【新唐人2013年12月12日訊】朝鮮「攝政王」、最高領導人金正恩的姑父張成澤遭到整肅，外界普遍認為，張成澤被免職，可能會加劇朝鮮的不穩定局勢。有消息說，中共瀋陽軍區第39集團軍3000多名士兵，12月5號在與朝鮮接壤的長白山一帶移動。那麼，朝鮮政局動盪，和中共有甚麼關聯呢？請隨我們一起來看看。
曾經是朝鮮第二號領導人的張成澤，一向被認為是金正恩能順利接班的重要支柱，因為有張成澤的背書和協助，金正恩才能獲得老臣和軍方的支持，坐在最高領導人的位子。
而12月8號，金正恩在平壤主持了勞動黨中央政治局擴大會議，會議宣佈解除張成澤的一切職務、剝奪一切頭銜，並開除黨籍。
此外，朝鮮電視臺還極其罕見的公開播放張成澤遭到逮捕的畫面。
韓國首爾《自由朝鮮廣播電臺》援引平壤高層的消息來源報導說，張成澤及6名親信在5號已被處決，媒體公布的鏡頭是在8號之前拍攝的。但韓國國家情報院和統一部表示，不清楚媒體報導的處決事件。
李天笑：「實際上金正恩他一直是在中共的扶持下，所以說他雙方的關係就是一種默契，金正恩在某些方面會給中共一種暗示，實際也得到中共的首肯。」
可是，韓國《朝鮮日報》9號報導，中共瀋陽軍區第39集團軍3000多名士兵，四天前，在中國邊境長白山一帶移動。韓媒認為，瀋陽軍區是距離朝鮮半島最近的大軍區，可能是中共為應對朝鮮的突變事態。
那麼，朝鮮的政局動盪，和中共又有甚麼關係呢？
時事評論員林子旭：「朝鮮出事兒，中共必然是要緊張的，現在朝鮮的統治和中共一樣非常脆弱，張成澤在朝鮮經營了這麼多年，人脈頗深，動張成澤連帶著不知道要動多少人，這樣朝鮮政權就很有可能出現大的動盪，稍有不慎金家政權就會垮掉，朝鮮因此很有可能會走向民主，就這一點是中共最不願意看到的。」
時事評論員林子旭指出，如果中國老百姓覺得連朝鮮都拋棄共產黨了，那中國為甚麼不能﹖這種示範效應的力量對中共來講是非常可怕的。
美國《紐約時報》的報導也認為，自朝鮮戰爭以來，中共與朝鮮一直是盟友，中共最擔心的事情是朝鮮倒臺，因為這可能導致朝鮮半島在與美國結盟的韓國的領導下實現統一。
《紐約時報》評論朝鮮的權力鬥爭，讓北京緊張。「北京大學」國際關係教授、朝鮮問題專家朱鋒對《紐時》表示，中國把改革朝鮮經濟的希望，寄託在張成澤身上。而張成澤可能在「放權」的行動上走得太遠，威脅到了金正恩的地位。
報導說，張成澤還有一項罪名是廉價變賣國家資源。而這條指控似乎是直接針對中國，因為中國是朝鮮鐵礦石及其他礦產的最大買主。金正恩掌權後不久，就抱怨朝鮮出售的資源售價過低，並要求朝鮮的中朝合資企業以更高的價格出口礦物、稀土和煤炭。
而中國媒體對金正恩的抱怨進行了廣泛報導，中國礦業經營者對此也感到憤怒，其中幾人還放棄了他們在朝鮮的業務。
還有評論認為，隨著金正恩重組朝鮮政府高層，軍方可能會成為贏家，軍方的力量會變得愈加強大，而強硬派也變得更加強硬。
今年2月，金正恩批准朝鮮進行了第三次核試驗，公然藐視中共。
美國的朝鮮問題專家羅傑•卡瓦佐斯(Roger Cavazos)對《紐約時報》指出，中共擔心的另一個問題是﹕金正恩是否會進行另一場核試驗﹖
卡瓦佐斯曾任美軍情報官員，他說：「中國學者擔心金正恩越來越不受控制」，「與我談過話的每個中國人都擔心金正恩不久就會進行核試驗。」而「朝鮮的每一次核試驗都讓中國處境難堪」。
報導強調，張成澤被整肅，在加劇朝鮮局勢不穩定的同時，中國與日本、韓國的緊張氛圍也在增加。
採訪編輯/常春 後製/孫寧
The Busy Communist Neighbors: One Purges And The Other Drills
Jang Song-thaek, the regent and uncle of North Korean
leader Kim Jong-un, was recently purged.
Jang’s dismissal was believed to have likely exacerbated
instability in North Korea.
Sources said that on the 5th more than 3,000 Chinese
soldiers of the 39th Group Army in the Shenyang Military
Region were moving along the North Korean border
in the Mt. Baekdu region.
Is there any relation between these two Communist regimes’
activities? Please take a look with us.
Jang Song-thaek was North Korea’s strong right arm.
He had always been considered the mainstay
of Kim Jong-un’s smooth succession.
Because of Jang’s endorsement and assistance,
Kim Jong-un grew into his leadership role.
However, at the Pyongyang Workers’ Party politburo
assembly on December 8, which Kim Jong-un presided over,
Jang Song-thaek was stripped of all posts, titles
and party membership.
North Korean television also aired rare images
of Jang Song-thaek’s public arrest.
Free North Korea Radio said that Jang and his six aides
had actually been executed on December 5, four days
before the reported special meeting of the Political Bureau,
according to official Pyongyang sources.
But South Korea’s National Intelligence Service and the
Unification Ministry did not confirm Jang’s execution.
Li Tianxiao, commentator: “Kim Jong-un has in fact
been supported by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
There is a tacit understanding between the two sides.
Kim Jong-un will give a hint to the CCP in some way
and he has the CCP’s endorsement."
However, on the 9th South Korea’s media, Chosun Ilbo,
reported that the 39th Group Army in the Shenyang Military
Region has mobilized more than 3,000 PLA soldiers along
the North Korean border in the Mt. Baekdu region
on the 5th.
The Korean media believed that, as the Shenyang Military
Region is the closest to the North Korean border,
it is tasked with preparing for a crisis situation
on the geographically proximal Korean Peninsula.
So, what does the turmoil in North Korea have to do
with the CCP?
Lin Zixu, commentator: “Any incident in North Korea
will stir the CCP.
Both Communist regimes are very fragile.
Jang Song-thaek had a deep and wide connection to NK.
His downfall is surely affecting many others.
A big upheaval is therefore likely to occur.
The slightest mistake will topple Kim’s regime,
and NK might turn towards democracy.
That’s what the CCP fears the most."
Commentator Lin Zixu points out that consequently,
the Chinese will realize abandoning the CCP is also doable.
This possible domino effect of NK turning into a democracy
frightens the CCP.
The New York Times also reported that “an overriding fear
of China’s is the collapse of the government in North Korea,
an ally dating back to the Korean War, which could lead
to the reunification of the Korean Peninsula under
a government in South Korea allied with the United States.”
New York Times quoted Zhu Feng, professor of international
relations at Peking University, and a North Korean specialist,
who said that Jang is the man China counted on to move
North Korea’s economy, and “It’s possible Jang went too far
in decentralizing and that threatened Kim Jong-un’s position.”
“Among the crimes that Mr. Jang was said to have committed
was selling resources cheaply, an accusation that appears
to have been aimed directly at China, the biggest buyer
of North Korea’s iron ore and minerals,” reported
the New York Times article.
The article also revealed that, shortly after taking power,
Mr. Kim disapproved of the fact “that North Korea’s
resources, one of its few sources of outside income,
were being sold too cheaply.”
“He demanded higher prices for minerals, rare earths
and coal, exported by the growing number of joint ventures
between China and North Korea,” said the New York Times.
The New York Times article said, “Mr. Kim’s complaints
were widely reported in China and angered
bargain-conscious Chinese mine operators, several
of whom abandoned their North Korean operations.”
The report also quoted expert Cai Jian as saying that as Kim
“rearranges the top echelon of the government, it is possible
that the military will emerge the winner.”
In all likelihood, “the military forces will become stronger”
and the “hard-liners will become more hard-line.”
Against the CCP’s wishes, Kim carried out the country’s
third nuclear test in February, said the Times.
According to the NY Times expert Roger Cavazos,
“another concern for China is the question of whether
Mr. Kim will conduct a new nuclear test.”
“Every Chinese I have spoken with were worried that
Kim Jong-un would test soon,” Mr. Cavazos, a former
United States Army intelligence officer,
told the New York Times.
Mr. Cavazos in his New York Times interview, said that
Chinese academics were concerned that
Mr. Kim was getting “more and more out of control.”
He added, “Every nuclear test by North Korea puts China
in a bad position.”
The report stressed that Mr. Jang’s removal raises
the possibility of further instability in North Korea
at a time when China is already confronting increased
tensions with two of its other North Asian neighbors,
Japan and South Korea.
