【新唐人2012年1月4日讯】自朝鲜独裁者金正日葬礼结束以来，平壤已经多次发表措辞强烈的谴责声明，表示“永远不会同韩国李明博政府交往”，并威胁报复韩国“限制民间吊唁金正日”。李明博指出，朝鲜半岛局势正在经历重要的转折点，但在随之而来的改变与不确定中也将蕴含着新的机遇。
韩国总统李明博1月2号发表新年电视演说表示，目前的最大目标是实现朝鲜半岛的和平与稳定，韩国仍为朝鲜敞开着“机会之窗”。
李明博说，希望今年能找到解决朝核问题的突破口，只要朝鲜中断所有核活动，六方会谈就有希望重新启动。他同时警告，如果朝鲜发起挑衅，韩国将会采取强硬的应对措施。
朝鲜媒体则在新年社论中，突出了金正日幼子金正恩的唯一领导体制，表示全军誓死捍卫金正恩，并再度要求驻韩美军撤离，同时强调了“人民的温饱问题”。
朝鲜去年新年社论中出现了“对话与合作”等柔和基调，而今年却只有“韩方加强同族对决”等谴责内容，并再次猛烈抨击韩方阻碍同胞吊唁。平壤声明，只要李明博存在，南北关系就没有任何希望。
“韩国东国大学”教授高有焕认为，朝鲜避免对美国造成不必要的刺激，表明了重启朝美对话和六方会谈的缓和姿态，同时显示了意图造成韩国内部矛盾的策略。
英国《金融时报》指出，今年韩国和美国的大选可能重新评估对朝鲜的政策，包括恢复对朝鲜粮食援助。韩国统一研究院高级研究员朴泂重﹙Pǔ jiǒng zhòng﹚表示：“朝鲜试图在韩国下届政府产生之前孤立李明博政府。”
新年前夕，朝鲜公布金正恩出任军队最高司令官，正式确认他掌控朝鲜120万人的军队。中共领导人胡锦涛发去了贺电。
元旦当天，金正恩首次视察坦克部队，要求做好随时战斗准备，并特别选择朝鲜战争爆发时最先攻入汉城的第105坦克师，作为视察对像。韩国《朝鲜日报》分析，金正恩此行具有警告韩国的意味，同时显示金正恩接班体制稳定。
韩国《中央日报》引述“北京大学”朝鲜半岛研究中心副主任金景一教授的话表示，如果朝鲜在金正日去世后发生混乱，受到最大损害的是韩国，因此朝鲜周围的国家都不希望朝鲜发生混乱。
《路透社》日前报导，美国国会前高级专家尼克什说，朝鲜一旦生产出足够的浓缩铀，将只需一到两年，就能在中程导弹上装载小型核弹头。
美国希望确认：金正日去世前，朝美间协议就中断铀浓缩换取食品援助，是否仍有效。为此，负责亚太事务的美国助理国务卿坎贝尔3号起访问中国、韩国和日本。
“上海复旦大学”教授韩国朝鲜研究中心副主任蔡建教授表示，金正恩刚接班，而且在朝韩目前的僵局下，朝核问题难有大的突破。
蔡建：“金正恩的权力它在短期里面，很难改变他父亲的政策。所以在这个核问题上面，我想他一下子也很难作出过多的调整。至于六方会谈能否顺利召开，可能朝鲜在弃核问题上面，肯定也会很难作出什么巨大的一种态度上的改变。”
日本《读卖新闻》报导说，北京会提前邀请金正恩访问中国，北京外交消息人士表示，中国有可能在1月份对朝鲜进行粮食援助。有分析说，这是为了彰显他作为朝鲜监护国的鼎力支持。
围绕朝鲜半岛局势的外交战正在激烈进行。《朝鲜日报》指出，金正日去世留下的空白使东北亚局势变得扑朔迷离，朝鲜变数比以往任何时候大。
新唐人记者李元翰、王明宇报导。
Uncertainty as Korean Peninsula Relationship Drops to Lowest Level
As North Korea’s ruler Kim Jong-il’s funeral ends,
Pyongyang sends a strong New Year message to South Korea.
North Korea will “never [have] contact with South Korea,
Lee Myung-bak’s government”.
They also threatened South Korea with revenge for
“restrictions on private condolences to Kim Jong-il”.
South Korean Leader Lee Myung-bak stated that the Korean
Peninsula’s situation has crossed a turning point.
He also stated that it presents a new opportunity.
Lee Myung-bak gave a speech on Jan.2 saying his main goal
is maintaining peace and stability across the Korea Peninsula.
South Korea still opens the window widely towards
North Korea.
Lee Myung-bak said he hoped this year he can breakthrough
the North Korean nuclear issue.
As long as they stop all nuclear activity, there will be a hope
of restarting six-party talks.
Lee Myung-bak warned that if North Korea makes a
challenge, South Korea will react with a strong response.
North Korea state media sent a message, reinforcing
leadership of only Kim Jong-un.
It also stated that the army vows to defend Kim Jong-un
“to the death”.
The message also stated US troops should be removed
from South Korea, emphasising the issue of food shortages.
The New Year message in 2011 had a soft tone of “dialogue
and cooperation”, but this year it had the opposite tone.
It blamed South Korea for fighting with them and preventing
it’s people mourning Kim Jong-il.
Pyongyang declared that as long as Lee Myung-bak leads the
country, there is no hope between the two countries.
South Korea Professor Gao Youhuan believes that North
Korea is avoiding offending the US.
It indicates they want to restart the dialogue and six-party
talks, but are trying to create conflict inside South Korea.
British Financial Times highlights that general election’s in
South Korea and the US will re-evaluate North Korean policy.
This includes supplementation of food.
Pu Jiongzhong, Senior fellow of Korea Institute for National
Unification spoke on the issue:
“North Korea is trying to isolate Lee Myung-bak before
their next government.”
Before the New Year, Kim Jong-un was named supreme
commander of North Korea military.
This officially confirmed he was in charge of 1.2 million
troops. CCP leader Hu Jintao sent a congratulatory message.
On New Year’s day, Kim Jong-un made his first inspection
of tanks troops, requiring that they are prepared for battle.
He particular visited the 105 Division, responsible for taking
Seoul during the Korean War.
Chosun Daily analysed that Kim Jong-un’s visit shows a
warning message to South Korea.
It also shows the stability of the take-over process.
South Korea’s Central Daily News quoted Korean Peninsula
expert, Professor Ren Jinjing
If North Korea has chaos after Kim Jong-il’s death,
South Korea will also suffer heavily.
As neighbouring countries, they don’t want to see this happen.
Reuters reported on comments from Larry Niksch, former
senior expert for the U.S. Congressional Research Service.
When North Korea produces enriched Uranium, it could only
take one to two years before it had working nuclear missiles.
The US wanted to confirm before Kim Jong-il’s death that
the agreement between US and North Korea is still valid.
This agreement see’s North Korea halt Uranium enrichment
in exchange for food.
On Jan.3, Kurt Campbell, US Assistant Secretary for East
Asia and Pacific, is visiting China, South Korea and Japan.
Professor Cai Jian, Shanghai Fudan University commented
on Kim Jong-un take-over of power.
It is hard to make breakthroughs in North Korea’s problems.
Cai Jian: “It is difficult for Kim Jong-un to change his
father’s policy in a short time.
On the nuclear issue, it is hard for him to make too many
adjustments.
Whether six-party talks can run smoothly, maybe on
North Korea’s nuclear issue, it is hard to change.”
Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper reported that the CCP
invited Kim Jong-un to visit China.
Beijing diplomatic sources say China may supply food to
North Korea from January.
Analysts said that this highlights the CCP’s full support
of North Korea.
The diplomatic battle surrounding the Korean Peninsula
continues.
Chosun Daily points out that Kim Jong-un’s death has made
Northeast Asia’s situation complicated.
The North Korean situation is changing more than ever
before.
NTD reporters Li Yuanhan and Wang Mingyu
