【新唐人2011年10月17日讯】香港亲共媒体《中通社》援引北京外交专家分析，由于近期美国汇率法案等问题，导致中美冲突不断，两国高层往来很可能受到一定的影响，尤其是中共国家副主席习近平访美之行，如今“气氛堪忧，行程增变添数”。一些专家认为，习近平十八大继位前景难料。
美国国会参议院10月11号通过了施压人民币升值的汇率法案，引发中共当局强烈不满，随后人民币兑美元中间价连续3天贬值，被外界普遍视为是中方表达抗议的方式。
《中通社》分析，习近平何时访美，成为中美高层互动的一个悬念，如何应对美国对台军售、中美贸易摩擦、亚太话事权之争等议题，以及美国大选中可能升温的指责中共声音，都将考验中共领导人。
《中国事务》主编伍凡：“那不是习近平个人能控制的。尤其十八大最终有没有变动，甚至连他自己最后都被get out(出局)，都有可能，不知道的事情都会发生，或者今后2、3个月突然江泽民死了，情况又会发生变化。”
亲江系的《多维新闻网》13号报导说，8月初的“北戴河会议”作出决议，整个十八大人事安排方案由习近平总负责，并与胡锦涛商榷决定；江泽民也出席了“北戴河会议”，并作为最高顾问将被咨询全部人选。
香港《动向》杂志主编张伟国指出，这是江派释放的假消息。“北戴河会议”期间，正是江系太子党被江泽民死讯、赖昌星被引渡回国和温州动车惨剧搞得焦头烂额的时候。
张伟国：“很显然，这个就是江泽民、太子党他们放出来的，应该是不符合中共的政治运作的机制。这完全是虚张声势，他做的了总顾问、管的了这摊子事情的时候，他根本就不动声色，不用这么出来，辛辛苦苦的，这么大把年纪，拼着老命出来。”
江泽民9号强撑病体出席纪念辛亥革命百年大会，但却衰老呆滞，步履蹒跚、需要搀扶。韩国《朝鲜日报》获悉，江泽民当天出席活动，是习近平亲自登门邀请说服的结果。
台湾《中央社》10号报导说， 十八大之前，江泽民健康欠佳，习近平接班之势可能因此出现干扰。
张伟国：“问题是接班的权限，有多大的权限，能不能够像胡锦涛一样，国家主席、总书记、军委主席一起接，还是说要把这些权力分开来。”
中共十七届六中全会15号在北京召开。《博讯网》援引消息说，会议原本要讨论广东省委书记汪洋提出的“思想解放”，后来改换讨论文化体制改革。
《动向》杂志披露，汪洋是继李克强之后团派推举的第二号总书记侯选人。法国《费加罗报》形容汪洋是一位改革派人物，主张在经济与中国民众的生活中实施更加开放、更多自由、少些党的干预。
张伟国：“由汪洋代表胡锦涛这个政治体系团派，出来竞争第一把交椅，随着十八大的临近，也许他的动作还会更大。”
《动向》杂志指出，在中共高层中，习近平以老谋深算而著称。习近平正在展开新的反自由化运动，他选择的是以反右来增加自己的政治安全系数。
文章引述中共高层一位情治首长的话说：习近平“不是那种扛自由主义旗帜的人物，他绝对不会犯胡耀邦、赵紫阳那样的错误，这不是我个人的观点，是内部传达的精神”。
深圳学者朱健国：“从习近平的风格来看，他还是更接近于薄熙来的‘毛左’。如果习薄联盟再加上有军方的支持，那也可能来个翻天覆地的大倒退，全面回归‘毛左’，也有可能。”
美国《国家利益》刊物近期发表文章指出，在意识形态方面，习近平是个新“毛泽东”。习近平在处理外交事务方面是个狭隘民族主义者，而在处理国内问题时，更倾向动用警察来解决社会矛盾。
新唐人记者常春、李元翰、葛雷采访报导。
Xi Jinping’s Succession Is Questionable
Anchor:
Hong Kong-based media, China News Agency（CNA）,
a pro-Chinese Communist Party (CCP), media company
quoted a CCP foreign expert as saying
that the recent U.S. currency bill, among other issues,
has led to the current ongoing Sino-U.S conflicts.
This bill could impact high-level exchanges
between the two countries. including warranting a visit by
Vice President Xi Jinping to the U.S.
Experts are saying that Xi Jinping’s succession
in the 18th CCP Congress is questionable.
Reporter:
On October 11, the U.S. Senate passed a currency bill that
exerted pressure on China’s RMB appreciation, generating
a strong reaction from CCP authorities, which included
three consecutive days of a lowered central parity rate
of the RMB against the U.S. dollar.
This is widely seen as an act of protest on the CCP’s part.
CNA is saying that the timing of Xi Jinping’s visit to the U.S.
is a suspenseful event between top-level officials of both sides.
Other issues on the table will be U.S. arms sales to Taiwan,
Sino-U.S trade frictions, the ongoing power struggle
in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as criticizing the CCP in
the upcoming U.S. presidential election,
all of which will test the will of the CCP leaders.
Wu Fan, editor-in-chief of China’s Affairs magazine:
“It’s beyond Xi Jinping’s personal control,
as personnel changes are expected to occur
during the 18th CCP Congress.
Even Xi could lose his position.
Many unexpected things could happen.
Perhaps in the next two or three months, Jiang Zemin will
suddenly die, generating yet another tenuous situation."
On October 13, Dwnew.com, a pro-Jiang clique media,
reported that in early August, the CCP’s Beidaihe meeting
passed a resolution stating that Xi Jinping would be in charge
of the overall arrangements of the CCP’s 18th. Congress.
Yet, Xi has to discuss everything with Hu Jintao
before making any final decisions.
The report said that Jiang Zemin also attended the meeting,
and would be further consulted
as the top advisor out of a list of candidates.
Zhang Weiguo, editor-in-chief of the Hong Kong-based
Trend magazine points out that the information
released by Jiang’s clique is not true.
The timing of the Beidaihe meeting happened to coincide
with a time when the princelings of Jiang’s clique
were deeply troubled by the news of his death,
Lai Changxing’s extradition to China, and
the Wenzhou train crash tragedy.
Zhang Weiguo: “Obviously, this was released by
Jiang Zemin and the princelings of Jiang’s clique.
This ploy is against the CCP’s political operation mechanism,
and is entirely false bravado.
Jiang would do everything quietly if he could act as
the general counsel, taking overall charge.
He did not need to do things as he did, at such an old age,
trying desperately to show up and be counted.”
On October 9, Jiang Zemin attended the meeting of
the 1911 Chinese Revolution Centennial.
Jiang looked aging and dull, shuffling his feet with two people
supporting him as he walked.
South Korea’s Chosun Daily was informed that
Jiang was persuaded by Xi Jinping to attend the meeting.
On October 10, Taiwan-based Central News Agency
reported that prior to the 18th CCP Congress,
Jiang was suffering due to his poor health.
Xi Jinping’s succession may be uneasy.
Zhang Weiguo: “The focus is on the limit and extent of the authority of
the succession.
Is it the same as that of Hu Jintao,
who occupies the positions of president, general secretary,
and chairman of the Central Military Commission?
Or will these powers be separated and divided up."
On October 15, the CCP’s Sixth Plenary Session
of the 17th Central Committee was held in Beijing.
Boxun.com quoted sources as saying that during the meeting,
the “ideological emancipation” brought up by Wang Yang,
the CCP secretary of Guangdong, was to be discussed,
but the topic was changed to ‘cultural system reforms.’
Trend Magazine revealed that Wang Yang ranks second
in Hu’s side for general secretary, next to Li Keqiang.
The French newspaper, Le Figaro,
describes Wang Yang as a reformist figure
who advocates opening up and allowing greater freedom
and less interference by the CCP in the areas of economics
and civilian matters.
Zhang Weiguo: “Wang Yang represents the Youth League
clique led by Hu Jintao, competing for the top position.
As the 18th Congress meeting approaches,
he might be more active."
Trend magazine pointed out that top-level CCP official,
Xi Jinping, is known to be very wily.
Xi is launching a new anti-liberalization campaign.
Anti-rightist believe that Xi is trying to
secure his own political power.
The article quoted one CCP senior intelligence director
as saying that Xi Jinping “is not truly advocating liberalism.
He will definitely not commit the same mistake
as Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang.
This is not my personal view, but the spirit of
the meeting, which the public knows nothing about."
Shenzhen-based scholar, Zhu Jianguo:
“In terms of Xi Jinping’s personal style, he is closer to
the Mao-left, led by Bo Xilai.
If Xi and Bo becomes allies and gain the support of the military,
they would probably experience a major setback
or a comprehensive return to the Mao era.
It is also possible."
The U.S.-based magazine, The National Interest, recently
published an article pointing out that in ideological terms,
Xi Jinping is a new Mao Zedong.
Xi is a narrow-minded nationalist in dealing with foreign affairs.
He is more inclined to use the police to resolve social conflicts.
NTD reporters Chang Chun, Li Yuanhan and Ge Lei
