【新唐人2011年12月21日訊】朝鮮獨裁者金正日病逝後，擁有核武器的朝鮮權力過渡，引起外界各種猜測。與此同時，朝鮮半島有關各方保持謹慎克制，避免刺激朝鮮導致誤判、引發東北亞陷入嚴重危機。美國、韓國、日本政府一致認為，朝鮮半島的和平與穩定不能受到金正日去世的影響。
據《韓聯社》報導，12月19號在金正日去世的消息發佈3個半小時前，朝鮮試射了2枚短程導彈。韓國政府相關負責人表示，朝鮮試射導彈與金正日去世無關。顯示了韓國在加強警戒的同時謹慎的姿態。
由於去年「天安艦襲擊」和「延坪島炮擊」事件，韓國政府19號在金正日哀悼問題上存在不同意見。但是，韓國政府20號作出了哀悼的表示，並期待朝鮮盡早恢復穩定。
美國國務卿希拉里19號在與日本外相會談中說，平壤平穩、和平的政權交接符合美日兩國的共同利益。中俄官方也表達了相似的立場。
上海復旦大學韓國朝鮮研究中心副主任蔡建教授表示，中、韓、美、日、俄的表態，緩和了朝鮮半島目前的緊張局勢。
蔡建：「中、韓、美、日這個表態我覺得很重要，就是大家都不希望在這種情況之下出現混亂，維持這個地區的穩定是符合大家的利益的。因為實際上在過去一、二十年裡面，危機高潮階段，東北亞地區、朝鮮半島地區一直是出現很危險的局勢，幾次都似乎走到要打仗的地步。」
《紐約時報》說，美國與韓國政府官員擔憂，朝鮮內部的權力鬥爭可能導致朝鮮對外進行挑釁行為。
韓國《朝鮮日報》則援引北京朝鮮問題專家的意見認為，在過去2、3年內，能夠威脅到金正恩體制的七、八十歲元老大多被趕出核心，因此金正恩體制不會受到太大的影響。
中方在致朝鮮的弔唁電文中提及：朝鮮「在金正恩的領導下」。而俄羅斯總統梅德韋傑夫直接將電文發給了金正恩。《韓聯社》指出，中、俄事實上已經認可金正恩是朝鮮的最高領導人。
《朝鮮日報》說，韓國政府和大多數專家認為，金正日去世後，朝鮮體製出現劇烈動盪的可能性微乎其微。韓國政府核心人士說，只要中國繼續提供支持，朝鮮就不會發生崩潰、內戰等巨變。
美國智庫加圖研究所資深研究員班多(Doug Bandow)分析，金正日去世後，雖然有人希望朝鮮發生類似「阿拉伯之春」的民主化革命，但出現「朝鮮之春」的可能性不大。
俄羅斯自由民主黨領袖日裡諾夫斯基也指出，只要中國和俄羅斯這兩個朝鮮的主要支持者沒有真正的民主，就不應指望朝鮮民主化。他說，只有中共垮臺，俄羅斯更加民主化，朝鮮才會發生改變。
不過，北京大學國際戰略研究中心副主任朱鋒教授認為，金正日去世，這對東北亞來說是一次歷史性良機。金正恩沒有掌握像金正日一樣的強權，很難像父親一樣繼續閉門鎖國。
旅美著名學者謝選駿也表示，金正日之死為朝鮮提供了一個開放契機。
謝選駿：「北朝鮮發生社會變革的可能性，幾乎可以肯定是會發生的，問題就是說它甚麼時候發生，以及它以甚麼形式發生。既使中國和俄國雖然在背後還支持著北朝鮮，但是都比北朝鮮開放，所以，北朝鮮走向開放這個前景，比在金正日的領導下應該來的更好一點。」
《朝鮮日報》則援引中國人民大學教授時殷弘的話警告，「後金正日時代」，朝鮮將面臨重大挑戰。雖然韓國主導朝鮮半島統一的可能性不斷增大，但如果所採取的措施不當，也可能會引發軍事衝突危機。
新唐人記者常春、李元翰、孫寧採訪報導。
Experts Forecast the Trend of The Korean Peninsula on Post-Jong-il era
After Dictator Kim Jong Il’s death, various speculations arose
over the transition of power in North Korea.
All concerned parties remain cautious not to upset
North Korea and trigger a serious crisis in Northeast Asia.
Governments of U.S., South Korea and Japan say
Kim Jong Il』s death must not affect peace and stability in the Korean Peninsula.
Yonhap News reported that North Korea test-fired
2 short-range missiles, 3.5 hours before Kim Jong Il’s death.
A South Korean official says North Korea’s
missile tests had nothing to do with Kim’s death.
The statement shows South Korea’s cautious stance while
strengthening its vigilance.
South Korea offered its official condolences on December 20,
expressing hope for North Korea to restore stability soon.
But after the ROKS Cheonan sinking and the Yin Ping Island
shelling in 2010, South Koreans view Kim’s death differently.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton talked with
the Japanese Foreign Minister on December 19.
Clinton says a smooth, peaceful power transition of
the Pyongyang regime will benefit both the U.S. and Japan.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) regime and
Russian officials expressed similar views.
Research center deputy director at Shanghai-based
Fudan University, Professor Cai Jian, says
the stances shown by China, South Korea, U.S., Japan
and Russia have eased tension on the Korean Peninsula.
[Cai Jian]: “I think the positions taken by China, South Korea,
the U.S. and Japan are very important. That is to say,
no party wants to see chaos under present circumstances.
Maintaining the region’s stability is in everyone’s interest.
Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula have been in crisis
for the last few decades, each time seemingly initiating war.”
The New York Times says, U.S. and South Korean
government officials worry that
North Korea’s internal power struggles could lead to
externally provocative acts.
South Korean media, The Chosun Ilbo, quoted Beijing-based
experts on North Korea, saying that in the past few years,
most of the elder grandees who may threaten Kim Jong-un’s
power have been forced out of the power core.
Kim Jong-un’s authority allegedly will not be impacted much.
The CCP regime sent condolence messages, adding that
North Korea is “under Kim Jong-un’s leadership”.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev sent his condolences
directly to Kim Jong-un.
Yonhap News points out, China and Russia have in fact
recognized Kim Jong-un as North Korea’s top leader.
Chosun Ilbo says, the South Korean government and experts
deem little possibility for severe unrest following Kim’s death.
Core members of the South Korean government say,
the North Korean regime will not confront collapse, civil war
or other radical changes, while China continues its support.
Senior researcher at U.S. think tank 『The Cato Institute』,
Doug Bandow, says with Kim Jong Il’s death,
some may hope for an “Arab Spring" democratic revolution
in North Korea, yet there is little chance of this occurring.
Russia’s Liberal Democrat leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky says,
while the two main supporters of the North Korean regime,
China and Russia have no real democracy,
North Korea’s democratization should not be expected.
Vladimir says, only if the CCP collapses, and if Russia
becomes more democratic, will North Korea really change.
Deputy director at Peking University’s International Strategic
Studies Center, Professor Zhu Feng,
says Kim’s death brings Northeast Asia a historic opportunity.
Kim Jong-un has not gained as strong a power as his father,
making it hard to carry on Kim Jong Il’s closed door policy.
US-based renowned scholar, Xie Xuanjun, also says,
Kim Jong Il’s death opens up a chance for North Korea.
[Xie Xuanjun]: “I think social change can almost definitely
happen in North Korea, the question is just when and how.
China and Russia are backing up the North Korean regime,
but both are opening-up more.
So North Korea may see more possibilities to head towards
opening up than when it was under the reign of Kim Jong-il."
The Chosun Ilbo gave a warning by quoting Professor
Yin Hong at Beijing-based China Renmin University.
Yin says that in the post-Kim era, North Korea will face
a major challenge.
Although the Korean peninsula’s unification looks
increasingly likely,
if without taking proper measures,
military conflicts might also be triggered.
The Chosun Ilbo gave a warning, by quoting Beijing-based
China Renmin University professor, Yin Hong.
Yin says in the post-Kim era,
North Korea will face a major challenge.
The Korean peninsula’s unification looks ever more likely,
yet without proper measures, military conflicts may also be triggered.
NTD reporters Chang Chun, Li Yuanhan and Sun Ning
