【新唐人2011年2月21日讯】中共当局17号发布报告说，2010年境外流入的资金数量为355亿美元。不过，资料显示，今年一季度热钱流入的规模已超过去年全年。财经专家指出，中共一方面为吸引外资投资中国，制造热钱进入中国的吸引力；但一方面热钱带来的通货膨胀却无力抑制，最终受害最深的只是中国底层的百姓。
根据外汇管理局17号发布的《2010年中国跨境资金流动监测报告》，2010年国际热钱净流入中国的规模为355亿美元，比过去10年年平均水平高出42%。
可是，外汇管理局的数据备受质疑。去年中，《上海证券报》估计，2010年第一季热钱合计超过700亿美元，已经是外汇管理局公布的2010年全年热钱数目的一倍。
与此同时，中国唯一获得官方委托“调查地下钱庄活动”的学者、广东省社会科学综合开发研究中心主任黎友焕说：“去年三月开始，热钱加速流入中国。到了年底，黎友焕通过对全国100个地下钱庄的监测发现，单单11月前半个月，短短15天内，通过地下钱庄流入国内的热钱，已经比10月整个月暴增30%。根据估计，11月整个月的热钱可能比10月激增100%。”
有民间机构的分析师指出，官方的热钱数据严重被低估。
“国泰君安宏观”分析师吕春杰透露，公司的统计是：去年流入中国大陆的热钱应该远不止官方公布的355亿美元，而是高达近2000亿美元。
上海财经大学金融学教授丁剑平指出，海外热钱流入中国并不值得大惊小怪，可怕的是有朝一日获利抽逃。
210期《新纪元》杂志文章《放空中国对冲基金在行动》报导，许多对冲基金认为，中国这个全球最大的泡沫经济正在奔向爆破并开始行动。
文章表示，大约半年前，基金大鳄亨德里（Hugh Hendry）与美国著名空头大师查诺斯（James S. Chanos）就对中国的经济前景表示忧虑，打赌中国经济面临惊人衰退。
现今，越来越多的对冲基金，包括国际货币基金会（IMF）、梅菲尔（Mayfair）对冲基金、隆巴德街研究所（Lombard Street Research）、科里连顾问公司（Corriente Advisors）等，都认为中国经济的泡沬已临界崩溃边缘，有些已经做出行动放空中国。
新唐人《独立评论》节目去年年末评论指出，中共虽然严格管制外币汇兑，但是国际热钱还是通过各种渠道如地下钱庄、假贸易、在国内设立公司等渠道流入中国。
草庵居士：“热钱有百分之60到65进入商品市场，商品市场就是指股市和房地产，而有百分之30是真正在股市里头，其他的都是在商品当中，所以中国商品暴涨是很正常的，通货膨胀是很正常的。”
主持人伍凡指出，热钱涌入中国，大陆政府极为头痛。担心股市暴跌，需要热钱来支撑中国股市；人民币升值吸引“热钱”却加速通胀；“加息”解决不了通胀问题，反而提高了“热钱”在国内存款的收益率。
伍凡：“最受损害的—-中国老百姓，为什么？物价上涨、房价上涨，‘糖太宗、豆你玩’这些东西上涨以后降不下来，老百姓唯一的工资不涨，老百姓承担所有的热钱进来造成的通货膨胀，所有的结果。”
另一名主持人草庵居士也表示，中共总是自打耳光，一方面制造热钱进入中国的机会和吸引力，而又在另一方面说：热钱影响社会和谐稳定。
新唐人记者吴惟、李璐综合报导。
Hot Money is Not Scary but Why the CCP Underestimates it?
A report released on Feb. 17 by the CCP indicated,
foreign capital inflow in 2010 was US$35.5 billion.
Statistics show, however, hot money in the 1st quarter
this year is already greater than the total in 2010.
Financial experts say, on one hand, the CCP regime
endeavored to attract foreign hot money to China, but
on the other hand, it is unable to suppress the inflation
caused by the hot money.
Eventually, the victims will be ordinary Chinese folks.
According to a 2010 report of capital flows in China
by the State Admin. of Foreign Exchange (SAFE),
the net international hot money to China in 2010
was US$35.5 billion
It was 42% higher than the average of past 10 years.
The data from SAFE were widely questioned.
In mid 2010, Shanghai Securities News estimated that
the hot money in the 1st quarter already surpassed
US$70 billion, doubling the total in 2010 by SAFE.
Li Youhuan, the only scholar officially entrusted
to investigate underground banking activities in China,
said that from March 2010, hot money entering China
more quickly. By monitoring 100 underground banks,
he found in the 1st half of Nov., hot money coming to
China through underground banks increased 30%
over Oct. It was estimated that hot money in Nov. 2010
could have been 100% more than that in Oct.
Analysts from private sectors believe that the official
hot money figure is seriously underestimated.
Lu Chunjie, an analyst from Guotai Junan Macro Co.
said, last year’s hot money entering China exceeded
the official figure of US$35.5 billion.
It was as high as US$200 billion.
Ding Jianping, prof. at Shanghai Univ. of Finance,
Said, overseas money inflow is not scary.
The really scary part is when the money comes
out of China after it has made profits.
A report “Venting China Hedge Fund in Action” on
issue No. 210 of the New Epoch Weekly said, many
hedge funds believe that China, the biggest global
bubble economy, is heading for explosion now.
The article said, about 6 months ago, funds masters
Hugh Hendry and James S Chanos expressed their
worries about the outlook of Chinese economy and
bet that China was facing a stern recession.
Today, more and more hedge funds, including IMF,
Mayfair Hedge Fund, Lombard Street Research, and
Corriente Advisors, believe that Chinese economy is
at the verge of collapse and some of them have already
taken actions to short sell their stocks in China.
NTD TV’s Independent Commentary program said
at the end of 2010, despite the strict control of foreign
exchanges in China, international hot money still
entered china via underground banks, fake trading,
and setting up companies in China.
Caoyan Jushi, a famous economist: 60% to 65% of
the hot money entered commodity and real estate
markets. Only 30% is in stock market. All the rest
are in goods market. So, the price of the goods
in China is bound to soar. So is inflation.
Program host Wu Fan said, active inflow of hot money
into China is a big headache to Chinese government.
They worry about stock market crush, so they need
hot money to support China’s stock market.
However, appreciation of RMB attracts hot money
but also escalates inflation at the same time.
Interest hike cannot solve the inflation problem.
Instead, it increased the deposit return for the hot money.
Wu Fan: Ordinary people in China are hit the most.
Why? Once the prices of goods and housing soar,
it is difficult for them to come down.
With no increase on salary, ordinary people have to
bear the consequences of inflation caused by hot money.
Caoyan Jushi also said, the CCP is always slapping
its own face. On one hand, it creates opportunities
to attract hot money into China, while on the other
hand, it says hot money undermines social stability.
NTD reporters Wu Wei and Li Lu
