【新唐人2012年9月27日訊】國際媒體有關中國政局的觀察與報導越來越犀利，《德國之聲》一篇對北京的觀察評論文章，作者直接點出江澤民利用媒體爆料，人事安插等手段敲打習近平，讓習近平「服管、聽話」，導致習近平「鬧情緒」神隱。這使習近平和江澤民之間的矛盾公開化。分析人士認為，習近平一直保持中立立場。十八大前這個關鍵時候，習近平和江澤民「過招」，是目前中國政治裡的「最大看點。」
《德國之聲》這篇來自北京資深媒體人士的文章指出，由於習近平提出，由團派郭金龍接替劉淇擔任北京市委書記，此舉引起江澤民的不滿，特意向建立渠道的《彭博社》，提供習家財富的大量資料，以達到對習近平進行敲打，警告習要「服管和聽話」。
時事評論員劉國華表示，薄熙來和周永康曾經「密謀政變」的第一步，就是把薄熙來推到政治局常委﹔然後，利用海外和國內媒體製造對習不利的謠言，最後廢掉習近平。劉國華認為，「預謀政變的總後臺」應該是江澤民。
時事評論員劉國華：「在政治局這個派系分配當中，習近平是個中立立場。那麼，在這個時候，他不可能再保持中立。所以他必須首先得為了自己的安全著想。這就是目前中國（共）政治裡的最大看點。」
外界分析，薄熙來一案是導致習近平與江澤民徹底分裂的導火索。而習江的分裂，也加速了「江派」等「血債幫」的崩盤。
9月15號，大陸幾十座城市出現聲勢浩大的反日示威，有示威者打出「釣魚島是中國的，薄熙來是人民的」標語，公開為薄熙來鳴冤叫屈。
但是，在王立軍被判刑15年之後的短短幾天，「江派」在媒體的放風開始大轉向。
有媒體報導，中共召開的「十七屆七中全會」將對薄熙來作出「雙開」（就是：開除黨籍和開除公職）的決定，並預計薄熙來的刑期將長達20年。
時事評論員夏小強認為，原本作為江澤民、曾慶紅、周永康謀反政變計劃的主角——薄熙來，他政治生命的完結，將給「江派」帶來滅頂之災，這也是「江派」一直不放棄「挺薄、保薄」的原因。但是在江系試圖挽回敗局失敗後，薄熙來開始被江派「拋棄」。
時事評論員夏小強：「如今江派媒體痛打薄熙來，一種很大的可能，就是胡、溫、習中央，對薄熙來的處理，以及十八大的大局已定，江派已經無法扭轉。那麼，江派無奈的拋棄薄熙來的目地，那就是為了保護周永康。」
夏小強說，周永康作為江派檯面上最具權力的人物，如果再像薄熙來那樣被公開拿下，江派將立刻崩潰。不同尋常的是，自從薄王事件之後，一直沒有出國訪問的周永康，竟然在9月21號到25號去新加坡、阿富汗和土庫曼斯坦訪問。夏小強分析，由於中共高層為保持局面的穩定，才出現周永康頻頻露面的表面和諧，而讓周永康「出訪」，更在於不讓他在國內「搞事」。
另外，有媒體宣稱，「江澤民」於9月22號晚，攜夫人王冶平現身「北京國家大劇院」，與眾多前高官如曾慶紅、曾培炎等，以及在京的省部級高官，共同欣賞音樂劇。
夏小強：「可以看出，現在江派大勢已去，他們在檯面上的人物周永康，所能發揮的作用越來越小，他們只能靠搬出江澤民來造造聲勢，那麼，很可能的情況是，江派人馬在十八大的安排上完敗，面臨崩盤。」
那麼，拋棄薄熙來，搬出江澤民，能保住周永康和江派勢力嗎？夏小強表示，包括周永康在內的所有「死硬江派人員」都清楚：「十八大」後周永康一旦退下，他們都是死路一條。那麼，現在表現出的這種慌亂和拚命，也就沒有甚麼奇怪的了。
採訪編輯/常春 後製/黎安安
Xi Jinping Fight With Jiang Zemin,
Jiang Faction Has Lost
International media have made sharp observations in
reporting on the political situation in China.
Deutsche Welle has published an article:
The author directly points out that Jiang utilized the media
in releasing news to remind Xi Jin ping that he is in control.
Analysts believe that Jiang’s faction and Xi Jinping
are fighting showing that
the situation for the 18th National People’s Congress (NPC)
has been fixed, and that Jiang’s faction is falling apart.
Let’s listen to experts’ comments.
A senior media person of Deutsche Welle in Beijing
pointed out in the article that,
since Xi Jinping proposed Guo Jinlong in the League faction
to replace Liu Qi as next secretary of the municipal committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing.
This action has caused distress for Jiang, and intentionally
released Xi’s financial materials to Bloomberg.
Jiang was warning Xi Jinping to obey him.
Liu Guohua, a current affairs commentator, said
the first step in the coup plot of Bo Xilai and Zhou Yongkang,
was to support Xi as a member of the Standing Committee;
the next step was to spread rumors of Xi on overseas and
domestic media, finally getting rid of Xi,
Liu Guohua believes the premeditated coup to have been
supported by Jiang Zemin.
Liu Guohua: “In the political turmoil of the factions,
Xi remains in a neutral position at this time.
But he can no longer remain neutral so first of all, he must
think of his own safety, which is essential in China’s politics."
Outsiders have analyzed that the Bo event was the
direct cause of Xi’s complete split with the Jiang faction
it certainly accelerated Jiang’s collapse and that of
the " Bloody Hands Faction “.
On September 15, dozens of cities in mainland China,
held massive anti-Japanese demonstrations.
Some protesters held banners,
“Diaoyu Islands belong to China,
Bo Xilai belongs to the people",
People were crying for Bo publicly.
Just a few days after Wang Lijun was sentenced to
15 years in prison,
Jiang’s faction changed direction in releasing news
to the media.
Some media have reported that the 7th meeting of
the 17th People’s Congress, the CCP will remove Bo’s party membership.
The media estimated that Bo could receive
a 20 year jail sentence.
Xia Xiaoqiang, current affairs commentator said that as Bo
was a key person in the coup conspiracy with Jiang Zemin,
Zeng Qinghong and Zhou Yongkang, his political life is over.
This is a disaster for Jiang’s faction. It is also the main
reason for the Jiang faction’s insistence on supporting Bo.
However, after the failure in this support,
Jiang’s faction has abandoned Bo.
Xia Xiaoqiang: “Now Jiang’s media is against Bo,
perhaps because Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao and Xi Jinping have decided to deal with Bo.
In addition, the 18th National Congress’s personnel
structure is fixed, and Jiang’s faction cannot change it.
Jiang’s faction has abandoned Bo in the hope of securing
Zhou Yongkang’s position."
Xia Xiaoqiang says that Zhou Yongkang was the most
influential person in Jiang’s faction.
If his fate is the same as that of Bo who has been removed,
Then Jiang’s faction will immediately collapse.
Strangely, since Bo and Wang Lijun’s event,
Zhou Yongkang hasn’t made any visits abroad.
However, on Sept 21 to 25, he visited Singapore,
Afghanistan and Turkmenistan.
Xia said that is because CCP top level wants to maintain
the image of stability and sent Zhou out to show his face.
Sending him abroad is a way of preventing him
from making trouble at home."
Some media have reported that, on Sept. 22, Jiang Zemin
and his wife showed up in Beijing National Theatre.
Former high-ranking officials such as Zeng Qinghong and
Zeng Peiyan, with provincial level officials also attended the concert.
Xia Xiaoqiang: “Obviously, the Jiang faction’s era is over,
Zhou’s power is weakened.
Only pushing out Jiang will make them feel stronger now.
It may be the case that Jiang’s faction has lost completely
on the personnel arrangement for the 18th Congress."
Can abandoning Bo and pushing Jiang out secure
Zhou Yongkang and the rest of faction?
Xia Xiaoqiang said that Jiang’s faction including Zhou
knows that once Zhou is removed after the 18th Congress,
the faction will be at a dead end.
So the chaos happening now is no surprise.
