【新唐人2012年9月15日訊】目前距離先前預測的中共中央「十八大」召開的日期，只剩下大約一個月的時間，而被外界認為是中共下一代領導人的習近平「失蹤」多天，也開始引起國際金融市場的關注。
中國大陸經濟成長趨緩，經濟前景充滿了「不確定」，而中共領導班子換屆的「十八大」即將召開前，預定接班的準領導人習近平卻突然「失蹤」，中國政治和經濟的不確定性，成為國內外關注的焦點。
《德國之聲》報導，對於習近平健康狀況的謠言，北京方面沒有做出正面回應，這已經引起了全球金融市場的注意。里昂證券(CLSA)香港中國投資策略部負責人鄭名凱(Francis Cheung)，最近在香港出席一次專業會議時指出：人們都開始擔心習近平的下落。
而受到8月宏觀經濟數據表現不佳的影響，多家外資機構近來紛紛調降對於大陸的經濟成長預期，根據《路透社》對20家機構的調查預測，大陸第3季的GDP年增率將只有7.4％，連續第7季下滑，第4季的GDP則為7.6％，兩者都低於7月份的水準。
79年大陸「民主牆」創辦人之一蔡桂華：「經濟和政治的現象是必不可分的，哪個國家的首相領導人被謀殺了，或者是突發事件，政治事件的突發，都會影響到一個股市的上下大幅度波動，尤其對投資來說，經濟是上層領域裏面的基礎，他當然要對習近平那種狀態要去加以特別的關心，來正確判斷自己的投資。」
《紐約時報》14號報導，習近平的消失是因為政治局勢尚未穩定，中共高層「仍在鬥爭，還沒結束」。而不少中國資深官員一致認為，習近平是因為輕度心臟病或是中風，才會取消多項會晤活動。一名報社資深編輯也表示，他們打聽到的可靠消息是﹕習近平的心臟出了問題。
報導引述和中共中央辦公廳關係良好的政治分析家的消息指出，8月的「北戴河會議」，以及之前在北京召開的其他會議，「氣氛很糟糕，鬥得很兇」。
時事評論員夏小強：「在習近平失蹤之後，《路透社》立刻獨家報導了習近平與胡德平談話，透露自己將堅持改革、嚴懲薄熙來的消息。從這個角度來看，習近平的失蹤和江派勢力的動作密切相關。那麼，習近平如今透過媒體放風無恙，很有可能是在利用此消息在換取恢復和準備重新出現在公眾視野的時間。」
夏小強表示，中共高層圍繞習近平接班的爭鬥已經進入白熱化，戲劇性的場景隨時可能發生。
79年大陸「民主牆」創辦人之一蔡桂華：「隨著王立軍事態的發展，中國裏面很多見不得人的醜態事情都會暴露出來的，那麼像習近平他消失了，消失了甚麼原因，在這樣一個鐵幕籠罩下一個專制集團的內幕來說，就是很貓膩很蹊蹺，但是從我們外界分析來說，總之來說他好像是大事不妙。」
《紐約時報》的報導還說，兩名擔任大陸政府顧問的學者表示，習近平可能會在這個週末發表講話，也會按照預定計劃接任最高領導人。
而香港《蘋果日報》專欄作者李平評論指出，中共政治權力經由幕後鬥爭、並非經由民主選舉產生，(這也)決定了中共政治患上不治之症，不可能在陽光下運作。中共的政治制度一日不變，中共領導人的健康就一日不可能公開，一如他們的財產不可能公開。
採訪/常春 編輯/黃億美 後製/郭敬
World-wide Concern About China’s Political And Economic Problems
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will hold its 18th
Congress in less than a month.
Meanwhile, the disappearance of Xi Jinping for many days
has attracted not only world-wide concern but also the concern of the international financial markets.
Mainland China’s economic growth slow down exhibits
“uncertain" economic outlook.
The disappearance of Xi Jinping, the head of the next
leadership group, plus uncertain economic outlook has become the focus of attention at home and abroad.
“Deutsche Welle” reported that Beijing has not made
a statement regarding Xi Jinping or his health status.
It has resulted in the attention of the global financial markets.
Francis Cheung, CLSA (CLSA), Hong Kong,
China’s Ministry of Investment Strategy, pointed out that
at a recent professional conference in Hong Kong,
people began to worry about the whereabouts of Xi.
The macroeconomic data for August showed poor performance,
thus many foreign institutions have recently lowered expectations of Mainland’s economic growth.
According to a Reuters survey forecast of 20 institutions,
the Mainland’s 3rd quarter GDP annual growth will be only
7.4%, the 7th consecutive quarter of decline;
the fourth quarter GDP will be 7.6%.
Both are lower than the July level.
Cai Guihua, one of the founders of the “Democracy Wall"
in 1979: “Economic and political phenomena cannot be separated.
Unexpected events, such as an assassination of leaders
of a country, will cause a great stock market fluctuation.
Especially in the investment arena, the economy
is the basis of the upper level.
Of course, people will pay special attention to the news
of Xi Jinping to properly evaluate their own investment."
On the 14th, The New York Times reported that Xi Jinping’s
disappearance is caused by the unstable political situation and the power struggle within the high level CCP.
“Many senior Chinese officials agreed that Xi Jinping’s
disappearance and cancellation of important meetings was caused by a mild heart attack or stroke.
A senior editor of a newspaper also said that they learned from
reliable sources that Xi Jinping had a heart problem.
Analysts having a good relationship with the CCP Central
Committee pointed out that the atmosphere was bad
and the power struggle was severe during the August
Beidaihe meeting and other previously held meetings.
Current affairs commentator Xia Xiaoqiang: “After Xi Jinping
disappeared, Reuters immediately reported the conversation
between Xi Jinping and Hu Deping, in which he persisted
in ‘reform and severely punishment of Bo Xilai’.
From this perspective, Xi Jinping’s disappearance may
be closely related to Jiang’s faction.
Xi Jinping spreading of news of being unharmed through
the media is most likely conveying his recovery and preparing to re-appear.”
Xia Xiaoqiang said that the battle among senior officials
surrounding the Xi Jinping succession has been heating up and dramatic events could occur at any time.
Cai Guihua, one of founders of Democracy Wall in 1979:
“In Wang Lijun’s case, many ugly things have been exposed.
Now Xi Jinping disappeared, what is the reason?
The inside of an autocratic group under such an iron curtain
seems to be very tricky and very strange.
But from our outsider’s analysis, it is all bad news."
The New York Times report also said the two scholars
who work as consultants for the mainland government,
said Xi Jinping may give a speech this weekend and things
will proceed in accordance with the schedule.
Hong Kong’s Apple Daily columnist Li Ping commented that
the CCP’s behind-the-scenes power struggle is not a result of a democratic process.
The CCP suffers from a terminal illness and cannot operate
in the light of day.
If the CCP’s political system remains unchanged, the health
status of the Chinese Communist leaders will not be revealed, just like their personal assets.
