【新唐人2012年3月23日讯】中共总理温家宝3月14号在记者招待会上警告，如果中国的政改不成功，将重演文革的历史悲剧。日前，中共《人民网》刊登文章表示，温家宝挑明了中国政改的要害处，就是“党和国家领导制度的改革”。与此同时，广东首次提出了“差额票决”的选举方式，来确定8位省常委的名单，被解读为，中共为18大选举做先行。那么，在18大选举中，胡温是否会对党和国家领导体制动刀呢？我们看专家的分析。
温家宝近年来，在海内外十多次提出政改，但几乎都被称为“仰望星空”，非常渺茫。他在14号的记者招待会上，重提文革悲剧，并声称他有一口气在，也要为改革奋斗。
人民网《强国论坛》20号刊登题为《温总理期待什么样的政治改革》的文章。文章表示，温家宝屡次提出政改，都被称为“作秀”或者是“反动”。文章认为，温家宝这次提出要进行“党和国家领导制度的改革”是“一指点破穴道”，刺到了中共政改的最关键部位。
那么，即将在今年秋天召开的中共十八，如何实施温家宝所设想的“党和国家领导制度的改革”呢？
而《南方日报》报导，广东在中共中央总体政策要求下，3月19号，首次采用组织提名、全委会民主推荐、常委会“差额票决”的方法，产生的8名正厅职干部暨省委委员提名人选，正式公示。
今年年初，广东处理乌坎事件而推出的“乌坎模式”给汪洋加分不少。外界分析认为，这是在薄熙来已经被认为十八大出局后，汪洋再一次紧密站在胡温阵线上。
中国问题专家草庵居士表示，“乌坎模式”不可能在中国大量复制。
中国问题专家草庵居士：“比如现在乌坎作为不远的城镇，在乌坎事件之后也出现类似的乌坎的事件，中共却强力封杀，为什么呢？汪洋采取没有利益集团涉及的地方就会放开，但是有利益集团的就会站在利益集团的一面去。”
汪洋在广东推出的“差额选举”，是否会被胡温运用到十八大的选举上呢？历史学者李元华认为，中共18大不会实践这种选举。
历史学者李元华：“各派都是要确保自己的人选去‘入常’，以中共这种多年的形式做派来讲，不可能有什么本质的改变。”
草庵居士指出，中共内斗或者会迫使它走向民主。
中国问题专家草庵居士：“他们派别内斗之后都会有一个现实的问题，这个现实就是他们要解决今后一个政治高度的问题，谁占领这个优势，而这个优势往往是以政治改革为最高的制高点。所以，从这方面看，不管是薄熙来也好，习近平也好，江泽民也好，还是胡锦涛，他们都会打出一个政治改革的牌，以此来收拢人心，改变形象的手段。”
李元华指出，胡温就要下台了，他们要奋力一搏，不管是团派、江派都想保住自己的利益，所以中共即使改革，也是一个欺骗外界和百姓的改革。
采访/周玉林 编辑/李静 后制/萧宇
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China Tests New Voting Method?
Premier Wen Jiabao spoke about a political reform
in a press conference on March 14.
Wen said, without a political reform, China risks to see
the “historical tragedy” of the Cultural Revolution again.
Recently, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP)
mouthpiece, People’s Daily online, reported on this.
It said, the critical point of political reform Wen Jiabao
mentioned should be the reform within CCP’s leadership.
Meanwhile, in Guangdong a new voting system is used
for the first time to confirm Standing Committee’s name list.
This is seen as a test for 18th CCP Congress. Will Hu Jintao
and Wen Jiabao make reform within the CCP’s leadership?
Wen mentioned many times about political reform,
but outsiders believe he was “gazing at the stars.”
He highlighted this issue at a press conference on March 14,
and mentioned about the Cultural Revolution “tragedy.”
He stated that as long as he shall live,
he would try his best to initiate the reform.
On March 20, People’s Daily online published an article,
entitled, “What kind of reform does Premier Wen hope for?”
It said, Wen spoke many times about reform,
but this is just an exhibition or reactionary.
The article also said that what Wen mentioned about reform
within the “CCP’s leadership system” is a critical issue.
Thus the question is, how could Wen’s proposal
be implemented at the 18th National Congress?
Nanfang Daily newspaper reported about a news request
to Guangdong, from the central CCP on March 19.
According to the request, Guangdong is to use a new voting
method, where candidates are recommended and nominated.
At the beginning of this year, Guangdong’s Wukan village’
“Wukan model” won some praises.
Outsiders believe, this shows Wang Yang is
on Hu and Wen’s side after Bo Xilai was dismissed.
Expert on China issues, Caoan Jushi, said, “Wukan’s Model”
wouldn’t be followed in most places in China.
Caoan Jushi, “For example, a township near Wukan,
is also experiencing similar problems as Wukan.
However, it was severely suppressed
by the CCP. Why?
The place Wang Yang chose to use open policy in,
is a place without interests groups’ involvement.
With interests groups’ involvement,
he will stand on their side.”
Will Wang Yang’s “Guangdong Model” election style
be used at the 18th National Congress?
Historian Li Yuanhua believes it won’t happen.
Li Yuanhua, “Every faction wants their people elected
into the Standing Committee.
Looking at the CCP’s behaviour so far,
they will not allow any fundamental change.”
Caoan Jushi pointed out that the CCP’s infighting
might push it to move towards democracy.
Caoan Jushi, “CCP’s infighting will lead to a real problem.
The problem of who will take the lead.
This often makes the political reform
the strongest card.
Whether Bo Xilai, Xi Jinping, Hu Jintao or Jiang Zemin,
they will use the political reform’ card to win the public.”
Li Yuanhua pointed out, Hu and Wen will step down soon,
but they would have a final try.
Both, Hu’s and Jiang Zemin’s factions,
want to protect their own interests.
Even if the CCP starts to reform, this can only be
for the purpose of deceiving people, thinks Li Yuanhua.
