【新唐人2012年11月14日讯】1986年9月，台湾“民主进步党”在台北宣布成立，当时的中华民国总统蒋经国不但没有镇压，而且默许它的存在。反对党的成立，被视为台湾民主转型的开端。而有评论认为，那些主张中国共产党渐进改革的人士，实际上是将中国的“民主转型”推迟到了无限期的未来。今天，中国是否已经走到了应该超越含糊不清的所谓“政治体制改革”，而明确要求“民主转型”时机呢?请看以下的分析报导。
在中共当局看来，社会主义的经济制度、政治制度是不能改的，能改的只是某些方式、方法，所以，他们使用了“经济体制改革”和“政治体制改革”来表述体制转型。
旅美法律学者王天成，12号在“英国广播公司（BBC）”的“点评中国”栏目发表文章，他认为，“快速的经济增长至今是共产党统治的最重要的合法性来源，但是每年两位数增长的好时光似乎已经一去不返。人们有一种强烈的担忧，中国的经济危机正在来临。”而“民间要求对政改的期盼、呼声比以往任何时候都高”。
王天成指出，判断中国民主变革的关键是看能否实现结社自由，允许独立政党存在。而“一个明显的道理是，如果连开放党禁、和全国大选的要求都不提出来，那些重大的变革更加不可能发生。由于不要求尽快开放党禁、和全国大选，他们所主张的渐进主义，实际上将民主转型推迟到了无限期的未来。”
旅美中国民运人士沈源﹕“还是在那里希望，寄希望于中共里面有明智人物出来，推动一个自上而下的政治改革，胡锦涛的这次政治报告，就给我们打消了这个东西。开放党禁以后，就会有各种思想，就会蓬勃的发展起来，最终就凝聚在民主自由这一重心上面。”
政论家、《中国事务》杂志总编伍凡也对《新唐人》表示，共产党灭亡是必然的，会有一个新的力量取代它。
《中国事务》杂志总编伍凡﹕“如果它（中共）开放党禁、报禁，一下子我看成百上千的组织都可以出来，因为各阶层都有自己的诉求，各个阶层就有它的组织，实际上中国已经有反对派，不过不允许公开活动。看看俄国、东欧，这些经历过共产主义统治的国家，不都是有新的力量来代替吗?”
那么，中国为什么不可以呢?
沈源﹕“每个人都知道这三个东西——（开放）党禁、报禁、民主选举，它是不可能（在中国）存在。一个数字——200个家族，掌握了中国的200个企业，你说这些人，他怎么能够说我们拱手把这些权力和财富交出来呢?他不可能的嘛!是他们所谓形成的太子党，这些红二代已经盘根错节在那里。”
王天成的评论还指出，“不存在替代性政党，正是一党专制造成的结果。”而“开放党禁是民主转型的起始阶段——自由化的核心”。可是，独掌权柄已经60多年的共产党，是否会和其他政党平等竞选呢﹖他呼吁中共“直面开放党禁的问题，而不是回避”。
伍凡﹕“因为共产党他们害怕他们的利益损害，特别是现在是权力和资本结合在一起，只有它今后把门打开了，他愿意说，我愿意开放报禁、党禁了，像蒋经国那样，国民党允许民进党生存，允许民进党发展，那么我们才讲说，共产党你真的改变了，要不然说，等你死了，别的党才能够出来竞争﹗”
一名读者反馈说，患有癌症晚期的中共不愿意动手术，害怕一动手术就一命呜呼，现在只是一个“拖”字而言。
而旅美中国民运人士沈源则表示，中国人民的前途就是﹕推翻共产党，解体共产党。
采访/田净 编辑/周平 后制/钟元
Transition to Democracy Instead of Political Reform
In September 1986 Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party
was founded in Taipei.
The Republic of China (ROC) President Chiang Ching-kuo,
did not repress the party, and acquiesced in its presence.
The establishment of an opposition party is regarded
as the beginning of democratic transition in Taiwan.
Experts think those who advocate gradual reform of CCP
(Chinese Communist Party) are in fact postponing China’s “democratic transition" indefinitely.
Should China go beyond the ambiguous “political reform,"
and explicitly require the “transition to democracy?”
CCP thinks the socialist economic and political systems
cannot change. Only some approaches can be changed.
Therefore they use the terms “Economic System Reform,”
and “Political System Reform” for system transition.
U.S.’ Law Scholar Wang Tiancheng published an article
on BBC’s Comment on China column on November 12.
He believes that, “The rapid economic growth so far
is the most important source of legitimacy of the CCP.
But the days of double-digit growth seem to have passed.
People have a strong concern that economic crisis is coming."
Furthermore, the Scholar states, that
“People’s voices for political reform are higher than ever."
Wang Tiancheng points out, the key indicator for democratic
change in China are freedom of association and pluralism.
“It is obvious that if political parties and national elections
are not allowed, significant change is unlikely to occur.
Those who advocate gradual reforms instead of permission
for political parties and national election actually postpone democratic transition to an indefinite future."
Shen Yuan, Pro-democracy activists, residing in the U.S.:
“They still hope some sensible people from the CCP would promote a top-down political reform.
Hu’s political report dispelled this hope.
Permitting political parties will promote vigorous thoughts,
and ultimately gather around democracy and freedom.”
Wu Fan, political analyst and China Affairs editor-in-chief,
told NTD, CCP will collapse and a new force will replace it.
Wu Fan: “If it (CCP) lifts its’ political parties and media ban,
all of a sudden thousands of organizations will show up, as each class has its own demands and organizations.
In fact, there are already opposition groups in China.
But they are not allowed to have public activities.
Ex-communist countries like Russia and the Eastern Bloc
all had new forces to replace them.”
Then why this cannot happen in China, people ask?
Shen Yuan: “Everyone knows of the three impossible things:
to lift the ban on political parties, media, and free elections.
China’s 200 enterprises are controlled by 200 families.
How would they hand over their power and wealth?
These are the so-called “princelings,”
who are deeply-rooted.”
Wang Tianchen also points out: “The issue that no party
can replace the CCP is the result of one-party dictatorship.”
“Lifting the ban on political parties is the beginning
of a democratic transition – the key to freedom.”
However, the CCP has ruled the country for over 60 years.
Will it compete fairly with other parties?
Wang appeals to the CCP,
to “Face the issue of lifting the bans.”
Wu Fan: “Because the CCP is afraid of losing its gains.
They combine power with profits.
We can see it changing in the future only after opening
the door and allowing political parties and freedom of speech.
Like what Jiang Ching-kuo did in Taiwan –
to allow the Democratic Progressive Party to develop.
Otherwise we have to wait until it dies.”
A reader commented that CCP is like a dying cancer’ patient,
who does not want to have an operation.
So it only wants to “prolong” its life.
Shen Yuan thinks, the Chinese people will have a future,
only if they overthrow and disintegrate the CCP.
