【新唐人2011年10月12日讯】现年85岁的江泽民将近两年没有在国内媒体露过面，10月9号亮相北京纪念辛亥革命大会，中共党媒继续低调处理，国内网民被禁止发表评论。海外媒体则纷纷聚焦江再度现身，以及对中共权力斗争的影响，也有外媒指出，胡锦涛很可能会效仿江，十八大后继续执掌军权。
当江泽民出席大会时，国内媒体记者纷纷争取拍照，但对外发布消息时则低调处理。而较为开放的《南方都市报》、《新京报》等报章，则用江与胡锦涛握手的照片，突显江现身。
《新华网》、《人民日报》、《解放军报》等中央级媒体，报导重点是胡锦涛关于辛亥革命的讲话，用的是胡的头像和主席台全景照。
江的相貌与两年前相比变化很大，气色衰老，浮肿呆滞，步履蹒跚。部分网民质疑出现的是否替身“诈尸”，国内论坛则纷纷删除相关评论，“江泽民”三个字在新浪微博成了搜索禁词。
香港《动向》杂志主编张伟国：“中共十八大前夕，中南海的高层权力斗争是一种白热化的趋势和迹象，原来的接班和干部更替的安排受到了挑战，以致于在重病中的江也不得不抛头露面。”
《纽约时报》援引美国智库布鲁金斯学院桑顿中国中心研究部主任李成的话说，江泽民再度露面具有“高度政治性”，意义与江时期的前总理朱镕基近期出版讲话录相似。
报导说，习近平取代李克强成为胡锦涛的继任者，是得到江泽民的支持。但对最高权力的角逐肯定不会停止。一位与北京高层接触紧密的人士说：“我听到下一届领导层排序的不同版本。”
香港《动向》杂志去年披露北京高层的可靠消息，广东省委书记汪洋是继李克强之后，胡锦涛团派推举的第二号总书记侯选人。
韩国最大的报纸《朝鲜日报》获得消息，由于江泽民久违公众场合，这期间关于他重病甚至死亡的传闻不断。江泽民9号出席活动，是习近平亲自登门邀请说服的结果。
时事评论家草庵居士：“‘七一’的时候或者‘十一’的时候，江泽民出来很显然就会对胡锦涛的地位有一个严重的冲击，我相信胡锦涛是不愿意让江泽民出来的一个主要原因。像辛亥革命这次江泽民出来，它不是像党的生日和国庆这么重要。”
《纽约时报》说，中国下届领导层最后确定很可能要到明年夏天方见分晓。北京在进行这些政治操作时非常谨慎，一些领导人包括习近平的近亲家人被要求离开北京，确保不会干扰到中共的接班程序。
报导援引分析指出，胡锦涛似乎在选定接班人上加强他的影响力，如近来在省委书记大换班中，力挺他的盟友出任封疆大吏。他还积极提拔军队将领。胡锦涛很可能会效仿江泽民，继续留任中央军委主席两年。
香港《争鸣》杂志也曾预测，十八大高度分权格局基本确立，总书记、国家主席、军委主席“三位一体”不可能再出现。胡锦涛继续留任军委主席的体制将出现。
张伟国：“由于十八大的临近和社会矛盾的尖锐化，尤其是官民矛盾的冲突越来越没办法调和，使得高层内部已经出现了分化，高层权力分化、分歧逐渐公开化的地步。”
《维基解密》近日公布美国外交电文披露，江泽民原本积极扶植长子江绵恒在政治上更上一层楼，但因江绵恒身患肾癌，于是江支持太子党习近平，认为他会保护江家利益。
深圳学者朱健国对《苹果日报》表示，江泽民、曾庆红都主张“江山还是红色后代坐可靠”；但胡锦涛强调选接班人“要搞五湖四海，任人唯贤”，反对红色世袭。
香港时事评论员刘锐绍指出，中共政治人走茶凉，江泽民的影响力已经远不如十六大与十七大时，一些官员依靠江泽民的影响力进入权力核心期望未必能如愿。不过他认为，在中共体制下，难以清算江的罪行。
新唐人记者周玉林、李元翰、肖颜采访报导。
Weak Jiang, and Hu Will Continue Military Control
85-year old Jiang Zemin has not made any public
appearances for nearly two years.
On October 9, he appeared at the 100th Anniversary of the
Xinhai Revolution Assembly.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) media continued
a low profile report on Jiang.
Netizens in China are forbidden to comment on Jiang’s
appearance. Overseas media focus on Jiang’s re-appearance
and its impact on CCP’s power struggles.
Some overseas media pointed out
that Hu Jintao is very likely to copy Jiang and continue
to control the military after the 18th CCP Congress.
When Jiang appeared, Chinese media were competing to take
photos, yet they only did low profile reports.
The relatively open media Southern Metropolis Daily
and The Beijing News published a photo of Jiang
shaking hands with Hu, to focus on Jiang’s re-appearance.
Reports from CCP central government’s media, such as
Xinhua.net, People’s Daily, and PLA Daily,
focused on Hu Jintao’s speech on the Xinhai Revolution,
using the picture of Hu’s front profile and the stage.
Jiang looked very different compared to two years ago.
He looked old, swollen, dull, and he faltered while walking.
Some netizens suspect it was a stand-in.
Related comments were all removed from China’s forums.
“Jiang Zemin” is a forbidden word on the internet.
Change Weikou (Editor-in-chief, HK’s Trend magazine):
“Before the CCP’s 18th Congress,
the power struggles of the central government have reached
a climax. The original power layout was challenged.
So Jiang had to appear even in a critical health condition.”
New York Times quoted Li Cheng, Dean of Brookings
Institution’s Thornton China Center, as saying
that Jiang’s re-appearance is “highly political,” similar to
to former Premier Zhu Rongji’s recent book and speech.
The report stated that Qi Jinping’s replacement of Hu Jintao
is supported by Jiang Zemin.
But the struggle for the highest power will not stop. One
insider with close contact to a Beijing high-level offical said:
“I have heard different versions of the new leadership circle.”
HK’s Trend Magazine revealed last year, that based on a
credible source from a Beijing high-level official,
General Secretary of Guangdong Province Wang Yang was
recommended by Hu as the second candidate
for CCP General Secretary, after Li Keqiang.
Korea’s largest newspaper, The Chosun Ilbo, got the news.
Since Jiang Zemin has not appeared in public for a long time,
many rumors spread around about him being
in a critical condition, and even dead.
Jiang’s participation in the assembly on October 9 is revealed
to be a persuasion from Xi Jinping, who went to visit him.
Cao-an (Political commentator): “If Jiang Zemin appeared
during July 1 or October 1,
it would obviously have an impact to Hu Jintao. I believe
Hu Jintao did not want Jiang to show up during those days.
The anniversary of the Xinhai Revolution is not as important
as the CCP and the Communist China’s birthday.”
New York Times stated the final names of new CCP leaders
might be finalized next summer.
Beijing is very cautious in handling those politically.
Some leaders, including Xi Jinping’s family members,
were asked to leave Beijing,
to ensure no interference in the succession process.
The report quoted an analyst who stated that Hu Jintao
is adding his influence to the choice of successors,
such as promoting his alliance during the recent party
secretary promotions. He also actively promoted generals
in the military. Hu Jintao is likely to copy Jiang and stay as
Chairman of the Central Military Committee for two years.
HK’s Chengming magazine also predicted that the layout
of the 18th CCP Congress has basically already been finalized.
Party Secretary, President and Chairman of the
Military Committee will not be the same person any more.
Hu Jintao will stay as Chairman of the Military Committee.
Chang Weikou: “Due to the upcoming 18th CCP Congress
and the intensifying social conflicts,
especially conflicts between the officials and the people,
cannot be reconciled,
high-level officials have separated,
and their conflicts are gradually becoming widely known.”
Wikileaks recently revealed a U.S. diplomatic message,
saying Jiang Zemin originally supported his eldest son
Jiang Mianheng to set up, but he had kidney cancer.
So Jiang supported Xi Jinping, descendant of a high-ranking
CCP leader, hoping he will protect the Jiang family.
Shenzhen scholar, Zhu Jianguo, told Apple Daily that both
Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong support CCP leaders’ descendants to take the leadership role, but Hu Jintao emphasizes to nominate those with talents, and opposes the passing down of positions to descendants
of CCP leaders.
HK commentator Liu Ruishao pointed out that those who left
their positions do not have impact in CCP’s political system.
Jiang Zemin’s influence is far from what it was before.
Some officials’ wish to enter the power circle
by using Jiang’s influence, but this did not eventuate.
Liu believes it is difficult to bring Jiang
to justice for his crimes, under the CCP’s rule.
NTD reporters Zhou Yulin, Li Yuanhan and Xiao Yan
