CCP’Regime Yet to Crash: When Will"China Spring"Come?
Why has the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) regime
not collapsed yet, many people keep asking themselves.
A lot of China affairs observers repeatedly talked about
China’s severe social problems, intense political situation, growing rich-poor gap, and ubiquitous corruption.
All these differ little from the circumstances
in the Arabian regimes when they were overturned.
Yet, “China Spring"has not arrived yet,
despite being longed for and awaited by many.
When will the “China Spring” break out?
Mainland scholars share their opinions on the topic.
Zhao Shilin, professor at China’s Minzu University,
remarked, China has indeed some serious problems.
Like the wealth inequality, rampant privilege,
and other social, economic, and political issues.
However, the Chinese people have not tried to overturn
the CCP regime through revolution.
This has a lot to do with the economic development
in the past 30 years, during which China has become the second largest economy in the world.
Zhao Shilin: “China is still a huge country
with extremely imbalanced development.
It is true that there are some severe problems
in distributing the fruits of economic development.
But after all the Chinese people have benefited
a lot from the economic reform."
Yao Jianfu, former researcher at the CCP central rural policy
research office, also agrees that the economic factor plays a key role in this issue.
Yao Jianfu: “Even with an imbalanced distribution,
the overall GDP level is much higher,
the incomes of the poorest people have still improved
compared to that of 10 or 30 years ago.
Therefore the pauperization is only a relative one,
not an absolute one.
In such a case the ordinary people can still tolerate,
by telling themselves that the life is better than before."
Zhao Shilin added, China has not seen any revolution yet,
also due to Chinese having a tradition of bearing hardships.
In addition, the CCP has a very strict system
of controlling the nation.
Zhao Shilin: “You know that the Chinese can bear hardships,
and they are capable of enduring a lot.
As long as they have something to eat
they won’t easily revolt.
Moreover, the CCP is famous for its “ruling" capability.
It has an unprecedented powerful bureaucracy,
and it has the determination to maintain the “stability"
of its regime at any cost."
Yao Jianfu further remarked that Chinese people
generally have a strong sentiment of patriotism,
which is another reason
why the Arab Spring has not taken place in China.
Yao Jianfu: “In the late hundreds years, China has been
oppressed by powers, like Japan and Eight-Nation Alliance.
Therefore the Chinese people have
a strong national pride’sentiment.
They are willing to tolerate to some extent,
provided that the country becomes stronger as a whole.
Currently, Xi Jinping throws out the slogan of national
rejuvenation to bid for more support by the people."
Steve Hess, an assistant professor at University
of Bridgeport, wrote an article for the magazine Diplomat.
He remarked that most China’s mass protests are restricted
in a local area, and are directed against local issues such as corruption or expropriation by local officials.
Except the striking “June 4 Incident"in 1989, very few
protesters attempted to extend activities nationwide,
or were inclined to direct them
against the central government.
Zhao Shilin: “Of course there are many caring about China’s
issues as a whole, such as the political reform.
For example, the group of intellectuals
cares more about this.
They frequently put forward opinions about China’s issues
as a whole or overall policies, either on the Internet or using other means."
Yao Jianfu believes that if the economy declines sharply
and the social conflicts become more intense, it is possible to see larger-scale turbulence in China.
Yao Jianfu: “An economic downturn will lead
to a massive unemployment.
If most of the 200 million migrant workers lose their jobs,
40 million of them will become farmers without a land,
because they have no land to work on,
even if they go back home in the countryside.
In such a case China may slide into anarchy, which can then
lead to huge conflicts in politics and the Chinese society.
Therefore now the CCP believes in
“Development is of overriding importance."
The regime’s legitimacy lies
in the rapid economic development and the GDP."
The Economist wrote on Mar 16,
“There is a vogue in Chinese intellectual circles
for reading Alexis de Tocqueville’s 1856 book on the
French Revolution, ‘The Old Regime and the Revolution’.
The argument that most resonates in China is that old
regimes fall to revolutions not when they resist change,
but when they attempt reform
yet dash the raised expectations they have evoked.
If de Tocqueville was right, Mr Xi faces an impossible
dilemma: to survive, the party needs to reform; but reform itself may be the biggest danger."