【新唐人2013年12月12日讯】朝鲜“摄政王”、最高领导人金正恩的姑父张成泽遭到整肃，外界普遍认为，张成泽被免职，可能会加剧朝鲜的不稳定局势。有消息说，中共沈阳军区第39集团军3000多名士兵，12月5号在与朝鲜接壤的长白山一带移动。那么，朝鲜政局动荡，和中共有什么关联呢？请随我们一起来看看。
曾经是朝鲜第二号领导人的张成泽，一向被认为是金正恩能顺利接班的重要支柱，因为有张成泽的背书和协助，金正恩才能获得老臣和军方的支持，坐在最高领导人的位子。
而12月8号，金正恩在平壤主持了劳动党中央政治局扩大会议，会议宣布解除张成泽的一切职务、剥夺一切头衔，并开除党籍。
此外，朝鲜电视台还极其罕见的公开播放张成泽遭到逮捕的画面。
韩国首尔《自由朝鲜广播电台》援引平壤高层的消息来源报导说，张成泽及6名亲信在5号已被处决，媒体公布的镜头是在8号之前拍摄的。但韩国国家情报院和统一部表示，不清楚媒体报导的处决事件。
李天笑：“实际上金正恩他一直是在中共的扶持下，所以说他双方的关系就是一种默契，金正恩在某些方面会给中共一种暗示，实际也得到中共的首肯。”
可是，韩国《朝鲜日报》9号报导，中共沈阳军区第39集团军3000多名士兵，四天前，在中国边境长白山一带移动。韩媒认为，沈阳军区是距离朝鲜半岛最近的大军区，可能是中共为应对朝鲜的突变事态。
那么，朝鲜的政局动荡，和中共又有什么关系呢？
时事评论员林子旭：“朝鲜出事儿，中共必然是要紧张的，现在朝鲜的统治和中共一样非常脆弱，张成泽在朝鲜经营了这么多年，人脉颇深，动张成泽连带着不知道要动多少人，这样朝鲜政权就很有可能出现大的动荡，稍有不慎金家政权就会垮掉，朝鲜因此很有可能会走向民主，就这一点是中共最不愿意看到的。”
时事评论员林子旭指出，如果中国老百姓觉得连朝鲜都抛弃共产党了，那中国为什么不能﹖这种示范效应的力量对中共来讲是非常可怕的。
美国《纽约时报》的报导也认为，自朝鲜战争以来，中共与朝鲜一直是盟友，中共最担心的事情是朝鲜倒台，因为这可能导致朝鲜半岛在与美国结盟的韩国的领导下实现统一。
《纽约时报》评论朝鲜的权力斗争，让北京紧张。“北京大学”国际关系教授、朝鲜问题专家朱锋对《纽时》表示，中国把改革朝鲜经济的希望，寄托在张成泽身上。而张成泽可能在“放权”的行动上走得太远，威胁到了金正恩的地位。
报导说，张成泽还有一项罪名是廉价变卖国家资源。而这条指控似乎是直接针对中国，因为中国是朝鲜铁矿石及其他矿产的最大买主。金正恩掌权后不久，就抱怨朝鲜出售的资源售价过低，并要求朝鲜的中朝合资企业以更高的价格出口矿物、稀土和煤炭。
而中国媒体对金正恩的抱怨进行了广泛报导，中国矿业经营者对此也感到愤怒，其中几人还放弃了他们在朝鲜的业务。
还有评论认为，随着金正恩重组朝鲜政府高层，军方可能会成为赢家，军方的力量会变得愈加强大，而强硬派也变得更加强硬。
今年2月，金正恩批准朝鲜进行了第三次核试验，公然藐视中共。
美国的朝鲜问题专家罗杰•卡瓦佐斯(Roger Cavazos)对《纽约时报》指出，中共担心的另一个问题是﹕金正恩是否会进行另一场核试验﹖
卡瓦佐斯曾任美军情报官员，他说：“中国学者担心金正恩越来越不受控制”，“与我谈过话的每个中国人都担心金正恩不久就会进行核试验。”而“朝鲜的每一次核试验都让中国处境难堪”。
报导强调，张成泽被整肃，在加剧朝鲜局势不稳定的同时，中国与日本、韩国的紧张氛围也在增加。
采访编辑/常春 后制/孙宁
The Busy Communist Neighbors: One Purges And The Other Drills
Jang Song-thaek, the regent and uncle of North Korean
leader Kim Jong-un, was recently purged.
Jang’s dismissal was believed to have likely exacerbated
instability in North Korea.
Sources said that on the 5th more than 3,000 Chinese
soldiers of the 39th Group Army in the Shenyang Military
Region were moving along the North Korean border
in the Mt. Baekdu region.
Is there any relation between these two Communist regimes’
activities? Please take a look with us.
Jang Song-thaek was North Korea’s strong right arm.
He had always been considered the mainstay
of Kim Jong-un’s smooth succession.
Because of Jang’s endorsement and assistance,
Kim Jong-un grew into his leadership role.
However, at the Pyongyang Workers’ Party politburo
assembly on December 8, which Kim Jong-un presided over,
Jang Song-thaek was stripped of all posts, titles
and party membership.
North Korean television also aired rare images
of Jang Song-thaek’s public arrest.
Free North Korea Radio said that Jang and his six aides
had actually been executed on December 5, four days
before the reported special meeting of the Political Bureau,
according to official Pyongyang sources.
But South Korea’s National Intelligence Service and the
Unification Ministry did not confirm Jang’s execution.
Li Tianxiao, commentator: “Kim Jong-un has in fact
been supported by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
There is a tacit understanding between the two sides.
Kim Jong-un will give a hint to the CCP in some way
and he has the CCP’s endorsement."
However, on the 9th South Korea’s media, Chosun Ilbo,
reported that the 39th Group Army in the Shenyang Military
Region has mobilized more than 3,000 PLA soldiers along
the North Korean border in the Mt. Baekdu region
on the 5th.
The Korean media believed that, as the Shenyang Military
Region is the closest to the North Korean border,
it is tasked with preparing for a crisis situation
on the geographically proximal Korean Peninsula.
So, what does the turmoil in North Korea have to do
with the CCP?
Lin Zixu, commentator: “Any incident in North Korea
will stir the CCP.
Both Communist regimes are very fragile.
Jang Song-thaek had a deep and wide connection to NK.
His downfall is surely affecting many others.
A big upheaval is therefore likely to occur.
The slightest mistake will topple Kim’s regime,
and NK might turn towards democracy.
That’s what the CCP fears the most."
Commentator Lin Zixu points out that consequently,
the Chinese will realize abandoning the CCP is also doable.
This possible domino effect of NK turning into a democracy
frightens the CCP.
The New York Times also reported that “an overriding fear
of China’s is the collapse of the government in North Korea,
an ally dating back to the Korean War, which could lead
to the reunification of the Korean Peninsula under
a government in South Korea allied with the United States.”
New York Times quoted Zhu Feng, professor of international
relations at Peking University, and a North Korean specialist,
who said that Jang is the man China counted on to move
North Korea’s economy, and “It’s possible Jang went too far
in decentralizing and that threatened Kim Jong-un’s position.”
“Among the crimes that Mr. Jang was said to have committed
was selling resources cheaply, an accusation that appears
to have been aimed directly at China, the biggest buyer
of North Korea’s iron ore and minerals,” reported
the New York Times article.
The article also revealed that, shortly after taking power,
Mr. Kim disapproved of the fact “that North Korea’s
resources, one of its few sources of outside income,
were being sold too cheaply.”
“He demanded higher prices for minerals, rare earths
and coal, exported by the growing number of joint ventures
between China and North Korea,” said the New York Times.
The New York Times article said, “Mr. Kim’s complaints
were widely reported in China and angered
bargain-conscious Chinese mine operators, several
of whom abandoned their North Korean operations.”
The report also quoted expert Cai Jian as saying that as Kim
“rearranges the top echelon of the government, it is possible
that the military will emerge the winner.”
In all likelihood, “the military forces will become stronger”
and the “hard-liners will become more hard-line.”
Against the CCP’s wishes, Kim carried out the country’s
third nuclear test in February, said the Times.
According to the NY Times expert Roger Cavazos,
“another concern for China is the question of whether
Mr. Kim will conduct a new nuclear test.”
“Every Chinese I have spoken with were worried that
Kim Jong-un would test soon,” Mr. Cavazos, a former
United States Army intelligence officer,
told the New York Times.
Mr. Cavazos in his New York Times interview, said that
Chinese academics were concerned that
Mr. Kim was getting “more and more out of control.”
He added, “Every nuclear test by North Korea puts China
in a bad position.”
The report stressed that Mr. Jang’s removal raises
the possibility of further instability in North Korea
at a time when China is already confronting increased
tensions with two of its other North Asian neighbors,
Japan and South Korea.
