【新唐人北京時間2018年04月03日訊】【世事關心】 (464)進來朝鮮峰會只是在朝鮮、韓國和美國之間進行,峰會基本上把中國和日本這兩個東亞國家排除在外,然而近況發生了變化,金正恩秘密會見了中國主席習近平。中國和朝鮮兩個國家的領導人,從不掩飾自己不喜歡對方。那麼所以他們現在之間的關係互動如何呢?為何金趕在與韓國和美國會談之前緊急會見北京呢?

朝鮮首腦金正恩上星期秘密訪華。他此行的目的是什麽?

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un secretly traveled to China early last week.What was the purpose of his trip?

陳破空先生(時政評論家):「他的要價就是立即讓中方停止制裁,大部分制裁,而且緊急的向朝鮮進貢。」

「immediately end China』s sanctions or most of them;pay urgent tribute to North Korea.」

習近平和金正恩二人在取得政權之後關係冷淡。這兩位領導人之間的互動會是怎樣的?

Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un have had acold relationship ever since they came to power.What is the dynamic between these two leaders?

陳破空先生(時政評論家):「所以雙方的利益的需求,使他們再一次走近,忘記過去幾年之間的血海深仇、之間的冷淡,再次走近。」

「Driven by common interests,they let go of their unpleasant past and shook hands once more.」

中美貿易戰展開,誰會贏得這場貿易較量的遊戲?

The US-China trade war has begun.Who will win in the economic pain game?

章家敦先生(Gordon Chang/The Daily Beast Columnist):「幾乎所有的大牌都握在我們手裏。過去美國唯一缺乏的就是政治意志。川普總統想必已經有了那樣的政治意志。」

「We』re holding almost all the high cards.The only thing the U.S.has not had in the past is political will.President Trump might actually have that political will.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):歡迎收看《世事關心》,我是蕭茗。近來,美朝峰會只是在朝鮮、韓國和美國之間進行。峰會基本上把日本和中國這兩個東亞國家排除在外。然而,最近情況發生了變化,金正恩秘密會見了中國主席習近平。中國和朝鮮兩個國家的領導人之前從不掩飾自己不喜歡對方。那麽他們現在之間的關係互動如何呢?為何金趕在與韓國和美國會談之前緊急會見北京呢?一些評論認為,這是警告美國、韓國,他們無法掌控中國與朝鮮之間的盟友關係。雖然川普總統獲悉習金北京會面後發推文表示樂觀,但是他心裏的真實想法是什麽呢?如果中美貿易戰能起到作用的話,究竟能起到什麽樣的作用呢?在這場中美經濟消耗戰中,誰更能堅持呢?我們將在本期《世事關心》節目中深入探討這些問題。

Welcome to《Zooming In》.I』m Simone Gao.Up until recently,talks of the US-Korean summit have only been between North Korea,South Korea,and the United States.It has largely left out Japan and China.That is,until last week when Kim Jong Un made asecret trip to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.The two leaders have never concealed their dislike for each other,so what is their relationship dynamic now?Why the urgent trip to Beijing before Kim』s official talks with South Korea and the U.S.?Some say it』s awarning to the U.S.and South Korea that they have no control over China』s alliance with North Korea.Although President Trump tweeted optimistically when he heard about the Beijing meeting,what was really on his mind,and what role does the US-China trade war have in all of this,if any?And who will win the economic Pain game between the US and China?We』ll explore these questions and more in this episode of《Zooming In》.

3月26日晚,有人發現一列長長的車隊從人民大會堂(中國官員立法和舉行重大儀式之處)沿著長安街行駛。一天前,該車隊一直跟隨著一輛神秘的列車,這輛列車從中朝邊境丹東駛來,沿途戒備森嚴。上星期早些時候此事激起廣泛猜測,認為列車裏的神秘人物可能正是朝鮮領導人金正恩——他們猜對了。直到金正恩返回重重警戒的列車後,中朝才在週三早上承認金正恩為期3天的到訪。這是他作為朝鮮領導人首次出訪。嚴格保密和警備森嚴是金家的一貫做法:金的父親和祖父也曾如此到訪中國,且只是在他們回到朝鮮之後才宣布他們訪問過了中國。

On the night of March 26,a lengthy motorcade was seen heading down Chang』an Avenue from the Great Hall of the People where Chinese officials have legislative and ceremonial activities.Escorted by heavy security,this motorcade followed amysterious train ride that passed Dandong,the North Korea and China border aday before.It sparked wide speculation early last week that this mysterious traveler was none other than North Korean leader Kim Jong Un–and they were right.It wasn』t until after Kim had returned on the same armored train that China and North Korea confirmed his 3-day trip Wednesday morning.It was his first foreign trip as the leader of North Korea.The extreme secrecy and security surrounding it is afamily tradition:Both Kim』s father and grandfather traveled in similar trains and only announced their China visits after they had returned to North Korea.

上週二,中國簡短告知白宮金正恩來訪一事,其中有習近平對川普總統的一段私人信息。習稱這場訪問「很順利」,而且金期待著幾週後與川普總統的會面。中國方面還說,金正恩願意與美國討論裁軍問題。雖然川普總統於3月9日同意會見這位朝鮮領導人,但這是金正恩自己首次提到此事。

China briefed the White House on Kim』s visit last Tuesday,which included apersonal message from Xi Jinping to President Trump.Xi said the visit went「very well,」and that Kim Jong Un looks forward to meeting with President Trump in the coming weeks.China also said that Kim is willing to discuss disarmament talks with the U.S.Although President Trump agreed to meet with the North Korean leader back on March 9th,this was the first time Kim mentioned it.

川普總統似乎對在金正恩訪華之後的美朝對話持樂觀態度,但是同時發推文稱「與此同時,遺憾的是,仍應不遺餘力地保持最大的審慎和持續施壓。」

President Trump sounded optimistic about US-North Korea talks after Kim』s China trip,but tweeted,「In the meantime,and unfortunately,maximum sanctions and pressure must be maintained at all cost!」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):早些時候我與時政評論家陳破空先生,就金正恩訪華一事進行了討論。

Earlier,I spoke with senior political commentator and NTD TV contributor Chen Pokong about Kim』s surprise visit to China.Let』s take alisten.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「有人說,金正恩訪問中國是習近平對川普貿易戰的報復,您同意這個觀點嗎?另外,習近平他想從這次金正恩的訪問獲得什麽呢?」

「Some say Kim』s visit is Xi Jinping』s revenge on Trump』s trade war.Do you agree?And what did Xi expect to harvest from this visit?」

陳破空先生(時政評論家):「當然,金正恩蒞訪北京,突然實行了習近平跟金正恩的高峰會。當然從習近平、從中方的角度來講,其中因素之一就是報復美國。美國發起了貿易反擊戰,對中國長期不遵守貿易規則的行為做出一個反擊,這時中共要在貿易上反擊的牌比較少,因此他要藉助其它問題。中國的官方媒體也說了,要在朝鮮問題、南海等其它問題上去損害美國的利益,說是讓美國感到「痛」。另外還有一點是,美國也剛剛通過了臺灣旅行法,加強了跟臺灣的關係,所以對中共來說基本上是把朝鮮當作一張牌跟美國打,所以說中朝的再度接近和習近平跟金正恩的突然會見、倉促會見,其背景就是中美關係的大變化,中美關係的顛覆性的變化,這個是一個大背景。而對習近平來說,至於得到什麼,實際上他要搶在金正恩會見韓國總統之前,4月份;搶在金正恩會見美國總統之前,那是5月份。搶在之前,中方跟朝方實行高級首腦會議,表示自己搶了個先機,一方面不會讓中方在解決朝鮮問題中邊緣化,因為當中方聽到了美國總統跟金正恩要舉行高峰會的時候,大吃一驚,他們就馬上採取緊急行動,不能被邊緣化,要把中方的角色加進去,因此這次會見就是告訴美國、告訴韓國,中國的角色仍然很重要,中朝這種傳統的盟友隨時可以恢復。」

「Well,Kim』s sudden move made the Xi-Kim summit possible.Of course,for Xi and China,one of their motives was to get revenge on the US.The US trade war is aresponse to China』s long-term disobedience of trade rules.Since it has few trade cards to rely on,the CCP has to fight back on other issues.As China』s state media put it,it will affect American interests on the issues of North Korea and the South China Sea,swearing to let the U.S.feel the「pain.」Another point.Considering the reinforced US-Taiwan ties after the approval of the Taiwan Travel Act,basically,the CCP deems North Korea as acard to counteract the U.S.So,behind this sudden,hasty visit was this:significant or subversive changes have taken place in Sino-US relations.A huge background.Back to what Xi obtained,he was in fact fighting the clock to realize asenior summit with Kim before he visits South Korea in April and the US in May.China wants to show it has seized the initiative,never getting marginalized.In fact,the May Trump-Kim summit took China back!It took immediate action to squeeze itself into later events.So,this visit is to warn the U.S.and South Korea:China is still vital;and the old China–North Korea alliance can be resumed at any time.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「從金正恩的角度來說,他想從這次會面獲得什麽呢?」

「For Kim,what did he want to get from this meeting?」

陳破空先生(時政評論家):「對金正恩來說,有兩個,第一個他要解決燃眉之急。因為他跟韓國總統會談是4月份,那麼要得到韓國的援助至少四月份之後。他跟美國總統的會見是5月份,那麼美國會不會給他援助,還要看雙方談的怎麼樣。那麼他現在面臨的是以美國為首聯合國全面的制裁,儘管中共在暗地裡還有一些支持,比如在海上貿易、海上的船對船的介面,對他偷偷進貢還有點支持。但是總的來說,他受到製裁壓力非常大,空中被切斷,路上通道被切斷,只有一點海上通道也受到了美國、日本、韓國等國的封鎖和檢查,因此他的經濟到了非常困難的程度。制裁的壓力使得北朝鮮政權、金正恩感到空前的危機,在這樣的情況下,他的燃眉之急要立即找一些援助。因此他之所以訪問中國,跟習近平高峰會,雙方都有需求,當習近平需要他來的時候,他也會提出他的要價,他的要價就是立即讓中方停止制裁,大部分制裁,而且緊急的向朝鮮進貢。朝鮮90%的糧食,90%的石油都仰賴於中國,這一點他要立即恢復,至少要把綠車皮的二十幾節車廂給裝滿,空車而來,滿載而歸,這是一個。再一個,他還有大的需求,他過去打核武牌、導彈牌的時候,他利用大國的矛盾,把大國玩弄於股掌之上,其實沒有大國能輕易動武,那麼現在他又玩和平牌,利用韓國換了一個和平主義或者綏靖主義的總統,那麼大打和平牌,打了和平牌,他成功了,他可以跟韓國總統會見高峰會,他可以跟美國總統高峰會,同時中方緊急的轉向,也願意跟他舉行高峰會了,他何樂而不為?因此在大格局上,金正恩也打開了,儼然成為最大的贏家,可以說是左右通吃,往東打通了美國這個大國的大門,往西又打通了中國這個大國的大門,再加上韓國的配合,所以在這種情況下,金正恩的需求是,以中國為背景跟美國談判,又以美國為背景跟中國談判,他可以說是左右逢源,看上去是躊躇志滿,大贏家一個。」

「For him,two things.First,he is mad to kick his top concern.He can』t get aid from South Korea until he has talks with its president in April.And he is unsure about U.S.aid after he meets Trump in May.But Kim is facing afull-scale,US-led UN sanctions.Despite stealthy support from the CCP,e.g.sea trade through ship-to-ship contact,Kim is under tremendous sanctions pressure:both air and land passages are cut off;even limited sea passages are blocked or checked by the U.S.,Japan and South Korea.So his economy is staggering;such pressure gives Kim an unprecedented sense of crisis.Therefore,his top concern is to gain aid.So,both he and Xi have mutual need for this visit.When Xi needed him,Kim gave his quotes:immediately end China』s sanctions or most of them;pay urgent tribute to North Korea because 90%of its grain and oil depend on China.This he needs urgently;at least about 20 of his empty,green carriages should be fully loaded with aid on the way home.Second,his bigger demands.Kim used to play the nuclear weapons and missiles card.He used conflicts between powers,fooling them as he likes—none would resort to force.Now he turns to the card of peace!With it he deals with South Korea』s new,pacifist President;and he gained asummit chance.Likewise,he succeeded with Trump.Then China,abruptly turning its policy,also agreed to asummit with him.So,why not accept the invitation?Strategically,Kim』s been asuccess,kind of the biggest winner.Eastward,he won afavor from the US;westward,he did so from China.And with South Korea as asupport.Kim』s strategy is negotiating with the US with China behind him,and negotiating with China with the US behind him.Well done!And seemingly aBIG winner.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「嗯,大家現在最關心的是,他折騰了這麼一大圈,最後真的會執行半島無核化嗎?」

「Will Kim Jong-un actually denuclearize North Korea after such fanfares?」

陳破空先生(時政評論家):「我想這種可能性非常小,根據歷史上金日成、金正日到金正恩的表現。尤其從金正日到金正恩這父子的表現來說,他們所謂棄核只是一個手段,他們本身製造了核問題,然後拿這個問題跟國際社會去要價。他們自己因為對內壓迫人民,對外威脅和平,自己把經濟搞得貧困和崩潰,但是卻要別的國家為他的經濟災難買單。那麼他買單的一個方式就是製造核武,製造核武器威脅其他國家,威脅韓國、日本、美國,整個國際社會,然後讓這些國際社會跟他談判,拖得他們被迫跟他談判,談判的目的就是向這些國家敲詐來彌補他的經濟慘狀,拯救他的經濟崩潰的慘狀,鞏固金家的政權。由於他的出發點是鞏固金氏世襲政權,因此他不可能真正意義上棄核,而且金正恩已經表示,在元旦左右就反覆表示,說朝鮮已經成為核國家、核大國,這個是無可逆轉的進程,而且說已經載入黨章、載入憲法,不可逆轉。那麼現在他跟韓國表態,不願意談這個問題。但美國他之所以談這個問題,美國認為你沒有把這個前提條件放到無核化、棄核這個前提條件下,美國是不會跟你談的。中方只不過是跟他演雙簧而已,過去是公開地演雙簧,現在是隱晦地演雙簧,中方對他棄不棄核,對中共政權來說並無所謂,而且他的很多核設施和核原料還是中方去的、從中過去的,所以最關心這個問題的是韓國、美國、日本,這些民主國家、和平國家。因此他是利用這個談判,他棄不棄核,而且要價多高,不得而知,他說了反話,他說要看美國和韓國的『善意』,要看是否同步的進行。那麼這個『善意』由他來決定,他如果說你提供了千萬的物資算『善意』,他也可以說不夠,要你100億才算一個善意,由他來定義,也就是說他隨時可以翻臉,就跟上一次金正日跟韓國談一樣,韓國又在開闢工業園區,又開闢遊客去旅遊,又給他大量的援助,他最後還是嫌不夠,仍然把這些援助拿去搞他的核武,搞他的導彈,所以作為一個共產黨政權,一個獨裁政權,我認為國際社會是不應該輕信的,所以在這個時候要認為他真正想棄核,我認為那這個路還非常的遙遠。」

「I think it』s very unlikely.Based on the track record of the three generations of Kims,especially Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un,the so-called denuclearization is nothing but ascheme.They created the nuclear crisis in order to use it as abargaining chip for foreign aid.Internally,they oppress and impoverish the people;Externally they threaten international peace.They wrecked DPRK』s economy and created adisaster,but they want other countries to foot the bills.Their plan is to build nuclear weapons,threaten South Korea,Japan,and eventually the US and international peace;force them to the negotiation table for ransom to save the Kim dynasty from atotal collapse.Because Kim』s ultimate goal is to strengthen his regime,there』s no way for him to truly give up the bargaining power that only nuclear weapons possess.Moreover,Kim Jong-un had repeatedly stated that DPRK had irreversibly become anuclear-armed state.It』d also been added to their constitution and party doctrines that would never be rescinded.Kim is unwilling to put denuclearization on the table when negotiating with South Korea.The United States,however,would never come to the table without DPRK』s agreement to acomplete denuclearization and disarmament.China has been playing along with Kim.It was done publicly in the past,but now they do it behind the curtain.China doesn』t care whether DPRK is anuclear power or not.As amatter of fact,many of North Korea』s nuclear facilities could not be built without China.It』s South Korea,Japan and the US that are most concerned about this issue.Kim knows it and has been playing the card against them.I』m not sure how high his price tag would be for denuclearization,but I』m sure he has no intention to follow through.He promised something that he would never deliver.Kim said that it depends on the"goodwill"of the US and South Korea.The judgment of"goodwill,"however,is totally up to him.If tens of millions of dollars were to be given to him as atoken of"goodwill,"he may turn around and say that』s far from enough.He may claim that only 10 billion dollars can be counted as goodwill.Just like what Kim Jong-il had done to South Korea last time.South Korea』s goodwill-the industrial park,tourism,and monetary assistance were not enough.Kim Jong-il never stopped developing his nuclear warheads and ICBMs.We shouldn』t be gullible and get tricked by the communist totalitarian regime once again.I believe atrue denuclearization is beyond the reach at this moment.」

接下來,習近平與金正恩的互動情況如何,川普總統對峰會態度又是什麽。請繼續收看。

Coming up,what is the dynamic between Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un,and how does President Trump feel about the summit.Stay tuned.

此次會面標誌著中朝關係的轉變。中朝關係自2011年金正恩上臺以來一直處於緊張狀態。金於2013年處決了自己的姑父張成澤,後者據稱向中國出賣了朝鮮利益。張成澤受到了習近平的支持。金正日同父異母的哥哥金正男被中國選定為一旦發生政變,金正恩下臺後的替代者。2017年金正男在印度尼西亞時,雖受到中國保護,但仍遭暗殺。

The visit marked achange in Chinese-North Korean relations,which have been tense since Kim Jong Un came to power in 2011.Kim executed his uncle Jang Song Thaek in 2013 for supposedly selling out North Korea to Chinese interests.Jang Song Thaek was backed by Xi Jinping.Kim』s half-brother,Kim Jong Nam,the China-picked replacement for Kim Jong Un in case of acoup that could remove Kim Jong Un,was also assassinated in 2017 in Indonesia while under Chinese protection.

金正恩與習近平自成為各自國家領導人後關係冷淡。他們從未會見過彼此,甚至習的特使宋濤在2017年訪朝時都未能見到金正恩。而他的前任李建國不僅在2012年見到了金正恩,且會見還作為頭條新聞在朝鮮中央電視臺播出。李建國的訪朝時間上在習近平成為中國國家主席之前。

Kim Jong Un and Xi Jinping have had acold relationship ever since they became leaders of their respective countries.They have never visited each other,and Xi』s special envoy Song Tao(宋濤)was not even able to meet with Kim Jong Un when he visited North Korea in November,2017,while his predecessor Li Jianguo李建國was not only able to meet with Kim Jong Un in 2012,but also made it to the top news on North Korea』s Central Television.Li』s visit was before Xi became the president of China.

然而,這樣的互動似乎已急轉直下。金正恩於3月26日到達北京後,在人民大會堂受到盛大歡迎,並受到國宴、藝術表演和午餐高規格的待遇。連金的父親金正日、祖父金日成都從未享受過如此高的禮遇。

However,that dynamic seems to have changed suddenly.When Kim Jong Un arrived in Beijing on March 26th,he was greeted with agrand ceremony at the Great Hall of the People and astate banquet,complete with an art performance and luncheon.Neither Kim Jong Un』s father Kim Jong II,or his grandfather Kim Il Sung ever received such awelcoming.

中朝關係的近期解凍意味著什麽?美國如何看待這一切,再來聽陳破空先生的看法。

What does the recent thaw in relationship between North Korea and China mean?How does America look at it?Let』s hear from Chen Pokong again.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「習近平上任之後,金正恩從來沒有訪問過中國,他和習近平的關係也一直很冷淡,但是恰恰在這個敏感時候金正恩訪問中國,而且習近平高規格接待了他,您覺得這說明瞭習近平和金正恩的關係現在是處於一個什麼樣的狀態呢?」

「Kim Jong-un had never visited China.He had never developed any personal relationship with Xi Jinping.However,he was well received by Xi during this crucial trip.What would you say about the current relationship between Xi and Kim?」

陳破空先生(時政評論家):「先是金正恩在2011年上任,後來習近平在2012年上任。在上任以來這兩人作為個人,雙方對對方都沒有好感,習近平試圖要改變過去的朝鮮政策,對金正恩很冷淡;而金正恩認為習近平沒有承認他的地位,還三心二意,也對習近平非常反感。過去發生了很多不愉快的事情,一方面雙方都沒有高層互訪,可以說金正恩提出、習近平也不會答應,即便是習近平提出來,金正恩也不敢去,應該說這兩人的個人關係非常的惡劣。那麼朝共和中共,北朝鮮和中共他們之間的兩黨,所謂的關係又是非常的複雜,意識形態的虛同,戰略上的犄角之勢共同對付美國文明世界,這個雙簧戲一直存在,只不過是時熱時冷、時高時低。那麼現在他們面臨一個選擇,就是對付美國,因為美國由於貿易反擊戰、由於與臺灣的關係,讓中共覺得泰山壓頂,他需要有別的方式來反制美國,同時北朝鮮也需要利用中共來對韓國進行更多的要價,所以雙方的利益的需求,使他們再一次走近,忘記過去幾年之間的血海深仇、之間的冷淡,再次走近。」

「Kim took power in North Korea in Dec.2011;Xi did it in China ayear later in Nov.2012.They had no need to hide their dislike of each other.Xi tried to change China』s past policies on North Korea.Kim had been snubbed by Xi countless times.Kim is resentful toward Xi because Xi failed to recognize him as the supreme leader of DPRK,instead Xi had asecret plan of replacing Kim with his half brother.There had been few agreements between the two communist leaders.Neither had there been any official high-level exchanges.I can confidently say that there』s no rapport between them.However,the relationship between CCP(Chinese Communist Party)and WPK(Workers’Party of Korea)is extremely complicated.They』ve been sharing an ideology that appear to be the same but is actually non-existing.They badly need each other,however,to resist and undermine the influence of the US.The alliance between the two totalitarian regimes has always been there.The strength of the ties,however,fluctuates from time to time.There』s anew challenge for the alliance presented by the Trump administration.Beijing has been squeezed by the threat of atrade war and the newly signed Taiwan Travel Act.It has no option but to pick up the North Korean card once again.In the meantime,Kim also needs Beijing to bargain for abetter deal.Driven by common interests,they let go of their unpleasant past and shook hands once more.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「再說一下川普這方面的反應。川普總統一方面表示樂見金正恩和習近平會晤,但是另一方面表示對朝鮮的最大限度的貿易制裁不能放鬆,那您覺得川普他對這次的金習會真實的想法是什麼?」

「President Trump seemed to be optimistic about the meeting between Xi and Kim.However,he insisted that the toughest sanctions against North Korea should stay.What does he really think about this meeting?」

陳破空先生(時政評論家):「首先,川普和川普政府對金正恩和習近平的突然會見應該感到是意料之外,沒有想到的。另外中方在訪問結束之後,可以說是先秘密,後公開,應該是朝方的要求,另外是先斬後奏,先搞的是向別的國家通報,中方做了一個通報,也保留了中美關係一定的對話性,同時呢通報中還帶了習近平的一封親筆信致川普,表示一下解釋,但是這個親筆信本來就是兩重含義,一個含義是,我通報你了,我還是很講中美關係的,我沒有把你當外人,解決朝核問題,我願意跟你合作。但是另一方面也是一個明示,我跟朝鮮的關係不是你美國所能動搖的,我跟金正恩的關係不是你川普跟金正恩的一次見面所能夠替代的,因此是對美國的一個警告,所以說川普發這個推文是一個禮節性的,但是可以說川普他不會抱幻想,對中共和朝鮮都不會抱幻想,因為川普不是一個像歐巴馬或克林頓一樣書生式的總統,他是個商人式的總統,講究實際,他要的不是談判,他要的是行動,當中美之間要談判的時候,他給一個百日談判計畫,如果說談不出結果,他就不再談判了,他就採取行動,貿易反擊戰,那麼當朝鮮要這個談判的時候,他可以給足你面子,實現一個朝美高峰會,他跟別的美國總統都不一樣,可以非常規的、出人意料的表示同意,我就跟你談。但是如果你北朝鮮耍花招,金正恩耍花招,試圖在核武問題上耍花招來套取美國的援助的時候,川普馬上就表示沒門,所以川普緊急換上了鷹派的人出任國務卿,國家安全部這些重要的職位,不僅是為對付朝鮮做準備,也是為了跟對付中共做準備,所以他心裏非常清楚的是,中朝會聯合起來對付他。這件事情的大背景就是中美關係的翻覆,中美關係急轉直下,中美關係面臨一個懸崖邊,在這樣的情況下,就像美國要打臺灣牌一樣,中共也要打朝鮮牌,這是這個事情的大背景。」

「I believe the Trump administration was surprised by the unannounced Xi-Kim summit.China only made it public after the fact,most likely per Kim』s request.After Kim left for Pyongyang,Xi sent the US anotification to keep the communication channels open between China and the US.Attached in the notification is aletter to Mr.Trump penned by Xi.The personal letter,however,delivers two messages between the lines.On one hand,the Sino-U.S.relationship is important to me(Xi).You』ve(Trump)never been treated as an outsider.I』m willing to collaborate with you to dissolve the nuclear crisis in North Korea.On the other hand,it』s clear that the China-North Korea alliance cannot be swayed by the US.So it can also be asignal of warning to the US.Trump』s tweet,in my opinion,is just acourtesy response.I don』t think Trump has any rosy ideas about the CCP and North Korea.Unlike Clinton and Obama,Trump is not ascholarly president,he remains arealistic businessman to the core.What he wants are actions instead of negotiations.Last year,when he was talking to Xi,he laid out a100-day plan.When there was no meaningful result from the talks,he put in place the tariffs and initiated the trade war.Trump is unlike any of his predecessors.When Kim asked for ameeting,he agreed unexpectedly against conventional wisdom.However,if trickster Kim intends to play anuclear trick for foreign aid,Trump would shut the doors.That』s why Trump put Pompeo,Haspel and Bolton into key positions.The hawks are released to deal not only with North Korea,but also China.Trump is crystal-clear about the implications of the Xi-Kim handshake.The events are set up in the grand picture of the fluid and changing Sino-US relationship,which is hanging by athread.Under such circumstances,when the United States plays the Taiwan card,the CCP would surely respond by playing the North Korean card.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):相似問題,我們再來聽一下《每週野獸》的專欄作家《核武攤牌:朝鮮對抗世界》的作者章家敦先生的看法。

For similar questions,let』s hear from The Daily Beast columnist Gordon Chang,who is the author of Nuclear Showdown:North Korea Takes On the World.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「川普總統對金正恩和習近平會面的真實想法是什麽?」

「How does president Trump really feel about Kim Jong-un』s meeting with Xi Jinping?」

章家敦先生(Gordon Chang/The Daily Beast Columnist):「作為第一步,川普需要繼續保持對朝鮮的制裁,我們必須這麽做。如果朝鮮有意與我們對話,也只是希望拿掉制裁。現在,美國總統稱金正恩與中國對話是件好事,但是從我們的角度看,當然不是如此。正如我們從2003年的六方會談中看到的,中國利用在會談中的中立位置,實質是在幫朝鮮,而不是幫我們,他們基本上起到的就是一個惡劣的影響。所以我認為,川普同意直接與金正恩對話是一個英明決策,因為這樣就可以把中國甩開了,現在中國想再次插進來。而我認為美國總統在與朝鮮會談的時候,應該讓中國人滾得越遠越好,因為在這方面中國是不會幫我們的。」

「Well,as an initial matter,Trump is going to keep the sanctions on North Korea,which we absolutely have to do.If there』s any reason why the North Koreans want to talk to us,it』s to get sanctions released.Now,the President of the United States may say it』s agood thing for Kim Jong Un to talk to the Chinese,but from our perspective,it』s certainly not.As we saw during the six-party talks that started in 2003,China used its central position in those discussions really to help the North Koreans more than to help us.They were generally amalign influence.So Ithought it was brilliant for Trump to agree to talk to Kim Jong Un directly because that cut out the Chinese.The Chinese are trying to reinsert themselves in the process,and Ithink that the President of the United States should try to keep the Chinese as far away as possible from his discussions with North Korea because China is not going to be helping us in this regard.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):您認為朝鮮真的會實現無核化嗎?

「Do you think North Korea will really denuclearize?」

章家敦先生(Gordon Chang/The Daily Beast Columnist):「金正恩最最不願意做的事情就是放棄核武。但這已經不是金正恩自己的問題了,這已經是川普的問題了。因為川普有能力在不動武的情況下迫使他放棄核武。所以我們就可以制裁那些幫朝鮮洗錢的中國銀行。我們還可以對朝鮮貿易進一步加以限制。我們有很多種方案,只是我們是否有這樣的政治意志去實施。所以叫我看來,金正恩是否放棄他的核武不是他自己說了算的,是川普說了算的。」

「Kim Jong Un–the last thing he wants to do is give up his weapons.But this is not aKim Jong Un issue.This is aDonald Trump issue.Because Trump has the ability to force him to give up his weapons even without using force.So we can put sanctions on Chinese banks that have been laundering money for the North Koreans.We can be putting even tighter restrictions on North Korean trade.All sorts of things are in our toolbox.It』s just aquestion whether we have the political will to use them.So whether Kim Jong Un gives up his nukes is not aKim question in my mind.It』s aTrump question.」

接下來,在中美之間,誰會贏的貿易戰?敬請收看。

Coming up,Between U.S.and China,who will win in the economic pain game?Stay tuned

中美貿易戰已經打響。川普總統下令,擬對中國價值500億至600億美元的出口貨物征收關稅。這些貨物涉及航空、信息和通信技術以及機械領域。作為回應,中國已確定一份包括128種商品的清單,將對清單內價值30億美元的美國產品徵稅,以示報復。

A trade war has begun.President Trump issued an order to levy tariffs on$50-to$60 billion dollars』worth of Chinese goods in the areas of aerospace,information and communication technology,and machinery.In response,China identified alist of 128 goods,targeting$3 billion dollars』worth of U.S.products for retaliation.

3月21日,美國貿易代表羅伯特.萊特希澤在國會證詞中解釋了美國在選定徵稅商品時所採用的兩個標準。他解釋說他們開發了一種演算法,該演算法既能最大限度的從經濟上懲罰中國,同時對美國消費者的影響又會最小。採用的第二個標準就是中國自己搞的《中國製造2025計畫》,就是全面升級中國工業的計畫。

On March 21,Robert Lighthizer,the US Trade Representative,explained in his testimony before Congress how he used two criteria in selecting goods.He explained that they developed an algorithm that imposes maximum economic pain on China with aminimum impact to U.S.consumers.The second criteria used was China』s own「Made in China 2025,」a comprehensive initiative to upgrade Chinese industry.

另一方面,中國對價值30億美元的商品進行徵稅,其目標即集中在那份128種產品的清單上。排在前列的是:葡萄酒、水果和堅果、鋼管、改性乙醇和花旗參。

Narration:On the other hand,China』s$3 billion-dollar target focused on alist of 128 products.The top of the list includes wine,fruits and nuts,steel pipes,modified ethanol,and ginseng.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):雙方似乎都願意談判解決,但同時也都聲稱並不懼怕打一場貿易戰。如果雙輸的結局無法避免,那麽哪一方能堅持更久,哪一方會敗下陣來呢?而且,最終又是誰為貿易戰買單?我採訪到經濟專家Gordon Chang,讓我們來聽聽他的意見。

Both sides seem to be open for negotiation but have also claimed that they are not afraid of atrade war.If alose-lose situation becomes unavoidable,who will be able to endure,and who will back down?And ultimately,who will end up paying the price?I asked Gordon Chang what he thinks will happen.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「中國和美國現在看來各自立場都很堅定。如果貿易戰帶來雙輸的局面,您認為哪個國家有能力忍受更長時間的痛苦?」

「Both China and the US are taking firm positions right now.If atrade war brings alose-lose situation,which country,in your opinion,can endure the pain longer?」

章家敦先生(Gordon Chang/The Daily Beast Columnist):「很多人認為中國方面更能打持久戰,因為中國是一個專制社會。中國領導人可以做出調整。是的,他們當然可以調整。但是,我們別忘了,中國的經濟很脆弱。中共的合法性依賴於他們能給人民帶來持續的經濟繁榮。從我們的角度來看,別忘了在2016年的時候,中國商品貿易順差總額的68.0%來自於出口美國。這說明中國經濟對美國市場的依賴程度是令人吃驚的。而去年,同比上升到88.8%。因此,商品貿易為逆差的國家對貿易戰確實不太擔心。而像中國這樣貿易為順差的國家則必定擔心。另外,不僅如此,還有其它方面值得考量。我們的經濟是穩定的。而中國的經濟是脆弱的,正朝著債務危機的方向發展。此外,美國的經濟總量比中國大得多。我們的GDP超過19萬億美元。中國也就12萬億多一點吧,假如你相信他們帶水分的數字的話。這世界總是大經濟體說了算,小經濟體靠邊站。幾乎所有的大牌都握在我們手裏。過去美國唯一缺乏的就是政治意志。川普總統想必已經有了這個政治意志。所以貿易戰一定是我們贏。」

「Many people say China will endure the pain longer because they say it』s an authoritarian society.Chinese leaders can make adjustments.Well,yeah,they can make adjustments.But let』s remember that it』s fragile,that they have based their legitimacy on the continual delivery of prosperity.From our side,we』ve got to remember that in 2016,68.0 percent of China』s overall merchandise trade surplus related to sales to the United States.That』s an incredible dependency on the U.S.market.And last year that number went up to 88.8 percent.And so trade-deficit countries don』t really worry too much about trade wars.Trade-surplus countries like China certainly need to.And we』ve got,remember,some other things.We have astable economy.China has afragile one,heading into adebt crisis.And our economy is much larger than China』s.Our economy is over$19 trillion dollars GDP.Theirs is somewhat over 12 if you believe their inflated numbers.Big economies push small economies around.We』re holding almost all the high cards.The only thing the U.S.has not had in the past is political will.President Trump might actually have that political will.So we should win the trade war.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「您認為,公平貿易最終誰會受益?有人認為,公平貿易也會令中國消費者受益,因為美國的產品可能更便宜。您同意嗎?」

「Who do you think will end up benefiting from fair trade?Some argue that fairer trade would also help Chinese consumers since US products may become cheaper.Do you agree?」

章家敦先生(Gordon Chang/The Daily Beast Columnist):「當然。一個更開放的經濟,意味著中國的產品會更便宜。這一點毫無疑問。不過,我倒認為,對美國來說,真正的關鍵是,如果我們與中國開打貿易戰,美國的物價不會漲。因為,首先很多商品中國的生產成本並不低。現在生產成本低的是孟加拉國、約旦、墨西哥、瓜地馬拉這些國家。現在我們就從這些地方購買服裝和低價物品。所以,如果我們不從中國買,或者中國的產品價格貴了,那麽孟加拉國、越南、瓜地馬拉和約旦這些國家,就給我們提供和今天一樣廉價的商品。美國很多農民害怕中國。他們說,你看現在好了吧,中國不買我們的大豆了。我認為美國種大豆的農民大可不必過慮。因為假如中國真這麽幹,比如他們從巴西買了大豆。那就意味著巴西就沒有大豆場賣給它的老客戶了。這意味著美國的大豆生產商可以把大豆賣給巴西的客戶,因為世界上只有這麽多的大豆。同樣道理,波音也是如此。很多人都在議論,說一打貿易戰中國不購買波音的飛機了。假如空客填補了來自中國的訂單,那麽,他自己原來的客戶是不會耐著性子再多等幾年的。這些客戶就會從波音買飛機。所以你會看到,波音和空客的客戶就會這樣變來變去。所以,我認為,對於中國人我們大不可必過慮。讓他們吹鬍子瞪眼睛去吧,但是,你只要看一看全球市場是怎麽運作的,你就會明白,噢,原來我們安然無恙。」

「Well,certainly.A more open economy means that products in China become cheaper.No question about that.I think the real issue here,though,is,for the U.S.,it isn』t going to be any more expensive products if we have atrade war with China because,first of all,China is not the low-cost producer of many goods.Countries like Bangladesh,Jordan,Mexico,Guatemala are.And that』s where we』re buying our clothes and low-cost items right now.So if we don』t buy them from China,or if Chinese products are more expensive,then–Bangladesh,Vietnam,Guatemala,Jordan–these countries are going to be the ones supplying us products that are as cheap as the ones we』re buying right now.Many American farmers are worried about China.They say,well,you know,China might not buy soybeans from us.I don』t think American soybean farmers have to worry too much.Because if China were to do that,they』d be buying soybeans from,let』s say,Brazil.That means Brazil wouldn』t be selling to its traditional customers,which means American soybean producers would be selling to Brazil』s customers.Because there are only so many soybeans in the world.And the same general principle applies to Boeing.Because alot of people talk about China not buying Boeing aircraft because of the trade war.Well,customers of Airbus are not going to wait years longer for deliveries because Airbus fills China orders.They』re going to be buying products from Boeing.So you』re going to see the customer mix of Boeing and Airbus change.So Idon』t think we have to worry too much about the Chinese.They can huff and puff,but when you look at the way the global markets operate,we』ll be okay.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):美中貿易戰或許不會像許多人想像的那樣嚴重影響美國或美國農民的利益。但是,由於中國對美國市場存在更大的依賴度,所以中國會感受到由此帶來的痛苦。金正恩的秘訪中國表明國際社會對朝鮮的制裁正在生效,金正恩急需修復與習近平的關係紐帶。但即將舉行的棄核談判可能只是為了掙脫制裁和獲得更多物資援助的詭計。《世事關心》將持續為您關注這一事件和美中貿易戰。感謝您的收看,我們下週再見。

So the US-China trade war might not affect the U.S.or its farmers as much as many have anticipated,but China will feel the pain because of its greater dependency on U.S.markets.Kim』s secret China trip shows that sanctions against North Korea are working and he needs to repair ties with Xi Jinping.But the upcoming talks of disarmament might just be aruse to release sanctions and get more foreign aid.Zooming In will keep an eye on these developments.Thanks for watching and see you next time.

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策劃:蕭茗

撰稿:Jess Beatty Michelle Wan蕭茗

剪輯:Julian Kuo Bonnie Yu Frank Lin

Bin Tang Jing Guo

翻譯:Rich Crankshaw John Zhang

攝影:Jimmy Song

特效:Harrison Sun

文稿整理:Bin Tang Sherry Chang Merry Jiang

反饋請寄:ssgx@ntdtv.com

主持人配飾由雲坊Yun Boutique提供

《世事關心》2018年4月

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《世事關心》播出時間

美東:週二:21:30

週三:2:30

週六:9:30

美西:週二:21:30

週六:12:30

週日:9:30

舊金山:週二:22:00

週六:12:30

週日:9:30

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