【新唐人2013年03月07日訊】《中央社》報導，朝鮮將廢除《朝鮮停戰協定》。分析人士認為，朝鮮的這一行動是為了反擊美韓軍演。但也有人認為，朝鮮是想拉響對戰警報。那麼，朝鮮的這個動作，是否表示朝鮮半島即將重新開戰？還是另有其他目地？下面請聽專家的分析。
3月5號，朝鮮《中央社》援引朝鮮人民軍最高司令部發言人的話說，美國和韓國進行的軍事演習是「針對朝鮮停戰協定的毀滅性的系統行動」。朝鮮決定從3月11號開始，完全廢除《朝鮮停戰協定》，並將停止朝鮮在「板門店」的代表部活動，切斷美國與朝鮮的軍事聯絡電話。
1953年7月27號，朝鮮人民軍、和中國人民志願軍，以及聯合國軍在「板門店」簽定關於朝鮮戰爭的停戰協定。主要的協議包括：1、確立軍事分界線，並建立非軍事區作為緩衝；2、敵對雙方停止敵對行為，撤出非軍事區；3、各方遣返戰俘。
朝鮮去年年底發射衛星後，聯合國安理會通過對朝制裁決議，朝鮮隨後進行第三次地下核試驗，對此美、韓等國繼續策劃對朝制裁，並從3月1號開始進行大規模軍事演習。這次軍事演習，韓國大約排出20萬的軍隊，而美軍派出1萬軍力。據報導，這次軍事演習會持續到4月底結束。
而朝鮮宣稱退出「停戰協定」，是否表示朝鮮半島即將重新開戰？
時政評論家伍凡認為，朝鮮宣稱廢除「停戰協定」，其實只是一種威脅，而這種威脅已不止一次。
時政評論家伍凡：「北朝鮮經不起打的。雖然它有很多坦克、很多軍人、但是它的武器、指揮系統、戰鬥力以及它的糧食、經濟都不行，沒有後力。畢竟它的週身地帶很小，人家一反擊它就沒有甚麼威力了。」
那麼，朝鮮為甚麼打出這樣的信號彈呢？
伍凡指出，朝鮮當局為了控制軍隊、社會和政黨，而玩花招、把戲。他們製造威脅，是想獲取利益。
伍凡：「它現在用這套東西來訛詐，你們要給我錢，並且我拿核試驗做買賣，它現在不僅僅是從政治上、軍事上，把它擴大到成為一個生意，並且還訛詐，我這麼訛詐，教訓你們還得給我錢，給我糧食，給我石油，變成這樣一個無賴。」
伍凡指出，金正恩想廢除「朝鮮停戰協定」，卻涉及中共。
伍凡：這個停戰協定就牽扯到中共，你中共要不要廢除停戰協定？因為你是參戰者之一，並且在上面簽了字的。所以不是像金正恩說想廢就廢了。如果它真行動了，真的廢除了，那它這朝鮮完全不顧中國的立場，根本不顧你中國的面子和裡子了，統統不管你，那等於和中國（共）翻臉了。這個我說它現在很難做到。它沒有力量。」
今年2月，朝鮮不顧國際社會的反對，毅然進行了第三次核試驗。外界質疑，對於朝鮮的核技術、設備、核原料從何而來？根據中共核工業部消息人士透露，朝鮮的核技術人員一直在中國接受訓練，最尖端的技術都來源於中共。中共實際上控制朝鮮核試驗的關鍵原料和技術、以及尖端技術人員，甚至有些實驗都是在中國核基地秘密完成。
「中共在朝鮮核試上賣甚麼葫蘆藥？」的文章作者說，朝鮮進行第三次核試驗，有人呼籲中共，應制裁朝鮮，斷絕援助。有的人說，朝鮮竟在中國人的家門口核試驗，毒害中國人，朝鮮，太說不過去了。然而，中共紋風不動，還放出風聲說，中朝邊界沒有測出核輻射，很安全。
因此，朝鮮這次宣稱廢除《朝鮮停戰協定》，是否同樣有中共的默許和支持，外界還在進一步觀察。
採訪編輯/唐睿 後製/黎安安
Interpreting Pyongyang’s Threat to End Armistice
According to the Korean Central News Agency report,
North Korea will scrap the Korean Armistice Agreement.
The action is thought to be a counter action
to US and South Korea joint military exercises.
Another view is that Pyongyang has warned of a war.
Will this action signal war in the Korean Peninsula?
Or is there any other purpose? Let’s see what experts say.
On March 5, the Korean Central News Agency cited
the spokesman for the army Supreme Command.
It said that the US and South Korean military
drills are “a vivid expression of their systematic
violation” of the 1953 ceasefire agreement.
Reportedly, Pyongyang will
nullify the armistice on March 11.
The activities of official representative
office at Panmunjom will be suspended.
Regular military contact with the U.S. will be shut off.
The Korean War ceasefire agreement was signed July 1953.
Signatories included North Korea, China and the UN forces.
The agreement mainly covers following points:
1, Define a military demarcation line, and
set up a demilitarized zone as a buffer;
2, Opposing sides cease hostilities, and
withdraw from the demilitarized zone;
3, Each party repatriate prisoners of war.
The UN Security Council has decided to sanction
North Korea for its rocket launch in December 2012.
Then, North Korea staged a third underground nuclear test.
While plotting further sanctions on North Korea,
the U.S. and South Korea started a large-scale
joint military drill on March 1st.
South Korea’s 200,000 strong force took part
in the exercise, with 10,000 troops from the U.S.
Reportedly, the drill will run until the end of April.
Now North Korea has claimed to cancel the 1953 armistice.
Does that means fighting will be
resumed on the Korean Peninsula?
Critic Wu Fan says it was North Korea threaten to end the
armistice, and has habitually made similar intimidations.
Wu Fan: “North Korea cannot afford wars,
although it has a lot of tanks and soldiers.
Its weapons, command system, combat effectiveness,
and food supply is weak, and lacks sustainable support.
Its territory is very limited, so it’ll become
powerless once opponents’ counter attack.”
Why did North Korea take such a stance?
Wu Fan speculates that they are using it as a tactic
to control the army, the society and the political party.
It attempts to gain interests under the guise of threat.
Wu Fan: “Now it uses this trick for blackmails.
It plays the nuclear strikes card, aiming
to get money and economic aids.
It has turned it into a business of coercion,
for money, food, and petroleum. It’s all rogue.”
Wu Fan says that Kim Jong-un’s attempt to invalidate the
armistice is linked to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Wu Fan: “The armistice agreement involves
the CCP. Is the CCP willing to cancel it, too?
Since the CCP is a combatant and a signatory.
So it’s not simple as Kim Jong-un’s decision.
If it really revokes the armistice, that
means it’ll ignore and fall out with the CCP.
I think it’s hard to go that far, for it has no strength.”
In February, North Korea conducted a third nuclear test.
The international community questions the source
of its nuclear technology equipment, and the materials.
Insiders in China’s Nuclear Industry Ministry
reportedly revealed that North Korea’s nuclear
technicians have received training in China.
The CCP offered Pyongyang the most advanced technology.
In fact, the CCP controls North Korea’s core nuclear
materials and technology, and it’s leading technicians.
Some experiments were even done
in secret at China’s nuclear sites.
newcenturynews.com published an article, entitled, “What
is the CCP’s real intention on N. Korean nuclear tests?”
The article mentioned that after North Korea’s
third nuclear test, some people urged the CCP
to sanction North Korea and to stop economic aid.
Some others criticized that the CCP doesn’t
make sense in ignoring North Korea’s nuclear
test, which was made near China’s border.
In reality, the CCP alleged that China hasn’t
detected any nuclear radiation created by the test.
Thus, is there CCP tacit approval and
support Behind North Korea’s threat?
The international communities are following the issue closely.
