【新唐人2013年04月22日訊】四川雅安市廬山縣發生的7級地震，據估計，造成龍門鄉等多個地區房屋99%損毀﹔而寶興縣與外界徹底失去聯繫，救援工作難以展開。不少專家指出，這次雅安地震應該是2008年汶川8級地震的餘震，美國甚至早在5年前就已經預測「雅安地震」的發生，但大陸官方否認了這一觀點。一時間，有關「餘震」和「預測」的話題，成為了網路討論的焦點。
雅安地震後，一場關於這次地震是否是汶川地震餘震的爭論，在網上激烈展開。中國地震局、四川省地震局、雅安市地震局在接受媒體採訪時都表示，雅安地震為獨立地震，不是餘震。
雅安市地震局：「就專家來說，這個已經不屬於5.12汶川地震的餘震了。」
但日本、美國以及中國的多位地質學家、和地震專家則一致認為，雅安地震應該屬於5.12汶川地震的餘震，主要原因是兩次地震都處在同一地震帶。
四川地礦局區域地質調查隊總工程師範曉：「這次地震我個人認為﹕它跟四川地震還是有一定關係的，它應該是屬於汶川地震以後，整個龍門山斷裂帶應力的一個調整，或者你說它是汶川地震的一個餘震也可以。」
據了解，這類的爭論，5年前汶川地震後也曾發生。
當時爭論的話題是﹕「四川地區將來能否發生餘震﹖」，當時美國專家曾發表論文說﹕「雅安將會是高危區」。
當時很多專家反駁說﹕「汶川地震已經把幾千年積纍的應力都釋放完了，百年內不會發生強大地震。」
雅安政府聲稱﹕「從掌握的資料及宏觀異常看，雅安市沒有發生大地震的可能性。」
但仍有人站出來支持美國專家的預測。
中科院院士，地球物理學家陳運泰表示，五年前就提過，汶川地震不會像當時很多人說的那樣朝東北擴散，而是將來在西南處會發生七級左右地震。
對此，四川地礦局區域地質調查隊總工程師範曉，當時也發表了同樣觀點。
四川地礦局區域地質調查隊總工程師範曉：「這次地震的話，蘆山地震它也是處於龍門山斷裂帶上，只不過處在南段，那麼汶川地震它主要是中段和北段當時發生破裂，在汶川地震以後，實際上龍門山南段的這個區域應該是相對比較危險的，因為它應力的積纍沒有得到充分的釋放。」
陳運泰還透露，他在汶川地震後提交給當局的內部參考中，特別提到汶川西南100公里左右的寶興一帶，可能發生七級左右的強餘震。但顯然沒有得到當局的回應和重視。
為甚麼中共要堅決否認「雅安地震是汶川地震的餘震」呢﹖
有網友認為，如果承認了，就等於承認了這次地震是可以預測出來的，既然可以成功預測，為何中共當局知情不報？更何況，這次雅安地震已經引發了群眾對當局地震預警遲鈍的不滿。
四川雅安市民楊先生：「這個還是做得比較差嘛，感覺。地震前幾乎沒有預警，地震後防空警報也沒有拉響。 在地震前幾天，今天聽他們說，可能還是有感覺。 」
到底這次雅安地震有沒有提前預測出來﹖百姓很難得出正確結論。但是，地震前發生的幾件「古怪事」，卻讓大家見識到了當局的「未卜先知」﹗
先是在地震發生的前兩天，「四川消防總隊」舉行了7級以上地震的跨區救援演練，更巧的是，消防員身上穿著印有「雅安消防」的四個大字﹔而20號地震當天，成都正好組織了全國骨科專家「抗震救災學術交流會」﹔更巧的是，業餘無線電愛好團體，在地震當天搞起了應急演練，剛集合完畢就地震了……。
這一切真的都是巧合嗎？
採訪/林莉 編輯/張天宇 後製/周天
The Foreseeing of the Ya’an Earthquake by the Authorities
A 7-magnitude earthquake struck in Lushan county
of Ya’an, Sichuan province.
It is estimated 99% houses were destroyed in several areas.
Baoxing county has been completely cut off from the
outside world, the rescue party has failed to reach there.
Experts said that the Ya’an earthquake was an aftershock of
the 8-magnitude quake that occurred in Wenchuan in 2008.
Five years ago, U.S. experts
warned of the Ya’an earthquake.
Yet, the Chinese Communist Party(CCP) authorities
neglected the advice.
In China, an online heated debate on “aftershock” and
“earthquake prediction” has been sparked,
An online debate on whether Ya’an earthquake was
an aftershock of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake has become heated in China.
Media have reported that the earthquake administration of
Sichuan and Ya’an have all ignored the aftershock advice.
They have said that the Ya’an earthquake
was unrelated to any previous seismic catastrophe.
Ya’an Earthquake Bureau: “Experts don’t think
it was an aftershock of the Wenchuan earthquake.”
However, a number of geologists and seismic experts
in Japan, the U.S. and China hold opposing views.
They view the Ya’an earthquake as a direct aftershock,
following two earthquakes that had previously taken place in the same seismic zone.
Fan Xiao(Chief Engineer): “Personally I think it bore
some relation to the Wenchuan quake.
It’s actually a stress adjustment along
the Mountain Longmen fault zone.
Or you may equally call it an aftershock of
the Wenchuan quake.”
Reportedly, there were similar debates five years ago
after the Wenchuan earthquake.
At the time, the debate focused on the question:
“Will aftershocks happen in Sichuan in the future?”
In the same period, U.S. experts published a paper,
asserting that “Ya’an will be a high-risk area”.
Whilst China’s many experts alleged that
the Wenchuan quake had released the stresses
that had accumulated over thousands of years.
They said that no large earthquakes would occur
in the next 100 years.
CCP Ya’an authorities openly claimed that
“Based on the available information, there is no
likelihood that Ya’an will see big quakes in the future.”
Yet, more people have stood up
to support U.S. experts’ forecast.
According to geophysicist Chen Yuntai, a view was held
five years ago that a 7-magnitude quake would hit the southwest area of Wenchuan.
Fan Xiao Chief Engineer, Sichuan Bureau of
Geology & Minerals, shares this view.
Fan Xiao: “The earthquake that hit Lushan County fell
within the Mountain Longmen fault zone, on its southern section.
Whilst the Wenchuan quake was located on
the middle and northern sections.
After the Wenchuan quake, the fault zone’s
southern section was actually of relatively high risk.
This is because its accumulated stresses
had not been fully released."
Chen Yuntai revealed that after the Wenchuan quake,
he forecasted there would be possible aftershocks nearby.
In a written advice to the CCP authorities,
Chen predicted that around Baoxing County,
100 km away to the southwest of Wenchuan,
there might occur aftershocks of magnitude 7.
It seems that his information has been ignored.
Why have the CCP authorities denied that
the Ya’an earthquake is an aftershock of the Wenchuan quake?
Some netizens commented that if the regime would admit it,
it would prove that the Ya’na earthquake had been predicted.
Then the authorities wouldn’t be able to explain
why they hadn’t informed the pubic beforehand.
in fact, the latest quake has aroused the masses’ discontent
over the hopeless official pre-warning system.
(Ya’an citizen) Mr. Yang: “On this,
their work was terrible.
There was almost no pre-warning,
nor did air-raid sirens sound after the quake.
However, I’ve heard that the authority received
alerts of the earthquake before it happens.”
For the general public, it is hard to know whether
the Ya’an earthquake had been predicted or not.
Yet, several queer things before the quake showed that
the CCP authorities’ “had foreseen what was coming“.
Two days before the quake, Sichuan Fire Brigade held
a rescue drill against earthquakes of magnitude 7 and above.
Coincidently, words on the firefighters’
uniforms were, “Ya’an Fire Rescue”.
On April 20, the day when the quake hit Ya’an,
an academic exchange conference of national
bone specialists was held in Chengdu, Sichuan.
And besides, amateur radio hobby groups staged
a drill on earthquake emergencies.
As soon as the team finished gathering,
the earthquake arrived.
Were all these really just coincidences?