. ”
Xie Tian says the CCP is unwilling to punish all corrupt
officials, as this directly involves the issue of how to dispose
of the property assets stolen by corrupt CCP elites.
Xie says the bigger issue is the bursting property bubbles,
which will encumber the banking industry, and hence
a greater crisis is impending for China’s banking industry.
