【新唐人2011年10月12日訊】現年85歲的江澤民將近兩年沒有在國內媒體露過面，10月9號亮相北京紀念辛亥革命大會，中共黨媒繼續低調處理，國內網民被禁止發表評論。海外媒體則紛紛聚焦江再度現身，以及對中共權力鬥爭的影響，也有外媒指出，胡錦濤很可能會效仿江，十八大後繼續執掌軍權。
當江澤民出席大會時，國內媒體記者紛紛爭取拍照，但對外發佈消息時則低調處理。而較為開放的《南方都市報》、《新京報》等報章，則用江與胡錦濤握手的照片，突顯江現身。
《新華網》、《人民日報》、《解放軍報》等中央級媒體，報導重點是胡錦濤關於辛亥革命的講話，用的是胡的頭像和主席臺全景照。
江的相貌與兩年前相比變化很大，氣色衰老，浮腫呆滯，步履蹣跚。部分網民質疑出現的是否替身「詐屍」，國內論壇則紛紛刪除相關評論，「江澤民」三個字在新浪微博成了搜索禁詞。
香港《動向》雜誌主編張偉國：「中共十八大前夕，中南海的高層權力鬥爭是一種白熱化的趨勢和跡象，原來的接班和幹部更替的安排受到了挑戰，以致於在重病中的江也不得不拋頭露面。」
《紐約時報》援引美國智庫布魯金斯學院桑頓中國中心研究部主任李成的話說，江澤民再度露面具有「高度政治性」，意義與江時期的前總理朱鎔基近期出版講話錄相似。
報導說，習近平取代李克強成為胡錦濤的繼任者，是得到江澤民的支持。但對最高權力的角逐肯定不會停止。一位與北京高層接觸緊密的人士說：「我聽到下一屆領導層排序的不同版本。」
香港《動向》雜誌去年披露北京高層的可靠消息，廣東省委書記汪洋是繼李克強之後，胡錦濤團派推舉的第二號總書記侯選人。
韓國最大的報紙《朝鮮日報》獲得消息，由於江澤民久違公眾場合，這期間關於他重病甚至死亡的傳聞不斷。江澤民9號出席活動，是習近平親自登門邀請說服的結果。
時事評論家草庵居士：「『七一』的時候或者『十一』的時候，江澤民出來很顯然就會對胡錦濤的地位有一個嚴重的衝擊，我相信胡錦濤是不願意讓江澤民出來的一個主要原因。像辛亥革命這次江澤民出來，它不是像黨的生日和國慶這麼重要。」
《紐約時報》說，中國下屆領導層最後確定很可能要到明年夏天方見分曉。北京在進行這些政治操作時非常謹慎，一些領導人包括習近平的近親家人被要求離開北京，確保不會干擾到中共的接班程序。
報導援引分析指出，胡錦濤似乎在選定接班人上加強他的影響力，如近來在省委書記大換班中，力挺他的盟友出任封疆大吏。他還積極提拔軍隊將領。胡錦濤很可能會效仿江澤民，繼續留任中央軍委主席兩年。
香港《爭鳴》雜誌也曾預測，十八大高度分權格局基本確立，總書記、國家主席、軍委主席「三位一體」不可能再出現。胡錦濤繼續留任軍委主席的體制將出現。
張偉國：「由於十八大的臨近和社會矛盾的尖銳化，尤其是官民矛盾的衝突越來越沒辦法調和，使得高層內部已經出現了分化，高層權力分化、分歧逐漸公開化的地步。」
《維基解密》近日公布美國外交電文披露，江澤民原本積極扶植長子江綿恆在政治上更上一層樓，但因江綿恆身患腎癌，於是江支持太子黨習近平，認為他會保護江家利益。
深圳學者朱健國對《蘋果日報》表示，江澤民、曾慶紅都主張「江山還是紅色後代坐可靠」；但胡錦濤強調選接班人「要搞五湖四海，任人唯賢」，反對紅色世襲。
香港時事評論員劉銳紹指出，中共政治人走茶涼，江澤民的影響力已經遠不如十六大與十七大時，一些官員依靠江澤民的影響力進入權力核心期望未必能如願。不過他認為，在中共體制下，難以清算江的罪行。
新唐人記者周玉林、李元翰、肖顏採訪報導。
Weak Jiang, and Hu Will Continue Military Control
85-year old Jiang Zemin has not made any public
appearances for nearly two years.
On October 9, he appeared at the 100th Anniversary of the
Xinhai Revolution Assembly.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) media continued
a low profile report on Jiang.
Netizens in China are forbidden to comment on Jiang’s
appearance. Overseas media focus on Jiang’s re-appearance
and its impact on CCP’s power struggles.
Some overseas media pointed out
that Hu Jintao is very likely to copy Jiang and continue
to control the military after the 18th CCP Congress.
When Jiang appeared, Chinese media were competing to take
photos, yet they only did low profile reports.
The relatively open media Southern Metropolis Daily
and The Beijing News published a photo of Jiang
shaking hands with Hu, to focus on Jiang’s re-appearance.
Reports from CCP central government’s media, such as
Xinhua.net, People’s Daily, and PLA Daily,
focused on Hu Jintao’s speech on the Xinhai Revolution,
using the picture of Hu’s front profile and the stage.
Jiang looked very different compared to two years ago.
He looked old, swollen, dull, and he faltered while walking.
Some netizens suspect it was a stand-in.
Related comments were all removed from China’s forums.
“Jiang Zemin” is a forbidden word on the internet.
Change Weikou (Editor-in-chief, HK’s Trend magazine):
“Before the CCP’s 18th Congress,
the power struggles of the central government have reached
a climax. The original power layout was challenged.
So Jiang had to appear even in a critical health condition.”
New York Times quoted Li Cheng, Dean of Brookings
Institution’s Thornton China Center, as saying
that Jiang’s re-appearance is “highly political,” similar to
to former Premier Zhu Rongji’s recent book and speech.
The report stated that Qi Jinping’s replacement of Hu Jintao
is supported by Jiang Zemin.
But the struggle for the highest power will not stop. One
insider with close contact to a Beijing high-level offical said:
“I have heard different versions of the new leadership circle.”
HK’s Trend Magazine revealed last year, that based on a
credible source from a Beijing high-level official,
General Secretary of Guangdong Province Wang Yang was
recommended by Hu as the second candidate
for CCP General Secretary, after Li Keqiang.
Korea’s largest newspaper, The Chosun Ilbo, got the news.
Since Jiang Zemin has not appeared in public for a long time,
many rumors spread around about him being
in a critical condition, and even dead.
Jiang’s participation in the assembly on October 9 is revealed
to be a persuasion from Xi Jinping, who went to visit him.
Cao-an (Political commentator): “If Jiang Zemin appeared
during July 1 or October 1,
it would obviously have an impact to Hu Jintao. I believe
Hu Jintao did not want Jiang to show up during those days.
The anniversary of the Xinhai Revolution is not as important
as the CCP and the Communist China’s birthday.”
New York Times stated the final names of new CCP leaders
might be finalized next summer.
Beijing is very cautious in handling those politically.
Some leaders, including Xi Jinping’s family members,
were asked to leave Beijing,
to ensure no interference in the succession process.
The report quoted an analyst who stated that Hu Jintao
is adding his influence to the choice of successors,
such as promoting his alliance during the recent party
secretary promotions. He also actively promoted generals
in the military. Hu Jintao is likely to copy Jiang and stay as
Chairman of the Central Military Committee for two years.
HK’s Chengming magazine also predicted that the layout
of the 18th CCP Congress has basically already been finalized.
Party Secretary, President and Chairman of the
Military Committee will not be the same person any more.
Hu Jintao will stay as Chairman of the Military Committee.
Chang Weikou: “Due to the upcoming 18th CCP Congress
and the intensifying social conflicts,
especially conflicts between the officials and the people,
cannot be reconciled,
high-level officials have separated,
and their conflicts are gradually becoming widely known.”
Wikileaks recently revealed a U.S. diplomatic message,
saying Jiang Zemin originally supported his eldest son
Jiang Mianheng to set up, but he had kidney cancer.
So Jiang supported Xi Jinping, descendant of a high-ranking
CCP leader, hoping he will protect the Jiang family.
Shenzhen scholar, Zhu Jianguo, told Apple Daily that both
Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong support CCP leaders’ descendants to take the leadership role, but Hu Jintao emphasizes to nominate those with talents, and opposes the passing down of positions to descendants
of CCP leaders.
HK commentator Liu Ruishao pointed out that those who left
their positions do not have impact in CCP’s political system.
Jiang Zemin’s influence is far from what it was before.
Some officials’ wish to enter the power circle
by using Jiang’s influence, but this did not eventuate.
Liu believes it is difficult to bring Jiang
to justice for his crimes, under the CCP’s rule.
NTD reporters Zhou Yulin, Li Yuanhan and Xiao Yan
