【新唐人2013年05月08日讯】来自刚刚闭幕的中国进出口商品交易会（广交会）数据显示，在这次“广交会”上，中国主要贸易伙伴的订单有所下滑，这是3月份出现贸易逆差后，中国面临的另一次贸易形势。在拉动中国经济“三驾马车”中，外贸这个龙头产业，经过前一段持续的停滞不前，真正开始了反向拉动。对于已经习惯于贸易顺差的中共，这种不同寻常的贸易逆差代表什么﹖请看专家解读。
“广交会”网站周日公布，本届交易会出口成交355亿4千万美元，同比下降1.4%。
其中，对日本和东盟的成交同比，分别下降了12.6%和6.5%。对欧盟和美国的成交同比分别下降了4.9%和0.5%。成交订单中，3个月以内的短单占48.6%，3-6个月的中单占35.1%。
大陆经济学家茅于轼：“因为外国有竞争，中国的劳动工资提高了，成本也提高了，像越南这些国家，他们就有优势了，有些订单转到他们那儿去了，这也是中国的必由之路，你不能老靠低的劳动成本来做生意，中国的劳动成本提高，在我看是好事，贸易是平衡最好，没有顺差，没有逆差，因为你要顺差，别的国家就是逆差。”
“北京师范大学”工商管理硕士（MBA）导师段绍译指出，如果偶然出现逆差是正常的，但是如果长期逆差下去，那就更不利了。
北京师范大学工商管理硕士导师段绍译：“订单下降一方面说明中国的出口优势在减少，第二方面，因为中国本来就不应该出口这么多东西，因为这汇率不是市场上的，而是因为人为的政府上的管制，才使汇率维持在一个固定的水平，使这个出口上表面上赚钱了，但实际上他没赚钱，是窃取了国内的廉价劳动力和资源，这种长期的出口增长不是一件好事。”
从中国海关公布的数据来看，中国出口额同比增速一直减缓，今年三月的贸易数据从1-2月份的23.6％放缓到10％，并出现了8亿8千万美元的贸易逆差。在拉动中国国民经济的“三驾马车”之中，外贸作为龙头，从延缓经济增长的节奏，演变成了实实在在的负拉动。
美国南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院教授谢田：“中国是以鼓励出口，廉价出口，以出口为导向来带动经济。实际上逆差的出现在中国是不太寻常的，中国基本上一直是享有顺差的，但是这个逆差的出现，就说明中国的出口市场继续萎缩。正常国家顺差和逆差基本上是交替进行的，不会长期的顺差或逆差，实际上中国长期的顺差给世界经济带来了许多的不公平。”
不过谢田也表示，中共不会容许贸易逆差的长期出现，很有可能用限制进口的方式，来减少贸易逆差。
谢田还指出，中国长期的贸易顺差已经造成了3万亿美元的外汇储备，而这些钱主要用来购买外国债券。
谢田：“中国3万亿美元的外汇储备，实际上不是像正常国家用来支付贸易逆差的，是中共在攫取掠夺人民的财富，把它转换到自己可以支配的财富，这样一个做法。”
有报导指称，中国3月份出现贸易逆差预示着内需回升。
谢田：“实际上内需部分，中国老百姓的购买力，中国人民的财富已经被中国的特权阶层搜刮得干净了，被中国的通货膨胀吃掉了，所以它的内需市场没有，基建投资泡沫即将破灭，而出口市场在衰退，所以中国经济一定是限于停顿之中。”
《美联社》4月10号报导说，3月份单月的出口增幅从前两月的23.6%滑落至10%。这可能会给中国共产党新一届领导人带来更多挑战。
而分析人士普遍认为，公布的数据还不够真实，怀疑企业谎报或政府篡改。
香港券商“灵狮控股”董事总经理蔺常念说，根据已知的香港船运量，出口涨幅可能低于官方公布的数据。蔺常念表示： 3月份的出口涨幅可能是2%或3%，而不是10%。
谢田也指出，中国的贸易伙伴经济都在衰退，中国不可能在三月份卖掉了这么多东西，谢田表示，真实数据披露出来的话，贸易逆差应该大的多。
采访编辑/刘惠 后制钟元
Orders Number Declined In Foreign Trade
The just-concluded China Import and Export Fair (Canton),
data showed orders declining from
China’s major trading partners.
It is another trade situation that China is facing after
the trade deficit in March.
In China’s economic troika, the foreign trade, as a leading
industry, pulled the economy backwards after some stagnation.
For the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) used to a trade surplus,
what does the trade deficit mean?
Let’s look at experts’ interpretation.
Canton Fair website announced on Sunday: “In this fair,
export turnover was 35.54 billion U.S. dollars, down 1.4%.
Year-on-year turnover with Japan and ASEAN
were down 12.6% and 6.5%, respectively.
Year-on-year turnover with the European Union and the
United States decreased by 4.9% and 0.5%, respectively.
In the turnover orders, short orders of three months accounted
for 48.6%, medium orders of 3-6 months accounted for 35.1%.”
Mainland economist Mao Yushi: “Because of foreign
competition, China’s labor wages increased, as well as costs.
Countries like Vietnam have the advantage.
Some orders went to them.
It is the only way for China, you can not always rely on
low labor costs to do business.
Cost in China increases, which I think is a good thing.
Trade balance is the best;
No surplus, or deficit, because if you have surplus,
other countries has a deficit."
Duan Shaoyi, advisor of MBA in Beijing Normal University
pointed out if there is deficit by chance, it is normal.
If the deficit is long term, it is more disadvantageous.
Duan Shaoyi: “The drop in number of orders shows
China’s export advantage is diminishing;
On the other hand, China should not export so many goods,
since the exchange rate is not based on the market.
It is an artificial control of the government,
which maintains the exchange rate at a fixed level.
So the export gains money on the surface,
but actually it doesn’t.
It is stealing the country’s cheap labor and resources.
Such long-term growth is not good."
Based on the data released by China Customs, China’s exports
year-on-year growth has been slowing down all the time.
The trade data for March this year was slowed to
10% from 23.6% in January and February.
it showed a trade deficit of U.S. $ 880 million.
Among the troika driving China’s national economy, foreign
trade is leading, slowing down economic growth to a negative.
Professor Xie Tian, in Business School of University of
South Carolina- Aiken: “China encourages cheap exports to boost the Chinese economy with export.
The emergence of the deficit is not common in China.
China has been enjoying a surplus, but the emergence of this
deficit shows that China’s export market continued to shrink.
Normally, surpluses and deficits will often appear alternately
in a country, and will not have long-term surplus or deficit.
China’s long-term surplus brought a number of unfair
situations to the world."
Xie Tian also said that the CCP will not allow long-term trade
deficit. It is likely to restrict imports to reduce the trade deficit.
Xie also pointed out that China’s long-term trade surplus
has caused US$ 3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves,
and the money generally used to buy foreign bonds.
Xie Tian: “China’s US $ 3 trillion foreign exchange reserve,
is not like a normal country to pay for the trade deficit.
It is the CCP seizing and plundering the wealth of people,
and converting it to the wealth that they can control. It is such a practice."
Reports said that China’s trade deficit in March indicates
that domestic demand had picked up.
Xie Tian: “The domestic demand,
the purchasing power of the Chinese people,
the Chinese people’s wealth had all been plundered
by China’s privileged class, consumed by China’s inflation,
so the domestic market does not exist.
The infrastructure investment bubble is about to burst,
while export markets are in recession.
China’s economy must be in a standstill."
On April 10th Associated Press reported that in March,
single-month export growth slipped to 10% from 23.6%
in the previous two months.
It may bring more challenges for the new CCP leaders.
Analysts generally believe the data released is not that honest.
They suspect business misrepresentation or CCP tampering.
Managing Director Lin Changnian of the Greyhound Holdings,
a brokerage in Hong Kong said that based on the known amount
of shipping, the export growth may be lower than the official data.
Lin said, in March, exports may rise 2% or 3%, instead of 10%.
Xie also pointed out that China’s trading partners
are all in recession, so China cannot sell so much in March.
Xie Tian said that if the real data was disclosed,
the trade deficit should be much larger.
