【新唐人2013年07月13日讯】关于重庆市委书记薄熙来案将开庭的消息传得沸沸扬扬。有媒体爆料说,薄熙来案件,将于七、八月在山东济南中级人民法院开庭,而不是早前所传的成都中院。专家分析说,处理薄熙来案件牵扯到三个政治考量,令当局进退维谷。

去年底,薄熙来被北京市高检正式批捕,批捕的罪名不得而知。一般来说,中共高官落马后,会安排喉舌媒体《新华社》发稿,但薄案并未如此。

《法国国际广播电台》(RFI)认为,或者是因为薄熙来最后被起诉的罪名,仍未最后被各派系所议定有关。

《法广》上海记者引述薄熙来案的知情者消息说,薄熙来案很快将在山东济南开庭审理。一个月前,案件已经移交给山东检方,山东方面已经派员进京阅卷,为庭审做准备。

前国务院农村发展研究中心研究员姚监复:“我觉得从时间上,应该是在三中全会之前开,如果三中全会不确认,这个事情就得拖到四中全会了。那样的话,是不是太久了。把这个事情应该有一个了断。”

报导说,薄熙来被正式刑拘后,一直被羁押在秦城监狱,薄目前人还在北京,据说可能在开庭前才押解山东。

前中央党校学习时报副编审邓聿文:“我觉得是有可能,因为这个案子,它可能趁刘志军这个案件趁热打铁,否则放的时间越长,这个事情解决起来越麻烦。”

前“中央党校”《学习时报》副编审邓聿文估计,薄熙来很可能像刘志军那样被判死缓。但是知情者透露,目前确定薄熙来的罪名主要是受贿罪,就是大连富商徐明为薄熙来儿子薄瓜瓜留学提供的各种费用开销六、七百万元。

邓聿文:“如果说仅仅是六七百万,那死缓都判不了,无期徒刑都判不了,那可能就是一个有期徒刑。当然这跟老百姓的认知相差太离谱了。因为以前传说有各种说法,至少不会是六百多万。这样的官员贪污六百多万,一个小小的官员也上千万、上亿了。”

前国务院农村发展研究中心研究员姚监复指出,当局是把薄熙来这个政治案作为经济案来处理。

姚监复:“从他把政治犯当经济犯处理就准备从轻处理。因为按温家宝的讲话是把他当成文革式的路线问题,如果是那个问题的话,那就是政治犯的问题。”

邓聿文认为,当局处理薄熙来牵扯到三个政治考量。

邓聿文:“当然首先第一个最大的可能是共产党的形象,这是最大的一个考量的问题。金额太大,对共产党的形象不好,金额太少,民众那里过不了关。第二个考量就是太子党,元老,对太子党利益的触动,他必须要考量。如果把薄熙来判的太狠,判死刑,那你无法向太子党,向中共元老交代。如果判的太轻的话,那对民众也无法交代。另外他还有对所谓政敌的考量。政敌是不是抓住把柄?”

报导说,如果薄熙来认罪,则薄瓜瓜从徐明那里获得的金钱资助,罪责不必由薄瓜瓜承担,反之,薄瓜瓜可能面临司法追诉,因此,这可能是将来薄熙来认罪配合的关键。

报导还说,薄熙来在家中的隔离审查持续了不到一个多月。 4月9号,薄熙来被送往中南海,政治局常委、中纪委书记贺国强与他正式谈话。

第二天,北京通过官方媒体宣布,停止薄熙来担任的中央政治局委员、中央委员职务,由中纪委对他立案调查。随后,薄熙来开始了近半年的“双规”。去年9月28号,官方已宣布,开除薄熙来的党籍和公职。

当时官媒还发布通告列举薄熙来几大罪状,包括﹕薄熙来在王立军事件和薄谷开来故意杀人案件中滥用职权,犯有严重错误、负有重大责任。另外还有﹕利用职权为他人谋利,直接和透过家人收受他人巨额贿赂﹔与多名女性发生或保持不正当性关系﹔违反组织人事纪律,用人失察失误,造成严重后果。此外,还发现薄熙来其他涉嫌犯罪问题线索等。

采访编辑/秦雪 后制/肖颜

Three Considerations on Bo Xilai Case

Bo Xilai, former Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Secretary of Chonqing will be put on trial in Jinan
Intermediate Court in Shandong Province this July
or August, but not Chengdu Intermediate Court.
Experts analyzed that it involves three
political considerations in the Bo Xilai case,
which gave the Chinese authorities a dilemma.

At the end of 2012, Bo Xilai was formally arrested
by the Beijing Procuratorate, with unknown charges.
Usually, when CCP officials were arrested, state
media Xinhua News Agency would release news.
This did not happen for the Bo case.

Radio France Internationale (RFI) believe that this
might be because the charges brought against
Bo Xilai are yet to be decided by various factions.

The Shanghai correspondent of RFI quoted informants.

Bo Xilai’s case would soon be on
trial in Jinan, Shandong Province.
A month ago, the case was transferred
to the Procuratorate in Shandong.
Personnel had been sent to Beijing to
read about the case, to prepare for the trial.

Yao Jianfu, former researcher of the State
Council Research and Development Center:
“I guess it should be before the third Plenary.

If the third Plenary was not confirmed,
it may be prolonged to fourth Plenary.
In that case, it is too long. So there
should be a conclusion on it.”

It has been reported that after Bo Xilai was officially
detained, he has been kept in Qincheng Prison.
Bo is now still in Beijing. It is said he may
be sent to Shandong when he is put on trial.

Deng Yuwen, former deputy editor
of Central CCP School Study Times:
“I think it is possible. It may take advantage
of the sentence of Liu Zhijun, or else it would
have more trouble when postponed for too long.”

Deputy editor Deng Yuwen estimated that Bo is likely to
be sentenced to death, with a reprieve similar to Liu Zhijun.
Currently, Bo has only been charged with bribery.

Wealthy businessman Xu Ming, in Dalian,
provided Bo Guagua, the son of Bo Xilai
with about 6 million Yuan for overseas study.

Deng Yuwen: “If he is only charged for bribery,
he may even not be sentenced to death, with reprieve.
Nor life imprisonment, but may
be just a fixed-term imprisonment.
It is certainly too far from what the people had known.

There are many discussions about this now, and it could not
just involve 6 million Yuan in bribery for this level of official.
Even for a low-level official, he could have
taken tens of millions of Yuan in bribery.”

Yao Jianfu, former researcher of the State Council Research
and Development Center, pointed out that the political case
of Bo Xilai is dealt with as an economic case by the regime.

Yao Jianfu: “By treating him as an economic criminal
instead of a political criminal, the CCP is ready to be lenient.
According to Wen Jiabao’s speech, Wen had taken
Bo as the Cultural Revolution-style routing issue.
If it is the problem, he should be a political prisoner.”

Deng Yuwen believes that the authorities have three
political considerations in dealing with Bo Xilai.

Deng Yuwen: “Firstly, it impacts the image of the CCP,
which is one of the biggest issues to consider.
If the amount of bribery involved was too large, it is bad for
the image of CCP; but if too small, the people won’t believe it.
The second consideration is the princelings and CCP
veterans, so it has to consider the interests of princelings.
If Bo was sentenced to death, it cannot
reassure princelings or the veterans of CCP.
If Bo was sentenced too lightly, it cannot assure the people.

In addition, there is consideration of the so-called
political opponents. It may leave a handle.”

It is reported that if Bo Xilai pleaded guilty for
funds provided to Bo Guagua by Xu Ming, it
would be so Bo Guagua could be without guilt.
On the contrary, Bo Guagua may face judicial prosecution.

Rhis may be the key for Bo Xilai’s
guilty plea in the future.

The report also said Bo’s home quarantine
examination lasted less than a month.
Bo was sent to Zhongnanhai on April 9.

He Guoqiang, a Politburo Standing Committee
member and Secretary of the Central Discipline
Inspection Commission, had official talks with him.

The next day, Beijing announced through official
state media that Bo would be dismissed from
his position as a member of the Politburo.
The Central Committee, and the Central Discipline
Inspection Commission performed investigation against him.
Subsequently, Bo had nearly six
months of “double regulations.”
On September 28 2012, it was officially announced that
Bo Xilai was dismissed from the CCP, and public office.

Official state media subsequently
cited Bo Xilai several counts.
This includes abuse of power of Bo Xilai in the case
of intentional homicide by Wang Lijun and Gu Kailai;
serious mistakes and heavy responsibilities; making
money for others with the use of his authority;
accepting huge bribes directly, and through his family;

having improper sexual relations with a number of women;
violating organizational and personnel discipline;
misusing officials, which resulted in serious consequences.
It also found other indicators of Bo’s crimes.

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