【新唐人2011年2月9日讯】韩国和朝鲜2月8号在板门店举行上校级军事会谈，这是朝鲜去年11月炮击韩国延坪岛以来的首次会谈。韩国总统李明博2月1号表示，如果朝鲜表现出诚意，必要时可以举行韩朝首脑会谈。另一方面，中日钓鱼岛争端也趋向缓和。而近日，日本与俄罗斯就北方四岛争执再度升高。
去年韩国天安舰沉没事件和朝鲜炮击延坪岛，引发朝鲜半岛局势高度紧张。韩国去年共举行48次大规模军事演习，其中包括美国航空母舰在内的韩美联合演习。
今年元旦以来，朝鲜多次表达了尽快消除朝韩对抗状态、恢复对话的意愿。此后，朝、韩、美三方都下调了备战级别。
李明博总统则在元旦讲话中说，他相信新的一年能够实现朝鲜半岛和平。去年12月29号李明博表示，朝鲜半岛无核化问题只能通过六方会谈的外交途径解决。
今年1月19号，中美首脑胡锦涛与欧巴马总统举行会谈之后，在发布的中美联合声明中，首次针对朝鲜铀浓缩问题表示关切，并支持朝韩对话。
蔡建教授（复旦大学朝鲜问题专家）:“很多人认为，现在朝鲜和韩国的背后，是中国和美国，所以就认为，朝鲜和韩国能不能够改善关系，要看它背后的两个大国，是如何对这个问题能不能达成一致。”
中美共同强调朝鲜半岛无核化，受到韩国政府欢迎。中国人民大学国际关系学院教授时殷弘指出，这是自2009年以来，中国第一次间接批评朝鲜。而在中美首脑会谈后，朝鲜提议举行三年多来首次韩朝国防部长会谈。韩方接受提议，并要求朝鲜表现诚意和道歉。
2月8号，韩国和朝鲜在边界停战村板门店，举行上校级军事工作会谈，商讨了更高级别军事会谈的议题和日程安排等问题。
2009年4月安理会谴责朝鲜试射火箭，朝鲜宣布退出六方会谈、将重启核设施建设，并驱逐联合国核查人员。随后，朝鲜进行了第二次核试验。
去年11月，朝鲜向到访的美国科学家海克尔(Siegfried Hecker)展示了一处安装了2000台离心机的铀浓缩设施。
今年1月28号，联合国安理会对朝制裁委员会的专家小组提交报告指出，朝鲜拥有比伊朗更先进的铀浓缩设施。
曾任美国国务院朝鲜问题顾问的黄映镜认为，目前的外交努力看来会导致六方会谈的恢复。
他指出，这并不意味着以无核化为目地的谈判可能取得多大的进展，但这将是所有各方缓和紧张的一种手段，这对大多数国家来说成本最低。
金荣勇（台湾政治大学教授）：“就北韩来讲，它不去向西方国家包括像南韩等等，得到一些经济援助跟粮食的支援的话，它可能会撑不下去的这种情形。所以，迟早它还是会玩这一套把戏。”
目前，朝鲜正经历着1945年以来最长的严寒气候，粮食短缺处于近几年来最严重的情况，急需人道主义援助。联合国儿童基金会最近的报告说，32%的朝鲜婴儿因营养不良而发育不全。朝鲜83%的总人口依靠地下市场经济生存。
另一方面，中日将于2月下旬在东京重启副外长级战略对话，旨在协商防止中日撞船事件再次发生的对策，修复两国关系。
不过，日本外相前原诚司1月6号在华盛顿演时说，日本对钓鱼岛拥有主权的立场不变。而台湾总统府1月11号再次重申，钓鱼岛是中华民国固有的领土。
台湾总统府发言人罗智强说，钓鱼岛列岛从明代开始，就由中国人发现命名，经过明、清两朝数百年使用，并纳入海防，并不是无人岛，这个历史事实在文献当中有记录。
而近日，日本与俄罗斯对有争议的岛屿争端再度升高。自去年11月起，俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫、第一副总理和部长等政府高层，相继视察被日本称为“北方四岛”的南千岛群岛。
在日本外相2月10号访问莫斯科之前，俄罗斯国防部长谢尔久科夫4号视察了南千岛群岛，计划更新驻防俄军机枪炮兵师的装备。
日本政府将2月7号定为“北方领土日”，日本对俄罗斯计划吸引韩国公司开发北方四岛表示不满。当天，俄罗斯驻日本大使馆收到含有一枚步枪子弹的恐吓信。
7号，日本首相菅直人在东京出席“归还北方领土全国大会”，并带领1500名日本民众上街游行，他强烈谴责俄罗斯总统视察北方四岛，承诺日本决不会在索回北方四岛主权问题上妥协。
俄罗斯远东研究所日本研究中心负责人吉斯塔诺夫说，在俄日领土纠纷中，俄罗斯不会拉拢中国，或是与中国结盟共同对抗日本。不过，他指出，俄日之间的领土问题谈判将会变得更加困难。
新唐人记者李元翰、萧宇综合报导
North and South Koreas held a talk at DMZ on Feb. 8.
This is the 1st talk since North Korean shelling on
South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island, in Nov 2010.
President Lee Myung-bak said, if N. Korea is sincere
an inter-Korean summit could be held.
Sino-Japan Diaoyu Island dispute is also easing.
However, the dispute over the Four Northern Islands
between Russia and Japan has again escalated.
The events of Cheonan warship sinking and N. Korean
shelling on Yeonpyeong island last year sparked
high levels of tension on the Korean peninsula.
South Korea held 48 large-scale military exercises
in 2010, alongside the U.S. aircraft carriers.
Since the beginning of 2011, N. Korea expressed its
willingness to quickly eliminate confrontation and
restore dialogue. North, South Korea and the U.S.
all lowered their combat readiness levels.
President Lee Myung-bak said, he believed peace on
Korean Peninsula could be achieved in 2011.
He said on Dec. 29, 2010 that denuclearization of the
Peninsula could only be resolved by the 6-party talks.
After the Sino-U.S. summit, President Obama and
Hu Jintao issued a joint statement on Jan. 19,
expressing for the first time concerns about
N. Korean concentrated uranium issues
and supporting an inter-Korean dialogue.
Prof. Cai Jian, an expert on Korea at Fudan University:
Many believe that China and the U.S. are behind
North and South Koreas, so whether the two Koreas
can improve their relationship depends on
whether China and the U.S. would agree on the issue.
Both China and the U.S. stressed the denuclearization
on Korean Peninsula, which is welcomed by the South.
Shi Yinhong, professor of international relationship
at the People’s University said, this is the 1st time
since 2009 that China indirectly criticized North Korea.
After the Sino-US summit, N. Korea proposed to hold
a defense minister meeting. S. Korea accepted the move,
but request N. Korea to show sincerity and apologize.
On Feb. 8, North and South Koreas held a colonel-level
military talk at DMZ, discussing higher level
military meetings and scheduling.
In April 2009, the UN Security Council denounced
N. Korea for launching rockets.
The North responded by quitting the 6-party talk,
restarting the nuclear facility,
and expelling the UN nuclear weapon inspectors.
Soon after, N. Korea carried out its 2nd nuclear test.
In Nov 2010, N. Korea showed the visiting U.S. scientist
Siegfried Hecker a facility of 2000 centrifuges
for uranium concentration.
On Jan. 28, a UN report showed that North Korea
possessed more advanced uranium concentration
technologies than Iran.
Huang Yingjing, ex-consul on Korean affairs in U.S.
Dept. of State, believes, current diplomatic efforts
are likely to result in the restoration of the 6-part talk.
He pointed out, this does not mean the talk aiming
at denuclearization can make a major progress,
but it is a way for all parties to ease tensions.
This is the lowest-cost approach to most countries.
Prof. Jin Rongyong, at Taiwan’s National Chengchi Univ.:
If N. Korea does not obtain any financial support and
food supplies from western countries and S. Korea,
it would be difficult to survive.
So, sooner or later, it will come back to the talk.
Currently, North Korea is experiencing the longest
cold weather since 1945.
Food shortages are the most severe in recent years.
It is in urgent need of humanitarian assistance.
According to UNICEF’s recent report,
32% of infants suffer from ateleiosis due to malnutrition.
83% of the population relies on underground economy.
China and Japan will restart the deputy foreign
minister-level strategic dialogue in Tokyo in late Feb.
Its aim is to discuss measures preventing
future ship collisions and repair bilateral relations.
However, in his speech in Washington D.C. on Jan. 6,
Japanese Foreign Minister Maehara said,
Japan’s claim of Diaoyu Islands remains unchanged.
Taiwan Presidential Office reiterated on Jan. 11,
Diaoyu Islands are the territory of Republic of China.
Taiwan Presidential Office spokesman Luo Zhiqiang
said that Diaoyu Islands were discovered by Chinese
in Ming Dynasty.
After being used for hundreds of years,
they were included in China’s coastal defense,
and not uninhabited islands.
These historical facts can be found in records.
Recently, islands disputes between Japan and Russia
are on the rise again.
Since Nov 2010, many Russian senior officials,
Including President Dmitry Medvedev,
have been inspecting South Kuril Islands, which are
called “Four Northern Islands” by the Japanese.
Prior to Japanese foreign minister’s visit to Moscow
on Feb, Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov
inspected South Kuril Islands on Feb. 4, 2011,
planning to upgrade the Russian artillery’s equipment.
The Japanese government named Feb. 7
the “Northern Territories Day".
Japan is discontent about Russia’s plan to attract
South Korean companies to develop the islands.
On the same day, the Russian Embassy in Japan
received a threatening letter containing a rifle bullet.
On Feb. 7, Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan
attended “Reclaim of Northern Territories Assembly”,
and led 1,500 people took to the streets in Tokyo.
He strongly condemned the Russian president’s
inspection of the northern islands, and promised that
Japan never compromises on the sovereignty issue.
The head of Japanese Research Center at
Russian Far East Research Institute, said that
in the Russian-Japanese territorial dispute,
Russia will not draw China over to its side,
or form an alliance with China against Japan.
However, he pointed out that the territorial disputes
would make the negotiations more difficult.
NTD reporter Li Yuanhan
